RealGM

It's the time of the year for threads like this so I thought hey, why not?

PER 36 numbers...using Ian's 15/16 numbers to be fair to him:

Smith: 14/9/1.8 Personal Fouls: 5.7 (Career average 4.8)
Mahinmi: 13/10/1.5 Personal Fouls: 4.4 (Career average 5.5)
Gortat: 12/12/0.9 Personal Fouls: 3.0 (Career average 3.0)


Order of fouling from best to worst in my opinion (feel free to disagree): Gortat, Smith, Mahinmi
Best at closeouts: Hard to say, all are bad at closing out on centers
Best at switching/PNR defense: Mahinmi, Gortat, Smith
Best at rim protection: Mahinmi, Gortat = Smith ?
Rebounding: Gortat, Mahinmi, Smith
Mid range shooting: Smith, Gortat, Mahinmi
3pt shooting: Smith, rest can't do this at all

If it were up to me...I think my starting lineup on day 1 would be Wall/Beal/Oubre/Porter/Smith.

My reasoning is I don't think the defensive drop off from Gortat to Smith is significant enough to give up the offensive advantages. We were bad defensively, but I don't think swapping Gortat for Mahinmi really makes us that much better defensively, and I don't think going to Smith makes us that much worse. I think our team defense is the biggest factor in how much we improve on that end, rather than the efforts of any one guy. Making the offense flow easier gives our guards more energy to add to the defense. Gortat basically doesn't have to be guarded at C, same with Mahinmi to a degree. As well, I think Smith lends himself best to the skillset of our other starters.

For the bench I really like Frazier/Kieff/Gortat as a backup unit.

Thoughts?

I actually really like Smith as our primary backup. i think thats why a Gortat trade makes so much sense closer to the deadline. We need to make sure Mahinmi looks healthy and we can wait until someones big goes down.

You just said so yourself he averages 6 fouls per 36. So no.

If were fine with giving up 120 pts a game then sure.

Dat2U wrote:If were fine with giving up 120 pts a game then sure.

Smith graded out as an average defender last year, but he also played out of position at the 4 a lot and that is where he was exposed.
Look at Olynyk, Speights, Frye, etc.
Smith is also a really smooth athlete, and looks good in transition running to the rim. When the game slows down, he seems a little out of sorts on offense. Have him sit at the 3 point line and take 3's. Last year was no fluke for his shooting, over the last 5 years he has shot 47% outside 16ft and 40% from 3. Play him 15 MPG, have him shoot 2-3 3's per game and watch him be a top 20 in RPM.

pcbothwel wrote:

Dat2U wrote:If were fine with giving up 120 pts a game then sure.

Smith graded out as an average defender last year, but he also played out of position at the 4 a lot and that is where he was exposed.
Look at Olynyk, Speights, Frye, etc.
Smith is also a really smooth athlete, and looks good in transition running to the rim. When the game slows down, he seems a little out of sorts on offense. Have him sit at the 3 point line and take 3's. Last year was no fluke for his shooting, over the last 5 years he has shot 47% outside 16ft and 40% from 3. Play him 15 MPG, have him shoot 2-3 3's per game and watch him be a top 20 in RPM.

Smith is horrible defensively at power forward and moderately horrible as a defensive center. The defensive numbers mean nothing to me when I'm watching him get shredded on defense. There's a reason he's been with so many teams. Now the addition of a 3-point shot could put him in that category of jumpshooting centers that don't defend. But if Mahinmi is healthy (good luck), he won't play.

pcbothwel wrote:

Dat2U wrote:If were fine with giving up 120 pts a game then sure.

Smith graded out as an average defender last year, but he also played out of position at the 4 a lot and that is where he was exposed.
Look at Olynyk, Speights, Frye, etc.
Smith is also a really smooth athlete, and looks good in transition running to the rim. When the game slows down, he seems a little out of sorts on offense. Have him sit at the 3 point line and take 3's. Last year was no fluke for his shooting, over the last 5 years he has shot 47% outside 16ft and 40% from 3. Play him 15 MPG, have him shoot 2-3 3's per game and watch him be a top 20 in RPM.

He would spread the floor, but he can't protect the rim if his life depended on him.

Do we have statistical evidence that he's awful at C when he plays with the starters? I hate him defensively at PF, much less so at center from what I've seen.

Basically the main question is how much better is Gortat defensively as compared to Jason? Slightly? Significantly?

My opinion is that in terms of shots directly in front of the rim, Jason isn't bad. I think he can handle guarding his own man alright unless its a stretch five. His real issue is you can't count on him much for help if you get beat, which is a big deal, but I think we should probably stop switching as much as we do defensively anyway.

Important to remember that we were bad defensively with marc and kieff anyway. I would argue a change in scheme would help significantly even with Jason at C

Dark Faze wrote:Do we have statistical evidence that he's awful at C when he plays with the starters? I hate him defensively at PF, much less so at center from what I've seen.

Basically the main question is how much better is Gortat defensively as compared to Jason? Slightly? Significantly?

My opinion is that in terms of shots directly in front of the rim, Jason isn't bad. I think he can handle guarding his own man alright unless its a stretch five. His real issue is you can't count on him much for help if you get beat, which is a big deal, but I think we should probably stop switching as much as we do defensively anyway.

Important to remember that we were bad defensively with marc and kieff anyway. I would argue a change in scheme would help significantly even with Jason at C

Smith doesnt have great BBIQ, which hurts him on defensive rotations. But he can guard most Centers quite well and most Centers have real problems with him from the perimeter and end to end as he hustles down the court and has no problem dunking on most people.
His negatives are obvious. He has trouble down low due to length and poor footwork... so just keep him shooting 3's.
I'll tell you right now, if you put Wall, Beal, Oubre, Otto, and Smith on the court... the opposing team better hope we are cold or they are shooting lights out, because that lineup gets up and down the court with great hustle and perimeter shooting.

the answer is no

no

pcbothwel wrote:

Dark Faze wrote:Do we have statistical evidence that he's awful at C when he plays with the starters? I hate him defensively at PF, much less so at center from what I've seen.

Basically the main question is how much better is Gortat defensively as compared to Jason? Slightly? Significantly?

My opinion is that in terms of shots directly in front of the rim, Jason isn't bad. I think he can handle guarding his own man alright unless its a stretch five. His real issue is you can't count on him much for help if you get beat, which is a big deal, but I think we should probably stop switching as much as we do defensively anyway.

Important to remember that we were bad defensively with marc and kieff anyway. I would argue a change in scheme would help significantly even with Jason at C

Smith doesnt have great BBIQ, which hurts him on defensive rotations. But he can guard most Centers quite well and most Centers have real problems with him from the perimeter and end to end as he hustles down the court and has no problem dunking on most people.
His negatives are obvious. He has trouble down low due to length and poor footwork... so just keep him shooting 3's.
I'll tell you right now, if you put Wall, Beal, Oubre, Otto, and Smith on the court... the opposing team better hope we are cold or they are shooting lights out, because that lineup gets up and down the court with great hustle and perimeter shooting.

My logic as well.

My issue with the Kieff/Gortat frontcourt is the defense still sucks except you get moments of not being able to do anything offensively either.

I look at the warriors and c'mon zaza is not worth much down low nor is he intimidating. Its made up for by the rest of the guys on the court.

Besides being a worse defender than Gortat in all areas, he doesn't finish well enough at the rim for our Wall/C P&R action to be effective.

PNR is completely dead bruh.

Nobody even rolls anymore, it's all pick and pop

http://www.82games.com/1617/1617WAS2.HTM

Comparing lineup #1: Wall Beal Porter Kieff Gortat
OFF: 1.15 DEF: 1.07

to

Lineup # 18: Wall Beal Oubre Porter Smith
OFF: 1.31 DEF: 1.05

BELIEVE

Dark Faze wrote:PNR is completely dead bruh.

Nobody even rolls anymore, it's all pick and pop

What? Not sure if srs, but we were one of the better PNR teams in the NBA last year in terms of frequency and effectiveness. PNR is still a very important action in today's NBA, especially given the increased usage of the mentioned Pick N Pop

http://stats.nba.com/teams/ball-handler/#!?sort=Time&dir=1

Mahinmi should be our starting Center next year. Yeah, he's overpaid, but so are Gortat and Smith. Mahinmi, if he stays healthy, could be one of the best defensive fives in the league. Gortat stays healthy, yes, but he definitely seemed to wear down over the course of last season. He'll be 34-years old in February - which is way over-the-hill in NBA terms. He won't be an iron man forever.

daSwami wrote:Mahinmi should be our starting Center next year. Yeah, he's overpaid, but so are Gortat and Smith. Mahinmi, if he stays healthy, could be one of the best defensive fives in the league. Gortat stays healthy, yes, but he definitely seemed to wear down over the course of last season. He'll be 34-years old in February - which is way over-the-hill in NBA terms. He won't be an iron man forever.

How is Gortat overpaid in current NBA? He has 91st highest contract in the league, 19th highest among centers. Damn, Mahinmi earned 4mio more than MG for his 31 games where he averaged 6ppg/5rpg/1spg/1bpg.

Even with his likely decline he'll still be one of the best available centers for this price. If not the best, considering his availability, contract and productivity.

krii wrote:

daSwami wrote:Mahinmi should be our starting Center next year. Yeah, he's overpaid, but so are Gortat and Smith. Mahinmi, if he stays healthy, could be one of the best defensive fives in the league. Gortat stays healthy, yes, but he definitely seemed to wear down over the course of last season. He'll be 34-years old in February - which is way over-the-hill in NBA terms. He won't be an iron man forever.

How is Gortat overpaid in current NBA? He has 91st highest contract in the league, 19th highest among centers. Damn, Mahinmi earned 4mio more than MG for his 31 games where he averaged 6ppg/5rpg/1spg/1bpg.

Even with his likely decline he'll still be one of the best available centers for this price. If not the best, considering his availability, contract and productivity.

I don't think Gortat is overpaid based on past production, and I don't think he's ever been overpaid, at least not seriously so. What's overpaid is the Wizards C position, and considering they have huge salary dedicated to PG, SG, and SF positions, their most likely hope for roster upgrades would come from a shuffling of players and salaries at PF and C. At least one of Mahinmi, Gortat, or Smith really has got to go.

No...backup, maybe