Wizards W-L Predictions for the 2017-18 season

[Coach76]

ESPN projects the Wizards win total to be 47.5 wins. Last year they won 49. I think the early season growing pains from the Cavs and Celtics put the Wizards closer to 51 or 52 wins.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/20225286/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season

What do you guys think?

[payitforward]

Coach, we usually do a win-loss prediction a little later in the year, which I think is probably preferable.

That said, I agree with you that ESPN is wrong. There is no way the Wizards will win 47.5 games this season.

But, I'm a little more worried about other teams' growing pains than you seem to be. Our bench especially isn't very tall or long, so if other teams start growing, no matter how painfully, that could hurt us.

[Wiltside]

Wiz fans, you've largely stood pat this offseason but improved your depth. With Cleveland and Boston making such drastic changes, the top of the East is there for the potential taking.

Biggest questions for you guys:
1. Will Gortat last the season in WAS?
2. Can the Wiz get anything from the bench?
3. Can Brooks keep Wall fresh down the stretch?
4. Will Grunfeld mortgage the future for the present?



We just finished our offseason review, article is here if you're interested: https://thefourpointplay.blog/2017/09/02/nba-wizards-season-preview/

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Wiz fans, you've largely stood pat this offseason but improved your depth. With Cleveland and Boston making such drastic changes, the top of the East is there for the potential taking.

Biggest questions for you guys:
1. Will Gortat last the season in WAS?
2. Can the Wiz get anything from the bench?
3. Can Brooks keep Wall fresh down the stretch?
4. Will Grunfeld mortgage the future for the present?



We just finished our offseason review, article is here if you're interested: https://thefourpointplay.blog/2017/09/02/nba-wizards-season-preview/

1. No. Gortat will be traded. Can't see anybody wanting Mahinmi. I think Marcin will be moved.

2. Yes. This year by default the bench will be better. Oubre should show significant improvement. Mahinmi if healthy for even 40 games should be solid. He could supplant Gortat. Meeks should be a solid contributor. I can't imagine Mike Scott will be worse defensively than Bogdanovic. Tim Frazier will be better than Jennings. If either of Santorasky or McClellan see action they will be solid. The bench won't be good but they should not be horrendous like last season.

3. Yes. Brooks won't burn out Wall like he did in the playoffs against Boston.

4. Are you kidding? Of course Grunfeld will do something for the short run that is in the long run detrimental . He Almost ALWAYS mortgages draft picks and does roster patch work for the short term.

That's never gonna change while EG is GM.




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[Dat2U]

Wiz fans, you've largely stood pat this offseason but improved your depth. With Cleveland and Boston making such drastic changes, the top of the East is there for the potential taking.

Biggest questions for you guys:
1. Will Gortat last the season in WAS?
2. Can the Wiz get anything from the bench?
3. Can Brooks keep Wall fresh down the stretch?
4. Will Grunfeld mortgage the future for the present?



We just finished our offseason review, article is here if you're interested: https://thefourpointplay.blog/2017/09/02/nba-wizards-season-preview/

1. No. Gortat will be traded. Can't see anybody wanting Mahinmi. I think Marcin will be moved.

2. Yes. This year by default the bench will be better. Oubre should show significant improvement. Mahinmi if healthy for even 40 games should be solid. He could supplant Gortat. Meeks should be a solid contributor. I can't imagine Mike Scott will be worse defensively than Bogdanovic. Tim Frazier will be better than Jennings. If either of Santorasky or McClellan see action they will be solid. The bench won't be good but they should not be horrendous like last season.

3. Yes. Brooks won't burn out Wall like he did in the playoffs against Boston.

4. Are you kidding? Of course Grunfeld will do something for the short run that is in the long run detrimental . He Almost ALWAYS mortgages draft picks and does roster patch work for the short term.

That's never gonna change while EG is GM.




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I think they'd deal Gortat if they felt confident enough in Mahinmi's health and level of play. Gortat is more of safety net at the moment. I bet E.G. would like to move on but probably feels he can't just yet.

[Sluggerface]

I'm high on Frazier, and I'm pegging Scott for a rebound season. Having 2 rotation players on the bench will be a big boon. I also think Beal has another level he can get to (I think there were times last season where Beal didn't realize how good he actually was as a player), and it seems Brooks thinks the same thing. The east also got worse.

All in all, think it's a good opportunity to get to 50 wins. Guys got to stay healthy though.

[Tricky_Kid]

If its up to Gortat he will stay, even if he will lose his spot.
That is my feeling about his willingness to retiring as Wizard. In many interview he told about Washington not only as a great team but from politics perspective he views himself as a polish ambassador in US capital.
I dunno how many polish fans are going on Wizards game and how it translates to $$$ but sometimes I wonder why MG wasn't traded earlier and wonder if there is something beyond basketball value that keeps him still in this team.
In dream scenario I would get rid of them two (with Mahnimi) but as many of You had said earlier it will be easier to trade Gortat than Mahnimi.

I am too optimistic about everything so I predict Wizards will be with better record than year before by one ^^

[J-Ves]

I like what the Wizards did this offseason, even if they were all low impact moves individually. Some combo of Scott, Meeks, Sloan, and Frazier will improve the bench from last years abysmal group.

Our core is still very young and very good, but generally were injury free last year, so I think we can expect more missed games from Wall, Beal and Porter. Can we expect improvement out of these three? I'm feeling homerish so I say yes.

Our front court is old and injury prone, so that is scary. Hopefully we get more out of Mahinmi this year.

Oubre, Sato, and Mac(assuming hes still on the team, they still have to cut one more player) are wild cards, but I'm optimistic. McCullough and Ochefu are non-factors until proven otherwise.

All in all, I like this team more than last years, so I'm going to go with 51 wins. Subject to change of course.

[dangermouse]

I'd prefer to make a prediction closer to the season, but, I think 53 wins.

Our first 10 or so games last season were dreadful. It didn't even look like we were a playoff team. But we finished with 49 sitting at 4th on the eastern playoff ladder.

That won't happen again this season. Wall is healthy and can prepare with the team. Our depth is marginally improved. I think that combined with just the natural chemistry that the team/coach fostered last season and into the playoffs, as well as our main competitors seemingly weaker teams (Cavs, Bos, Raps) is enough for another 4 wins, surely.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

If its up to Gortat he will stay, even if he will lose his spot.
That is my feeling about his willingness to retiring as Wizard. In many interview he told about Washington not only as a great team but from politics perspective he views himself as a polish ambassador in US capital.
I dunno how many polish fans are going on Wizards game and how it translates to $$$ but sometimes I wonder why MG wasn't traded earlier and wonder if there is something beyond basketball value that keeps him still in this team.
In dream scenario I would get rid of them two (with Mahnimi) but as many of You had said earlier it will be easier to trade Gortat than Mahnimi.

I am too optimistic about everything so I predict Wizards will be with better record than year before by one ^^

I hope Marcin knows how much he is appreciated and loved by many fans, myself included.

Gortat has been a man among boys for years. Last playoffs he battled Dwight Howard physically. Before Scott Brooks became coach that pick-and-roll was deadly with Gortat and Wall. He is a very good finisher, a good rebounder, and an excellent teammate. A lot of fans just love to hate on a player-- I think Gortat gets disrespected by most Wizard fans.

Gortat is my second favorite Wizard.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

48 wins

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[long suffrin' boulez fan]

48 wins

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42 wins

[Wizardspride]

54 wins

[payitforward]

Every other team in the East has improved, & we've gotten worse. But, it's all chance anyway, so I predict 62 wins.

(Can we do this thread for real when the season is closer?)

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Every other team in the East has improved, & we've gotten worse. But, it's all chance anyway, so I predict 62 wins.

(Can we do this thread for real when the season is closer?)

I think I'm gonna predict less wins by season start date. (44 or less)

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[Sluggerface]

Every other team in the East has improved, & we've gotten worse. But, it's all chance anyway, so I predict 62 wins.

(Can we do this thread for real when the season is closer?)

lol wut.

Toronto lost two rotation players. Pacers lost George. Atlanta lost Millsap. Chicago lost Butler.

That's 4 of last years playoff teams that got noticeably worse this offseason. Vegas is projecting an average of 35 wins for those 4 teams (including Toronto's massively overinflated O/U).

[montestewart]

I think I'll go with 47.5. There is bound to be one game where, in the midst of a tied up septendecuple overtime game the roof blows off during a rainstorm and the game is called. Things may change as the season approaches.

[Dat2U]

Every other team in the East has improved, & we've gotten worse. But, it's all chance anyway, so I predict 62 wins.

(Can we do this thread for real when the season is closer?)

Did every other team really improve? I don't know how you can see it that way. I know you think Cleveland won the Boston trade so Boston improved too? Did Cleveland get better immediately despite probably not having Isaiah Thomas for a good chunk of the season? Will they play Jae Crowder at PG?

Did Toronto improve in spite of losing Patrick Patterson, PJ Tucker & Cory Joseph and adding only CJ Miles? Did Indiana improve despite losing Paul George? How about Atlanta despite losing Paul Millsap & Dwight Howard? Will Chicago be better without Jimmy Butler and your boy Rajon Rondo? What about Detroit by swapping out both Marcus Morris & Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and only getting Avery Bradley back?

Milwaukee will be better with further development by Giannis Antetokounmpo & a full season of Khris Middleton. Jabari Parker may or may not help depending on his willingness to play D.

Charlotte looks to have improved simply by having Dwight Howard & Cody Zeller eat all of the C minutes. Still don't love the lack of offensive skill and shooting but they'll be formidable.

Philly has definitely improved but they are counting on two rookies not to mention the health of Joel Embiid. Everything would have to work out of them to make the playoffs but they'll be more competitive and I'd expect at least a respectable push towards the 8th seed this year.

Miami is a question mark to me. They had career years from journeyman in Dion Waiters & James Johnson. Are those guys capable of duplicating that level of play going forward? Justise Winslow is at a crossroads. Kelly Olynyk will be interesting for them but I don't think it moves the needle. Miami isn't as good as their run in the middle of last year and not as bad as they were at the beginning.

[Coach76]

Ben Standig and Jeff Garcia touched on this a bit on the latest Locked on Wizards:

https://audioboom.com/posts/6269280-locked-on-wizards-sept-4-spurs-and-wizards?t=0

I think talent wins in the end. Cleveland and Boston will probably stumble early. The 2010-11 Miami Heat were only a .500 team for the first quarter of that season before figuring things out.

1. Gortat will last the season. He is cheap, plus, no one is in the market for a non-All-Star center.
2. The bench doesn't need to provide much. They just need to not give up a ton of points. When the Wizards were on fire last season in January and February, the bench was merely average.
3. If Tim Frazier and Sato can give Brooks 15 minutes of solid PG play between them, Wall should be fresh.
4. Grunfeld has mortgage both the present and future by missing on the 2011 draft and 2016 free agency.

[payitforward]

Every other team in the East has improved, & we've gotten worse. But, it's all chance anyway, so I predict 62 wins.

(Can we do this thread for real when the season is closer?)

lol wut.

Toronto lost two rotation players. Pacers lost George. Atlanta lost Millsap. Chicago lost Butler.

That's 4 of last years playoff teams that got noticeably worse this offseason. Vegas is projecting an average of 35 wins for those 4 teams (including Toronto's massively overinflated O/U).

What does Johnny Vegas know about basketball?