The Ascension of Bradley Beal

[Coach76]

Saw this tweet tonight:

Read on Twitter

This isn't as silly a question as it seems at first glance. Beal should be the no. 1 option on offense. Is he now the team's best player?

[NatP4]

Otto is the best player, Beal is next.

[Coach76]

Otto is the best player, Beal is next.

You think Otto is better than Wall? How? Win shares?

[Meliorus]

1:5 assist to turnover ratio. Yes.

[Dat2U]

Otto is better at executing his specific role in the Wizards offense due to his efficiency & low TO numbers. Wall & Beal of course have much bigger roles offensively.

[dcstanley]

Otto isn't better than John and Brad because he isn't effective creating his own shot. Otto right now is primarily a catch and shoot player who really struggles when having to put the ball on the floor. He's demonstrated some post offense when matched up against smaller players but that is still a work in progress.

I'd say Beal is the best player on the team but his flaws become glaring when teams focus on him. He struggles against great defensive players in a way that is not becoming of elite talents. He becomes completely neutralized when someone with length is guarding him and usually coughs up the ball before even getting a shot attempt.

[Shanghai Kid]

What I would say to everyone is this..

We've seen the team go around 17-5 over a stretch where Wall averaged 25/10 and won player of the month.

Wall averaged 30/10 on 59% TS in a full 6 game playoff series.

I love Otto Porter. But people are living in a delusional reality to think that Porter will ever win player of the month or dominate a playoff series on a national stage.

Otto is amazing in his role though.

[tontoz]

Beals breakout was obvious to us last season but it might take awhile for the rest of the league to catch on.

If he keeps playing like this he should definitely make the all-star team.

[nate33]

Beals breakout was obvious to us last season but it might take awhile for the rest of the league to catch on.

If he keeps playing like this he should definitely make the all-star team.

I just looked at the numbers.

Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are definitely outplaying Beal and currently deserve the starting spot.

In the next tier is Beal, DeRozan and Wall.

In the tier after that is Oladipo and Fournier. Lowry has had a slow start but will presumably be in the mix by February. If Jalen Brown is considered a guard, he needs to be considered.

Overall, Beal is comfortably in that 3-5 range with a significant cushion over #6. Of that 6-8 tier, I think only Lowry has a shot at moving ahead of Beal. So Beal should definitely make it, health permitting.

[Ruzious]

Otto is better at executing his specific role in the Wizards offense due to his efficiency & low TO numbers. Wall & Beal of course have much bigger roles offensively.

That last sentence doesn't seem to factor in the advanced metrics group.

[payitforward]

Beals breakout was obvious to us last season but it might take awhile for the rest of the league to catch on.

If he keeps playing like this he should definitely make the all-star team.

I just looked at the numbers.

Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are definitely outplaying Beal and currently deserve the starting spot.

In the next tier is Beal, DeRozan and Wall.

In the tier after that is Oladipo and Fournier. Lowry has had a slow start but will presumably be in the mix by February. If Jalen Brown is considered a guard, he needs to be considered.

Overall, Beal is comfortably in that 3-5 range with a significant cushion over #6. Of that 6-8 tier, I think only Lowry has a shot at moving ahead of Beal. So Beal should definitely make it, health permitting.

I just looked as well; I'd say that Kyrie & Beal are neck & neck -- but Kemba Walker is a head in front of them.

I'm surprised that you think Lowry is having a slow start. I'd say he's having a terrific season so far. His points are down some, but so are his shots/FTAs. His TS% so far is the 2d best of his career. Now... he's not killing it at the level he did last season, but so far he's posting better numbers overall than Wall (who really did have a slow start).

As well, it seems to me you're leaving out a few guys who are playing at a very high level so far: Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, & Delon Wright. Dinwiddie, who was picked in R2/2014, is starting to look like a very nice surprise. Played well last year & better this year.

[nate33]

Beals breakout was obvious to us last season but it might take awhile for the rest of the league to catch on.

If he keeps playing like this he should definitely make the all-star team.

I just looked at the numbers.

Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are definitely outplaying Beal and currently deserve the starting spot.

In the next tier is Beal, DeRozan and Wall.

In the tier after that is Oladipo and Fournier. Lowry has had a slow start but will presumably be in the mix by February. If Jalen Brown is considered a guard, he needs to be considered.

Overall, Beal is comfortably in that 3-5 range with a significant cushion over #6. Of that 6-8 tier, I think only Lowry has a shot at moving ahead of Beal. So Beal should definitely make it, health permitting.

I just looked as well; I'd say that Kyrie & Beal are neck & neck -- but Kemba Walker is a head in front of them.

I'm surprised that you think Lowry is having a slow start. I'd say he's having a terrific season so far. His points are down some, but so are his shots/FTAs. His TS% so far is the 2d best of his career. Now... he's not killing it at the level he did last season, but so far he's posting better numbers overall than Wall (who really did have a slow start).

As well, it seems to me you're leaving out a few guys who are playing at a very high level so far: Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, & Delon Wright. Dinwiddie, who was picked in R2/2014, is starting to look like a very nice surprise. Played well last year & better this year.

C'mon, payitforward. I know you like efficiency stats, but total production and winning counts for something too.

Dinwiddie averages just 24 minutes a game on a team with a sub-.400 record. He's not going to make the All Star Game.

Wright is playing 21 minutes a night as a backup for Toronto and averages 7.6 points and 2.6 assists. Do you really think he deserves All Star consideration? Really?

Collison has been efficient, but he is averaging 12 points and 6.8 assists per game.

[payitforward]

Otto isn't better than John and Brad because he isn't effective creating his own shot. Otto right now is primarily a catch and shoot player who really struggles when having to put the ball on the floor...

I'd say that's pretty much nonsense. For starters, "really struggles" is a colossal overstatement. Yes, he's a dead-eye catch and shoot, but it's by no means all he does on offense at this point.

Plus, as I suppose one should expect by now, you make it seem like scoring is the only thing that matters in basketball. No.

I'd say Beal is the best player on the team but his flaws become glaring when teams focus on him. He struggles against great defensive players in a way that is not becoming of elite talents. He becomes completely neutralized when someone with length is guarding him and usually coughs up the ball before even getting a shot attempt.

Excuse me, & I don't mean to be disrespectful, but where do you get this crap?

It's all what you think you remember, right? From watching games with your eagle eye. & drawing conclusions from instances you saw. Right?

Have you noticed that Beal's defensive rebounds are way up? That his offensive rebounds are way up? That his FTAs are up? Nah... why bother looking at numbers when your eagle eye tells you how "glaring" his "flaws" are.

So... in transition to facts: Beal had a breakout year last year, finally justifying his draft position & his evident talents. &, this year, he is much better even than last year!! But... here's the thing: better tho he is, in fact his 3-pt. % is substantially down from last year. -- by 5 % points. That's not b/c of "great defenders" before whom he is "neutralized," btw. It's from missing 4 or 5 shots this year.

[payitforward]

I just looked at the numbers.

Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are definitely outplaying Beal and currently deserve the starting spot.

In the next tier is Beal, DeRozan and Wall.

In the tier after that is Oladipo and Fournier. Lowry has had a slow start but will presumably be in the mix by February. If Jalen Brown is considered a guard, he needs to be considered.

Overall, Beal is comfortably in that 3-5 range with a significant cushion over #6. Of that 6-8 tier, I think only Lowry has a shot at moving ahead of Beal. So Beal should definitely make it, health permitting.

I just looked as well; I'd say that Kyrie & Beal are neck & neck -- but Kemba Walker is a head in front of them.

I'm surprised that you think Lowry is having a slow start. I'd say he's having a terrific season so far. His points are down some, but so are his shots/FTAs. His TS% so far is the 2d best of his career. Now... he's not killing it at the level he did last season, but so far he's posting better numbers overall than Wall (who really did have a slow start).

As well, it seems to me you're leaving out a few guys who are playing at a very high level so far: Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, & Delon Wright. Dinwiddie, who was picked in R2/2014, is starting to look like a very nice surprise. Played well last year & better this year.

C'mon, payitforward. I know you like efficiency stats, but total production and winning counts for something too.

Dinwiddie averages just 24 minutes a game on a team with a sub-.400 record. He's not going to make the All Star Game.

Wright is playing 21 minutes a night as a backup for Toronto and averages 7.6 points and 2.6 assists. Do you really think he deserves All Star consideration? Really?

Collison has been efficient, but he is averaging 12 points and 6.8 assists per game.

Oh no... I don't think these guys are all star candidates; I spaced out on where your focus was. Sorry!

In the case of Dinwiddie, I'm just impressed what a good player he is for someone who's unknown. The kind of guy it's good to find. The Nets signed him last Dec. after he'd been cut by Detroit I think. It was a partially guaranteed contract! He's definitely making it look like an excellent decision.

[dcstanley]

Otto isn't better than John and Brad because he isn't effective creating his own shot. Otto right now is primarily a catch and shoot player who really struggles when having to put the ball on the floor...

I'd say that's pretty much nonsense. For starters, "really struggles" is a colossal overstatement. Yes, he's a dead-eye catch and shoot, but it's by no means all he does on offense at this point.

Plus, as I suppose one should expect by now, you make it seem like scoring is the only thing that matters in basketball. No.

I'd say Beal is the best player on the team but his flaws become glaring when teams focus on him. He struggles against great defensive players in a way that is not becoming of elite talents. He becomes completely neutralized when someone with length is guarding him and usually coughs up the ball before even getting a shot attempt.

Excuse me, & I don't mean to be disrespectful, but where do you get this crap?

It's all what you think you remember, right? From watching games with your eagle eye. & drawing conclusions from instances you saw. Right?

Have you noticed that Beal's defensive rebounds are way up? That his offensive rebounds are way up? That his FTAs are up? Nah... why bother looking at numbers when your eagle eye tells you how "glaring" his "flaws" are.

So... in transition to facts: Beal had a breakout year last year, finally justifying his draft position & his evident talents. &, this year, he is much better even than last year!! But... here's the thing: better tho he is, in fact his 3-pt. % is substantially down from last year. -- by 5 % points. That's not b/c of "great defenders" before whom he is "neutralized," btw. It's from missing 4 or 5 shots this year.

Have you been watching the games this year? If not, I'll refrain from further arguing. Otto is a great player and certainly a pleasant surprise but I just can't cosign the motion that he is better than Wall and Beal. Otto's efficiency is certainly valued (he's become automatic from beyond the arc) but that does not mean he is without flaws. He is not a reliable shot-creator at this point of his career. I never said he was only a catch and shoot player, he's a great cutter and finisher in the paint but he lacks the ball-handling skills, passing, and athleticism to drive and create.

I guess my post was a bit hyperbolic. Beal is my favorite player in the league and in my opinion only second to Harden in the ranks of shooting guards. However, it has been evident to me these last few games that teams are honing in on Beal. Beal was getting a number of different looks that I'm not sure he's accustomed to seeing and it seems to have rattled him. He's still scoring at a great clip but in the past two games alone he has 9 turnovers: most of them occurring after receiving double teams. He is an improved ball-handler but not great enough to maneuver in traffic. When I mentioned Beal struggling against great defensive players, I was specifically thinking of O.G Anunoby's length and aggressiveness causing Beal a great degree of difficulty.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Beals breakout was obvious to us last season but it might take awhile for the rest of the league to catch on.

If he keeps playing like this he should definitely make the all-star team.

I just looked at the numbers.

Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker are definitely outplaying Beal and currently deserve the starting spot.

In the next tier is Beal, DeRozan and Wall.

In the tier after that is Oladipo and Fournier. Lowry has had a slow start but will presumably be in the mix by February. If Jalen Brown is considered a guard, he needs to be considered.

Overall, Beal is comfortably in that 3-5 range with a significant cushion over #6. Of that 6-8 tier, I think only Lowry has a shot at moving ahead of Beal. So Beal should definitely make it, health permitting.

I just looked as well; I'd say that Kyrie & Beal are neck & neck -- but Kemba Walker is a head in front of them.

I'm surprised that you think Lowry is having a slow start. I'd say he's having a terrific season so far. His points are down some, but so are his shots/FTAs. His TS% so far is the 2d best of his career. Now... he's not killing it at the level he did last season, but so far he's posting better numbers overall than Wall (who really did have a slow start).

As well, it seems to me you're leaving out a few guys who are playing at a very high level so far: Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, & Delon Wright. Dinwiddie, who was picked in R2/2014, is starting to look like a very nice surprise. Played well last year & better this year.

I liked Delon Wright's Utah NCAA advanced metrics. Like Otto Porter, Wright had great statistical numbers.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/delon-wright-1.html

(Number one all time NCAA career box plus/minus. Extremely good field goal and efficiency.)

His NBA success is a little late but not a surprise.

I also liked Dinwiddie at Colorado. If I recall correctly he had a few triple doubles. That and I think the guys about 6' 6" at the point guard position.





.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I just looked as well; I'd say that Kyrie & Beal are neck & neck -- but Kemba Walker is a head in front of them.

I'm surprised that you think Lowry is having a slow start. I'd say he's having a terrific season so far. His points are down some, but so are his shots/FTAs. His TS% so far is the 2d best of his career. Now... he's not killing it at the level he did last season, but so far he's posting better numbers overall than Wall (who really did have a slow start).

As well, it seems to me you're leaving out a few guys who are playing at a very high level so far: Darren Collison, Spencer Dinwiddie, & Delon Wright. Dinwiddie, who was picked in R2/2014, is starting to look like a very nice surprise. Played well last year & better this year.

C'mon, payitforward. I know you like efficiency stats, but total production and winning counts for something too.

Dinwiddie averages just 24 minutes a game on a team with a sub-.400 record. He's not going to make the All Star Game.

Wright is playing 21 minutes a night as a backup for Toronto and averages 7.6 points and 2.6 assists. Do you really think he deserves All Star consideration? Really?

Collison has been efficient, but he is averaging 12 points and 6.8 assists per game.

Oh no... I don't think these guys are all star candidates; I spaced out on where your focus was. Sorry!

In the case of Dinwiddie, I'm just impressed what a good player he is for someone who's unknown. The kind of guy it's good to find. The Nets signed him last Dec. after he'd been cut by Detroit I think. It was a partially guaranteed contract! He's definitely making it look like an excellent decision.

I get frustrated because of Ernie Grunfeld. That kind of guy is not hard to find. We just have a GM that will never ever use a second round pick. We have some lazy ass scouting.

I noticed both of those guys when they were in college.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[tontoz]

I think Porter struggles with contact. He is pretty thin and I have noticed guys getting more physical with him lately and it seems to work at times.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Controversial post of the day:

Look at the statistics of Delon Wright per 36 minutes and compare those with John Wall per 36 minutes.

Consider points, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, and turnovers.

Wright has only played in 68 games over his career, but his win share suggests that he is capable of being a more than serviceable starter.



Sent from my Moto G (4) using RealGM mobile app

[nuposse04]

Otto isn't better than John and Brad because he isn't effective creating his own shot. Otto right now is primarily a catch and shoot player who really struggles when having to put the ball on the floor...

I'd say that's pretty much nonsense. For starters, "really struggles" is a colossal overstatement. Yes, he's a dead-eye catch and shoot, but it's by no means all he does on offense at this point.

Plus, as I suppose one should expect by now, you make it seem like scoring is the only thing that matters in basketball. No.

I'd say Beal is the best player on the team but his flaws become glaring when teams focus on him. He struggles against great defensive players in a way that is not becoming of elite talents. He becomes completely neutralized when someone with length is guarding him and usually coughs up the ball before even getting a shot attempt.

Excuse me, & I don't mean to be disrespectful, but where do you get this crap?

It's all what you think you remember, right? From watching games with your eagle eye. & drawing conclusions from instances you saw. Right?

Have you noticed that Beal's defensive rebounds are way up? That his offensive rebounds are way up? That his FTAs are up? Nah... why bother looking at numbers when your eagle eye tells you how "glaring" his "flaws" are.

So... in transition to facts: Beal had a breakout year last year, finally justifying his draft position & his evident talents. &, this year, he is much better even than last year!! But... here's the thing: better tho he is, in fact his 3-pt. % is substantially down from last year. -- by 5 % points. That's not b/c of "great defenders" before whom he is "neutralized," btw. It's from missing 4 or 5 shots this year.

Have you been watching the games this year? If not, I'll refrain from further arguing. Otto is a great player and certainly a pleasant surprise but I just can't cosign the motion that he is better than Wall and Beal. Otto's efficiency is certainly valued (he's become automatic from beyond the arc) but that does not mean he is without flaws. He is not a reliable shot-creator at this point of his career. I never said he was only a catch and shoot player, he's a great cutter and finisher in the paint but he lacks the ball-handling skills, passing, and athleticism to drive and create.

I guess my post was a bit hyperbolic. Beal is my favorite player in the league and in my opinion only second to Harden in the ranks of shooting guards. However, it has been evident to me these last few games that teams are honing in on Beal. Beal was getting a number of different looks that I'm not sure he's accustomed to seeing and it seems to have rattled him. He's still scoring at a great clip but in the past two games alone he has 9 turnovers: most of them occurring after receiving double teams. He is an improved ball-handler but not great enough to maneuver in traffic. When I mentioned Beal struggling against great defensive players, I was specifically thinking of O.G Anunoby's length and aggressiveness causing Beal a great degree of difficulty.

I see you have 3 posts here, welcome. Just fyi, most of what PIF argues as it pertains to EG is pretty spot on, the rest of his player analysis can be mostly surmised by rebounds (He, I think he is he, loves offensive rebounds like no other), steals and turnovers. His entire basis for what constitutes a good player to be predicated on the over weighted parameters for wins produced (basically creation of possessions, which I'm sure he will argue is an over simplification). So unless you fancy Berri to be a basketball Messiah, you will find yourself in disagreement with him quite a bit. Which is quite ok!

As to Beal, yah he has been turning the ball over quite a bit lately. He needs to get a bit better at identifying double teams and which battles to pick. If he is facing the opposing team's best wing defender they need to work the ball to the weakest link and utilize w/e mismatch we have. We also need way more off the ball movement. Defense has been better for the last couple weeks but I think the offense has tapered off a bit. Perhaps that is due to Wall not being 100 yet either?