Otto Porter - Part 3

[Ruzious]

Otto's 31 minutes a game are too low. To be frank, I don't know how much Brooks like him. I think that's a mistake obviously, but if you watch the games and see the way the rotations work--it doesn't make sense how long Otto is out sometimes. 31 minutes on average is too low for a starting wing on a team that can't ever crack 50 wins.

I think a lot of that is because Otto's been playing with a hip injury for a good chunk of the season. There have been several times when I've seen him favoring one of his legs. An encouraging note - he led the team in minutes last night by a wide margin.

[payitforward]

I think the majority of Oubre's minutes should come at the expense of Morris, not Porter.

In fact, if Morris didn't see the floor more than 24 minutes with Oubre and Porter combining to pick up the rest I'd be perfectly happy.

Actually, that's what's happening. Compared to last year, Oubre is up 7 minutes a game; Kieff is down 7 minutes a game. On the season, he's averaging 23.6 minutes. Over his last 10 games, it's 24.4 minutes.

Of the 96 minutes/game at forward, Porter & Oubre together are averaging just under 59 minutes. Scott, overall, is averaging 20 minutes.

Of course, neither Kieff nor Scott have played in every game, & Porter has missed 3 games himself, so the numbers don't quite jibe w/ 96 a game. But, still, that's the pattern so far this season.

[payitforward]

I haven't been able to find any info on RPM on ESPN's site so i googled it. I found this seriously TLDR article.

https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/

The cliff notes version is that it isnt meant to measure solely what has happened this season. It is meant to be a predictive stat based on performance from past seasons in addition to this season. It is skeptical of performance way above or below past seasons. If a guy is having a breakout season this year then RPM will not give him full credit for his effect on the team this year because it expects his play to normalize in the future.

It isn't meant to compare players at different positions, it is meant to compare players at the same position. It is also designed to be relatively unaffected by his teammates play.

A RPM of 0 is meant to indicate an average player. Replacement player is -2.35.

To each his own, but the above description renders RPM useless in my view.

If a guy like Scott, who is playing better ball than he ever has, isn't getting the full credit for his play, but instead a guy who is playing below his previous seasons' level, say John Wall in this case, gets extra credit, then this stat isn't helpful in explaining why the team these two guys are on is doing as well or badly as it is.

Useless.

[tontoz]

I haven't been able to find any info on RPM on ESPN's site so i googled it. I found this seriously TLDR article.

https://cornerthreehoops.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/explaining-espns-real-plus-minus/

The cliff notes version is that it isnt meant to measure solely what has happened this season. It is meant to be a predictive stat based on performance from past seasons in addition to this season. It is skeptical of performance way above or below past seasons. If a guy is having a breakout season this year then RPM will not give him full credit for his effect on the team this year because it expects his play to normalize in the future.

It isn't meant to compare players at different positions, it is meant to compare players at the same position. It is also designed to be relatively unaffected by his teammates play.

A RPM of 0 is meant to indicate an average player. Replacement player is -2.35.

To each his own, but the above description renders RPM useless in my view.

If a guy like Scott, who is playing better ball than he ever has, isn't getting the full credit for his play, but instead a guy who is playing below his previous seasons' level, say John Wall in this case, gets extra credit, then this stat isn't helpful in explaining why the team these two guys are on is doing as well or badly as it is.

Useless.

I wouldn't say it's useless. I would say it isn't measuring what you and I thought it was.

[Coach76]

Read on Twitter

[gtn130]

Just read back through this -- gtn, apologies for the tone of a few of those posts. Really not worth the friction & heat....

All good. I dish it out, and I can take it.

[payitforward]

Just read back through this -- gtn, apologies for the tone of a few of those posts. Really not worth the friction & heat....

All good. I dish it out, and I can take it.

Oh yeah? Well try this on for size...

Spoiler:

Happy New Year, amigo -- & to all our fellow Wizards fans here!

[nate33]

Porter had a pretty bad slump in mid-December, probably due to his ailing back/hip injury. After taking two games off, he has come back really strong. In the 6 games since his return from injury, he is scoring almost 18 points per 36 minutes with a TS% of .666 and an ORtg of 137. His defense has been very good as well. He made a couple of key defensive plays to secure that Chicago win.

He has dragged his season averages up to the point where he is playing a bit better than last season. His PER, WS/48 and BPM are now all ahead of last year. His 3P% is up to .460, which beats last season's .434. His per-possession rebounding, assists, steals and blocks are up incrementally over last year. Offensively, he is playing exactly like last year as a highly efficient catch-and-shoot guy and finisher, only he is adding 3 more 2PT attempts per 100 possessions at a mediocre percentage. As a result, his USG% and PTS/POSS are up, but his TS% and ORtg are down a bit. But that's appropriate. When your ORtg is 129 like it was last year, you should try and find a way to get a few more shots up.

[Ruzious]

Tell Porter and Wall that every game Otto doesn't get 14 or more FGA's, they both get fined. Proceeds go to RealGM posters.

Actually, the Wiz record with him getting 14 or more FGA's isn't perfect, but they should continue to increase his usage. Not only does it give more attempts to their most efficient scorer, it should ease the burden on Wall and Beal - which should increase their efficiency numbers.

[dckingsfan]

Tell Porter and Wall that every game Otto doesn't get 14 or more FGA's, they both get fined. Proceeds go to RealGM posters.

Actually, the Wiz record with him getting 14 or more FGA's isn't perfect, but they should continue to increase his usage. Not only does it give more attempts to their most efficient scorer, it should ease the burden on Wall and Beal - which should increase their efficiency numbers.

That Porter gets up basically the same number of shots per 36 as Smith, Scott, Morris, Meeks and Oubre tells us something. I think one could argue a number of scenarios as to why.

But I think it shouldn't be arguable that he needs a larger share of the shots in order to be (more) successful? This is strictly coaching from my perspective. Brooks somehow has been unable to figure out plays that work to get Porter the ball and to let others like Morris know that it is better for Porter to shoot - I can't imagine that conversation would be comfortable.

[DCZards]

That Porter gets up basically the same number of shots per 36 as Smith, Scott, Morris, Meeks and Oubre tells us something. I think one could argue a number of scenarios as to why.

But I think it shouldn't be arguable that he needs a larger share of the shots in order to be (more) successful? This is strictly coaching from my perspective. Brooks somehow has been unable to figure out plays that work to get Porter the ball and to let others like Morris know that it is better for Porter to shoot - I can't imagine that conversation would be comfortable.

I don't see how or why it would be difficult to have a conversation with your team emphasizing that someone as efficient as OP should get more shots.

But Otto also needs to improve his ability to put the ball on the floor and create for himself. That's a skill area where I believe Kelly O. has surpassed OP.

[tontoz]

The only thing I really worry about with Porter is that he isn't very strong and gets banged up easily, causing his play to drop off.

Being hurt is not the same as being injured. Seems like the day to day abuse a NBA player has to deal with affects Porter more than most players.

Last year he also got off to a fast start but fell off later.

I am not that concerned about his lack of aggressiveness. I expect him to become more assertive as time goes on. Right now he typically doesn't try to score unless he has an advantage on the defender. Most guys just look to score when they get the ball.

[nate33]

The only thing I really worry about with Porter is that he isn't very strong and gets banged up easily, causing his play to drop off.

Being hurt is not the same as being injured. Seems like the day to day abuse a NBA player has to deal with affects Porter more than most players.

Last year he also got off to a fast start but fell off later.

It would be nice if we could send Porter to Germany this summer for some, um, "treatment". I'd love to seem him come back here with about 15 extra pounds of muscle and a true power forward's physique.

[dangermouse]

The only thing I really worry about with Porter is that he isn't very strong and gets banged up easily, causing his play to drop off.

Being hurt is not the same as being injured. Seems like the day to day abuse a NBA player has to deal with affects Porter more than most players.

Last year he also got off to a fast start but fell off later.

It would be nice if we could send Porter to Germany this summer for some, um, "treatment". I'd love to seem him come back here with about 15 extra pounds of muscle and a true power forward's physique.

We shoulda signed Wade and asked who his dealer was

UNRELATED QUESTION

Who does everyone think will be the better player when its all said and done... Otto or Jayson Tatum?

[closg00]

The only thing I really worry about with Porter is that he isn't very strong and gets banged up easily, causing his play to drop off.

Being hurt is not the same as being injured. Seems like the day to day abuse a NBA player has to deal with affects Porter more than most players.

Last year he also got off to a fast start but fell off later.

It would be nice if we could send Porter to Germany this summer for some, um, "treatment". I'd love to seem him come back here with about 15 extra pounds of muscle and a true power forward's physique.

We shoulda signed Wade and asked who his dealer was

UNRELATED QUESTION

Who does everyone think will be the better player when its all said and done... Otto or Jayson Tatum?

Tatum is more athletic and better from the jump than Otto. I envision Tatum growing and getting stronger while Otto remains stick-like and fragile.

[FAH1223]

Otto hurt again. Hip strain. Brooks also said he has back discomfort.

Besides putting on muscle do y’all think this is chronic??? This is a recurring theme since 2013-14.

[FireErnie702]

Hope he doesn’t miss too much time. Still can’t believe he got a max deal this past summer.

[Dark Faze]

The concerning thing is unlike Wall and Brads stress induced injuries in the past Otto has not been a high minute guy.

[nate33]

Hope he doesn’t miss too much time. Still can’t believe he got a max deal this past summer.

Do you mean you can't believe we matched an max deal or just that you were surprised that Brooklyn offered a max deal in the first place.

I don't have a problem with matching the deal on the table. The alternative, letting him walk, would have been worse. We wouldn't have had any cap room to replace him and instead would have been replacing him with the MLE.

[nate33]

Otto hurt again. Hip strain. Brooks also said he has back discomfort.

Besides putting on muscle do y’all think this is chronic??? This is a recurring theme since 2013-14.

I had a strained hip flexor a year ago from too much running. The more I ran, the more it hurt, but it was typically a pain that was manageable. At any given time, I was still capable of running hard, I would just be sore for several days afterward. The injury is annoying, but usually can heal if you just have the discipline to rest it long enough. My problem was that every time it started feeling good, I would too quickly re-strain it by overworking it again.

At some point, Otto is probably going to need to take 5 games in a row off to get his body right. They should probably target a slow point in the schedule where 5 games spans the longest possible period of time. Maybe do it in the last couple of games before the All Star Break?