2018 NBA Draft Thread

[Dat2U]

So here's a list of the freshman BPM leaders in the NCAA since the 2010-11 season - which is as far as BPM goes back.

The only guys who haven't lived up to their potential yet on this list are the guys who have had obvious maturity issues in Noel, Russell & Okafor. Even Cody Zeller has been really good when healthy and Dieng was really good with Minnesota until Thibs benched him for his boy Taj Gibson.

The top of the list is a who's who of young NBA stars. It's quite possible to have just a mediocre start to your college career and still be an NBA player but those odds are pretty small.

1. Anthony Davis
2. Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Joel Embiid
5. Nerlens Noel
6. Kyrie Irving
7. Wendell Carter Jr.
8. Cody Zeller
9. Lonzo Ball
10. Marcus Smart
11. Zhaire Smith
12. Steven Adams
13. Gorgui Dieng
14. D'Angelo Russell
15. Trae Young
16. Ben Simmons
17. Mikal Bridges
18. Zach Collins
19. Mohamed Bamba
20. Jontay Porter

Other interesting names:
23. DeAndre Ayton
26. Jahlil Okafor
28. Marvin Bagley Jr.
42. Gary Clark
52. Robert Williams
53. Miles Bridges
60. Aaron Gordon
61. Bam Adebayo
64. OG Anunoby
69. Lauri Markkannen
70. Otto Porter Jr.
74. Markelle Fultz
76. Jamal Murray
84. Devin Booker
97. Myles Turner
99. Bradley Beal
100. Kelly Oubre Jr.
109. Andrew Wiggins
113. Gary Harris
115. Bobby Portis
126. Donovan Mitchell
127. Malik Monk
158. Brandon Ingram
160. Jayson Tatum
177. Dennis Smith Jr.
182. Terry Rozier
221. Victor Oladipo
231. Collin Sexton
274. Andre Drummond
302. Buddy Hield
349. Tobias Harris
514. Spencer Dinwiddie
534. Aaron White (lol)
576. Kris Dunn
606. Kyle Kuzma
730. Rodney Hood

[Ruzious]

Not perfect - with Mitchell at 126, Tatum at 160, Rozier at 182, Oladipo at 221 (???), Drummond at 274... but interesting.

Another pro ZSmith source.

[Dat2U]

Not perfect - with Mitchell at 126, Tatum at 160, Rozier at 182, Oladipo at 221 (???), Drummond at 274... but interesting.

Another pro ZSmith source.

Booker at #84 was 8.9. Mitchell's BPM was 8.0. Oladipo's BPM was 6.6. All are good numbers. In Oladipo's case remember he was an extremely raw athletic freshman who had a great work ethic. BPM isn't the end all to be all but it provides real good reference if you consider 2 other key factors. The athletic profile of the prospect with respect to the position they project to play in the NBA and the maturity/work ethic of the prospect.

At this point, immaturity and poor rep will be a big red flag in my book. Maybe DeMarcus Cousins overcame the immaturity but I don't seem to remember many guys that have successfully.

Also if a guy is a 6-6 pudgy C with bad knees, he's probably not going to have a long career... I've learned my lesson from Dejuan Blair lol.

[Dark Faze]

The sixers are gonna get Mikal Bridges and LeBron and force us to rebuild aren't they?

That Jontay Porter ranking is pretty salivating...

[NatP4]

The sixers are gonna get Mikal Bridges and LeBron and force us to rebuild aren't they?

That Jontay Porter ranking is pretty salivating...

I’m sold, I want Jontay Porter. 100%. Robert Williams scares me a little bit. I still wanna Flip Oubre for Zhaire Smith

Wall
Beal
Smith
Porter
Porter

3 Missouri kids !

[NatP4]

That is an awesome post Dat. We need to buy low on Nerlens Noel this summer also. They could really reshape that roster this summer. I’m sure Wall could have some Kentucky influence on getting Noel here.

They could ship out the 2019 pick with Mahinmi and get back a useful role player.

LOL just saw Aaron White on the list

[AWIZZINGBULLET]

Actually, that's not what you believe. What you believe, because it's what you said we should do, is "trade Porter, Satoransky, our #15 R1 pick this year, & our R2 pick next year -- all in return for 'a top 5 pick' this year." Which, as I said, is just about the worst proposal I've ever read on this board.

& you are so "great at evaluating talent" that you can't even give one example. You can't even say who the player is, available in the top 5, who would be that "difference maker" who is worth all you are so eager to give up.

In short, you don't seem to have the slightest ability to evaluate talent. You do seem to like what you see in the mirror, however.

Again: who is the guy you want in the top 5 this year? & what are some examples of when you've said something like "this or that guy in the draft is going to be way better than the position he'll be drafted at" -- & been right, which would be evidence that you can evaluate talent.

Here's the way this is usually said -- Put up or shut up.

Now, that's not polite, so let me add "please."

Perhaps including the draft picks does make it a bad proposal, but like I said, I don't concern myself with trade value charts and I'm not great at determining fair trade value, I'm great at evaluating talent.

What's important is moving up in the draft to select that game-changer.

Draft picks aside, Otto Porter is still the player I'd trade and if another were necessary to seal the deal it would still be Satoransky because he's still somewhat an unknown commodity who's shown flashes of being a player that some coach could entrust with running a team.

Oh yeah all my stated beliefs are my actual beliefs, oh yeah!

First off, I should commend you for not taking my bait & getting riled.

Secondly, you're still off your rocker. Otto Porter is the most valuable player on this team, both in his current level of production & in his potential for further development. Tomas Satoransky, at his current salary & even at his likely salary upon re-signing, is the biggest bargain on the team -- absolutely the last kind of guy you choose to get rid of if you want to build a winner. Yet, you want to trade them -- plus another draft pick! -- to move up 10 spots in the draft!

That's a horrendous idea. & you can't defend it by saying "I don't know trade value; I only know talent." In a trade, the only thing that matters is what you get for what you give up, & you've proposed a trade wherein it would be impossible to get back enough to make it worth it to give up what you suggest.

Thirdly, even leaving aside the utter ineptitude at evaluating talent that you demonstrate by choosing those two guys to trade, why would I or anyone think you had any skill at it whatsoever? You haven't named a single player you'd want. You haven't even said whom you'd hope to acquire by way of this idiotic trade proposal of yours. Do you even know who's in the draft this year?

You haven't pointed to even one example that illustrates your sharp eye for talent. In other words, you haven't "put up," but you also won't "shut up," but instead you keep repeating your ludicrous claim. Why? Is it b/c you can't come across? You actually have nothing to offer?

At this point, you either say who you want in the draft that you think is worth giving up Porter, Sato & a pick for, or I am going to put you on ignore.

You don't rush greatness.

When I reveal my can't miss prospects rounds 1 and 2 all will know.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And what makes you think FO would move any starter with trade value not named Porter first?

You weren't talking about what the FO "would" do -- you were talking about what you thought they should do.

& what you thought they should do was trade Porter, Satoransky, & our '19 R2 pick in order to move up 10 spots in this year's draft.

You haven't said who you'd take (or even hope to take) with that #5 pick. But, you have said you are "great at evaluating talent," so... out with it, please -- who would it be?

Oh, & you also haven't provided those asked-for examples that would prove that you are "great at evaluating talent."

Hope you don't mind, but until you come across you look like a fake to me. OTOH, if you can show the goods, then more power to you.

What I believe is that Porter is somewhat expendable and has the most trade value after Beal and Wall, what I also believe is that the Wizards could be prepared to move on from Porter and because of that I believe the FO "would" include Porter in any trade deal, if the Wizards can get a top five pick by including Porter alone then great, I don't think that would happen so I figure they'd have to sweeten the deal with an extra player and pick/picks.

Like I said I'm great at evaluating talent not determining fair trade value. I leave that to Grunfeld, while he should leave talent evaluation to me.

My point is get in the top 5 and draft a difference maker at an area of need if possible.

Porter is the last of the three I would trade because he's efficient, younger, humble, and will EASILY fit on any team. Beal is the MOST EXPENDABLE/EASILY REPLACED because he's not as good as Porter or Wall. WALL IS THE ONE I WOULD TRADE IN ANY OF NUMEROUS SCENARIOS because he's got a supermax deal. JW is the oldest, most likely to be injured, makes the most money AND IS THE BEST PLAYER...BUT HE'S NOWHERE NEAR AS GOOD AS MEDIA pumps him up. John in crunch time has a big ego, doesn't play good defense, loses his composure and IS THE REASON GORTAT WAS PISSED. Petulant star who's very fast.

I don't want a top-5 difference maker. I want another second round pick...no, 2 second round picks. They make LESS MONEY and are OCCASIONALLY BETTER THAN TOP-5 picks.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2017.html

I'd take #38 Jordan Bell over #2 Lonzo Ball any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Donovan Mitchell #13
Bam Adebayo #14
John Collins #19
Jarrett Allen #22
OG Anunoby #23
Kyle Kuzma #27
Josh Hart #30

NOTE THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS: (#pick overall, all round 2)

48 Sindarius Thornwell
37 Semi Ojeleye
33 Wesley Iwundu
34 Frank Mason
41 Tyler Dorsey
39 Jawun Evans
40 Dwayne Bacon
35 Ivan Rabb
44 Damyean Dotson

BUSTS (?)

1 Markelle Fultz
5 D'Aaron Fox
4 Josh Jackson
6 Jonathan Isaac
8 Frank Ntilikina
9 Dennis Smith

DRAFTING IN THE TOP-5 is POTENTIALLY BIG MISS (or hit) territory. I think the best bet is picks are #15-45. It's VERY POSSIBLE TO PICK THE BEST PLAYER AFTER THE LOTTERY. Donovan Mitchell was BARELY lottery.

[youngWizzy]

These are the only players who shot 35% from three on minimum 50 attempts and had a Defensive Box Plus Minus of 6.0 or higher. Familiar names?

Gary Clark
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jacob Evans
Jontay Porter
Wendell Carter Jr.
Anfernee McLemore
Anthony Lawrence Jr.
Isaiah Roby
Zhaire Smith

Need to find a way to get Clark at the very least. He is going to be a good player....

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

These are the only players who shot 35% from three on minimum 50 attempts and had a Defensive Box Plus Minus of 6.0 or higher. Familiar names?

Gary Clark
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jacob Evans
Jontay Porter
Wendell Carter Jr.
Anfernee McLemore
Anthony Lawrence Jr.
Isaiah Roby
Zhaire Smith

Need to find a way to get Clark at the very least. He is going to be a good player....

Congratulations, you have cracked the code, youngWizzy. CANNOT MISS VALUE PICKS

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So here's a list of the freshman BPM leaders in the NCAA since the 2010-11 season - which is as far as BPM goes back.

The only guys who haven't lived up to their potential yet on this list are the guys who have had obvious maturity issues in Noel, Russell & Okafor. Even Cody Zeller has been really good when healthy and Dieng was really good with Minnesota until Thibs benched him for his boy Taj Gibson.

The top of the list is a who's who of young NBA stars. It's quite possible to have just a mediocre start to your college career and still be an NBA player but those odds are pretty small.

1. Anthony Davis
2. Karl-Anthony Towns
3. Jaren Jackson Jr.
4. Joel Embiid
5. Nerlens Noel
6. Kyrie Irving
7. Wendell Carter Jr.
8. Cody Zeller
9. Lonzo Ball
10. Marcus Smart
11. Zhaire Smith
12. Steven Adams
13. Gorgui Dieng
14. D'Angelo Russell
15. Trae Young
16. Ben Simmons
17. Mikal Bridges
18. Zach Collins
19. Mohamed Bamba
20. Jontay Porter

Other interesting names:
23. DeAndre Ayton
26. Jahlil Okafor
28. Marvin Bagley Jr.
42. Gary Clark
52. Robert Williams
53. Miles Bridges
60. Aaron Gordon
61. Bam Adebayo
64. OG Anunoby
69. Lauri Markkannen
70. Otto Porter Jr.
74. Markelle Fultz
76. Jamal Murray
84. Devin Booker
97. Myles Turner
99. Bradley Beal
100. Kelly Oubre Jr.
109. Andrew Wiggins
113. Gary Harris
115. Bobby Portis
126. Donovan Mitchell
127. Malik Monk
158. Brandon Ingram
160. Jayson Tatum
177. Dennis Smith Jr.
182. Terry Rozier
221. Victor Oladipo
231. Collin Sexton
274. Andre Drummond
302. Buddy Hield
349. Tobias Harris
514. Spencer Dinwiddie
534. Aaron White (lol)
576. Kris Dunn
606. Kyle Kuzma
730. Rodney Hood

This is a good feeling.

YOU KNOW WHAT EG AND HIS SCOUTS GENERALLY DO NOT...

These are the players who invariably will succeed at the next level.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

(The Wizards need to get Nerlens... Don't be afraid to trade Wall for Ball and assets...hope EG steps down)

[NatP4]

These are the only players who shot 35% from three on minimum 50 attempts and had a Defensive Box Plus Minus of 6.0 or higher. Familiar names?

Gary Clark
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jacob Evans
Jontay Porter
Wendell Carter Jr.
Anfernee McLemore
Anthony Lawrence Jr.
Isaiah Roby
Zhaire Smith

Need to find a way to get Clark at the very least. He is going to be a good player....

I need Jontay Porter, Gary Clark, and Zhaire Smith on this team after draft night. I do not care if Oubre has to be sacrificed.

[NatP4]

My goodness, a Jontay Porter-Nerlens Noel frontcourt. I need to change my pants

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

(The Wizards need to get Nerlens... Don't be afraid to trade Wall for Ball and assets...hope EG steps down)

After the win over Toronto...I'm thinking it's POSSIBLE they could go to the Finals...if the just get past Toronto.

Very unlikely...but possible.

[payitforward]

Not perfect - with Mitchell at 126, Tatum at 160, Rozier at 182, Oladipo at 221 (???), Drummond at 274... but interesting.

Another pro ZSmith source.

Booker at #84 was 8.9. Mitchell's BPM was 8.0. Oladipo's BPM was 6.6. All are good numbers. In Oladipo's case remember he was an extremely raw athletic freshman who had a great work ethic. BPM isn't the end all to be all but it provides real good reference if you consider 2 other key factors. The athletic profile of the prospect with respect to the position they project to play in the NBA and the maturity/work ethic of the prospect.

At this point, immaturity and poor rep will be a big red flag in my book. Maybe DeMarcus Cousins overcame the immaturity but I don't seem to remember many guys that have successfully.

Also if a guy is a 6-6 pudgy C with bad knees, he's probably not going to have a long career... I've learned my lesson from Dejuan Blair lol.

No statistical system can be perfect -- that's not the point. It's just a question of whether statistically (i.e. over a lot cases) it's better than some other such system. Find the best one, & use it -- along w/ a lot of other things!

Sign me up for Z. Smith & J. Porter! & how about Gary Clark on that list!

[payitforward]

Dat -- link to where you got the BPM list, please.

[payitforward]

...why would I or anyone think you had any skill at (evaluating talent) whatsoever?... You haven't pointed to even one example that illustrates your sharp eye for talent. ...

You don't rush greatness.

When I reveal my can't miss prospects rounds 1 and 2 all will know.

Oh, I can't wait.

In the meantime, since you've been on this board since before the 2012 draft why don't you remind us of who your "can't miss prospects round 1 and 2" were from 2012 - 2017, or did you just now attain this unrushed greatness?

Maybe that's asking too much. I'll make it easy for you: tell us just one "can't miss prospect" you have pointed out in in the 6 years you've been on this board.

There isn't even one, is there?

[DCZards]

...why would I or anyone think you had any skill at (evaluating talent) whatsoever?... You haven't pointed to even one example that illustrates your sharp eye for talent. ...

You don't rush greatness.

When I reveal my can't miss prospects rounds 1 and 2 all will know.

Oh, I can't wait.

In the meantime, since you've been on this board since before the 2012 draft why don't you remind us of who your "can't miss prospects round 1 and 2" were from 2012 - 2017, or did you just now attain this unrushed greatness?

Maybe that's asking too much. I'll make it easy for you: tell us just one "can't miss prospect" you have pointed out in in the 6 years you've been on this board.

There isn't even one, is there?

This is getting a little old, PIF.

[NatP4]

(The Wizards need to get Nerlens... Don't be afraid to trade Wall for Ball and assets...hope EG steps down)

After the win over Toronto...I'm thinking it's POSSIBLE they could go to the Finals...if the just get past Toronto.

Very unlikely...but possible.

Agreed