Where should the Wizards go from here?

[nate33]

Here's a fascinating offseason plan from Bulletsforever.com https://www.bulletsforever.com/2018/6/1/17414092/washington-wizards-nba-free-agency-draft-mock-offseason that actually gets the team below the lux tax in a realistic manner. I hadn't even thought about stretching Mahinmi remaining 2 years and near 32 mil. Apparently, they can stretch that near 32 mil over 5 years, so we'd have to live with him costing 6.3 mil per year for 5 years, but we save close to 10 mil for each of the next 2 seasons. Lots of interesting ideas in that plan. One thing I'd add to the plan is a trade of Oubre for a mid to late 1st and second primarly to get Spellman.

Stretching isn't a good idea. Yeah, it might solve an immediate crunch, but it puts us in worse position for the long term. We already have Wall's mammoth contract to deal with. I don't want to also have 3 extra years of a $6.5M phantom contract weighing down the pay structure. It will leave just over 50% of the cap to pay everyone on the team besides Wall.

[Ruzious]

Here's a fascinating offseason plan from Bulletsforever.com https://www.bulletsforever.com/2018/6/1/17414092/washington-wizards-nba-free-agency-draft-mock-offseason that actually gets the team below the lux tax in a realistic manner. I hadn't even thought about stretching Mahinmi remaining 2 years and near 32 mil. Apparently, they can stretch that near 32 mil over 5 years, so we'd have to live with him costing 6.3 mil per year for 5 years, but we save close to 10 mil for each of the next 2 seasons. Lots of interesting ideas in that plan. One thing I'd add to the plan is a trade of Oubre for a mid to late 1st and second primarly to get Spellman.

Stretching isn't a good idea. Yeah, it might solve an immediate crunch, but it puts us in worse position for the long term. We already have Wall's mammoth contract to deal with. I don't want to also have 3 extra years of a $6.5M phantom contract weighing down the pay structure. It will leave just over 50% of the cap to pay everyone on the team besides Wall.

One thing it could do is postpone getting into the lux tax for 2 seasons, and that has the huge extra benefit of lowering the tax rate in future years when we will be in the lux tax. We basically know we can't get out of it when Wall's extension hits. That likely saves a lot of tax dollars overall in that 5 year period, and it allows the team to pay for a legit starting center for the next 2 seasons - if all the cost-saving steps in that plan are executed.

[LyricalRico]

Here's a fascinating offseason plan from Bulletsforever.com https://www.bulletsforever.com/2018/6/1/17414092/washington-wizards-nba-free-agency-draft-mock-offseason that actually gets the team below the lux tax in a realistic manner. I hadn't even thought about stretching Mahinmi remaining 2 years and near 32 mil. Apparently, they can stretch that near 32 mil over 5 years, so we'd have to live with him costing 6.3 mil per year for 5 years, but we save close to 10 mil for each of the next 2 seasons. Lots of interesting ideas in that plan. One thing I'd add to the plan is a trade of Oubre for a mid to late 1st and second primarly to get Spellman.

Stretching isn't a good idea. Yeah, it might solve an immediate crunch, but it puts us in worse position for the long term. We already have Wall's mammoth contract to deal with. I don't want to also have 3 extra years of a $6.5M phantom contract weighing down the pay structure. It will leave just over 50% of the cap to pay everyone on the team besides Wall.

One thing it could do is postpone getting into the lux tax for 2 seasons, and that has the huge extra benefit of lowering the tax rate in future years when we will be in the lux tax. We basically know we can't get out of it when Wall's extension hits. That likely saves a lot of tax dollars overall in that 5 year period, and it allows the team to pay for a legit starting center for the next 2 seasons - if all the cost-saving steps in that plan are executed.

Another "benefit" to using the stretch on Mahinmi is that the Wiz would no longer need to use a first to dump his salary. So it eats into future cap space, but allows the team to keep their picks. Not arguing for or against the idea at this point, just thinking out loud.

[payitforward]

In the John-appreciation thread, a long post by Cobracommander really outlined the problems going forward. I'll copy it here -- might make a basis for further discussion in this thread....

[payitforward]

...Wall aint the wizards problem OR solution. The problem starts with the GM and goes to the coach ....problems 1A and problem 1B. The GM has traded away picks and got nothing in return. Signed players late and ate up cap space and HAS not surrounded John and Brad with mentors - older players that can help manage the lockerroom.
The coach hasn’t played players when they could have had a chance to learn (see Sato and last years playoffs) so that they would be ready for the moment (compared to Toronto and Boston). Thus our best bench player this playoffs was playing in CHINA last year...HOW THe F does that HAPPEN with all the scouting going on in the NBA!?!?! Sato wasn’t ready for the speed of the game...because he didnt get a chance to play in it last year...thus...he was not very good this year in the playoffs...and thats not his fault.

But back to Wall...Wall aint gonna save this team. He isn’t that good...there are only a smalllllll handful of guys that can overcome bad coaching and a SUCKY roster and get their teams to the finals...and when i say Handful I mean LEBRON JAMES...Wall aint Lebron.

All those people talking about break up the wiz should be saying break up the trailblazers, Toronto, OKC, etc...good talent aint crap without coaching in the NBA when the GSW have overwhelming talent, decent coaching, Cleveland has Lebron, Boston has talent, Coaching and a great GM, Spurs have a great Coach, 76ers have up and coming extremely high talent and Toronto has our exact team but with a better bench and hell maybe had a better coach.

To get this team better- the coach and the GM need to figure out how to maximize the talent they got instead of trying to play “off the ball”- “high pick and roll”- “8 seconds or less”- “ball movement”- “triangle offense”....none of it matters if you are not matching players with good coaching. The wiz dont have the talent to “out talent” anyone...and trading Wall or Beal wont get them the talent needed in return to do that next year or the year after...like give us KL for Wall and we still aint winning the east next year fellas...especially if Lebron still in the east...and we sure as hell ain’t winning a ring with this squad and ANY ONE PLAYER added to the squad...even if it was LEBRON! So in other words...we more than ONE piece away. I’m saying John, Brad, Otto, Lebron and Gortat as our starting 5 just gets swept or wins 1 or 2 games with the Warriors...especially if the coach continues to just ROLL THE BALL OUT AND ASK THE PLAYERS...”what we doing today guys?” The wizards are NOT coached...with a bad GM that wouldn’t fire the coach to get us someone that lays into or benches Wall or Beal when they play poorly...not because their shot isnt falling ...but because they are playing unintelligently...Wall and Beal get away with being closer to Swaggy P and JR smith than they are to Lebron...i.e. making the right play at the right time...and they are too smart and too good for that. THAT IS ALL ON THE COACH...and the fact that there is NO ONE to sub in for John and Brad when they are doing DUMB SH.....is on the GM. The fact that our best player is a poor shooter and our second best player cant dribble...is a problem with coaching too. Because the coach puts John and Brad in positions where their weaknesses are existential on FULLL DISPLAY to be exposed...remember that Toronto Benched their best player for PLAYING poorly...and they beat us...soundly...

Sorry to rant...but we have a little talent on this roster...but we dont have enough...we have NO coaching on this roster...and we will need more to compete. The coach needs to figure out how to get the most out of Wall, Beal and Otto....the time of Otto being a 3rd wheel has ended...is Otto’s future to be the Max salary version of Trevor Ariza or will the COACH get more out of this extremely efficent player....thats not completely on Otto...man i could go on...but you get the point. The finals was a referendum on all the GMs and Coaches in the league...you gottta have talent, basketball IQ and great coaching if you want a chance at the ring...we aint got enough of any of those things....but that aint Walls fault.

[gtn130]

unrelated, but the Otto/Ariza comp has always been lazy. Otto is a lot more versatile offensively, and Ariza is a lot better defensively

[Dark Faze]

Ariza is great

[NatP4]

unrelated, but the Otto/Ariza comp has always been lazy. Otto is a lot more versatile offensively, and Ariza is a lot better defensively

Ariza is better defensively??? “A lot better” ???

[gtn130]

unrelated, but the Otto/Ariza comp has always been lazy. Otto is a lot more versatile offensively, and Ariza is a lot better defensively

Ariza is better defensively??? “A lot better” ???

Yes? This isn't a controversial opinion.

Advanced numbers all support this (DWS, DBPM, DRtg) and Ariza is much better eye test wise. He's possibly the best at ball denial in the league.

[NatP4]

unrelated, but the Otto/Ariza comp has always been lazy. Otto is a lot more versatile offensively, and Ariza is a lot better defensively

Ariza is better defensively??? “A lot better” ???

Yes? This isn't a controversial opinion.

Advanced numbers all support this (DWS, DBPM, DRtg) and Ariza is much better eye test wise. He's possibly the best at ball denial in the league.

Otto has a higher DWS, DRPM, DBPM, they have the same DRtg of 107.

Otto also averages mores steals and blocks.

We must be using different eye tests

[gtn130]

Ariza is better defensively??? “A lot better” ???

Yes? This isn't a controversial opinion.

Advanced numbers all support this (DWS, DBPM, DRtg) and Ariza is much better eye test wise. He's possibly the best at ball denial in the league.

Otto has a higher DWS, DRPM, DBPM, they have the same DRtg of 107.

Otto also averages mores steals and blocks.

We must be using different eye tests

steals and blocks mean zero.

Ariza has had multiple seasons of better defensive production from an advanced stats perspective. Sorting by this season when Ariza is 32 and had a smaller role on a stacked team is completely disingenuous.

[NatP4]

Yes? This isn't a controversial opinion.

Advanced numbers all support this (DWS, DBPM, DRtg) and Ariza is much better eye test wise. He's possibly the best at ball denial in the league.

Otto has a higher DWS, DRPM, DBPM, they have the same DRtg of 107.

Otto also averages mores steals and blocks.

We must be using different eye tests

steals and blocks mean zero.

Ariza has had multiple seasons of better defensive production from an advanced stats perspective. Sorting by this season when Ariza is 32 and had a smaller role on a stacked team is completely disingenuous.

Steals and blocks mean zero?

Ariza averaged more minutes per game than Otto (who is only 24 and hasn’t peaked whatsoever)

At 24, Ariza had the exact same DWS, DBPM, and DRtg as Otto does now.

[dckingsfan]

...Wall aint the wizards problem OR solution. The problem starts with the GM and goes to the coach ....problems 1A and problem 1B. The GM has traded away picks and got nothing in return. Signed players late and ate up cap space and HAS not surrounded John and Brad with mentors - older players that can help manage the lockerroom.
The coach hasn’t played players when they could have had a chance to learn (see Sato and last years playoffs) so that they would be ready for the moment (compared to Toronto and Boston). Thus our best bench player this playoffs was playing in CHINA last year...HOW THe F does that HAPPEN with all the scouting going on in the NBA!?!?! Sato wasn’t ready for the speed of the game...because he didnt get a chance to play in it last year...thus...he was not very good this year in the playoffs...and thats not his fault.

But back to Wall...Wall aint gonna save this team. He isn’t that good...there are only a smalllllll handful of guys that can overcome bad coaching and a SUCKY roster and get their teams to the finals...and when i say Handful I mean LEBRON JAMES...Wall aint Lebron.

All those people talking about break up the wiz should be saying break up the trailblazers, Toronto, OKC, etc...good talent aint crap without coaching in the NBA when the GSW have overwhelming talent, decent coaching, Cleveland has Lebron, Boston has talent, Coaching and a great GM, Spurs have a great Coach, 76ers have up and coming extremely high talent and Toronto has our exact team but with a better bench and hell maybe had a better coach.

To get this team better- the coach and the GM need to figure out how to maximize the talent they got instead of trying to play “off the ball”- “high pick and roll”- “8 seconds or less”- “ball movement”- “triangle offense”....none of it matters if you are not matching players with good coaching. The wiz dont have the talent to “out talent” anyone...and trading Wall or Beal wont get them the talent needed in return to do that next year or the year after...like give us KL for Wall and we still aint winning the east next year fellas...especially if Lebron still in the east...and we sure as hell ain’t winning a ring with this squad and ANY ONE PLAYER added to the squad...even if it was LEBRON! So in other words...we more than ONE piece away. I’m saying John, Brad, Otto, Lebron and Gortat as our starting 5 just gets swept or wins 1 or 2 games with the Warriors...especially if the coach continues to just ROLL THE BALL OUT AND ASK THE PLAYERS...”what we doing today guys?” The wizards are NOT coached...with a bad GM that wouldn’t fire the coach to get us someone that lays into or benches Wall or Beal when they play poorly...not because their shot isnt falling ...but because they are playing unintelligently...Wall and Beal get away with being closer to Swaggy P and JR smith than they are to Lebron...i.e. making the right play at the right time...and they are too smart and too good for that. THAT IS ALL ON THE COACH...and the fact that there is NO ONE to sub in for John and Brad when they are doing DUMB SH.....is on the GM. The fact that our best player is a poor shooter and our second best player cant dribble...is a problem with coaching too. Because the coach puts John and Brad in positions where their weaknesses are existential on FULLL DISPLAY to be exposed...remember that Toronto Benched their best player for PLAYING poorly...and they beat us...soundly...

Sorry to rant...but we have a little talent on this roster...but we dont have enough...we have NO coaching on this roster...and we will need more to compete. The coach needs to figure out how to get the most out of Wall, Beal and Otto....the time of Otto being a 3rd wheel has ended...is Otto’s future to be the Max salary version of Trevor Ariza or will the COACH get more out of this extremely efficent player....thats not completely on Otto...man i could go on...but you get the point. The finals was a referendum on all the GMs and Coaches in the league...you gottta have talent, basketball IQ and great coaching if you want a chance at the ring...we aint got enough of any of those things....but that aint Walls fault.

Other than that Ms. Lincoln - how was the play?

[gtn130]

At 24, Ariza had the exact same DWS, DBPM, and DRtg as Otto does now.

Ariza has three seasons of better DRtg than Otto's best, five seasons of better DWS and eleven seasons of better DPM numbers. And all of that is secondary to the fact that Ariza is factually way better defensively based simply on watching him for five seconds.

You don't actually know what you're talking about.

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

2:30

our only hope for a ring

[NatP4]

At 24, Ariza had the exact same DWS, DBPM, and DRtg as Otto does now.

Ariza has three seasons of better DRtg than Otto's best, five seasons of better DWS and eleven seasons of better DPM numbers. And all of that is secondary to the fact that Ariza is factually way better defensively based simply on watching him for five seconds.

You don't actually know what you're talking about.

“Ariza is factually way better defensively based simply on watching him for five seconds”

“Steals and blocks matter zero”

*uses DRtg to compare individual players*

*compares Otto’s 4 full seasons to Ariza’s 14 year career*

All 5 of those seasons (one of which was literally 0.1 better) occurred after Ariza turned 24 years old. Hmmm.

That DBPM comment is just straight up false.

I’m actually losing brain cells here

[gtn130]

“Steals and blocks matter zero”

Correct. If Ariza averaged more steals and blocks, it would not be part of my argument.

*uses DRtg to compare individual players*

Yes, it measures how the team performed while that *individual* was on the court.

*compares Otto’s 4 full seasons to Ariza’s 14 year career*

Dude, if you'd rather look at when Ariza was a starter playing big minutes, it hurts your argument and makes Ariza look better. You're completely clueless.

All 5 of those seasons (one of which was literally 0.1 better) occurred after Ariza turned 24 years old. Hmmm.

Ariza started ~50 games over his first five season! Do you think Otto is going to consistently and incrementally improve defensively all the way to age 32? He won't. Players peak earlier defensively than they do offensively as you simply can't play perimeter defense without athleticism.

That DBPM comment is just straight up false.

It's not. Otto's best season in DBPM according to bref is 1.2. Ariza has eclipsed that 11 times.

Again, you don't know what you're talking about.

[NatP4]

“Steals and blocks matter zero”

Correct. If Ariza averaged more steals and blocks, it would not be part of my argument.

*uses DRtg to compare individual players*

Yes, it measures how the team performed while that *individual* was on the court.

*compares Otto’s 4 full seasons to Ariza’s 14 year career*

Dude, if you'd rather look at when Ariza was a starter playing big minutes, it hurts your argument and makes Ariza look better. You're completely clueless.

All 5 of those seasons (one of which was literally 0.1 better) occurred after Ariza turned 24 years old. Hmmm.

Ariza started ~50 games over his first five season! Do you think Otto is going to consistently and incrementally improve defensively all the way to age 32? He won't. Players peak earlier defensively than they do offensively as you simply can't play perimeter defense without athleticism.

That DBPM comment is just straight up false.

It's not. Otto's best season in DBPM according to bref is 1.2. Ariza has eclipsed that 11 times.

Again, you don't know what you're talking about.

Why am I arguing with someone that doesn’t even know how to read a basketball reference page correctly?

You are looking at partial seasons in which Ariza was traded and played for multiple teams, as opposed to the season totals. No words.

Ariza started 71 games in his 24 year old season.

I’m done with this

[gtn130]

Why am I arguing with someone that doesn’t even know how to read a basketball reference page correctly?

You are looking at partial seasons in which Ariza was traded and played for multiple teams, as opposed to the season totals. No words.

Yes, you're strengthening my argument again. He played in multiple different scenarios with different teams and outperformed Otto in each of them.

[NatP4]

Why am I arguing with someone that doesn’t even know how to read a basketball reference page correctly?

You are looking at partial seasons in which Ariza was traded and played for multiple teams, as opposed to the season totals. No words.

Yes, you're strengthening my argument again. He played in multiple different scenarios with different teams and outperformed Otto in each of them.