Where should the Wizards go from here?

[Dat2U]

Color me down for a Beal, Oubre, Smith & pick for a Kawhi & Patty Mills swap.

A big three of Kawhi, Wall & Otto sounds pretty darn tempting to me.

[nate33]

Can we win with John Wall at 30% of the cap? No, not under Grunfeld, no way no how. That's clearly been proven. If Wall was making the minimum, I'd still have no faith that Grunfeld could build a roster good enough around him. I dunno... like I said we are one quality big away from being at least in the conversation as contenders. I know that upsets PIF but we don't need a 13-deep roster like Toronto has. They aren't going to be able to keep everyone.

35%. Not 30%

And I don't think we can with anyone else running the show either. I don't see us building a team that has any chance whatsoever to beat Philly, Boston, Golden State or Houston in the next 3-4 years, certainly not while we have to first wait out all of these bad contracts we've signed.

[nate33]

Color me down for a Beal, Oubre, Smith & pick for a Kawhi & Patty Mills swap.

A big three of Kawhi, Wall & Otto sounds pretty darn tempting to me.

I'd do that too. I don't think San Antonio would.

[Wizardspride]

Wall is the only guy on the roster that can literally go get you 25 & 10 in EVERY playoff game. Despite all the hate for him... how many players in the league can actually do that. Nate33, Payit? I would love to know that answer. Assuming where you guys tend to place him among others, I'd assume another 30-40 NBA players are capable of averaging those numbers in the playoffs

I think Wall is somewhere around the 25th best player in the league.

And I think you are overstating Wall's production. He has averaged 25 and 10 in precisely one playoffs in his entire career. That said, he has certainly been our best player in this playoffs so far.

But whether or not Wall is the 15th best player or the 30th best player, and whether or not he averaged 25 and 10 and can be expected to do so going forward are secondary questions. The primary question I have for you is simple: do you think it's possible to build a contender with a team that features John Wall making 35% of the cap? And is it possible do so within the next 2 or 3 years before Wall's play declines? If the answer to either of those questions is no, then the course going forward is clear: trade Wall.

I think the answer to both questions is no.

Applying the same thought process: I think a team can win a championship with Porter or Beal making 25% of the cap, particularly since they may not yet have peaked and they have a much longer window in front of them before they decline. Therefore I wouldn't conclude that trading one of those guys is a prerequisite to putting us on a path to contention. I'd be open-minded to trading one or both if the value was right, but I'd also be content with keeping them and adding to them.

Ok. I see where the disconnect is.

You think Wall has peaked (and you may be right) while Otto/Bradley can still grow.

I guess I don't see the ability/upside in those two that you apparently do.

I mean yes, they are young but I just don't see the raw talent to build a franchise around.

Basically, if it comes down to trading John and building around Otto/Brad, I'd just prefer to blow it up completely and do a true rebuild.

[Wizardspride]

Color me down for a Beal, Oubre, Smith & pick for a Kawhi & Patty Mills swap.

A big three of Kawhi, Wall & Otto sounds pretty darn tempting to me.

I do that too. I don't think San Antonio would.

Really?

Assuming the Spurs were shopping Leonard, that seems like a very good haul in my eyes.

I could be wrong though...

[FAH1223]

Color me down for a Beal, Oubre, Smith & pick for a Kawhi & Patty Mills swap.

A big three of Kawhi, Wall & Otto sounds pretty darn tempting to me.

I'd do it in a heart beat.

Only issue is I think the Spurs and Kawhi probably will patch things up...

I also question what the hell is up with his quad? It sounds like a nerve issue?

[Dat2U]

Here's the type of plan I'd be looking at:

This summer:
* Trade John Wall and Ian Mahinmi to Sacramento for expiring contracts (Zach Randolph and Iman Shumpert), and a 2019 1st. We would also create a $20M TPE in the process.
* Sign Ty Lawson and Lucas Nogueira
* Spend the rest of the offseason trying to trade Gortat and Morris for anything of value, being willing to take back an extra year of salary if necessary. Let's assume we end up dumping Morris and get back a late 1st plus a worthless player with a contract that expires in 2020. We get no bites on Gortat so we buy him out.
* Sign a vet backup PF on a 1-year deal. Scott would be great, but others could work.

Roster in 2018/19:

Lawson/Sato
Beal/Shumpert/Meeks
Oubre/D.Robinson
Porter/2018 1st/Mike Scott
Nogueira/Randolph/Smith

Brooks, who is a decent player development coach, continues to work with Oubre, Sato, Nogueira, Robinson and our pick while being a terrible in-game strategist. We probably miss the playoffs, but not necessarily.

Trade Deadline in 2019:
*Trade our $20M TPE for a bad contract and a 2019 1st round pick

Summer of 2019:
*Draft young player with our 2019 (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with Sacramento's (probable) late lotto pick
*Draft young player with the 1st round pick acquired at the Trade Deadline for our TPE
*Extend Oubre
*Extend Sato
*Fire Brooks and get a good coach

Roster in 2019/20:

PG 2019 1st/Sato
SG Beal/2019 1st
SF Oubre/Sato
PF Porter/2018 1st
C Noguiera/2019 1st
Deep Bench: 2 crappy overpriced vets (acquired in trades above) with expiring contracts.

So we trade John Wall and we don't even get a draft pick until 2019? After he's likely made the team competitive? Oh come on man! I think the entire league would raise a huge eyebrow on that one.

I really don't think you appreciate the negative value of John's contract. He'll be making $46M in 2022-23 when he is 32 years old. Frankly, I think we'd be pretty lucky to land Sacramento's pick in that package.

If Wall has negative or no real value...

1. Why trade? For what? Cap flexibility to sign..................no one?
2. To get better? I don't see how? This trade amounts to a cap dump. We lose major talent and its not like were getting a cache of picks in return.
3. To rebuild? Not quite b/c we won't bottom out with Beal & Porter. Our picks will be late lottery.
4. To replace Wall with something better? No... there's no avenue to replace him unless we luck up on one of our picks.
5. To get younger? We can get younger without the lousy Sac pick in an incredibly weak 2019 draft.

So I'm trying to see the real value. Will be hard very hard to put together a contender with Wall's contract? Sure. But I don't see how this move gets us any closer to being a contender. IMO, it just makes us incredibly mediocre. Basically we become Detroit or Charlotte.

[gtn130]

Basically we become Detroit or Charlotte.

I think we're already there

[Dat2U]

Basically we become Detroit or Charlotte.

I think we're already there

It's not that bad. Yet. Those teams have better depth, we've got better top line talent.

[gtn130]

Color me down for a Beal, Oubre, Smith & pick for a Kawhi & Patty Mills swap.

A big three of Kawhi, Wall & Otto sounds pretty darn tempting to me.

I do that too. I don't think San Antonio would.

Really?

Assuming the Spurs were shopping Leonard, that seems like a very good haul in my eyes.

I could be wrong though...

Yeah it's hard to imagine the Spurs doing much better than that. The only truly fair trade is a tier 1 superstar for Kawhi, and there are zero available.

[CoachD]

2) Coach/play-style: Like above, most here acknowledge that Ted cant fire Brooks this early into a huge contract. That said, we have other ways to change our coaching. Look at the very team that is killing us, the Raptors. Casey has been a TERRIBLE coach most of his career, so how are they all of a sudden communicating on D and jacking up 3's? They were embarrassed in the playoffs last year and made the concerted effort to make changes. Just saying, there is precedent for this.

Not true at all.

Without Casey and his innovative version of the 1-3-1 half court zone, the Mavs don't win a title in 2011.
With Toronto, Casey has always had his teams overachieve. Their short comings in the playoffs have been a result of play style which was necessitated by a lack of talent / depth.

Casey has always been a defensive guru.

His players will run through a wall for him.

Toronto has become one of the best ATO teams in the league.

The creation of their D/G league team was a Godsend, as it gave them an avenue to focus on internal player development. 7 members (SEVEN!!) of their current team came from the D League. 4 of those guys are regular rotation pieces. Then there is Powell (who was a starter and got outplayed), Nogueira (who would be further up the depth chart on most other teams) and Brown (who was the G League MVP and is along for the ride).

Jerry Stackhouse and his coaching team develop players under the direction of Casey and his assistants. That synergy has created the ability for guys to step in and contribute.

That shadow team that was created in the background, along with the decision to revamp the offensive style is the biggest difference in Toronto this year.

Don't think for a second Casey suddenly became a good coach, and he used to suck. He's always been an above average NBA coach.

[dcstanley]

I think you guys are undervaluing Wall/Beal/Otto. If Wall entered camp healthy we're likely a three/four/five seed. You guys have to consider how utterly awful our supporting cast is. Besides our three max contracts, Sato and Oubre are the only rotational players worth a damn. Gortat is out of the league next season. Markieff and Scott should only play spot minutes.

For example, if we kept our pick and drafted Jarrett Allen we would be a drastically different team.

[gtn130]

2) Coach/play-style: Like above, most here acknowledge that Ted cant fire Brooks this early into a huge contract. That said, we have other ways to change our coaching. Look at the very team that is killing us, the Raptors. Casey has been a TERRIBLE coach most of his career, so how are they all of a sudden communicating on D and jacking up 3's? They were embarrassed in the playoffs last year and made the concerted effort to make changes. Just saying, there is precedent for this.

Not true at all.

Without Casey and his innovative version of the 1-3-1 half court zone, the Mavs don't win a title in 2011.
With Toronto, Casey has always had his teams overachieve. Their short comings in the playoffs have been a result of play style which was necessitated by a lack of talent / depth.

Casey has always been a defensive guru.

His players will run through a wall for him.

Toronto has become one of the best ATO teams in the league.

The creation of their D/G league team was a Godsend, as it gave them an avenue to focus on internal player development. 7 members (SEVEN!!) of their current team came from the D League. 4 of those guys are regular rotation pieces. Then there is Powell (who was a starter and got outplayed), Nogueira (who would be further up the depth chart on most other teams) and Brown (who was the G League MVP and is along for the ride).

Jerry Stackhouse and his coaching team develop players under the direction of Casey and his assistants. That synergy has created the ability for guys to step in and contribute.

That shadow team that was created in the background, along with the decision to revamp the offensive style is the biggest difference in Toronto this year.

Don't think for a second Casey suddenly became a good coach, and he used to suck. He's always been an above average NBA coach.

You really thought this thread was the place for this? Please cape for your coach elsewhere

[pcbothwel]

2) Coach/play-style: Like above, most here acknowledge that Ted cant fire Brooks this early into a huge contract. That said, we have other ways to change our coaching. Look at the very team that is killing us, the Raptors. Casey has been a TERRIBLE coach most of his career, so how are they all of a sudden communicating on D and jacking up 3's? They were embarrassed in the playoffs last year and made the concerted effort to make changes. Just saying, there is precedent for this.

Not true at all.

Without Casey and his innovative version of the 1-3-1 half court zone, the Mavs don't win a title in 2011.
With Toronto, Casey has always had his teams overachieve. Their short comings in the playoffs have been a result of play style which was necessitated by a lack of talent / depth.

Casey has always been a defensive guru.

His players will run through a wall for him.

Toronto has become one of the best ATO teams in the league.

The creation of their D/G league team was a Godsend, as it gave them an avenue to focus on internal player development. 7 members (SEVEN!!) of their current team came from the D League. 4 of those guys are regular rotation pieces. Then there is Powell (who was a starter and got outplayed), Nogueira (who would be further up the depth chart on most other teams) and Brown (who was the G League MVP and is along for the ride).

Jerry Stackhouse and his coaching team develop players under the direction of Casey and his assistants. That synergy has created the ability for guys to step in and contribute.

That shadow team that was created in the background, along with the decision to revamp the offensive style is the biggest difference in Toronto this year.

Don't think for a second Casey suddenly became a good coach, and he used to suck. He's always been an above average NBA coach.

I think you just made my point. Masai has made the organization what it is, not Casey. Great assistants, Great drafting, Great G-League, etc. Thats a strong organization allowing an average head coach to thrive. Not saying Casey isnt doing his part...
You have to go back to my point, which is we dont need a new head coach to see improvements in the team. Whether that would be talent, rotations, defensive/offensive philosophy.
I think you took it the wrong way, but with that said... I have seen NUMEROUS Raps fans post about how terrible Casey is over the last 3 years.

[CntOutSmrtCrazy]

I do that too. I don't think San Antonio would.

Really?

Assuming the Spurs were shopping Leonard, that seems like a very good haul in my eyes.

I could be wrong though...

Yeah it's hard to imagine the Spurs doing much better than that. The only truly fair trade is a tier 1 superstar for Kawhi, and there are zero available.

I get the feeling that San Antonio would be bullish on Beal’s ability to thrive down there with a coach of Pop’s caliber.

[Error Afflalo]

I really don't think you appreciate the negative value of John's contract. He'll be making $46M in 2022-23 when he is 32 years old. Frankly, I think we'd be pretty lucky to land Sacramento's pick in that package.

Sacramento doesn't own its 2019 1st. Philly got it in the Stauskas deal and dealt it to Boston in the Fultz deal (top 1 protected). What an awful deal by Sacramento.

[Error Afflalo]

2) Coach/play-style: Like above, most here acknowledge that Ted cant fire Brooks this early into a huge contract. That said, we have other ways to change our coaching. Look at the very team that is killing us, the Raptors. Casey has been a TERRIBLE coach most of his career, so how are they all of a sudden communicating on D and jacking up 3's? They were embarrassed in the playoffs last year and made the concerted effort to make changes. Just saying, there is precedent for this.

Not true at all.

Without Casey and his innovative version of the 1-3-1 half court zone, the Mavs don't win a title in 2011.
With Toronto, Casey has always had his teams overachieve. Their short comings in the playoffs have been a result of play style which was necessitated by a lack of talent / depth.

Casey has always been a defensive guru.

His players will run through a wall for him.

Toronto has become one of the best ATO teams in the league.

The creation of their D/G league team was a Godsend, as it gave them an avenue to focus on internal player development. 7 members (SEVEN!!) of their current team came from the D League. 4 of those guys are regular rotation pieces. Then there is Powell (who was a starter and got outplayed), Nogueira (who would be further up the depth chart on most other teams) and Brown (who was the G League MVP and is along for the ride).

Jerry Stackhouse and his coaching team develop players under the direction of Casey and his assistants. That synergy has created the ability for guys to step in and contribute.

That shadow team that was created in the background, along with the decision to revamp the offensive style is the biggest difference in Toronto this year.

Don't think for a second Casey suddenly became a good coach, and he used to suck. He's always been an above average NBA coach.

Good post. To add to that, it doesn't appear, at least from the outside, that Toronto ever had the same locker room issues/personality clashes we're dealing with. In fact, Lowry and DeRozan appear to be really close. That will never happen here.

[nate33]

Ok. I see where the disconnect is.

You think Wall has peaked (and you may be right) while Otto/Bradley can still grow.

Yes, there's that, and there's the difference between 25% of the cap and 35% of the cap. Also, there's the knowledge that even if it takes 3 or 4 years to finally build something around them, they'll still be in their prime when it happens.

Finally, I think Porter and Beal can complement a truly elite star more so than Wall can. If we assume that we must ultimately find/acquire a top 10 superstar in order to be a contender, I think a top 10 superstar plus Beal and Porter (being paid a combined $54M) is a better combo than a top 10 superstar plus Wall (at $43M) plus a random $11M player.

For example, I'd rather trade Wall + Oubre for Kawhi Leonard, than trade Beal + Porter for Kawhi Leonard.

[Wizardspride]

I think you guys are undervaluing Wall/Beal/Otto. If Wall entered camp healthy we're likely a three/four/five seed.

In complete agreement.

Give me this John Wall (healthy, lighter and just a blur), A Bradley Beal who doesn't have to carry the load, a developing Sato etc etc and I'll take my chances.

[DCZards]

It seems to me that one of the chief reasons we're having this discussion is one person--Oubre. If Oubre had continued on the trajectory he appeared to be on earlier in this season, I suspect we'd be a lot more optimistic about the Zards future core of Beal, Wall, Porter AND Oubre.

Because Oubre has regressed the last 2-3 months we can't really be sure that he'll ever be a significant part of that core.

If there's a silver lining it's that Kelly reportedly has a good work ethic. So, hopefully, he'll continue to improve and get back on that positive trajectory we saw glimpses of earlier. There's already been steady improvement in KO's ability to use his off hand and attack the basket. A lot of what KO needs to do though is mental...including slowing down and letting the game come to him.

Not saying we don't desperately need a young athletic rim protector and rebounder, but that's something the Zards might potentially get in the draft.

Keep hope alive.