Wizards Off-season Thread (2018)

[FAH1223]

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[NatP4]

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[FAH1223]

Wizards should target Kevon Looney. Warriors didn't opt into his 4th year of his rookie contract.

[nate33]

Wizards should target Kevon Looney. Warriors didn't opt into his 4th year of his rookie contract.

Because we need a 4th center who can't hit from the perimeter. $35M spent at the position just isn't enough.

Seriously, Looney looks like a playable role player who doesn't kill you when he switches out onto a perimeter player. But he's not all that good either. I'd take him at a vet minimum salary, but we have don't have the luxtax flexibility to be bidding on a guy like that.

[Rafael122]

Wanted to get your guys' thoughts on this. I posted this on BF:

Trade Ian and #15 to Atlanta for #30 and #34. Draft Wagner at #30, and Jevon Carter at #34.

Mavericks strike out on the big men in free agency but they do draft Bamba, but you figure they need a 1 year stop gap. Wizards trade Gortat to Dallas for a heavily protected 2nd round pick.

I have us at roughly $5.5 million of salary cap space. I would sign Noel to a 2 year/$11 million contract. I think he will be that cheap. I fully believe Dallas has intentionally tanked his market so they can sign him on the cheap. Player option on the 2nd year.

Because we're under the cap and we used our cap space on Noel, I believe we have access to the room exception. I would sign Seth Curry and hope he bounces back from his tibia injury.

Lastly, per an article I saw, the Wiz didn't use the BAE on Meeks. So we have that available, I'd shore up the center spot unless we think Noel/Morris/Wagner manning the 5 will work. If you're comfortable with that, they could look into signing a guy like Doug McDermott for shooting purposes.

It's not a championship team, it's not a 50 win team, but we get significantly younger and more athletic. We keep our 2019 pick, and if Sato/Morris are gone, you still have 8/9 guys on the roster already and full use of the MLE to shore up the roster.

[NatP4]

not a bad idea if SGA and Zhaire Smith are off the board at 15. I'd take Okobo at 30 and Wagner at 34. Gary Clark at 44. Sign Noel. Mavs aren't going to let Seth Curry go, but Hezonja is nice target that is unrestricted because the Magic are stupid as hell and we have a good friend and former teammate of his on the wizards in Satoransky. sign a couple undrafted guys, maybe Rodions Kurucs, another international shooter. Devonte Graham also. buyout that last year on Meeks. dump Morris instead of Gortat.

Wall Sato Graham
Beal Okobo
Oubre Hezonja Kurucs
Porter Clark A White
Noel Wagner Gortat Smith

some international flavor in Okobo/Sato/Mario/Wagner/Kurucs, plenty of youth, Wall is the oldest player in the rotation.

[80sballboy]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2778590-building-every-nba-teams-free-agency-whiteboard-ahead-of-offseason?share=other#slide20

Washington Wizards
30 OF 30

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press
Plan A: Mike Scott

Wizards All-Star point guard John Wall has high hopes for this summer.

"Just got to add some pieces," Wall said, per NBC Sports Washington's Chase Hughes. "A lot, to be honest."

Washington's front office could respond with a simple, sobering inquiry—"Where's the money, John?"

Before the team spends a cent this summer, it's already roughly $7 million above the tax line, per The Athletic's Danny Leroux. The money pool is shallow enough that the Wizards might be less worried about adding pieces and more concerned with keeping what they have.

Scott was a revelation this season after finishing the last one mostly outside the Association. He'll always be a streaky scorer, but he just showed how he can work in an instant-offense role. He pumped in 17.1 points per 36 minutes while shooting at career rates from the field (52.7 percent) and outside (40.5).



Plan B: Shabazz Napier

Should Washington go shopping with the midlevel exception, it may focus on finding a sturdier sub behind Wall (whose campaign was half-erased by knee surgery and other ailments). Washington's net efficiency dropped 4.7 points per 100 possessions without its lead guard.

While Napier's track record could be cause for concern, it's possible this season will be a springboard to the type of career once predicted for the first-rounder. He not only posted personal best percentages from the field (42.0) and three (37.6), he did so while launching more than ever. He's not a prolific passer, but pairing him with Tomas Satoransky could cover that up.



Plan C: Treveon Graham

The Wizards look light on the wings, even if Jodie Meeks exercises his player option. The starters—Otto Porter and Markieff Morris—are solid, but Kelly Oubre makes up most of the depth behind them.

Since Washington is shopping on a strict budget, the pickings are slim. But Graham could be an interesting target if there's a way to price him out of Charlotte. He can play and defend the 2, 3 and 4 spots, and the small sample of his deep shooting looks encouraging (43.8 percent).

[NatP4]

My whiteboard says target Hezonja, Noel, Curry. Try to dump Mahinmi+Gortat+Morris anywhere you can.

Ernie’s whiteboard probably says trade our 2nd rounder+Smith to avoid the tax, sign Napier (who is awful) to take Satos minutes. Sign Graham (who is also terrible, to take Oubre’s minutes.

[trast66]

Wow, how depressing if that is our Plans A,B, and C.

[NatP4]

One can dream:

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Would be 10 wins better than Brooks in his first year.

[BigA]

One can dream:

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Would be 10 wins better than Brooks in his first year.

As a U-M guy, I'm hoping this just results in big raises for Beilein and his staff.

[nate33]

Wanted to get your guys' thoughts on this. I posted this on BF:

Trade Ian and #15 to Atlanta for #30 and #34. Draft Wagner at #30, and Jevon Carter at #34.

Mavericks strike out on the big men in free agency but they do draft Bamba, but you figure they need a 1 year stop gap. Wizards trade Gortat to Dallas for a heavily protected 2nd round pick.

I have us at roughly $5.5 million of salary cap space. I would sign Noel to a 2 year/$11 million contract. I think he will be that cheap. I fully believe Dallas has intentionally tanked his market so they can sign him on the cheap. Player option on the 2nd year.

Because we're under the cap and we used our cap space on Noel, I believe we have access to the room exception. I would sign Seth Curry and hope he bounces back from his tibia injury.

Lastly, per an article I saw, the Wiz didn't use the BAE on Meeks. So we have that available, I'd shore up the center spot unless we think Noel/Morris/Wagner manning the 5 will work. If you're comfortable with that, they could look into signing a guy like Doug McDermott for shooting purposes.

It's not a championship team, it's not a 50 win team, but we get significantly younger and more athletic. We keep our 2019 pick, and if Sato/Morris are gone, you still have 8/9 guys on the roster already and full use of the MLE to shore up the roster.

If we could give Gortat away to Dallas for nothing, I'd probably just do that and not bother with that Mahinmi trade. With Gortat gone, there's enough luxtax room to make that same offer for Noel, only we'd also get to keep our draft pick.

I honestly don't think we can unload Gortat's contract so easily. With that in mind, I'd be willing to do your Mahinmi trade and then go sign Noel with the MLE. Then use the BAE on more depth.

Bottom line, there really isn't reason to go out of our way to dump both Mahinmi AND Gortat. Dumping one solves our immediate luxtax crunch and gives us the ability to use the MLE.

[FAH1223]

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[Ruzious]

Nerlens makes sense IF they stretch Mahinmi, and he's willing to settle for a reasonable price. Remember, he turned down $70 mil over 4 years from Dallas. That was... a mistake. Nerlens would be a major upgrade over Mahinmi.

[Rafael122]

Nerlens makes sense IF they stretch Mahinmi, and he's willing to settle for a reasonable price. Remember, he turned down $70 mil over 4 years from Dallas. That was... a mistake. Nerlens would be a major upgrade over Mahinmi.

Nerlens Noel stock is down, if he got more than $10 million per I'd be shocked. He needs to rehabilitate his value.

[80sballboy]

No shocker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/06/12/jodie-meeks-reportedly-will-return-to-wizards-for-2018-19-season/?utm_term=.cfbde76d148f

[gravytrain24]

No shocker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/06/12/jodie-meeks-reportedly-will-return-to-wizards-for-2018-19-season/?utm_term=.cfbde76d148f

He's smart to announce this while everyone is celebrating the Caps, meanwhile Wiz are short 3.5 million and no one will trade for an old PED user.

[80sballboy]

No shocker.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/06/12/jodie-meeks-reportedly-will-return-to-wizards-for-2018-19-season/?utm_term=.cfbde76d148f

He's smart to announce this while everyone is celebrating the Caps, meanwhile Wiz are short 3.5 million and no one will trade for an old PED user.

They won't have to pay about a 1/4 of that due to the 19-game suspension so that's more like 2.7?

[80sballboy]

From ESPN Insider, Bobby Marks updated off-season outlook

8:23 AM ET
Bobby Marks

The Washington Wizards are trending south.

One year removed from winning 49 games and losing in the Eastern Conference semifinals to the Boston Celtics in seven games, the Wizards saw a decrease in wins (43) and suffered a first-round exit to the Toronto Raptors.

With the Wizards now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Washington this offseason.


The cost associated with the product
When the Wizards' front office does a rewind of the season, they will see a team that underachieved despite having the fifth-highest payroll in the league and paying the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

The good news is the three players who combine to earn $70 million next season -- John Wall (27 years old), Bradley Beal (24) and Otto Porter Jr. (24) -- are beginning or in the prime of their careers. Wall and Beal comprise one of the best backcourts in the NBA, and Porter complements both.

However, after playing five seasons together, the team has failed out to get past the Eastern Conference semifinals and appears to have stagnated.

Is that result a product of a lack of on-court chemistry between the three? The inability to construct a roster of role players? Or injuries, most noticeably the 41 games Wall missed this season because of a left knee injury?

While one can pick apart the relationship between Wall and Beal, the reality is both players are married to one another through at least the 2020-21 season. The Wall contract is basically untradeable based on the $37.6 million average salary and the questions about a possible recurrence with his knee. That should be a concern for prospective teams, especially since he is a year away from his super-max extension kicking in.

Beal came in at No. 8 in ESPN's top 25 NBA players under age 25 and has missed only five games over the previous two seasons after durability concerns consumed his first three seasons. The remaining $80 million on his contract is justified given the on-court results.

Which leads us to Porter. After matching the $107 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets last summer, Porter is eligible to be traded in July. Could Washington's front office treat the small forward as a trade asset to balance the roster?

The answer will likely come if there is confidence (and trust) that reserve Kelly Oubre Jr. can be the starter at small forward. Oubre Jr. is eligible for extension and has seen his role increase since his rookie season. However, the small forward at times has displayed the immaturity that concerned teams when he was coming out of Kansas.

The expiring contracts
There is an exercise teams go through when it comes to turning over the roster with little flexibility known as free agency in a trade.

A team will take players on an expiring contract -- in this case, likely starting big men Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris -- and trade them for players with longer guaranteed contracts. The thinking is that because both players are set to become free agents in 2019, Washington could find their replacements through a trade since they will not have the flexibility to sign their replacements in free agency.

Where teams find themselves in trouble is the cost associated.

Washington already has $111 million guaranteed in 2019-20 with just six players under contract. Remember, that is before a possible new Oubre Jr. contract. Adding salary to the cost already committed would likely put the Wizards in the luxury tax for a third consecutive season, which is something the front office will have a hard time selling to ownership.

The question that ownership will ask is: Can we stay under the tax and find their replacements in the draft while remaining competitive?

If the answer is yes, which it should be, Washington will do its 2019 free-agent shopping in the draft and not in a trade.

Salary-cap breakdown
2018-19 Salary Breakdown
PLAYER 2018-19
1. Otto Porter $26,011,913
2. Bradley Beal $25,434,263
3. John Wall $19,169,800
4. Ian Mahinmi $15,944,154
5. Marcin Gortat $13,565,218
6. Markieff Morris $8,600,000
7. Jason Smith $5,450,000
8. Jodie Meeks $3,454,500
9. Tomas Satoransky $3,129,187
10. Kelly Oubre $3,208,630
11. First-rounder (first-round hold) $1,974,480
12. Tim Frazier 1 (free-agent hold) $3,800,000
13. Chris McCullough 2 (free-agent hold) $2,243,326
14. Ramon Sessions 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
15. Ty Lawson 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Mike Scott 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
Martell Webster (waiver) $833,333
Total $138.0 million
Luxury tax $123.0 million (projected)
1. Early Bird rights
2. Fourth-year restriction
3. Non-Bird rights
The Wizards front office has work to do this offseason.

Faced with a second consecutive season of being in the luxury tax in 2018-19, this time at a higher cost, Washington will have to be creative with little flexibility to improve upon its roster.

When free agency begins, Washington, barring a draft-night trade, has $127 million in guaranteed salary, which is $4 million above the tax threshold ($123 million).

The projected $6 million tax penalty projects to jump to $14.5 million if minimum-salary free agents are signed to the remaining three roster spots. Using the full tax midlevel exception would cost Washington an additional $9 million in penalties.

Washington will get tax relief when Jodie Meeks serves the remainder of his suspension. The projected tax credit will save the Wizards $500,000.

Also keep in mind the John Wall super-max extension signed last summer does not kick in until 2019-20.

The Wizards project to be over the salary cap in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Restrictions
The two high-priced signings last summer, Wall and Porter, will have their trade restrictions lifted. Based on signing a super-max extension, Wall will have his trade restriction removed on July 26. Porter, signed to an offer sheet by Brooklyn that was eventually matched by Washington, is eligible to be traded on July 8.

Both players also have a 15 percent trade bonus in their contract. The Wall bonus is valued at $21.2 million and is the largest active bonus in the NBA. However, because the bonus would exceed the maximum allowed in the first year of his extension (2019-20), it will be reduced to a projected $5 million. The pro-rated bonus would be added to his $19 million salary for next season if he were to be traded. The bonus for Porter would be voided because it would exceed the maximum salary allowed in 2018-19.

The free-agent focus
A career year from reserve Mike Scott is likely going to cost Washington arguably its top reserve.

Scott, signed to the minimum exception last season, has non-Bird rights, and Washington will likely have to use part or all of its $5.4 million tax midlevel exception to bring him back.

The 19 games remaining from Meeks' 25-game suspension leaves the Wizards with a void coming off the bench for the first quarter of the year. Washington does get roster relief to carry a 16th player (if it keeps 15) until Meeks does return, but it comes at a per day luxury-tax penalty.

Because Washington has the minimum exception, both backup shooting guard and power forward will likely be addressed in the draft and not in free agency.

Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Oubre Jr., almost half the roster in Washington is extension eligible.

Out of the five eligible players -- Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Tomas Satoransky and Jason Smith -- Satoransky would be the only player who would merit a conversation.

The draft assets
Trades to acquire Markieff Morris and Bojan Bogdanovic in previous seasons depleted the Wizards' first-round picks over the past two drafts. But after standing pat at the 2018 trade deadline, Washington will select in the first round for the first time since drafting Oubre Jr. in 2015.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington picking in the 2018 draft:

No. 15 (own): Robert Williams | PF/C | Texas A&M

No. 44 (own): Omari Spellman | PF | Villanova

The Wizards in the future have all their own first-round picks.

[gravytrain24]

From ESPN Insider, Bobby Marks updated off-season outlook

8:23 AM ET
Bobby Marks

The Washington Wizards are trending south.

One year removed from winning 49 games and losing in the Eastern Conference semifinals to the Boston Celtics in seven games, the Wizards saw a decrease in wins (43) and suffered a first-round exit to the Toronto Raptors.

With the Wizards now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Washington this offseason.


The cost associated with the product
When the Wizards' front office does a rewind of the season, they will see a team that underachieved despite having the fifth-highest payroll in the league and paying the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

The good news is the three players who combine to earn $70 million next season -- John Wall (27 years old), Bradley Beal (24) and Otto Porter Jr. (24) -- are beginning or in the prime of their careers. Wall and Beal comprise one of the best backcourts in the NBA, and Porter complements both.

However, after playing five seasons together, the team has failed out to get past the Eastern Conference semifinals and appears to have stagnated.

Is that result a product of a lack of on-court chemistry between the three? The inability to construct a roster of role players? Or injuries, most noticeably the 41 games Wall missed this season because of a left knee injury?

While one can pick apart the relationship between Wall and Beal, the reality is both players are married to one another through at least the 2020-21 season. The Wall contract is basically untradeable based on the $37.6 million average salary and the questions about a possible recurrence with his knee. That should be a concern for prospective teams, especially since he is a year away from his super-max extension kicking in.

Beal came in at No. 8 in ESPN's top 25 NBA players under age 25 and has missed only five games over the previous two seasons after durability concerns consumed his first three seasons. The remaining $80 million on his contract is justified given the on-court results.

Which leads us to Porter. After matching the $107 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets last summer, Porter is eligible to be traded in July. Could Washington's front office treat the small forward as a trade asset to balance the roster?

The answer will likely come if there is confidence (and trust) that reserve Kelly Oubre Jr. can be the starter at small forward. Oubre Jr. is eligible for extension and has seen his role increase since his rookie season. However, the small forward at times has displayed the immaturity that concerned teams when he was coming out of Kansas.

The expiring contracts
There is an exercise teams go through when it comes to turning over the roster with little flexibility known as free agency in a trade.

A team will take players on an expiring contract -- in this case, likely starting big men Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris -- and trade them for players with longer guaranteed contracts. The thinking is that because both players are set to become free agents in 2019, Washington could find their replacements through a trade since they will not have the flexibility to sign their replacements in free agency.

Where teams find themselves in trouble is the cost associated.

Washington already has $111 million guaranteed in 2019-20 with just six players under contract. Remember, that is before a possible new Oubre Jr. contract. Adding salary to the cost already committed would likely put the Wizards in the luxury tax for a third consecutive season, which is something the front office will have a hard time selling to ownership.

The question that ownership will ask is: Can we stay under the tax and find their replacements in the draft while remaining competitive?

If the answer is yes, which it should be, Washington will do its 2019 free-agent shopping in the draft and not in a trade.

Salary-cap breakdown
2018-19 Salary Breakdown
PLAYER 2018-19
1. Otto Porter $26,011,913
2. Bradley Beal $25,434,263
3. John Wall $19,169,800
4. Ian Mahinmi $15,944,154
5. Marcin Gortat $13,565,218
6. Markieff Morris $8,600,000
7. Jason Smith $5,450,000
8. Jodie Meeks $3,454,500
9. Tomas Satoransky $3,129,187
10. Kelly Oubre $3,208,630
11. First-rounder (first-round hold) $1,974,480
12. Tim Frazier 1 (free-agent hold) $3,800,000
13. Chris McCullough 2 (free-agent hold) $2,243,326
14. Ramon Sessions 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
15. Ty Lawson 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Mike Scott 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
Martell Webster (waiver) $833,333
Total $138.0 million
Luxury tax $123.0 million (projected)
1. Early Bird rights
2. Fourth-year restriction
3. Non-Bird rights
The Wizards front office has work to do this offseason.

Faced with a second consecutive season of being in the luxury tax in 2018-19, this time at a higher cost, Washington will have to be creative with little flexibility to improve upon its roster.

When free agency begins, Washington, barring a draft-night trade, has $127 million in guaranteed salary, which is $4 million above the tax threshold ($123 million).

The projected $6 million tax penalty projects to jump to $14.5 million if minimum-salary free agents are signed to the remaining three roster spots. Using the full tax midlevel exception would cost Washington an additional $9 million in penalties.

Washington will get tax relief when Jodie Meeks serves the remainder of his suspension. The projected tax credit will save the Wizards $500,000.

Also keep in mind the John Wall super-max extension signed last summer does not kick in until 2019-20.

The Wizards project to be over the salary cap in 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Restrictions
The two high-priced signings last summer, Wall and Porter, will have their trade restrictions lifted. Based on signing a super-max extension, Wall will have his trade restriction removed on July 26. Porter, signed to an offer sheet by Brooklyn that was eventually matched by Washington, is eligible to be traded on July 8.

Both players also have a 15 percent trade bonus in their contract. The Wall bonus is valued at $21.2 million and is the largest active bonus in the NBA. However, because the bonus would exceed the maximum allowed in the first year of his extension (2019-20), it will be reduced to a projected $5 million. The pro-rated bonus would be added to his $19 million salary for next season if he were to be traded. The bonus for Porter would be voided because it would exceed the maximum salary allowed in 2018-19.

The free-agent focus
A career year from reserve Mike Scott is likely going to cost Washington arguably its top reserve.

Scott, signed to the minimum exception last season, has non-Bird rights, and Washington will likely have to use part or all of its $5.4 million tax midlevel exception to bring him back.

The 19 games remaining from Meeks' 25-game suspension leaves the Wizards with a void coming off the bench for the first quarter of the year. Washington does get roster relief to carry a 16th player (if it keeps 15) until Meeks does return, but it comes at a per day luxury-tax penalty.

Because Washington has the minimum exception, both backup shooting guard and power forward will likely be addressed in the draft and not in free agency.

Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Oubre Jr., almost half the roster in Washington is extension eligible.

Out of the five eligible players -- Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Tomas Satoransky and Jason Smith -- Satoransky would be the only player who would merit a conversation.

The draft assets
Trades to acquire Markieff Morris and Bojan Bogdanovic in previous seasons depleted the Wizards' first-round picks over the past two drafts. But after standing pat at the 2018 trade deadline, Washington will select in the first round for the first time since drafting Oubre Jr. in 2015.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington picking in the 2018 draft:

No. 15 (own): Robert Williams | PF/C | Texas A&M

No. 44 (own): Omari Spellman | PF | Villanova

The Wizards in the future have all their own first-round picks.

Depressing