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The Troy Brown Thread

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#441 » by dckingsfan » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:26 pm

payitforward wrote:Shamet went #26.

Oh, & the Hawks didn't have the #27 pick.

Otherwise you've nailed it! :)

Doesn't matter really... I was thinking our #15 to the Sixers for their #s 26 & 38. Or to the Hawks for their #s30 & 34 -- which could have brought Spellman/Robinson.

hehehe - guess I wasn't even close :D

I guess my point is - you would have to be pretty gifted to know to trade down for those two players. Doable, but not by the previous GM whose name shall be repeated.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#442 » by nate33 » Fri Jul 5, 2019 7:51 pm

Reposting from the Summer League thread:

queridiculo wrote:Easy to forget, Troy Brown Jr. hasn't even turned 20 yet.

Agreed.

People want to write Brown off as just a role player because he didn't do all that much in his rookie season. Remember that the Wizards ALWAYS bring along their new draft picks slowly (well, ever since Beal, at least). Porter didn't play his rookie year. Oubre didn't play his rookie year.

Indeed, in the limited minutes available, Brown significantly outplayed the first seasons of both Oubre and Porter, despite being a year younger and playing without Wall to take off some of the defensive pressure. And he played the most minutes:

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Brown might be the best of the trio.

Things really started to click with Porter midway through his second season and he was exceptional by his third year. If Brown follows the same path, we have another building block.

Looking deep into Brown's numbers, there really is a lot to like. The 19-year-old had almost a 3:1 A/TO ratio! Look at his foul rate compared to Oubre and Porter. And he rebounds as well as Oubre and Porter (both of whom are exceptional rebounders at the SF position). All the high bball IQ indicators are there. If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#443 » by Illuminaire » Fri Jul 5, 2019 8:19 pm

nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#444 » by nate33 » Sat Jul 6, 2019 12:33 am

Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.

I don't think it's that big of an if. His shot isn't broken. He's not like MKG or Tony Allen or something. He may never be a lethal 3-point shooter like Porter, but I'm pretty confident he'll get his 3P% up to the 34-37% range - enough that teams will have to guard him out there.

He actually showed some pretty significant improvement throughout the season last year. Over the first five months of the season, he was 5/19 from 3-point range in 227 total minutes. That's 26% on 4.0 attempts per 48 minutes. In March and April, he made 17/50 from 3-point range in 504 total minutes. That's 34% on 4.8 attempts per 48 minutes. Increasing his attempts and percentages throughout the season is a good sign.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#445 » by dckingsfan » Sat Jul 6, 2019 6:25 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illuminaire wrote:
nate33 wrote:If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


That's the big IF. I wish him the best, and hope he works hard to improve. The low FT% is a bad sign, but Porter managed to significantly improve both his FT% and long range shooting between years one and three. If Troy shows a similar trajectory, he would become an outstanding combo guard/wing.

I don't think it's that big of an if. His shot isn't broken. He's not like MKG or Tony Allen or something. He may never be a lethal 3-point shooter like Porter, but I'm pretty confident he'll get his 3P% up to the 34-37% range - enough that teams will have to guard him out there.

He actually showed some pretty significant improvement throughout the season last year. Over the first five months of the season, he was 5/19 from 3-point range in 227 total minutes. That's 26% on 4.0 attempts per 48 minutes. In March and April, he made 17/50 from 3-point range in 504 total minutes. That's 34% on 4.8 attempts per 48 minutes. Increasing his attempts and percentages throughout the season is a good sign.

And just going by this - I think a .370 should be expected.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#446 » by Illuminaire » Sun Jul 7, 2019 1:09 am

He only shot 29% from the college three, with a sample size of 110 shots.

Why should the last 50 shots of his first NBA season be considered more significant than his first 19? What if he'd missed two shots more during that last 50... would you instead be arguing that the first 19 were more important, since the percentage was higher?

He could certainly improve. It would be great if he did. I'm sure he's doing everything he can to make that happen. But this is a hope - nothing more. His past performance provides only the slightest indication that improvement is happening.

So yes. It's a big IF.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#447 » by FAH1223 » Sun Jul 7, 2019 5:46 pm

He’s developing

Looked good last night in first SL game
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#448 » by trast66 » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:08 pm

nate33 wrote:Reposting from the Summer League thread:

queridiculo wrote:Easy to forget, Troy Brown Jr. hasn't even turned 20 yet.

Agreed.

People want to write Brown off as just a role player because he didn't do all that much in his rookie season. Remember that the Wizards ALWAYS bring along their new draft picks slowly (well, ever since Beal, at least). Porter didn't play his rookie year. Oubre didn't play his rookie year.

Indeed, in the limited minutes available, Brown significantly outplayed the first seasons of both Oubre and Porter, despite being a year younger and playing without Wall to take off some of the defensive pressure. And he played the most minutes:

Image

Brown might be the best of the trio.

Things really started to click with Porter midway through his second season and he was exceptional by his third year. If Brown follows the same path, we have another building block.

Looking deep into Brown's numbers, there really is a lot to like. The 19-year-old had almost a 3:1 A/TO ratio! Look at his foul rate compared to Oubre and Porter. And he rebounds as well as Oubre and Porter (both of whom are exceptional rebounders at the SF position). All the high bball IQ indicators are there. If his shot comes around, the young man is going to be good.


Will be interesting to see if red shirt rookie year for Rui this year, Tommy might look at that practice differently than Ernie.

I think Troy’s stroke is fine, he’s just has a very slow release. He can probably hit open 3 pointers all day in practice but not off the bounce or anyone within 4 feet. Seems like he enjoys playing basketball ball so I’m hopeful he will get to be serviceable in this area over the next 2 seasons.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#449 » by nate33 » Mon Jul 8, 2019 6:14 pm

trast66 wrote:Will be interesting to see if red shirt rookie year for Rui this year, Tommy might look at that practice differently than Ernie.

I think Troy’s stroke is fine, he’s just has a very slow release. He can probably hit open 3 pointers all day in practice but not off the bounce or anyone within 4 feet. Seems like he enjoys playing basketball ball so I’m hopeful he will get to be serviceable in this area over the next 2 seasons.

Given the lack of power forwards on the roster, I'm thinking that the Wizards will definitely play Hachimura his rookie year.

They redshirted Brown, Oubre and Porter because they were trying to make the playoffs, but they didn't redshirt Beal or Wall. I'd say this year will be more like Beal or Wall's rookie year.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#450 » by payitforward » Mon Jul 8, 2019 7:49 pm

Porter was injured his rookie year....
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#451 » by closg00 » Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:06 am

Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#452 » by FAH1223 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:03 pm

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#453 » by CntOutSmrtCrazy » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:45 pm

closg00 wrote:Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.


I dunno, the Troy analysis was meh. Who here is really down about picking him at 15 with revisionist history/contextual evaluation aside? Draft evaluations after one year hold very little weight when we are talking about where he was selected. Though I get it, you have to put content up.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#454 » by nate33 » Fri Jul 26, 2019 6:55 pm

CntOutSmrtCrazy wrote:
closg00 wrote:Probably a little unfair, both Mo and Troy are on the list.


I dunno, the Troy analysis was meh. Who here is really down about picking him at 15 with revisionist history/contextual evaluation aside? Draft evaluations after one year hold very little weight when we are talking about where he was selected. Though I get it, you have to put content up.

Agreed. Mitchell Robinson is the only guy picked lower than Brown ewho either is or projects to be clearly better than Brown. A couple of lower picks had arguably better seasons (Shamet, Huerter, Holiday), but after factoring their age (2.5 years older, 1 year older, and 3 years older respectively), I'm still feeling pretty good about the Brown pick.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#455 » by payitforward » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:28 pm

Brown has a shot to be a good player. That doesn't mean he was a good pick at #15.

A draft pick is an asset. When you get the most possible benefit from using that asset, you have done well in the draft. This is separate from the question whether someone is a good player.

For clarity: in 2011, the Cavs had the #4 pick in the draft. They chose Tristan Thompson. He has had a really good NBA career so far. Thompson is an excellent player.

OTOH, it seems quite likely that Cleveland could have traded that #4 pick to SA for their #15 & #29 picks in the same draft. Kawhi Leonard went #15. Jimmy Butler went #30 (hence could have been taken @#29). Had Cleveland made that move, we could say they had gotten the most possible benefit from having the #4 pick.

That doesn't change the fact that Tristan Thompson has been a terrific player. But it does reflect on the pick of Tristan Thompson.

A player is one thing; a pick is another & very different thing.
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