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The Troy Brown Thread

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Re: RE: Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#321 » by DCZards » Thu Aug 9, 2018 4:56 pm

payitforward wrote:
What's my point? Well, obviously, we live in a different world these days. Right now Dat (to use him as my example) has access to comprehensive statistics & powerful tools to analyze them. He can watch a huge amount of video of any player. Broken down just about any way to illustrate player pluses or minuses.

In short, Dat has more information about an NBA draft prospect than the Warriors GM had in '83. He has more or less the same information about a prospect as the Wizards FO has. Now, this is not just true about basketball, obviously. We live in a world in which everybody has instant access to an enormous body of information.


This is not even close to being true. While I agree that Dat and the rest of us have access to a ton more information on a player than we did say 20 or 30 years ago, teams and GMs still have a lot more info on a player than we do. As fans, we have access to at most 60%-70% of the info and intel that GMs and front offices have access to.

Here are just some of the things that Dat and the rest of us don’t have access to that teams and FOs have access to when evaluating prospects: Personal interviews and workouts with players; combines; the opportunity to speak to college coaches who coached a player as well as those who coached against him; a player’s medical records; and probably a lot more. In addition, I would assume that a GM & FO would watch and analyze a LOT more film on a player than Dat or anyone else on this board would have the time or energy to watch/analyze.
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Re: RE: Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#322 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 9, 2018 5:53 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:
What's my point? Well, obviously, we live in a different world these days. Right now Dat (to use him as my example) has access to comprehensive statistics & powerful tools to analyze them. He can watch a huge amount of video of any player. Broken down just about any way to illustrate player pluses or minuses.

In short, Dat has more information about an NBA draft prospect than the Warriors GM had in '83. He has more or less the same information about a prospect as the Wizards FO has. Now, this is not just true about basketball, obviously. We live in a world in which everybody has instant access to an enormous body of information.


This is not even close to being true. While I agree that Dat and the rest of us have access to a ton more information on a player than we did say 20 or 30 years ago, teams and GMs still have a lot more info on a player than we do. As fans, we have access to at most 60%-70% of the info and intel that GMs and front offices have access to.

Here are just some of the things that Dat and the rest of us don’t have access to that teams and FOs have access to when evaluating prospects: Personal interviews and workouts with players; combines; the opportunity to speak to college coaches who coached a player as well as those who coached against him; a player’s medical records; and probably a lot more. In addition, I would assume that a GM & FO would watch and analyze a LOT more film on a player than Dat or anyone else on this board would have the time or energy to watch/analyze.

I did say that there were some kinds of information we don't have the same access to. So, sure, I agree w/ what you write to some degree.

As to watching footage... I don't know, Zards Dat is a dedicated guy! :) Plus, more seriously, the positive result of watching/analyzing film has to be seen in the success of the players. If you watch a ton of film, & then you pick Chris Singleton over a pretty sizable list of much better players, maybe you are not so good at your job?

Another way to look at it: we all now have access to sufficient information that it turns out to be predictive of success at a high rate. In fact, 80% of what you need is in the numbers themselves, the statistics. There are certainly some false positives (guys with good numbers who aren't successful in the league), but there are virtually no false negatives (guys with bad numbers who turn out to be good NBA players). &, as I say, there wasn't even easy access to those numbers 3 decades ago.

It's not clear that personal interviews/workouts & talks w/ coaches actually provide information that's predictive of a prospect's level of success. I.e it can't just be asserted.

Moreover, surely you have to bring criteria to that stuff in order to weigh its meaning. For example, you might be more concerned not to draft a bust & less concerned to draft the guy w/ the most potential. Or the reverse. High floor vs. high ceiling.

Interviews would seem to be important in weighing that kind of issue. And, if the media has it right, apparently Troy Brown's interviews/workout were a big factor in the Wizards decision to take him. So, maybe this means they didn't necessarily view him as the best prospect but rather the surest prospect available at #15.

Who knows? But at that level decisions are not just off of the numbers. They can make sense, why not? Or be foolish -- lets say if you over-estimate how good the players you have are? You're drafting, say, to support them. Or, you may be more concerned with being a respectable team (average or a bit better) & not really aim at contending for a title.

Btw, I believe it was the interview & workout that led us to take Kwame Brown over Tyson Chandler.
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Re: RE: Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#323 » by Kanyewest » Thu Aug 9, 2018 8:08 pm

payitforward wrote:
Btw, I believe it was the interview & workout that led us to take Kwame Brown over Tyson Chandler.


Yeah, I remember people at the Post citing how intelligent Brown was and how he dismantled Chandler 1 vs. 1.

Of course sometimes having a good workout ends out working out as it did with Klay Thompson and the Warriors and other teams.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#324 » by PerkinsFor3 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:28 am

Why isnt he on the rookie photo?
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Re: RE: Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#325 » by The Consiglieri » Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:15 am

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:...The trade scenarios you've painted look good in the fantasy world that we fans live in...

I want to comment on what I think (perhaps incorrectly) is the POV behind this phrase. I started thinking about this comment a month or so ago when Zards made a similar comment about opinions held by "guys on a message board." This is, however, not intended as a criticism of Zards -- rather, it's about the strange & interesting world in which we live.

In 1983 I lived in SF & was a Warriors fan. That year, with the 6th pick in the draft, the team took a kid named Russell Cross out of Purdue. From the first time he stepped on the court in a Warriors uniform it was obvious that he would be a bust. For one thing, he had bad knees. For another, he was a complete stiff. The two facts might have been related.

It turned out that no one in the Warriors organization had ever seen Russell Cross play before drafting him! There wasn't much college basketball on TV back then. There was no video archive on players. There was no source of player statistics. NBA teams didn't employ full-time player-evaluation people. By and large teams relied on player reports from independent scouts. Professionals. Experts. & that's how the Warriors picked Russell Cross.

What's my point? Well, obviously, we live in a different world these days. Right now Dat (to use him as my example) has access to comprehensive statistics & powerful tools to analyze them. He can watch a huge amount of video of any player. Broken down just about any way to illustrate player pluses or minuses.

In short, Dat has more information about an NBA draft prospect than the Warriors GM had in '83. He has more or less the same information about a prospect as the Wizards FO has. Now, this is not just true about basketball, obviously. We live in a world in which everybody has instant access to an enormous body of information.

For that reason, when the Wizards pick Jan Vesely & Dat mutters "why not Kawhi Leonard, you idiots," when they pick Chris Singleton while he screams "Harris or Butler," when they pick Satoransky as he pleads "Crowder, Green, Barton please," when they trade an asset for a shot at GRIII, when they sell R2 picks that would bring them good players they need, when they swap a lottery pick for Kieff, etc. etc. etc. -- the response that Dat's just a guy on a message board is irrelevant. Even though, sure, it's true.

Of course, Dat can be wrong too -- which he wouldn't deny. & obviously there will also be individual instances where a FO has information that Dat doesn't have access to.

But neither of these facts affect the overall point: if Dat (or CCJ, or PIF, or Ruz etc.) can call 'em over & over through the years, while Ernie & his staff stumble over & over, what this means, unambiguously, is that Ernie & his staff are basically incompetent. It's also a pretty good indication that Dat might be right when he opines that Troy Brown Jr. didn't rate high enough to be worth the #15 pick.

Above all, the response that his opinion is just another fan-world fantasy from some guy on a message board -- while Ernie & his crew are professionals dealing in "reality" -- carries no weight.

The fact that other franchises (e.g. the Warriors, the Spurs, etc.) do well in the draft, make trades that actually improve them, sign FAs that work out -- that, in essence, they can go from really bad to actually contending for and/or winning titles -- provides plenty of corroboration of the point. In 2009-10, two teams went 26-56. One of those teams rebuilt to great effect. The other... not so much.


To double down on this, there's a lot of whispers around that the reason the Hawks went full idiot with their trade down for Trae Young is essentially two fold: #1 to generate "excitement" and #2 to get their "Steph Curry". Over the years I've seen NBA teams draft two different point guards in the top ten and fail to draft the only one that was good (Curry), I've seen teams draft players for marketing purposes (Mugsy), I've seen teams forget to get their pick to the dais on time and lose the slot, I've seen teams let consensus #1 overall talents drop because of drug rumors, and take crap players over them instead that they never intended too (Dan Marino, Warren Sapp, and Tunsil), I've seen teams take inferior players just because they thought they'd be more likely to play for them than more talented players (MLB, all the time), I've seen teams that seem to have a Ghost in the Machine deliberately sabotaging draft after draft regardless of ownership/coaching/F.O.'s changes (NYJ), and I've seen teams hire analytics guys with a multi year plan to rebuild the team from scratch, only to s can the architect and hire a total hack to replace them, sabotaging the rebuild in the process (Sixers, and now the Browns, where their colossal dip---- GM, has already worked to destroy the cap space and massive draft pick haul the team under Brown built with grand Mal idiocy signings and trades (Tyrod Taylor when you're drafting Mayfield? Trading top 20 overall pick Corey Coleman, whose sole issue has been two season wrecking broken hands, for a conditional 2020 7th round hours before 4th round draft pick Callaway gets caught with weed in his car (about the 97th crime report/red flag for the kid in four years, he would have been a top 20 pick as well if not for the 8,372 arrests in his record, and btw, they kept drafted him to join a WR corps lead by all world Josh Gordon, whose played about 5 games in the past three years because of drug suspensions and seems ready to turn it around, but not exactly the best locker room for two guys who've been suspended 800 times for drugs) and horrible draft picks. So while the Sixers may still figure it out (hard not to with all that talent), the idiot they brought in to replace Hinkey totally botched the '17 draft, and then got s canned for his wife texting. All Hinke did was master the tank, fully understanding the law of the NBA: If you aren't contending, you better be tanking or finishing a superb rebuild that's about to have you contending), the Browns hired an idiot just like the Sixers did, who immediately set about destroying all the assets Sashi Brown had left in place for long suffering Cleveland Browns fans.

I could go on and on across literally every sport.

In the NHL our very own GMGM, who built about 3/4's of a powerhouse with Ovy, sabotaged the whole offing thing holding too tightly to draft picks at the wrong time, and then selling off superstar prospects for peanuts at others (the worst trade in Caps History remains the deal that sent Forsberg, future All Star, and absolute stud, for a bag of peanuts, and 1 goal (literally, that's basically what we got), in the NBA, well, we've seen the Unseld, and EG years, is their anything more inept or horrific? Baseball's a more difficult nut to crack, but you always have the opportunity to see epic brain dead delusional trades made year after year, in the NFL, literally 90% of the teams are run by total idiots, deathly afraid of breaking the rules (going for it on fourth), and willing to sabotage a super bowl appearance for the sake of not going against cliched (and mathematically unjustifiable) old stand by's liking taking the points (Green Bay's unconcscionable performance against Seattle a few years ago in the NFC Championship, a tour de force in grand Mal dip---- idiot coaching.

Look, they are indeed, idiots. They are. You don't have to believe me. Just look. There are people, just math geeks, that can tell you exactly what the math says to do and yet these meatheads plug their ears and scream, "nanananananana, not listening" and meanwhile, Bellichek doublechecks with his math geek for decades on 4th downs, and punt, field goal, or go for it scenarios. Gee, I wonder why? Could it be that bill couldn't give less of a ---- about second guessing and as a result, his decisions are actually based on logic, game theory, math etc.

In every way imaginable, we've now seen it. Guys drafted to fill the stands, for marketing, trades made, franchise decisions made in part based on a sense of what the public mood might be in response forgetting that winning is the only thing that ever guarantees anything in sports, not individual decisions and marketing.

It's been too long, too many years. Just watch the Elway/'83 30 for 30, that can get you inside as well.

They aren't geniuses, they aren't even better than us. Better than the typical fan? 9 out of 10? Definitely. Better than us? Um, no. I've been lurking and occasionally posting in the offseason for around 11 or 12 years. Needless to say, we can't even simulate the rebuild we would've had instead of EG's, because we would've gotten good too fast to actually have all the top 3 picks, and the other firsts that earnie systematically blew across the board (w/what, one exception in a decade?).

The only major difference between us and the F.O.'s is basically on the backstory with players (it's one of the reasons why the Bucs passed on Justin Blackmon-they had a PI watching him for months before the draft and word got back, guy can't stay out of bars, major, big time drinking problem), we don't have access to those sources, or necessarily the wealth of regional scout info that cam come too. To some degree, the depth area isn't always there in some sports, but the NBA? It's there.

How many of us would have gone full word I can't say in the '16 offseason after the delusional no chance in hell chance to sign Durant failed, and stumbled around like a drunken tourist in Vegas with way too much many to spend? The smart teams pocketed their money, the idiots went around throwing aircraft carrier sums of money at the FA equivalent of $2 hookers from the back end of the strip? Sure, a few would have, but most of us knew that failure to land Durant (obvious especially to those of us like me outside of DC, who don't get that halo effect that can delude locals) and Horford meant that the cap space was infinitely more valuable than the talentless hacks leftover who were about to get overpaid 4x over if not worse in future flexibility killing contracts by GM's looking to lock up job security, rather than future contention flexibility.

Again, I know these guys have info I don't have. I know they have contacts I don't have. I know they have information I don't have. I also know that most of them are flawed, self-entitled, talentless hacks, league lifers, just like the idiot who set about ruining the Sixers after the idiot ownership their fired Hinkie, ditto Cleveland. Ive seen too much in my 38 years of sports watching life to be deluded into thinking these guys have an edge on all of us. Some of us? Sure. All of us. No. And some of them are so incomprehensibly self-interested and idiotic it defies the imagination. For instance, Dallas, apparently missed out on multiple FA targets in part because of a family trip that put the Jones family out of touch with higher ups in the F.O. who couldn't act fast enough to address in part, WR issues. They couldn't reach the freaking Jones family in Carribbean. Literally that's part of the reason the Cowboys offseason was such a clusterflutch and as a result, their passing game looks likely to make Alex Smith seem like Dan Marino running the Air Coryell in comparison.

Yeah, not really so smart, are they?
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#326 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:41 pm

Wow.... Aside from the truth of what you write, I'm really glad someone has written a post so long that it makes me look concise!! Thank you! :)

Traditionally, basketball FOs have been run by & staffed with ex-players -- the logic being that these guys understand the game, so of course they will have an advantage when it comes to personnel decisions. Makes perfect sense.

Except, it doesn't. Being able to play the game well is essentially unrelated to knowing how to rank players' likelihood of doing the same. &, upon reflection, why should these things be related? The first reflects, in major part, physical attributes & abilities -- that don't enter into Front Office work!

As to "contacts" -- the problem is that their contacts are mostly with each other! & that fact is self-reinforcing.

Watch Ernie some time when he talks to anyone not one of his peers; it's obvious that he doesn't listen, thinks there's nothing for him to learn. There's an inner circle of people with relevant knowledge. If you're not in that circle, it's impossible for you to add any value. Of that, Ernie is 100% sure.

Yet, leaving out guys picked 1-3 in the draft, statistical regressions show no significant correlation between where a player was picked in the draft (or not picked, for that matter) & his performance.

After the first 3 picks NBA GMs have no demonstrable ability to rank players in order of their likely performance in the league.

They can pick Derrick Williams & Jan Vesely in the first 6, then they can pick Isaiah Thomas & E'Twaun Moore in the last 6.

They can pick Jimmer Fredette #10 & Jimmy Butler #30.

They can pick both Morris twins & leave Kawhi Leonard on the board.

They can pick Nolan Smith, Marshon Brooks, JaJuan Johnson, Jordan Hamilton & Norris Cole while leaving Shelvin Mack, Bojan Bogdanovic, Kyle Singler, Davis Bertans & Jon Leuer on the board.

They can pick Chris Singleton #18, then pass on Chandler Parsons for the next 20 picks!

...all in a single draft.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#327 » by GA34 » Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:46 pm

Chandler Parsons is a joke always has been but isn’t this a Troy Brown Jr thread ?
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#328 » by 80sballboy » Fri Aug 17, 2018 6:58 pm

GA34 wrote:Chandler Parsons is a joke always has been but isn’t this a Troy Brown Jr thread ?


It's been hijacked by the "ramblers". :D
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#329 » by The Consiglieri » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:53 pm

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#330 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sun Aug 19, 2018 5:56 am

GA34 wrote:Chandler Parsons is a joke always has been but isn’t this a Troy Brown Jr thread ?



WOW... you're right but I THOUGHT... that guy could play. He FOOLED ME... :crazy:

I remember really liking his game BEFORE he got the big contract.

Did he get hurt or was he always "suck'???? :noway:
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#331 » by doclinkin » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:33 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
GA34 wrote:Chandler Parsons is a joke always has been but isn’t this a Troy Brown Jr thread ?



WOW... you're right but I THOUGHT... that guy could play. He FOOLED ME... :crazy:

I remember really liking his game BEFORE he got the big contract.

Did he get hurt or was he always "suck'???? :noway:


Got hurt. Which commonly happens with white guys in the NBA that are known for being athletic. In his case he earned the epithet 'sneaky' athletic, but still, the maxim applies. Don't draft or rely on the 'athletic' white guy, he's gonna disappoint you.

To bring it back to the thread, I'm happy we went countermaxim with this pick and selected the heady black dude. Smarts and competitive fire are as much a talent as quick twitch muscles. I like the pick. Not sure who influenced the selection but this pick was an anti-Ernie selection. Ernie tends to fetishize the physical marvels in the draft and overlook in game talents. Dumb considering his career was about overcoming his own physical shortfall with guile and effort, but I guess he had an inferiority complex surrounded by bigger faster guys. In the draft he likes to swing for the fences and take the athlete over the player every time, hoping they will develop on court intelligence, since you cannot suddenly grow much physical talent this late in life. Maybe Paul George being the exception. But that sort of mind set is what nets us McGee, Young, Glen Rice Jr, Jan Veseley, and to some extent Kelly Oubre, who I like but who is occasionally out of step in the team game.

Troy Brown wants to win, sees the game as quickly or quicker than any player we have on the squad, I can see him being a dangerous pair with Otto, and a confidante/consultant with Wall. Tough, smart, even keeled, he only needs to work on his long range shot to really earn a role on any team in this league. But the 3pt shot is the one skill that can reliably develop in the NBA, and he seems to have the smarts and motivation to make that work.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#332 » by closg00 » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:30 pm

All of the non-injured 1st round players selected after Troy Brown are playing, Donte DiVincenzo, Lonnie Walker, Kevin Hurter, Josh Okogie, Grayson Allen, Chandler Hutchison etc, perhaps some from the 2nd round too, but I stopped at 23.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#333 » by nate33 » Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:48 pm

closg00 wrote:All of the non-injured 1st round players selected after Troy Brown are playing, Donte DiVincenzo, Lonnie Walker, Kevin Hurter, Josh Okogie, Grayson Allen, Chandler Hutchison etc, perhaps some from the 2nd round too, but I stopped at 23.

I can live with Brown's lack of playing time at the moment. We've had only one game with any garbage time, and we happen to have 3 players capable of playing Brown's position who are better than Brown at the moment (Porter, Oubre and Sato).

Ultimately, I'd like to see Rivers' minutes cut and other players shifting positions to make room for Brown, but I can understand it taking a month or so before these things happen. Coaches are understandably reluctant to bench players for poor play too quickly because it can hurt their confidence and the confidence of other players who recognize that a coach has a quick trigger finger.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#334 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:49 am

closg00 wrote:All of the non-injured 1st round players selected after Troy Brown are playing, Donte DiVincenzo, Lonnie Walker, Kevin Hurter, Josh Okogie, Grayson Allen, Chandler Hutchison etc, perhaps some from the 2nd round too, but I stopped at 23.

Actually, Lonnie Walker is injured & is not playing. & Grayson Allen has played a total of 15 minutes on the season.

Still, why stop at #23?

Landry Shamet (#26) is playing 20 minutes a game.
Omari Spellman (#30) has had meaningful minutes & is playing very well.
Jalen Brunson (#33) is playing 20 minutes a game for Dallas.
Mitchell Robinson (#36) is playing 12 minutes a game for the Knicks.
Rodion Kurucs (#40) has played 43 minutes in 3 games for Brooklyn.
Hamidou Diallo (#45) is playing 15 minutes a game for OKC.
At least 5 other later R2 picks have played a few minutes in a few games.

Then there are the undrafted:
Johnathon Williams (undrafted) has played 15 minutes a game in 3 games for the Lakers.
Gary Clark (undrafted) has played @ 20 minutes overall for Houston.
Allonzo Trier (undrafted) has really been thrown into the fire! He's already played 122 minutes for the Knicks.

Better way to say it: of the entire R1 only 4 guys picked near the bottom (Simons, Wagner, Williams & Evans) have played less than Troy Brown -- & that is because they haven't played at all.

Another @ 15 guys, either out of R2 or undrafted, have played more than Troy Brown.

We're not good enough to sit Troy Brown. Not while we are playing Austin Rivers, who is (as usual) among the least productive players in the league -- in the bottom 10%.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#335 » by closg00 » Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:26 am

:rocking: Oops on Lonnie, Thx. Thx for updates on some of the others too :rock:
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#336 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 29, 2018 2:42 pm

Before last night's game, when Troy added 7 minutes...

36 rookies had played more than Troy Brown Jr.

24 of them had played at least 4 times as many minutes as Troy.

25 of them were drafted after him (or went undrafted).

15 of them were either R2 picks or undrafted.

Only 1 rookie-- Jerome Robinson -- picked ahead of Troy had played less than him.

Now... if we were 5-1 rather than 1-5, maybe I could understand that Troy simply couldn't earn time on the floor because of how good our players were.

But, there is zero chance that Tony Brown would be as bad as Austin Rivers. Zero.

For that matter, Jordan McRae had played twice the minutes of Troy Brown before last night! & even last night, Jordan McRae played more minutes than Troy Brown.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#337 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:40 pm

Rodion Kurucs, taken #40 in the draft in June, played 21 minutes in our loss to the Nets last night. That is almost as many as Troy Brown Jr. has played all season.

Troy played 1 minute last night.

How many uninjured R1 picks from June have played fewer minutes than Troy? Answer: 3: Aaron Holiday, Robert Williams & Moritz Wagner (he's played zero minutes).

How many rookies have played more minutes than Troy? 30 of them have.

How many of those 30 were taken after him or else went undrafted? 19 of them were.

Every single person that works for the Washington Wizards, every one of them, should be fired. & the guy that most deserves firing is Ted Leonsis.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#338 » by closg00 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:18 pm

payitforward wrote:Rodion Kurucs, taken #40 in the draft in June, played 21 minutes in our loss to the Nets last night. That is almost as many as Troy Brown Jr. has played all season.

Troy played 1 minute last night.

How many uninjured R1 picks from June have played fewer minutes than Troy? Answer: 3: Aaron Holiday, Robert Williams & Moritz Wagner (he's played zero minutes).

How many rookies have played more minutes than Troy? 30 of them have.

How many of those 30 were taken after him or else went undrafted? 19 of them were.

Every single person that works for the Washington Wizards, every one of them, should be fired. & the guy that most deserves firing is Ted Leonsis.


I believe Mo Wagner is injured and Williams of-course is playing in the G. It is SO Wizards to draft Brown, then not play him or send him to the G-League.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#339 » by FAH1223 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:42 pm

Brown would probably play better than the corpse of Otto Porter right now.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#340 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:00 pm

Who is this Troy Brown guy you all are referencing?
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