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Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 5:15 pm
by payitforward
I_Like_Dirt wrote:
payitforward wrote:After the first 3 picks NBA GMs have no demonstrable ability to rank players in the draft in order of their likely performance in the league.

I disagree with this. The problem is that you don't actually see any particular team's list for the draft and there are a lot of factors that go into these kinds of rankings. ...

I don't quite follow your 2d sentence (or what came after it that I snipped), but this is not my opinion -- i.e. it's not something you agree with or disagree with.

If you look at the performance of NBA players, once you get past picks 1-3, there is no statistically significant correlation between where a player was picked & how good that player turns out to be.

Period. You don't get to "disagree."

GMs overall will over & over again take Dion Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Austin Rivers, Terrence Ross, Meyers Leonard, Kendall Marshall, Evan Fournier, Royce White, Terrance Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Jared Sullinger, John Jenkins, Tony Wroten, Jared Cunningham, Arnett Moultrie, Fab Melo, Perry Jones, Festus Ezeli, & Jeff Taylor...

while they leave Draymond Green, Khris Middleton, Will Barton, Tomas Satoransky, Jae Crowder, Kyle O'Quinn, etc. on the board.

That is because they are unable "to rank players in the draft in order of their likely performance in the league."

& it's more or less the same every year. I chose 2012 at random for my examples. Would you prefer 2011?

Jimmy Butler went #30. E'Twaun Moore went #55, IT went #60. But, Derrick Williams went #2, Vesely #6, Brandon Knight #8, Jimmer Fredette #10, etc. etc. etc.

This is not an opinion; you don't have to support it with reasoning. It's a picture of reality; all you have to do is point at it.

Why this is might be an interesting question, but whatever the reason is -- this is the way it is.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:09 pm
by Meliorus
Forgot the fact that he was a 1st rounder (sunk cost maybe), can anyone explain why he should even be in the NBA? Guys like him who can't shoot or slash have to be elite defenders, and right now he's at-most good and still a rookie).

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:29 pm
by payitforward
Meliorus wrote:Forgot the fact that he was a 1st rounder (sunk cost maybe), can anyone explain why he should even be in the NBA? Guys like him who can't shoot or slash have to be elite defenders, and right now he's at-most good and still a rookie).

Is this a comment on Brown? A kid who just turned 19 & has played a total of 95 minutes?

What do you do for a living? Manufacture crystal balls? :)

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 4:33 pm
by payitforward
I'm at the point where I am completely at sea about the Wizards -- how in hell does Troy Brown not play? So they can have minutes for Ron Baker, Chasson Randle & Kieff??

It's completely incomprehensible.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:18 pm
by dckingsfan
payitforward wrote:I'm at the point where I am completely at sea about the Wizards -- how in hell does Troy Brown not play? So they can have minutes for Ron Baker, Chasson Randle & Kieff??

It's completely incomprehensible.

This! Especially since the Wiz biggest weakness is on the defensive end. He has a defensive rebounding percentage of 21.3. He is right behind Ariza in his defensive rating on the team. And he doesn't turn the ball over.

Just incredible stupidity by a not very good coach.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sun Dec 23, 2018 6:24 pm
by Eli Babak
“That’s going to be up to him,” Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld said Thursday night while speaking with reporters. “We have a veteran team here and we have 10 guys coming back under contract … but the opportunity is always there, and if he earns it, he’ll play. Hopefully, as the season progresses, he’ll get better and better and he’ll get some minutes.”

...

“Who knows? Minutes are there. You’ve got to earn them first, we’re not just going to give him minutes,” Coach Scott Brooks said, “but he has the skill set, he has the I.Q., he has the versatility. If things continue to progress the way we think we can, he might be able to see some time.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/06/22/wizards-say-troy-brown-jr-is-their-guy-but-he-might-not-crack-rotation-right-away/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d3dd6496e886


:-x Scrub like Baker joins the team and gets immediately 14 minutes. **** Brooks and Grunfeld.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:25 am
by payitforward
Eli Babak wrote:
“That’s going to be up to him,” Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld said Thursday night while speaking with reporters. “We have a veteran team here and we have 10 guys coming back under contract … but the opportunity is always there, and if he earns it, he’ll play. Hopefully, as the season progresses, he’ll get better and better and he’ll get some minutes.”

...

“Who knows? Minutes are there. You’ve got to earn them first, we’re not just going to give him minutes,” Coach Scott Brooks said, “but he has the skill set, he has the I.Q., he has the versatility. If things continue to progress the way we think we can, he might be able to see some time.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2018/06/22/wizards-say-troy-brown-jr-is-their-guy-but-he-might-not-crack-rotation-right-away/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d3dd6496e886


:-x Scrub like Baker joins the team and gets immediately 14 minutes. **** Brooks and Grunfeld.

Well, that's from a day or so after the draft, so you wouldn't expect much different.

But, if you picked a guy @ #15, & you don't think he has earned more than 95 minutes on your crappy 13-31 team, while...

the #26 pick has played 687 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #19 pick has played 669 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #20 pick has played 437 minutes for a better team than yours
an undrafted guy has played 375 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #17 pick has played 352 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #45 pick has played 312 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #43 pick has played 254 minutes for a better team than yours
the #23 pick has played 229 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #47 pick has played 225 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #21 pick has played 165 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #25 pick has played 123 minutes for a much better team than yours
the #34 pick has played 107 minutes for a better team than yours
the #49 pick has played 105 minutes for a much better team than yours

...maybe you don't know what the Hell you are doing? Huh? Especially if...

an undrafted guy has played 628 minutes for another team
the #36 pick has played 481 minutes for another team
the #22 pick has played 457 minutes for another team
the #33 pick has played 481 minutes for another team
the #30 pick has played 400 minutes for another team
the #31 pick has played 356 minutes for another team

...& only one uninjured player drafted before you took your guy at #15 --ONLY ONE! -- has played less than your guy. Wouldn't that be a 100% clear body of evidence that your FO & coaching staff are completely inept?

I hate the Washington Wizards. I hate Ernie Grunfeld. I hate Scott Brooks. I hate Ted Leonsis. The entire organization is a disgrace. They make me ashamed to be a fan.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Dec 24, 2018 5:15 am
by long suffrin' boulez fan
I’m completely with you PIF. Though I do see some kind of “Network” thing coming on with ya bro.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:45 am
by FAH1223
:lol:

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:05 am
by Eli Babak
After taking that stupid jumper and giving up a 3 in the 2nd quarter @Atlanta on December 5 (they won 131-117 and he played last 1:16) he has played about 11 minutes in 9 games (he was with the Go-Go for 2 games though) + 15:21 in that blowout win vs Lakers (edit: he got that many minutes because they had just traded for Ariza but he was unavailable and the savior Baker wasn't signed). Brooks must feel good teaching young kid a lesson.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:03 pm
by payitforward
Moving this...
DCZards wrote:
youngWizzy wrote:
dangermouse wrote:
His game reminds me of Evan Turner with better D.

If he learns to shoot I think he has the handles and passing to move to the off guard spot, and could be like a Pacers-era Lance Stephenson with a higher BBIQ.


He looks flashy and makes some very risky passes. However, I have never seen an NBA player who gets the ball stripped from as easy as he does. I have no faith in his ability to handle the ball or create a shot. Guards in the NBA now whose primary skill is rebounding can't succeed in the league. It's not his fault for being picked its Ernie's.


Yes, Brown has had the ball stripped on several occasions. I think that's a function of him both needing to get stronger and him needing to learn that it's not easy to drive through traffic against men with the size, strength, experience and quickness of NBA players.

On the other hand, Troy has shown the ability to create his own shot off the dribble and, while some of his passes have indeed been risky, others have been excellent feeds that displayed his PG skills and high bball IQ.

Brown Jr. should have gotten much more PT this season, giving him a chance to develop. Hopefully, he'll get more PT these last 25 or so games.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:06 pm
by payitforward
and this...
payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
NatP4 wrote:Come on Dat. ... Give brown jr a Chance first

I like the kid personally. Seems like a positive, hard working and intelligent guy. That jumper tho. That's why I wasnt high on him myself. I had him as a late first rounder. It's hard to make an impact when not only do you not have a jumper, but your not an elite athlete either to compensate in other ways - which is why I preferred a guy like Zhaire Smith - even though his jumper was in development he was also an elite athlete who can compensate with a quick first step, finishing ability, rebounding ability, etc.

The summer league was a nice showing for him but it will never translate until that jump shot becomes respectable and I suspect he'll always struggle to finish around the rim as well.

Again, everything comes down to him developing that jumper. It's easier said than done. Many players never develop it. His shot doesn't look any better from his freshman year so I'm slightly bearish on his long term prospects.

He actually started well this year, but Dat is right overall. He's not super athletic & he's not super skilled.

He's smart, so I think he'll have an ok NBA career. But not much chance to become outstanding. Obviously -- as I expressed extremely vocally at the time -- Ernie took an incredibly rich draft & pissed it away. Big surprise, right?

(Who'd I say we should take @#45? Who won the dunk contest? Gee... how about that?)

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 8:42 am
by GimmeDat
Troy was one of my favourite guys in the draft last year. Sucks to see him not even get much of a chance. How has he looked when he's hit the floor?

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:45 pm
by MarcoPolo
We are now at #59 games and tonight #60.

The fact that he played only 29 of them in which only 9!! times he got at least 10 mins in this scrub/injured roster situation should be a shameful for Washington Wizards.

Beal, Ariza still getting nearly 40. in the team that WON'T make play-offs. :crazy:


#Wizards recalled rookie SG Troy Brown Jr. from #GLeague Capital City Go-Go. Head coach Scott Brooks said he anticipates that he could see some run tonight.


It should be PRIORITY not COULD/WOULD/SHOULD. At least allow fans now if he is capable or not, because at this point nobody knows what he can or can't do.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 4:56 pm
by gtn130
payitforward wrote:After the first 3 picks NBA GMs have no demonstrable ability to rank players in order of their likely performance in the league.


I don't think this is totally true, but it's a comment more about the people doing the drafting than the process itself. Most of the people in charge of professional sports organizations are really dumb.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:31 pm
by Ruzious
GimmeDat wrote:Troy was one of my favourite guys in the draft last year. Sucks to see him not even get much of a chance. How has he looked when he's hit the floor?

He's a player with a high BBIQ and is especially good in transition. Obviously, he needs to improve his shooting, but it's a good sign that he's made 36.4% of his 3's - on fairly high volume - in the G League. It's very encouraging that his assist/to ratio's are outstanding in both the NBA and G League: 4.9/1.4 in the NBA per 36 minutes and 4.3/1.4 in the G League.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 7:58 pm
by pcbothwel
Ruzious wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Troy was one of my favourite guys in the draft last year. Sucks to see him not even get much of a chance. How has he looked when he's hit the floor?

He's a player with a high BBIQ and is especially good in transition. Obviously, he needs to improve his shooting, but it's a good sign that he's made 36.4% of his 3's - on fairly high volume - in the G League. It's very encouraging that his assist/to ratio's are outstanding in both the NBA and G League: 4.9/1.4 in the NBA per 36 minutes and 4.3/1.4 in the G League.


Tomas Satoransky with a SLIGHTLY higher ceiling... so a poor mans Ginobili.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 8:08 pm
by nate33
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
GimmeDat wrote:Troy was one of my favourite guys in the draft last year. Sucks to see him not even get much of a chance. How has he looked when he's hit the floor?

He's a player with a high BBIQ and is especially good in transition. Obviously, he needs to improve his shooting, but it's a good sign that he's made 36.4% of his 3's - on fairly high volume - in the G League. It's very encouraging that his assist/to ratio's are outstanding in both the NBA and G League: 4.9/1.4 in the NBA per 36 minutes and 4.3/1.4 in the G League.


Tomas Satoransky with a SLIGHTLY higher ceiling... so a poor mans Ginobili.


Sato has developed a very accurate 3-point shot. He needs a lot of time to get it off so it's not really an offensive weapon, but it's good enough that defenses can't afford to leave him. Troy will need to develop that before he can be as effective as Sato. But if he does, he should be a bit better than Sato because he has the strength to hold his position against burly forwards. Sato gets destroyed in the post whenever he is switched onto a big.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:03 pm
by pcbothwel
nate33 wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Ruzious wrote:He's a player with a high BBIQ and is especially good in transition. Obviously, he needs to improve his shooting, but it's a good sign that he's made 36.4% of his 3's - on fairly high volume - in the G League. It's very encouraging that his assist/to ratio's are outstanding in both the NBA and G League: 4.9/1.4 in the NBA per 36 minutes and 4.3/1.4 in the G League.


Tomas Satoransky with a SLIGHTLY higher ceiling... so a poor mans Ginobili.


Sato has developed a very accurate 3-point shot. He needs a lot of time to get it off so it's not really an offensive weapon, but it's good enough that defenses can't afford to leave him. Troy will need to develop that before he can be as effective as Sato. But if he does, he should be a bit better than Sato because he has the strength to hold his position against burly forwards. Sato gets destroyed in the post whenever he is switched onto a big.


Agreed. Sato is a better shooter, but has a slow set shot. Brown also looks like he'll get to the line more, so his overall efficiency (TS) wont be that much worse. Brown is longer and has a bigger frame and has more upside on D.

Re: The Troy Brown Thread

Posted: Fri Mar 1, 2019 5:06 pm
by Endless Loop
There's a great article in today's Wall Street Journal about a $60 a year iPhone app called HomeCourt that uses some sort or other of artificial intelligence and computer vision to help players analyze and improve their shooting. It keeps a history about shot mechanics. The article talks about an 11 year old girl who uses it and now is ranked #3 in a national ranking of Class of 2025 (!!??) recruits. She tracks everything, even down to leg launch angles, etc.

With this sort of data available to seventh graders for $60 a year, is it really unreasonable to think that Brown can improve his jumper?

Surely an organization that's going to be paying one of its players $40 million a year is using this sort of analytics. Is there any reason we ever should see any NBA player with poor shot mechanics?