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The Troy Brown Thread

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payitforward
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#601 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 3, 2020 12:46 am

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:...if Troy Brown had shot 33.8% on his 3s this year, instead of 34.8%, would that have been worse? Or would it tell us nothing at all?

I mean... when you start out an unacceptable rate, it's not that hard to improve - but it is a good sign that he did. He's still got more to go to be average. Is that fair?

Yes, absolutely: he has more to go to be an average wing in the area of 3-point shooting. Ditto in the area of 2-point shooting. He has raised his FT % to just about average.

& equally true, true in the same way, are the other facts about his numbers compared to average:

that an average wing will have to get almost 40% more defensive boards to be at Brown's level,
that to be as good an offensive rebounder as Brown he'll have to get almost 45% more of them,
that to reach Brown's assist rate he'll need to add @22% more assists than he gets currently,
that to equal Brown in not turning the ball over, he must reduce his TOs by 10%,
& that to reach Brown's level in steals he'll have to add 44% more steals.

All these facts -- both the facts about his shooting & all the rest of them -- are of the same kind & all are true. The player he is today, 4+ weeks after turning 21, is expressed in all these numbers -- and, as I'm sure you'll agree -- in the fact that in his second season, Troy improved significantly in shooting -- both efficiency & in points scored -- while also improving overall in the rest of his productivity numbers.

You may all make of it what you will. I'm sure that next Summer we'll be interested to look back at his 2020-21 season to see whether he continued his improvement -- as I imagine we all hope he will.

For the moment, however, I don't think I have anything more to say about Troy Brown Jr.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#602 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 3, 2020 4:42 pm

Troy Brown Jr would max out his skill set if he were playing for Greg Popovich.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#603 » by gtn130 » Thu Sep 3, 2020 7:39 pm

payitforward wrote:Sigh... No. What you write perfectly crystalizes the power of a framing narrative -- no matter how arbitrary -- to enable one to ignore facts.


I have no narrative here regarding Troy Brown. I'm just saying shooting 35% from 3 can mean something totally different depending on the player and the shots they're taking. I used Trae Young and Dame Lillard as examples of guys who shoot relatively low 3pt % but are obviously very good 3pt shooters. They're just taking incredibly difficult shots. Making difficult shots has a lot of value that isn't that easy to quantify.

Do you think Troy Brown is a better 3pt shooter than Trae Young?

payitforward wrote:A 3-point shot that a player makes is worth 3 points. That is the key thing that matters. So, what you mean is something a little different. You mean that it's easier to make an open shot than one where you are closely guarded.

This is not exactly a profound point, right? I mean... it's true of every player & every shot. So, I guess we should stop tracking 3-point % -- or 2-point % for that matter, since the same thing applies? Is that right? Let's take FG%, eFG% & TS% out of our evaluations, shall we? Of all players. After all, those %s don't tell us anything about the player -- do I have that correct?


No, this isn't what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is when we look at these numbers we should also take context into consideration.

payitforward wrote:Once again, no. What you mean is that if you are a wing player who must be closely guarded out to the 3pt line, that is a good thing.

But, that's not enough to conclude that if you aren't that guy you are a problem for your offense.


There are exceptions, but it's largely correct that you are nearly unplayable as a wing if you can't shoot. Can you name any wings in this era who are bad 3pt shooters and are unquestionably good players?
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#604 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 3, 2020 8:29 pm

Honestly, I don't want to keep this up. Troy Brown just turned 21 years old -- he is younger than the majority of guys who will be drafted this year. There is simply no way to say that Brown is, as you seem to want to insist, a bad 3 pt. shooter -- as if it was something we were able to cite as a conclusion.

What we can say about his 3-point shooting is that it wasn't good when he was a rookie, but that he improved it significantly as a 2d year player. That's it. There is no more to say.

Jimmy Butler came into the league at the age of 22. His 3d year in the league he shot the 3 at 28.3%.

Plus, we do have to look at the other things he does on the court. Which you seem unwilling to do.

As to your last question, of course I can! How many do you want? Why don't we start with DeMar DeRozan?
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#605 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 3, 2020 8:39 pm

gtn130 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Sigh... No. What you write perfectly crystalizes the power of a framing narrative -- no matter how arbitrary -- to enable one to ignore facts.

I have no narrative here regarding Troy Brown. ...

Sure you do! You chose to make the entire discussion of him be about 3-point shooting. You are ready to dismiss Troy Brown as a player based on his 3-point shooting at the age of 20:
gtn130 wrote:...you are nearly unplayable as a wing if you can't shoot. Can you name any wings in this era who are bad 3pt shooters and are unquestionably good players?

But my words above concerned your narrative about how I use numbers.
gtn130 wrote:PIF, this type of analysis perfectly crystalizes what you get wrong with the numbers. ...

Feel free to have your own opinion -- it's your right.

For that matter, feel free to critique my analyses where I get things wrong -- which I do, of course. E.g. I disliked using the #15 pick on Troy Brown! :)

But, if you're going to do it, then respond on the meaning of all the numbers.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#606 » by bsilver » Fri Sep 4, 2020 8:03 pm

I think we forget how much strength it takes to shoot an NBA 3 pointer, since they're such great athletes and make it look easy. Brown's body is still developing, and he'll get stronger. Lots of great NBA 3 pt. shooters took some time to develop. Kevin Durant shot 29% his first year and there are many other examples.

It's not like we have a lot of good players and can afford to be picky. Brown's probably our 4th best player after Beal/Wall/Bryant. It would be foolish not to give him more time.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#607 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 5, 2020 1:30 am

bsilver wrote:...Brown's probably our 4th best player after Beal/Wall/Bryant. It would be foolish not to give him more time.

Well done -- that's the whole point in just a few words -- except you can take out the "probably."
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#608 » by dckingsfan » Sat Sep 5, 2020 5:00 pm

Prediction: I think his minutes will go down and he will improve in most meaningful categories. As we have pointed out he probably needs to play SG. Which means that 3 of our 4 best players will be guards.

Code: Select all

Year    Age  MP     TS%     3P%     FT%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%  BLK%  DRtg  WS/48   VORP
18-19   19    730   0.487   0.319   0.681   14.9   10.5   16.5   16.6   1.4   0.6   115   0.039   -0.1
19-20   20   1782   0.524   0.341   0.784   14.1   10.4   17.8   19.6   2.2   0.3   114   0.065    0.3
20-21   21   1500   0.550   0.380   0.800   17.0   11.0   17.0   20.0   2.4   0.2   110   0.100    0.9
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#609 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 6, 2020 12:15 am

dckingsfan wrote:Prediction: I think his minutes will go down and he will improve in most meaningful categories. As we have pointed out he probably needs to play SG. Which means that 3 of our 4 best players will be guards.

Code: Select all

Year    Age  MP     TS%     3P%     FT%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%  BLK%  DRtg  WS/48   VORP
18-19   19    730   0.487   0.319   0.681   14.9   10.5   16.5   16.6   1.4   0.6   115   0.039   -0.1
19-20   20   1782   0.524   0.341   0.784   14.1   10.4   17.8   19.6   2.2   0.3   114   0.065    0.3
20-21   21   1500   0.550   0.380   0.800   17.0   11.0   17.0   20.0   2.4   0.2   110   0.100    0.9

Wow, dckingsfan -- did you bring back that table of data from a recent visit to the future?!?! :)

We played 72 games. Brown's 1782 minutes translate into 2030 minutes in a normal 82-game season.

He had a terrific year all in all, so I can't see any reason why his minutes would -- or should -- go down next season. Especially since, in the nature of things, you'd expect him to continue to improve: he played this season at the age of 20 !!
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#610 » by dckingsfan » Sun Sep 6, 2020 1:29 am

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Prediction: I think his minutes will go down and he will improve in most meaningful categories. As we have pointed out he probably needs to play SG. Which means that 3 of our 4 best players will be guards.

Code: Select all

Year    Age  MP     TS%     3P%     FT%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%  BLK%  DRtg  WS/48   VORP
18-19   19    730   0.487   0.319   0.681   14.9   10.5   16.5   16.6   1.4   0.6   115   0.039   -0.1
19-20   20   1782   0.524   0.341   0.784   14.1   10.4   17.8   19.6   2.2   0.3   114   0.065    0.3
20-21   21   1500   0.550   0.380   0.800   17.0   11.0   17.0   20.0   2.4   0.2   110   0.100    0.9

Wow, dckingsfan -- did you bring back that table of data from a recent visit to the future?!?! :)

We played 72 games. Brown's 1782 minutes translate into 2030 minutes in a normal 82-game season.

He had a terrific year all in all, so I can't see any reason why his minutes would -- or should -- go down next season. Especially since, in the nature of things, you'd expect him to continue to improve: he played this season at the age of 20 !!

Yes, :meditate: things just came to me and the future appeared :lol:

I think his minutes go down because he plays behind Beal. This is my clairvoyant prediction... and you know who our coach is... I think we grab another wing in the draft who also slices into his minutes. And I think Bonga plays well and slices into his minutes.

Nevertheless (I feel like Maxwell Smart on this one asking for the cone of silence) he still plays much better.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#611 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 7, 2020 12:54 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:Prediction: I think his minutes will go down and he will improve in most meaningful categories. As we have pointed out he probably needs to play SG. Which means that 3 of our 4 best players will be guards.

Code: Select all

Year    Age  MP     TS%     3P%     FT%     AST%   TOV%   USG%   DRB%   STL%  BLK%  DRtg  WS/48   VORP
18-19   19    730   0.487   0.319   0.681   14.9   10.5   16.5   16.6   1.4   0.6   115   0.039   -0.1
19-20   20   1782   0.524   0.341   0.784   14.1   10.4   17.8   19.6   2.2   0.3   114   0.065    0.3
20-21   21   1500   0.550   0.380   0.800   17.0   11.0   17.0   20.0   2.4   0.2   110   0.100    0.9

Wow, dckingsfan -- did you bring back that table of data from a recent visit to the future?!?! :)

We played 72 games. Brown's 1782 minutes translate into 2030 minutes in a normal 82-game season.

He had a terrific year all in all, so I can't see any reason why his minutes would -- or should -- go down next season. Especially since, in the nature of things, you'd expect him to continue to improve: he played this season at the age of 20 !!

Yes, :meditate: things just came to me and the future appeared :lol:

I think his minutes go down because he plays behind Beal. This is my clairvoyant prediction... and you know who our coach is... I think we grab another wing in the draft who also slices into his minutes. And I think Bonga plays well and slices into his minutes.

Nevertheless (I feel like Maxwell Smart on this one asking for the cone of silence) he still plays much better.

Well, don't keep it a secret, man -- what happened in the election? :)

We do have a lot of wings... Bonga, Brown, Robinson, Mathews, Schofield... & there are people who want to play Bertans at the 3.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#612 » by dckingsfan » Mon Sep 7, 2020 1:11 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:
payitforward wrote:Wow, dckingsfan -- did you bring back that table of data from a recent visit to the future?!?! :)

We played 72 games. Brown's 1782 minutes translate into 2030 minutes in a normal 82-game season.

He had a terrific year all in all, so I can't see any reason why his minutes would -- or should -- go down next season. Especially since, in the nature of things, you'd expect him to continue to improve: he played this season at the age of 20 !!

Yes, :meditate: things just came to me and the future appeared :lol:

I think his minutes go down because he plays behind Beal. This is my clairvoyant prediction... and you know who our coach is... I think we grab another wing in the draft who also slices into his minutes. And I think Bonga plays well and slices into his minutes.

Nevertheless (I feel like Maxwell Smart on this one asking for the cone of silence) he still plays much better.

Well, don't keep it a secret, man -- what happened in the election? :)

We do have a lot of wings... Bonga, Brown, Robinson, Mathews, Schofield... & there are people who want to play Bertans at the 3.

There are lots of things working against Brown and minutes. First, I think he is most suited to play SG. But we have that guy in front of him - Bradley Beal. Second, I think that there are a lot of wings and guards competing for those minutes, Robinson, Mathews at SG, Bonga at SF, and with Rui and if/Bertans at PF limited small ball. I am also convinced they are looking at the best 3&D SF they can find. I will add to that, I don't think he is Brooks' "guy". So, I am thinking the 1500 - 1700 minute range and less if Mathews or Bonga or the rookie break out (or if we play the rookie like Rui because...).


And the secret of the election this is year is....









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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#613 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 7, 2020 1:40 pm

We'll see how it works out. I'm more interested in whether Brown is Tommy's "guy" than Brooks'.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#614 » by dckingsfan » Mon Sep 7, 2020 2:11 pm

payitforward wrote:We'll see how it works out. I'm more interested in whether Brown is Tommy's "guy" than Brooks'.

Something I hadn't considered...

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