2018 NBA Draft Thread Pt. II

[queridiculo]

So who's ready for the big letdown, you guys excited?

[payitforward]

Everybody knows that I detest Ernie Grunfield, right? (Not that I'm alone in that) Everybody knows that I think he's the most conceited, self-aggrandizing, no-talent pain in the butt ever to have run an NBA franchise (since Billy King departed, that is), right?

Well, if he does one thing today -- however he manages it, whatever he gives up to get it done, I don't care -- if he does this one thing, I'll forgive him for every bonehead move he's ever made, every "I know more than you" attitude he foists on us, everything -- all of it. The whole shooting match.

& that one thing is

Spoiler:

acquire Mo Bamba -- really, I don't care how he does it. Kidnapping is ok.

I love Mo Bamba. I want to adopt Mo Bamba. Mo Bamba is all in all. He is going to be the greatest player in the history of the NBA. No, in the history of basketball. No, in the history of sports. I mean back into the misty ages of unrecorded time!

Why do I think this -- no... why am I sure, I mean absolutely certain, of this? Well, aside from the fact that he is a huge talent, he's also the smartest young athlete I've ever seen, & w/o question among the smartest young people of any stripe whom I've encountered over the last many years. & I meet a lot of them.

Among other shockers I learned about him yesterday: the last two years, i.e. since Daryl Morey founded it, he's attended the Sloan Conference at MIT -- http://www.sloansportsconference.com/.

He's also been working with Drew Hanlan & now sinks the corner three like he's Trevor Ariza. Not to mention that he has a 7'10" wingspan -- the longest in all recorded history (well... of the NBA anyway!).

Do this, Ernie, & I will defend you for the next decade. I'll defend you when you are running the Wizards from a nursing home!

Sadly, it's only a dream. More likely the Sixers trade some of their picks to us for our #15 & then trade it along w/ #10 for a pick that gets them Bamba. If Hinkie were still there I'd be sure of it. If they do that, I'm switching over to the Sixers.

[payitforward]

That was one of ERnie's best trades....

Balls. It was awful. We gave up an enormous amount of flexibility for no help at all in building the team. Zero.

Okafor had already been injured; we got 2000 minutes for a $28m salary commitment. Ariza stayed 2 years, & then we did nothing to keep him & nothing to use any rights we had to get something back for him.

Ernie's specialty is using our assets to acquire other assets then losing those assets w/o getting anything back for them. How do you think we've managed to have more & better draft assets than virtually any team in the league for a decade while managing to field a slightly above .500 team in the weaker conference? Come on....

[Error Afflalo]

If we assume that all of these guys are gone:

Ayton
Doncic
Bagley
Jackson
Carter
Bamba
Mikel Bridges
Porter
Young
Sexton
Knox
Smith
Williams
Bridges

We end up with SGA still. Don’t be upset about that. 17 points 5 rebounds 6 assists 2 steals 0.6 blocks per40 on 58% TS. 9.1 BPM 21.2 PER 5.2 win shares as a freshman.

7ft wingspan, he’s a legit 6’6. Can probably play the 1-3. Shot 40% from 3 on 17 more attempts than Zhaire Smith.

Good motor, good basketball IQ, you won’t hate watching the guy. The new NBA is about wings and ball handlers. Having Wall Beal Sato SGA Oubre and Porter would be some excellent depth at the 1-4.

Now, be scared as hell that Knox is the guy who drops because he’s bad at basketball.

I like SGA a lot. I didn't mention him because I've seen him climbing up boards of late. There's talk he could be the first PG taken, which is interesting because apparently he hasn't been working out for teams.

[payitforward]

...Almost all of the teams behind us in round 1 could fully absorb that (Gortat) 1 year and send nothing back.... Our payroll is sitting at 125 million, we could literally use the stretch provision on Mahinmi and be out of the tax for good.

Dude...

We'd have 8 players for $104m (including year 1 of Mahinmi's stretch). No Center at all. I assume you'd count on Williams being there at 15 -- & on him playing 2500 effective minutes as an NBA 5 while being a rookie just out of his Sophomore year. Oh... I forgot: you think Gary Clark can be an NBA small ball Center as a rookie. Or Omari Spellman....

One good thing. It might get Ernie fired when we win 35 games.

[payitforward]

SG-A would be a great pick, IMO, if he's there @15, but that seems unlikely (not to mention it seems unlikely that we stay at 15).

But... everybody can't climb. If one person climbs another has to fall. I don't share the interest in Jerome Robinson, so I hope he isn't the one who falls.

Thing is, we need a player who will be a *change* for this team. To me at least the only guy who could conceivably have that effect & also might be available at #15 is Williams. Just because he is a kind of player we simply don't have at all right now. Plus, if Gortat gets traded, there's a chance he'd see the floor for significant minutes. That seems less likely w/ SG-A or Smith or even Bridges.

If we can't get a guy who is that kind of change-agent, then I can imagine trading down. But only if it brings us at least 1, hopefully 2, extra picks. In that case, we give ourselves a chance to be surprised by someone. Practically speaking, every extra draft pick means one less veteran minimum rent-a-player.

For example, if trading down & buying an extra R2 pick meant that we came out of the draft w/ e.g. Khyri Thomas, Mo Wagner, Jevon Carter & Dzanan Musa, then I would be satisfied that we'd gotten value. & that's just one list: it might be 4 other guys -- DiVincenzo, Rawle Alkins, Jarred Vanderbilt, & Brandon McCoy. Or 4 others: Huerter, Hervey, Clark & Melton...? Obviously, it would depend where the picks were distributed in the draft.

Given the current condition of the team, some set of 4 among those players (& others I haven't mentioned) could provide the best kind of help short of a potential game-changer like Williams (I did say "potential," btw).

In this situation, Mitchell Robinson might even make sense as 1 of such a 4-player group?

[Ruzious]

Almost all of the teams behind us in round 1 could fully absorb that 1 year and send nothing back. Mozgov just got traded for a couple 2nd round picks...

We aren’t handing away a 1st round pick to dump 1 year at 13.5 million on a decent player. Our payroll is sitting at 125 million, we could literally use the stretch provision on Mahinmi and be out of the tax for good.

Wrong Wrong and Wrong. Even if we dumped Gortat and took nothing back, and we used the stretch provision on Mahinmi, we'd still be over the lux tax. There would be more to do to get under. That's been explained in detail at least a couple of times.

And last I checked, there were no more than 8 teams projecting to be under the cap, and most of those will not likely be under by as much as Gortat's contract amount.

What? Stretching Mahinmi would give us 10 million in cap+dumping Gortat’s 13.5. That’s 23.5 million saved. We sit at 125 million with a luxury tax line of 122....

What are you even talking about?

My bad - I didn't factor in Gary Clark being our starting center...

[NatP4]

Wrong Wrong and Wrong. Even if we dumped Gortat and took nothing back, and we used the stretch provision on Mahinmi, we'd still be over the lux tax. There would be more to do to get under. That's been explained in detail at least a couple of times.

And last I checked, there were no more than 8 teams projecting to be under the cap, and most of those will not likely be under by as much as Gortat's contract amount.

What? Stretching Mahinmi would give us 10 million in cap+dumping Gortat’s 13.5. That’s 23.5 million saved. We sit at 125 million with a luxury tax line of 122....

What are you even talking about?

My bad - I didn't factor in Gary Clark being our starting center...

Doesn’t even admit to being wrong, just throws another jab. Admirable

[NatP4]

...Almost all of the teams behind us in round 1 could fully absorb that (Gortat) 1 year and send nothing back.... Our payroll is sitting at 125 million, we could literally use the stretch provision on Mahinmi and be out of the tax for good.

Dude...

We'd have 8 players for $104m (including year 1 of Mahinmi's stretch). No Center at all. I assume you'd count on Williams being there at 15 -- & on him playing 2500 effective minutes as an NBA 5 while being a rookie just out of his Sophomore year. Oh... I forgot: you think Gary Clark can be an NBA small ball Center as a rookie. Or Omari Spellman....

One good thing. It might get Ernie fired when we win 35 games.

I didn’t say we should do it, I was simply pointing out how easy it would be to get out of the tax. Of course in PIFs world, we assume that only bad things happen, for example, we would of course sign NO players after creating room to use the exceptions, and all rookies we draft are incapable of contributing to the team.

Yes also, PIF knows what positions college prospects can and can’t play despite never watching a single second of them (as evidence by you claiming Bonzie Colson and Gary Clark can play small forward.

Oh no!!!! Only 8 players at 104 million!!! How will we ever fill out the roster with the full MLE and room exception available and two draft picks!! How will Omari Spellman play center in the NBA when only every single scout projects him to be a center????

[Ruzious]

What? Stretching Mahinmi would give us 10 million in cap+dumping Gortat’s 13.5. That’s 23.5 million saved. We sit at 125 million with a luxury tax line of 122....

What are you even talking about?

My bad - I didn't factor in Gary Clark being our starting center...

Doesn’t even admit to being wrong, just throws another jab. Admirable

Call me the admirable President Ruz.

[NatP4]

If we assume that all of these guys are gone:

Ayton
Doncic
Bagley
Jackson
Carter
Bamba
Mikel Bridges
Porter
Young
Sexton
Knox
Smith
Williams
Bridges

We end up with SGA still. Don’t be upset about that. 17 points 5 rebounds 6 assists 2 steals 0.6 blocks per40 on 58% TS. 9.1 BPM 21.2 PER 5.2 win shares as a freshman.

7ft wingspan, he’s a legit 6’6. Can probably play the 1-3. Shot 40% from 3 on 17 more attempts than Zhaire Smith.

Good motor, good basketball IQ, you won’t hate watching the guy. The new NBA is about wings and ball handlers. Having Wall Beal Sato SGA Oubre and Porter would be some excellent depth at the 1-4.

Now, be scared as hell that Knox is the guy who drops because he’s bad at basketball.

I like SGA a lot. I didn't mention him because I've seen him climbing up boards of late. There's talk he could be the first PG taken, which is interesting because apparently he hasn't been working out for teams.

Yeah I was reading about this as well. People think he has a promise from some team. Refused a workout with the hornets but worked out for the clippers (possible trade up team?) has been completely off the map and told to not say which teams he has worked out and interviewed with. Definitely has a promise.

So that would give us an even better shot at Rob Williams dropping.

[Ruzious]

Everybody knows that I detest Ernie Grunfield, right? (Not that I'm alone in that) Everybody knows that I think he's the most conceited, self-aggrandizing, no-talent pain in the butt ever to have run an NBA franchise (since Billy King departed, that is), right?

Well, if he does one thing today -- however he manages it, whatever he gives up to get it done, I don't care -- if he does this one thing, I'll forgive him for every bonehead move he's ever made, every "I know more than you" attitude he foists on us, everything -- all of it. The whole shooting match.

& that one thing is

Spoiler:

acquire Mo Bamba -- really, I don't care how he does it. Kidnapping is ok.

I love Mo Bamba. I want to adopt Mo Bamba. Mo Bamba is all in all. He is going to be the greatest player in the history of the NBA. No, in the history of basketball. No, in the history of sports. I mean back into the misty ages of unrecorded time!

Why do I think this -- no... why am I sure, I mean absolutely certain, of this? Well, aside from the fact that he is a huge talent, he's also the smartest young athlete I've ever seen, & w/o question among the smartest young people of any stripe whom I've encountered over the last many years. & I meet a lot of them.

Among other shockers I learned about him yesterday: the last two years, i.e. since Daryl Morey founded it, he's attended the Sloan Conference at MIT -- http://www.sloansportsconference.com/.

He's also been working with Drew Hanlan & now sinks the corner three like he's Trevor Ariza. Not to mention that he has a 7'10" wingspan -- the longest in all recorded history (well... of the NBA anyway!).

Do this, Ernie, & I will defend you for the next decade. I'll defend you when you are running the Wizards from a nursing home!

Sadly, it's only a dream. More likely the Sixers trade some of their picks to us for our #15 & then trade it along w/ #10 for a pick that gets them Bamba. If Hinkie were still there I'd be sure of it. If they do that, I'm switching over to the Sixers.

I think your spoiler goes to Dallas at 5. Unfortunately, there's a better chance that you win the lottery than your spoiler comes true. But we can keep hope alive for another half a day.

[Dat2U]

Final Tier list for the 2018 draft.

Tier I

1. F Luka Doncic
2. C Jaren Jackson Jr
3. C Mohamed Bamba

Tier II

4. C DeAndre Ayton
5. G Trae Young
6. F Zhaire Smith
7. C Robert Williams III
8. F Mikal Bridges

Tier III

9. C Marvin Bagley III
10. G Elie Okobo
11. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
12. C Wendell Carter Jr
13. F Michael Porter Jr
14. F Miles Bridges
15. F Dzanan Musa

Tier IV

16. F Gary Clark
17. F Kevin Huerter
18. G Donte DiVincenzo
19. G Jevon Carter
20. G Landry Shamet
21. C Omari Spellman
22. G Collin Sexton
23. C Mitchell Robinson
24. G Bruce Brown
25. G De'Anthony Melton
26. F Keita Bates-Diop
27. G Lonnie Walker IV
28. G Gary Trent Jr
29. F Troy Brown Jr
30. F Jacob Evans
31. G Khyri Thomas
32. F Melvin Frazier
33. G Aaron Holiday
34. G Grayson Allen
35. G Rawle Alkins
36. C Moritz Wagner
37. G Jerome Robinson
38. G Josh Okogie
39. G Anfernee Simons
40. G Jalen Brunson
41. G Chandler Hutchison

Tier V

42. C Jarred Vanderbilt
43. C Raymond Spalding
44. F Hamadou Diallo
45. F Kenrich Williams
46. F Justin Jackson
47. G Devon Hall
48. F Rodirons Kurucs
49. F Isaiah Wilkins
50. F Theo Pinson
51. G Trevon Duval
52. F Issac Bonga
53. G Issuf Sanon
54. C Chimezie Metu
55. F Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk
56. G Keenan Evans
57. G Malik Newman
58. G Shake Milton
59. F Kevin Hervey
60. F Alize Johnson

[Dat2U]

Here's what I do if I was Wizards GM.

At #15
1. Robert Williams
2. Zhaire Smith
3. Elie Okobo
4. SGA
5. Michael Porter Jr
6. Miles Bridges

At #44:
Highest rated player left in Tier IV outside of Gary Clark.

Acquire additional pick in 40s:
1. Gary Clark.


Goals
1. #15: Williams or Smith. Will settle for Okobo, Bridges or Porter Jr.
2. #44: Carter, Shamet, Spellman, B. Brown or M. Robinson
3. Additional pick: Clark

I would consider an Oubre-style deal where we trade up a few spots via future 2nd round picks to grab a 2nd tier player.

I would also consider packaging Oubre, the pick and whatever assets we could cobble together outside of Wall, Beal & Porter for a shot at anyone one the first tier.

I would also do the Memphis deal for the 4th & Parsons for Porter (but not for Beal or Wall).

[NatP4]

6 hours.

[payitforward]

...Almost all of the teams behind us in round 1 could fully absorb that (Gortat) 1 year and send nothing back.... Our payroll is sitting at 125 million, we could literally use the stretch provision on Mahinmi and be out of the tax for good.

Dude...

We'd have 8 players for $104m (including year 1 of Mahinmi's stretch). No Center at all. I assume you'd count on Williams being there at 15 -- & on him playing 2500 effective minutes as an NBA 5 while being a rookie just out of his Sophomore year. Oh... I forgot: you think Gary Clark can be an NBA small ball Center as a rookie. Or Omari Spellman....

One good thing. It might get Ernie fired when we win 35 games.

I didn’t say we should do it, I was simply pointing out how easy it would be to get out of the tax. Of course in PIFs world, we assume that only bad things happen, for example, we would of course sign NO players after creating room to use the exceptions, and all rookies we draft are incapable of contributing to the team.

Yes also, PIF knows what positions college prospects can and can’t play despite never watching a single second of them (as evidence by you claiming Bonzie Colson and Gary Clark can play small forward.

Oh no!!!! Only 8 players at 104 million!!! How will we ever fill out the roster with the full MLE and room exception available and two draft picks!! How will Omari Spellman play center in the NBA when only every single scout projects him to be a center????

-- I have no trouble with you giving me a hard time, Nat. I give you a hard time. & it's all in fun. You are not mean about it, & I assume you don't think of me as being mean-spirited in your direction either. So, we're good, ok?

I love both Spellman & Clark -- as R2 picks. & it will be great if Spellman can play Center in the league. But, I'll be awfully surprised if he can give us or anybody effective minutes at the 5 his rookie year. Overall, it's hard for me to see why the 4 isn't a better position for him to maximize his career. But, hey, I might be wrong.

As to Gary Clark, I was kind of wondering whether *you* have watched much of him on the court. He's a tremendously hard worker, no doubt. Effort & focus are never lacking. But... he's not very tall, he's not very big, & he's not very long. Not enough for a Center I don't think, & maybe not enough for a 4.

Don't get me wrong; I see no reason why he can't have a solid 10+ year NBA career as a journeyman 4 off the bench. But if he's to be any kind of impact player -- well... that's why I am hoping he can play the 3 some kind of way.

Think about Thaddeus Young -- he's about the height/weight of Clark. When he came into the league people projected him as likely to play the 3. He did wind up a 4, & of course he's a pretty good player; if Clark becomes as good as Young (a #12 pick) that would be tremendous. But Young is a much longer & much more explosive athlete than Clark.

In other words, when I think "I hope Clark can play the 3," it's not a critical thought; it's a thought about how this young man can have the best possible career. Ditto Spellman at the 4.

[NatP4]

Dude...

We'd have 8 players for $104m (including year 1 of Mahinmi's stretch). No Center at all. I assume you'd count on Williams being there at 15 -- & on him playing 2500 effective minutes as an NBA 5 while being a rookie just out of his Sophomore year. Oh... I forgot: you think Gary Clark can be an NBA small ball Center as a rookie. Or Omari Spellman....

One good thing. It might get Ernie fired when we win 35 games.

I didn’t say we should do it, I was simply pointing out how easy it would be to get out of the tax. Of course in PIFs world, we assume that only bad things happen, for example, we would of course sign NO players after creating room to use the exceptions, and all rookies we draft are incapable of contributing to the team.

Yes also, PIF knows what positions college prospects can and can’t play despite never watching a single second of them (as evidence by you claiming Bonzie Colson and Gary Clark can play small forward.

Oh no!!!! Only 8 players at 104 million!!! How will we ever fill out the roster with the full MLE and room exception available and two draft picks!! How will Omari Spellman play center in the NBA when only every single scout projects him to be a center????

-- I have no trouble with you giving me a hard time, Nat. I give you a hard time. & it's all in fun. You are not mean about it, & I assume you don't think of me as being mean-spirited in your direction either. So, we're good, ok?

I love both Spellman & Clark -- as R2 picks. & it will be great if Spellman can play Center in the league. But, I'll be awfully surprised if he can give us or anybody effective minutes at the 5 his rookie year. Overall, it's hard for me to see why the 4 isn't a better position for him to maximize his career. But, hey, I might be wrong.

As to Gary Clark, I was kind of wondering whether *you* have watched much of him on the court. He's a tremendously hard worker, no doubt. Effort & focus are never lacking. But... he's not very tall, he's not very big, & he's not very long. Not enough for a Center I don't think, & maybe not enough for a 4.

Don't get me wrong; I see no reason why he can't have a solid 10+ year NBA career as a journeyman 4 off the bench. But if he's to be any kind of impact player -- well... that's why I am hoping he can play the 3 some kind of way.

Think about Thaddeus Young -- he's about the height/weight of Clark. When he came into the league people projected him as likely to play the 3. He did wind up a 4, & of course he's a pretty good player; if Clark becomes as good as Young (a #12 pick) that would be tremendous. But Young is a much longer & much more explosive athlete than Clark.

In other words, when I think "I hope Clark can play the 3," it's not a critical thought; it's a thought about how this young man can have the best possible career. Ditto Spellman at the 4.

Fair enough, but in today’s NBA, emphasis on today’s NBA, Thad Young plays the 4&5, not the 3&4.

I will admit, I expected Clark to measure in at a 7’0 wingspan atleast, and it is concerning. Markieff Morris has a 6’10 wingspan and it severely limits him. He very well might be limited to a bench role as a backup 4. Mike Scott only has a 6’9 wingspan! Wait, bad example.

Spellman however, has a 7’3 wingspan, he’s just fine playing the 5.

We’ll see, it’s all very hypothetical.

[payitforward]

Final Tier list for the 2018 draft.

Tier I

1. F Luka Doncic
2. C Jaren Jackson Jr
3. C Mohamed Bamba
...

Tier V

...
57. G Malik Newman
58. G Shake Milton
59. F Kevin Hervey
60. F Alize Johnson

Only problem I have with these tiers is to wonder why you didn't go down say to #70 -- unless coincidentally V just happens to stop right there at #60.

My reason is obvious I'm sure: I would sign at least one undrafted kid maybe 2 over signing a Vet-min rent-a-player. We have got to put ourselves in a position to be surprised by as many guys as possible who are both cheap & under our control.

Long shots, obviously -- but a veteran minimum player is a "no shot" by those criteria. Cheap, yes, but not as cheap as an undrafted or low R2 pick. Above all, not under our control -- by definition not. Hence, the better he is the less likely you can keep him. So... not a guy who can help build your team in that way.

Edit: forgot to conclude with my question -- who are the next 10 guys, Dat? Who would you put from 61-70, & are they still on your Tier V (I assume)?

[80sballboy]

A few more last second mock drafts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/06/21/nba-mock-draft-2018-a-final-edition-before-what-could-be-a-crazier-than-normal-night/?utm_term=.962199f5bcd5

BR (J. Robinson/Spellman)
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2781931-2018-nba-mock-draft-final-2-round-predictions#slide14

ESPN Insider as of 7amET (R. Akins 2nd round)

15. Washington Wizards

Lonnie Walker IV
Miami
Age: 19.4
SG

Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 206

Walker didn't have a consistent or efficient freshman season, but his talent, combined with the lack of depth at his position, is keeping him in this range.

His youth, strong frame, 6-foot-10½ wingspan and ability to shoot with his feet set or off the dribble make him a candidate to rise as teams search for upside and diamonds in the rough.

The Ringer as of today (Z. Smith, T Duval)
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/?_ga=2.77337618.629370094.1526920804-1266934090.1526920804

CBSsports Matt Norlander (Z. Smith, K. Hervey)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2018-nba-mock-draft-final-look-and-projection-of-all-60-picks-before-teams-pick-thursday-night/

SI.com (Walker, Spellman)
https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/21/nba-mock-draft-2018-trade-rumors-final-picks-deandre-ayton-trae-young

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2018-nba-mock-draft.html

[NatP4]

I don’t see why Shake Milton isn’t getting more attention.

42.7% from 3 on 5 attempts through his career, shot above 42% from 3 on atleast 4 attempts per game in all 3 seasons. Maintained a 2-1 A/TO throughout his career. He gets steals and blocks, rebounds decently. His box plus minus is solid, even as a freshman it was 5.7. He’s a legit 6’6 200 LBS with a 7’1 wingspan as a point guard. He’s only 21 years old.

Seems like a decent 2nd round pick with legit quality nba role player upside.