Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard

[nate33]

So at the very least, he's a rotational player right? We can all agree on that? Is he a starter though?

Even though his stats are great, he's got a long way to go, and that's partly a good thing. He got bullied by Len, so that's a sign that he needs to get stronger. And he can - at some point - incorporate a 3 point shot to his game. Obviously, he's got a long way to go on defense and setting picks, but that should come with experience and work. And because he seems like he likes to work and improve, there's a good chance he will become a good starter. The Wiz also need to provide him with direction, and I'm not sure they'll do that effectively.

He could also work on his body a bit. He isn't that well defined muscularly. He can probably get both stronger and lighter with the appropriate training and diet. That will improve his lateral mobility.

I'm not trying to be critical. It's actually good news. As good as he is already at this young age, there is room to improve both technically and physically. It takes lots of players take 3 or 4 years of NBA-level training to mold their body ideally to the rigors of the game.

[Shanghai Kid]

So at the very least, he's a rotational player right? We can all agree on that? Is he a starter though?

His numbers say he’s one of the best Cs in the NBA. I mean, they are kinda ridiculous. 21.5 PER .720 TS% 17-10-2-2-1 per 36. He doesn’t turn the ball over at all. He’s got a positive BPM, VORP, and a WS/48 of .196, which is elite territory. RPM even has him ranked 19th out of all centers. He’s killing it just setting good screens and rolling. This team needs that.

It’s very possible that we’ve actually found our center of the future, our very own Clint Capela type. I’m starting him even if Dwight is healthy. 30+ minutes a night.

Based on analytics, if you were to simply play Sato-Otto-Bryant 36+ minutes a night, you would probably have a solid team. I think Brown jr fits the same mold as a real positive impact jack of all trades role player. Build around those 4 guys+ Beal who is the real star player and leader. All of Ariza/Green/Dekker/Dwight can give you the solid role player and effort part.

They need to go find another guard though

All of that + lets get a top 5 pick in this years draft.

[NatP4]

So at the very least, he's a rotational player right? We can all agree on that? Is he a starter though?

His numbers say he’s one of the best Cs in the NBA. I mean, they are kinda ridiculous. 21.5 PER .720 TS% 17-10-2-2-1 per 36. He doesn’t turn the ball over at all. He’s got a positive BPM, VORP, and a WS/48 of .196, which is elite territory. RPM even has him ranked 19th out of all centers. He’s killing it just setting good screens and rolling. This team needs that.

It’s very possible that we’ve actually found our center of the future, our very own Clint Capela type. I’m starting him even if Dwight is healthy. 30+ minutes a night.

Based on analytics, if you were to simply play Sato-Otto-Bryant 36+ minutes a night, you would probably have a solid team. I think Brown jr fits the same mold as a real positive impact jack of all trades role player. Build around those 4 guys+ Beal who is the real star player and leader. All of Ariza/Green/Dekker/Dwight can give you the solid role player and effort part.

They need to go find another guard though

All of that + lets get a top 5 pick in this years draft.

If they move Wall and get a top 10 pick I’d be thrilled with the direction of the team moving forward. I like Beal and Porter as the cornerstone pieces. Re sign Sato and Bryant as well.

[nuposse04]

Can we even afford to keep him? Thats the only part that worries/saddens me...

[pcbothwel]

Can we even afford to keep him? Thats the only part that worries/saddens me...

Yes, there is a very clear path to resigning him and Sato without getting hit by the repeater tax...assuming we get under by the deadline.

[nate33]

Bump!

As pointed out by NatP4 in the Philly game thread, Bryant currently has an ORtg of 138. He is also posting a TS% of .723, and PER of 21.9 and a WS/48 of .202. His defense is only mediocre, but it's not like he is being played off the court on that end of the floor. He is averaging 10.4 rebounds per 36, which is better than anyone else on the roster (save Howard), but only so-so for an NBA center. I noticed that he is getting better at setting picks as well. He and Bradley Beal have pretty good chemistry on the pick and roll and he is avoiding fouls (just 3.6 per 36 minutes).

Some other impressive numbers: he is averaging just 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes while also tabulating 1.9 assists. He's not a brilliant passer or anything, but he shows good awareness, making the right pass while avoiding stupid turnovers. For reference, Dwight Howard's career high is 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, and he did that as a 10-year veteran in Houston, turning the ball over 3.4 times in the process. Also, Bryant is an 85% FT shooter.

Bryant ranks 1st in the league in TS%, 1st in ORtg, and 17th in WS/48 (among guys with 500+ minutes played). He's been doing it long enough that it no longer appears to be a fluke. The dude is SOLID. I'm a bit worried that he'll be hard to retain in free agency. I'm just hoping that nobody is willing to pay a ton for a rim runner who is merely average defensively.

[Ruzious]

Bump!

As pointed out by NatP4 in the Philly game thread, Bryant currently has an ORtg of 138. He is also posting a TS% of .723, and PER of 21.9 and a WS/48 of .202. His defense is only so-so, but it's not like he is being played off the court on that end of the floor. He is averaging 10.4 rebounds per 36, which is better than anyone else on the roster (save Howard), but only so-so for an NBA center. I noticed that he is getting better at setting picks as well. He and Bradley Beal have pretty good chemistry on the pick and roll and he is avoiding fouls (just 3.6 per 36 minutes).

Some other impressive numbers: he is averaging just 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes while also tabulating 1.9 assists. He's not a brilliant passer or anything, but he shows good awareness, making the right pass while avoiding stupid turnovers. For reference, Dwight Howard's career high is 2.0 assists per 36 minutes, and he did that as a 10-year veteran in Houston, turning the ball over 3.4 times in the process. Also, he's an 85% FT shooter.

Bryant ranks 1st in the league in TS%, 1st in ORtg, and 17th in WS/48 (among guys with 500+ minutes played). He's been doing it long enough that it no longer appears to be a fluke. The dude is SOLID. I'm a bit worried that he'll be hard to retain in free agency. I'm just hoping that nobody is willing to pay a ton for a rim runner who is merely average defensively.

I'd compare his situation to Montrezl Harrell's last offseason. He put up tremendous numbers for LAC - mostly as DAJ's backup. And he ended up re-signing for 2 years at 6 mil a year. Granted, he's considered under-sized (short), and that likely affected what he got.

[NatP4]

13th in RPM for centers. His DBPM is also positive. He’s not bad on defense by any means. Pretty solid actually, even if he looks shaky at times.

[nate33]

13th in RPM for centers. His DBPM is also positive. He’s not bad on defense by any means. Pretty solid actually, even if he looks shaky at times.

He ranks 19th in DBPM for centers who have played 500 or more minutes. There's about 28 centers in the league who have played 500+ minutes so he's slightly below average. I'm not hating. He's very young and inexperienced, so one would expect some defensive miscues. I'm just keeping it real.

[Ruzious]

13th in RPM for centers. His DBPM is also positive. He’s not bad on defense by any means. Pretty solid actually, even if he looks shaky at times.

He ranks 19th in DBPM for centers who have played 500 or more minutes. There's about 28 centers in the league who have played 500+ minutes so he's slightly below average. I'm not hating. He's very young and inexperienced, so one would expect some defensive miscues. I'm just keeping it real.

Right, he just needs experience and a little more work in the gym. And if he does a lot more work in the gym, he could become one of the better defensive centers in the game.

[Kanyewest]

Thomas Bryant is playing extremely well. Really really well. So he deserves praise.

Along the same lines, those who said he was a promising prospect -- like Nat did -- should get some recognition for it.

T
Aside from me, only Nat got it right:

...it’s the type of move we would be applauding if another team made it.

AHEM!

Speaking of being better than that:

Yes and no. I think the optics of the move from the perspective of Wall and around the league are that we did get the athletic big that John wanted. KOQ is more of a savvy floor bound positionally smart player, he is not the above the rim lob target that will make highlight plays. Raises our profile, even if it doesn't show up in the win column. Granted wins are what we care about, but we would like a motivated energetic happy team. Too, Dwight CAN BE a mismatch in our favor, O'Quinn will be a good player throughout his career. This team has not been built on a foundation of fundamentally solid players quietly acquired on smart moves, if we succeed it is because our talent out-talents their talent. A motivated Howard, with synergy next to John, can do that. O'Quinn won't. He will quietly do the grunt work, but won't ever crush and dominate. With John and Howard, playing at their best you can make the argument that they are among the best at their position, in the NBA more often than not Talent wins deepest. The Chauncey/Larry Brown Pistons excepted.

Partly though one danger is that O'Quinn's reliable game would cast shade on a developing player in Bryant. I'm happy we landed him, he's a real talent. its understandable he might have to play behind Howard, no allstar pedigree and dunk champion hops, but , his upside is pretty.

If Howard goes down with an injury we have opportunity to let the young cat get some real run to develop on court. If Howard plays well we will still develop a young guy for his future with the team. If we had O'Quinn and Bryant there's less of a wide shadow to shade him while he develops. Bigs seem to develop slower in the league. Ok granted I'd rather he learn the fundamentals from O'Quinn's example, I'm just saying his upside looks higher, more potential to develop, and with O'Quinn being younger, if we kept him he'd likely be playing in front of Bryant longer. Coaches want results, don't have the patience for upside. I think we see Bryant sooner and better playing behind Howard, as Howard has a greater risk of flaming out.

F**k silver lining. Lets soak these storm clouds in arsenic and strip mine the gold out of them.

But yeah, while Howard looks like he might be fun to watch in highlights, and Jeff Green can put up an occasional flying dunk or a good offensive night on junkyard plays, this offseason I'm more intrigued by the acquisition upside and development of the two young cats we picked up.

Troy and Thomas look like they could grow together. I like the ready and pretty-looking outside shot on the young big, and the read/react targeting software of our point forward.

I would love to see some of this:

Troy jr
Beal
[wing out shooter -- maybe the first half version of Kelly Jr]
Otto jr
Thomas Bryant jr

Basically all the juniors plus Beal and Bryant. With outside shooting from every position but Troy, and him actually bringing the ball up the court at times to draw their forward out of position.

I also "And1" that NatP4 post back then.

[payitforward]

It's a pleasure to watch his play. Aside from everything else, his high level of intensity, fist-pumping, pounding teammates on the back, etc. makes a fan feel really good about him.

Ruz's comparison to Harrell is a really good one.

We should be extending this kid right now.

[JWizmentality]

Scotty is still giving freakin Ian more playing time. FML.

[Kanyewest]

Scotty is still giving freakin Ian more playing time. FML.

In the last game Bryant picked up 2 fouls in the first 5 minutes of the game. Ian did play relatively well though getting 4 offensive rebounds and 5 steals. That being said, Bryant should be playing more barring foul trouble.

[Ruzious]

It's a pleasure to watch his play. Aside from everything else, his high level of intensity, fist-pumping, pounding teammates on the back, etc. makes a fan feel really good about him.

Ruz's comparison to Harrell is a really good one.

We should be extending this kid right now.

Exactly - why wait - extend him now. I suppose it's possible they're trying to now, but I'm not guessing they've been that proactive. All it takes is one team to make a huge offer, and we lose him.

[payitforward]

As long as we're on the "why wait" theme -- fire Ernie right now. Might make a lot more good things possible!

[closg00]

As long as we're on the "why wait" theme -- fire Ernie right now. Might make a lot more good things possible!

Ernie is out-of-danger again, the team has "stabilized" with John out & Ernie upgraded Jason Smith with Dekker. The injury excuse relieves the pressure on both Ted & Ernie.

[TheBabyMaker]

Thomas Bryant is like the big baby nephew I always wanted.

[nate33]

I was just thinking about the market for Thomas Bryant in the offseason. For the most part, there's not going to be much demand. There aren't many teams with both cap room and the need for a center.

The following teams are set at center and won't pay much money for a backup:
Philadelphia
Denver
Detroit
Houston
Minnesota
Utah
Phoenix
Portland
OKC
Indiana
Sacramento
San Antonio
Brooklyn
LA Clippers
New York
Orlando
New Orleans

The following teams have cap issues and won't spend money on Bryant:
Miami
Golden State
Toronto
Boston
Charlotte
Cleveland

The following teams might conceivably look to add Bryant, but probably not:
Memphis - but only if Gasol opts out, which is unlikely
Milwaukee - but they're pretty sure to invest their cap room elsewhere.
Chicago - is Markkanen ultimately going to play center full time?
LA Lakers - I assume they're after bigger fish with their cap room.

That leaves the two biggest threats:
Atlanta
Dallas

Both are rebuilding teams looking to get young, both have cap room, both have shrewd management, and neither have a center for the future. The question is, will they go after Bryant or someone else? Cousins is still out there. Vucevic can probably be pried from Orlando who would then just move Bamba into the starting role. Other veteran alternatives are Brook Lopez, DeAndre Jordan, Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn and Enes Kanter.

An offseason Anthony Davis trade to LA would help. New Orleans would still have Randall so they wouldn't be looking to add Bryant to replace him, but Cousins would have one less destination with LA out of the picture. Cousins would probably have to go to Dallas, taking one of Bryant's primary suitors out of the picture.

[FAH1223]

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