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Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard

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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#421 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 2, 2019 8:19 pm

nuposse04 wrote:Myles turner is basically the most valuable type of "role playing" center in the modern NBA. Elite defender (big gap between what you can do defensively with him and Bryant) and can provide floor spacing (better 3 pt shooter right now and takes more of em per 36). I think he would be probably more useful in playoff basketball then a guy like Capela, who basically has no half court offensive utility outside of lobs and put backs. One of Turner's problem is that he has to share the floor with Sabonis, who affords minimal if any floor spacing, and before that, Thad young(think he is gone now). I'm curious how much rim running Turner will do this upcoming season or if they will primarily use him as a stretch 5 (which will also lower the oh so beloved offensive rebounds for some folk :P ).

Turner does need to cut down on his mid range attempts if he wants to bring his TS up, although I don't see a 57% TS "bad" for a perimeter oriented big. Bryant barely takes any long 2s, so thats a plus that I hope he can continue. I'd say Turner is better now, but if Bryant becomes defensively above average, then he'd be better. I doubt any team is particularly mad with either guys. They're both fun to watch.

Right, last season they hardly played Sabonis and Turner together. Now, they have no other PF - other than TJ Leaf. Maybe they think Leaf is ready to take on more. If not, they're going to have to play Sabonis a lot more with Turner. Their only other big is another center - Bitadze. They do have a ton of guards now - I wonder if they go with 3 guard lineups - sometimes using Lamb at the 3 and go ultrasmall with TJ Warren at the 4.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#422 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 2, 2019 11:39 pm

nuposse04 wrote:Myles turner is basically the most valuable type of "role playing" center in the modern NBA. Elite defender (big gap between what you can do defensively with him and Bryant) and can provide floor spacing (better 3 pt shooter right now and takes more of em per 36). I think he would be probably more useful in playoff basketball then a guy like Capela, who basically has no half court offensive utility outside of lobs and put backs. One of Turner's problem is that he has to share the floor with Sabonis, who affords minimal if any floor spacing, and before that, Thad young(think he is gone now). I'm curious how much rim running Turner will do this upcoming season or if they will primarily use him as a stretch 5 (which will also lower the oh so beloved offensive rebounds for some folk :P ).

Turner does need to cut down on his mid range attempts if he wants to bring his TS up, although I don't see a 57% TS "bad" for a perimeter oriented big. Bryant barely takes any long 2s, so thats a plus that I hope he can continue. I'd say Turner is better now, but if Bryant becomes defensively above average, then he'd be better. I doubt any team is particularly mad with either guys. They're both fun to watch.

Every 80 minutes last season -- that's once every 2.8 games on average -- Myles Turner sank exactly one more 3 pt. shot than Thomas Bryant. You really think that 1 extra make every 2.8 games, while obviously a good thing, provides for a significant difference in better floor spacing? Really? I don't.

Meanwhile, in those same 80 minutes, Bryant turned 21.5 2-pointers into 29.5 points. Turner, otoh, put up just slightly more of them, 22.2, but got only 23.1 points out of his attempts.

So... Turner's utterly minimal "floor spacing" advantage gets put front & center, it is part of why he is a "most valuable" style player. But Bryant out-scoring him significantly on fewer shots... that's not worthy of mention. That doesn't render him valuable.

Not to mention that Bryant also provided his teammates with few extra shots in that same time, via offensive boards... that doesn't count either. Not to mention all those extra defensive boards, fewer turnovers, better FT%. All that stuff is minor compared to the effect of Turner's 1 more made 3 pointer every 80 minutes. Wow!

Then there's that made up "problem" Turner has to overcome. I say made up because you seem to think Thad Young was in the past last year. Actually, he started & played almost 2500 minutes last year. Moreover, Young is an under-sized 4 & not an inside player at all.

Moreover, since Sabonis did not start, & as often as not replaced Turner on the floor, I'm not sure what kind of a problem he gave Myles Turner in his log 1800+ off-the-bench minutes.

I'm not dinging Myles Turner. He's quite a good player, and for sure he's a better defender than Bryant. But, overall, he wasn't nearly as good as Thomas Bryant last year. Plus, in 20`7-18 -- his 3d year, when he was the age Bryant was last season -- he wasn't anywhere near as good as he was last year.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#423 » by nuposse04 » Tue Sep 3, 2019 12:25 am

payitforward wrote:Every 80 minutes last season -- that's once every 2.8 games on average -- Myles Turner sank exactly one more 3 pt. shot than Thomas Bryant. You really think that 1 extra make every 2.8 games, while obviously a good thing, provides for a significant difference in better floor spacing? Really? I don't.

The threat of actually attempting a shot from 3 pt range does effect how defenses guard players. If you don't think that is true, well then i'll just assume you didn't play pick up ball too much (at least as of late anyways). (Go on retort about how you have some grand life experiences that prolly outweigh my own)

Meanwhile, in those same 80 minutes, Bryant turned 21.5 2-pointers into 29.5 points. Turner, otoh, put up just slightly more of them, 22.2, but got only 23.1 points out of his attempts.


Yup Byrant is better at finishing around the rim. That's great. Turner needs to get better at it.


So... Turner's utterly minimal "floor spacing" advantage gets put front & center, it is part of why he is a "most valuable" style player. But Bryant out-scoring him significantly on fewer shots... that's not worthy of mention. That doesn't render him valuable.


I value Turner as much as I do mostly cause of how great he is on defense AND he's good enough on offense. Again I'm not gonna say Turner is better offensively then Bryant, cause Bryant was overall more efficient, albeit in a different role (which is something you will undoubtedly shoot down as nonsense cause the roles players are asked is tom foolery and the only thing that matters is what they produced yada yada). In a vacuum, I get you think Turner's offensive game is...bad? Or am I off base here?

Not to mention that Bryant also provided his teammates with few extra shots in that same time, via offensive boards... that doesn't count either. Not to mention all those extra defensive boards, fewer turnovers, better FT%. All that stuff is minor compared to the effect of Turner's 1 more made 3 pointer every 80 minutes. Wow!

We've been through this, I don't give a damn about offensive rebounds, I don't adhere to WP like you. Absolutely your prerogative to do so though :D The other stuff is true though, but I do wonder how much of that is from Bryant's offensive role being more simplistic. I'm happy he is as efficient as he is, but I'd like to see how he does as a true 2nd option with a lot of the offense being run through him, cause he put up a great TS on meh usage last year... I'd sacrifice some of that for more offense being run through him.

Then there's that made up "problem" Turner has to overcome. I say made up because you seem to think Thad Young was in the past last year. Actually, he started & played almost 2500 minutes last year. Moreover, Young is an under-sized 4 & not an inside player at all.

Uhhh, Thad Young did play for Pacers last year, I'm not sure how you are reading what I said (I was trying to say Thad young basically killed his spacing last year too, if it didn't come off that way, my bad.) but that aside... Nearly 75% of Thad Young's shot attempts came from inside 10 feet last year. Go add the Percents listed on Basketball reference if you don't believe me. Do you think a 4 who takes 75% of his shots from mid range and closer offers good floor spacing? Curious about the linguistic gymnastics you'll perform for this one.

Moreover, since Sabonis did not start, & as often as not replaced Turner on the floor, I'm not sure what kind of a problem he gave Myles Turner in his log 1800+ off-the-bench minutes.


This is true, I think they only shared 400ish+ mins together last year, but the fact that he had boy wonder in Thad young doesn't help. I'm more curious if they are gonna stick Turner out on the perimeter this season to try to get the most out of em, especially since they drafted bizdale. I'm guessing they could probably shop Sabonis for a starting quality 3 eventually, him or turner.

I'm not dinging Myles Turner. He's quite a good player, and for sure he's a better defender than Bryant. But, overall, he wasn't nearly as good as Thomas Bryant last year. Plus, in 20`7-18 -- his 3d year, when he was the age Bryant was last season -- he wasn't anywhere near as good as he was last year.


Age matched production you have a point. Turner was still better defensively then Bryant basically every year he's been in the NBA, except maybe his rookie season. I'm happy we have Bryant, very...if he learns to play defense well. We could have a borderline all star quality big in that case. I'm hoping it happens.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#424 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 3, 2019 7:36 pm

nuposse04 wrote:...Curious about the linguistic gymnastics you'll perform for this one....

One what? Moi? Oh you mean...

nuposse04 wrote:...I'm happy we have Bryant, ... an borderline all star quality big....

Finally you see the light!

(& all it took was a little "linguistic gymnastics.")
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#425 » by DCZards » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:27 pm

T. Bryant doing work this summer, especially check out the end and what Rico Hines says about the Zards youngin'.

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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#426 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:00 am

Wow... really nice to see that & to hear what Rico has to say about our guy.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#427 » by tontoz » Sat Sep 14, 2019 12:53 pm

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Bryant's 2pt% of 68.5% led the league. What makes this even more impressive is that:

- he is only 21 and hardly played in LA. This was his first season with regular playing time.
- he scored at a pretty high rate. his 18.2 pts per 36 is higher than Beal's first 3 seasons.
- he shoots jumpers. He isn't like Capela/Jordan who only score inside
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#428 » by nate33 » Sat Sep 14, 2019 1:14 pm

What gets me is that just about everybody not on this board thinks that Bryant is "just a guy". Indeed, the guys on the Wizards After Dark podcast and Nate Duncan's podcast were both a little skeptical about why we paid him so much for so long.

Meanwhile, I'm thinking we should have signed him for LONGER, even if it costed MORE.

I'm with Rico Hines. I think he'll be an All-Star. Or at least on the fringe of All-Star. He won't be better than Davis, Jokic, Embiid, or KAT, but he'll be in that next tier alongside Nurkic, Vucevik, Capela, Turner and Drummond; and in a couple of years, he'll probably move to the top of that tier.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#429 » by DCZards » Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:44 pm

tontoz wrote:Not sure if this has been mentioned but Bryant's 2pt% of 68.5% led the league. What makes this even more impressive is that:

- he is only 21 and hardly played in LA. This was his first season with regular playing time.
- he scored at a pretty high rate. his 18.2 pts per 36 is higher than Beal's first 3 seasons.
- he shoots jumpers. He isn't like Capela/Jordan who only score inside


That last point is particularly meaningful, imo. It’s usually big guys who score primarily on dunks and put backs who shoot that high of a %.

Maybe what I love most about Bryant is how hard he runs the court from end to end. He gets a lot of easy buckets doing that.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#430 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 14, 2019 6:11 pm

Agree w/ nate & zards.

Especially about signing him for longer -- I'd like to have signed him for 10 years!! :)
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#431 » by FAH1223 » Tue Oct 8, 2019 8:38 pm

seismic shift last night
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#432 » by BearlyBallin » Sun Nov 24, 2019 3:40 pm

Found this thread on page 3.
I felt Bryant’s game against Charlotte showed again how he changed this thread from sarcasm to respect and hope.

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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#433 » by perempe20 » Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:13 am

One thing is sure: can't call him soft.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#434 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:43 pm

Ruz posted this link to Kevin Broom's article on the trade board:

Ruzious wrote:Btw, here's an excellent article on Bryant written yesterday by a former great RealGMer who is an objective (eek!) Wizards fan: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/4/19/21226715/washington-wizards-isaiah-thomas-mistake-thomas-bryant-defense-analysis


Strong recommendation to read...
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#435 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:57 pm

payitforward wrote:Ruz posted this link to Kevin Broom's article on the trade board:

Ruzious wrote:Btw, here's an excellent article on Bryant written yesterday by a former great RealGMer who is an objective (eek!) Wizards fan: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2020/4/19/21226715/washington-wizards-isaiah-thomas-mistake-thomas-bryant-defense-analysis


Strong recommendation to read...

Good article.

I knew Thomas has bad, but I didn't realize how catastrophic he was to the defensive numbers of other players - not only Bryant but Rui too.

I'm open-minded to trading Bryant, but I suspect his value in the league has dropped due to the narrative that he had a down year. With that the case, I seriously doubt there is a Bryant trade that will help us. So we're better off keeping him and trying to develop him further - so that he can be our center of the future or he can be a better trade asset.

One thing I like about this team is that it's full of guys who really seem to care and want to work on their games: Bryant, Rui, Beal and Brown have fabulous reputations as practice players. Wagner too. And Bonga has come a long way as well. It increases the possibility that all these guys will be more valuable in the future than they are now.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#436 » by Ruzious » Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:37 pm

Yeah, I'd love to see how Bryant and the other young guys do next season with a strong foundation of Beal and Wall and hopefully adding a good defensive player up front.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#437 » by payitforward » Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:38 pm

nate33 wrote:...I'm open-minded to trading Bryant, but I suspect his value in the league has dropped due to the narrative that he had a down year....

For sure, we should be open-minded about trading Thomas Bryant, as we should be about trading any player -- it all depends on the deal, what's on offer.

That said, I might speculate slightly differently. I'm thinking that there will be a smart GM or two who will sense an opportunity to get extra value in a trade for Bryant by capitalizing on (what I see as) the Wizards misguided notion that with Wall back the team will make some noise next year, has a reasonable shot to get to R2 of the playoffs, maybe even compete for the EC title.

If so, that smart GM will come to Tommy asking for Bryant in return for a "solid" veteran in the last 1/3 of his career. I guess my biggest concern is that Ted might see that as an attractive direction. (As an aside, it looked to me like the choice to trade Howard for Miles rather than just cutting him might have been the product of this brand of thinking.)

OTOH, they did hire a lot of analytical talent, & that's where I'd expect to see the push-back come from, because this team is unlikely to be hugely better next year than it was this year & last year (tho certainly somewhat better -- knocking on the door of .500 isn't totally out of the question).

In any case, if we do move Bryant in that kind of deal it might reflect three beliefs that seem unwarranted to me: 1) an over-estimation of Rui, 2) an over-estimation of Bertans, & 3) an extremely optimistic expectation for what John Wall will be ready to provide upon his return (you may agree that the 3d of those has a chance to be an issue).

You differ with me, it seems clear, about the first two of the three -- & I hope you are right & I am wrong! Of course we both -- all of us -- hope John will come back extremely strong.

nate33 wrote:One thing I like about this team is that it's full of guys who really seem to care and want to work on their games: Bryant, Rui, Beal and Brown have fabulous reputations as practice players. Wagner too. And Bonga has come a long way as well. It increases the possibility that all these guys will be more valuable in the future than they are now.

Agreed. It was sad that the season was interrupted, maybe (likely) aborted. But, this year it was really fun to be a Wizards fan again!
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#438 » by FAH1223 » Sun Aug 2, 2020 2:05 am

I've seen enough. This kid will never play defense.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#439 » by Ruzious » Mon Aug 3, 2020 2:50 pm

FAH1223 wrote:I've seen enough. This kid will never play defense.

I'd like to see him play on a team that doesn't play absurdly bad perimeter defense. The Zards continue to play... absurdly bad perimeter defense. The only perimeter player on the roster that doesn't play awful defense is Bonga, and he's primarily our backup PF. We couldn't even cover Chiozza and made laVert look like an all-star.
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Re: Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard 

Post#440 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:12 pm

In response to something I suggested in the trade thread, nate writes:
nate33 wrote: I don't think the rest of the league values Bryant as anything more than a decent backup center on a somewhat expensive contract.

Independent of my trade suggestion there, I kind of doubt nate is right about how most GMs see Bryant -- or how they should see him-- for a bunch of reasons:

1. Youth -- Bryant turned 23 less than a month ago. There are players in this draft who are older than he is.

2. Last year's numbers -- Bryant posted really outstanding numbers in 2018-19. Comfortably in the top, say ,15% of all Centers. What those numbers mean is a different question, but the numbers were there.

3. Three-point shooting -- Bryant shot almost 41% this year. & in general was outstanding offensively (65% TS%).

4. After a slow start, all Bryant's numbers were on the rise the last 1/2 of the season.

Without initiating a big argument here, soberly in other words, what does anyone else think about Bryant's progress & potential?
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