Seismic Shift in the East: Thomas Bryant a Wizard

[FAH1223]

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[Ruzious]

Wizards head coach Wes Unseld Jr. has revealed that center Thomas Bryant, still recuperating from ACL surgery, could re-join Washington within the next two weeks, per Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington (Twitter link).

[nate33]

Wizards head coach Wes Unseld Jr. has revealed that center Thomas Bryant, still recuperating from ACL surgery, could re-join Washington within the next two weeks, per Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington (Twitter link).

2-3 weeks!

[closg00]

OT: What about Rui?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

So by about 23 January, the full complement of players will be on hand.

I love this team, with past Wizards teams in mind. Tons of flexibility and innovation on display by TOMMY SHEPPARD and usually good coaching but consistent POSITIVE and proactive feedback but WES JR.

[Ruzious]

TB (no, not Troy Brown) makes his return/debut tonight! https://hoopshype.com/2022/01/12/thomas-bryant-officially-returning-from-torn-acl-tonight/

Or at least he's available. Now comes the tricky part for WUJ - allocating minutes.

[FAH1223]

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[dobrojim]

How long before he makes a 3?

While I understand he's not very good defensively, he has had some monster offensive games
where he misses like ZERO or one shot. Wizards have struggled on offense at times so that
could be helpful.

Finding minutes without upsetting Gaff or Trez who have both played well obviously needs to be
taken into account.

[FAH1223]

How long before he makes a 3?

While I understand he's not very good defensively, he has had some monster offensive games
where he misses like ZERO or one shot. Wizards have struggled on offense at times so that
could be helpful.

Finding minutes without upsetting Gaff or Trez who have both played well obviously needs to be
taken into account.

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[Dolevi]

Love him and really been missing him. So good to see him on the floor.

[FAH1223]

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[closg00]

Just a fun thought exercise, who is the better player currently between our former Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant.

[DCZards]

Just a fun thought exercise, who is the better player currently between our former Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant.

Well, one of them is coming off of a major knee injury and struggling find minutes behind two other centers. There is that.

[mhd]

Just a fun thought exercise, who is the better player currently between our former Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant.

I always liked Mo. Good vet as a 3rd center type. Bryant obviously has the better counting stats, but I think Mo fits in better.

[nate33]

Just a fun thought exercise, who is the better player currently between our former Mo Wagner, and Thomas Bryant.

I always liked Mo. Good vet as a 3rd center type. Bryant obviously has the better counting stats, but I think Mo fits in better.

It's hard to compare the two right now because of injuries and role.

But when they were both on the Wizards, I thought that Bryant was the better overall player, but Wagner was better suited to be a situational role player. I think Wagner's effectiveness is highly dependent on the opponent's personnel and scheme. In some scenarios, he looks terrific, almost starting caliber, and in other scenarios, he is terrible. As a 3rd string center, a coach would have the flexibility to play him when the situation favored him, but leave him on the bench when it didn't. Basically, the Anthony Gill role.

Bryant is a more consistent player who can basically do what he does regardless of the competition. He'll be an effective scorer and an ineffective defender whenever you play him. But the catch with Bryant is that I don't think he would be satisfied in a 3rd center role. I get the sense that he wants major minutes because he believes that he can ultimately become a starting caliber player. Maybe I'm wrong about that, but that's my gut feel. Unfortunately, Bryant isn't good enough to be a regular minute player, at least not since his injury. So looking at it a certain way, it may be that Mo Wagner can help a team in a specific role (3rd string center) more so than Bryant can in his preferred role (starter or heavy-minute 2nd string center).

[payitforward]

Respectfully, I don't think that makes a lot of sense, nate. For several reasons:

1. For starters, how can any of us know what Bryant or Wagner wants for himself? Or, relatedly, how he'll react when he doesn't get what he wants.

2. How can it be sensible to judge Bryant as "not good enough" for any particular thing based on his play the first few hundred minutes after coming back from an ACL? In fairness, you point at this in your first sentence -- but then go on to do it anyway.

That said, if Bryant doesn't come back, then... he's a different player from the guy who played two terrific seasons for us.

Wagner, OTOH, just plain isn't good. Even that first year w/ us, he was awful. He started the season shooting the 3 really well. Then he went completely down the tubes. Then there were the fouls....

It hasn't gotten better: this year, for a truly awful team, Moe Wagner has managed to earn himself 13 minutes a game.

Actually, it's unfair to cast him in "the Anthony Gill role." Gill is a better player by far than Wagner.

[nate33]

Respectfully, I don't think that makes a lot of sense, nate. For several reasons:

1. For starters, how can any of us know what Bryant or Wagner wants for himself? Or, relatedly, how he'll react when he doesn't get what he wants.

2. How can it be sensible to judge Bryant as "not good enough" for any particular thing based on his play the first few hundred minutes after coming back from an ACL? In fairness, you point at this in your first sentence -- but then go on to do it anyway.

That said, if Bryant doesn't come back, then... he's a different player from the guy who played two terrific seasons for us.

Wagner, OTOH, just plain isn't good. Even that first year w/ us, he was awful. He started the season shooting the 3 really well. Then he went completely down the tubes. Then there were the fouls....

It hasn't gotten better: this year, for a truly awful team, Moe Wagner has managed to earn himself 13 minutes a game.

Actually, it's unfair to cast him in "the Anthony Gill role." Gill is a better player by far than Wagner.

Here are their per-100 possession numbers this season:



Wagner has a substantial advantage in scoring, and scoring efficiency, and they're about even on rebounding. Bryant turns the ball over less but also gets fewer assists so that's about a wash. The only real advantage Bryant has is blocked shots, but that's mostly offset if you factor that Wagner draws 0.7 charges per 48 minutes. (Charges drawn are better than blocked shots because they guarantee a change of possession, and they're even better than steals because they result in a foul charged to the opposition's player.)

If you want to ignore Bryant's performance this year due to injury, and instead look at Bryant's averages over the last 4 years, Bryant looks just a little ahead of what Wagner has done this year (basically the same numbers as Wagner but with 1.8 extra rebounds and fewer fouls). But Wagner's advanced on/off metrics this year (BPM, RAPTOR) are still better than Bryant's average over the last 4 seasons, suggesting Wagner's intangibles and defense are superior.

Bryant has never posted a positive RAPTOR, either the overall metric or just the on/off metric. And RAPTOR says he has been truly dreadful this year:


Wagner is posting a positive on/off RAPTOR this year, better than any of Bryant's seasons. His overall RAPTOR score has been pretty consistently better than Bryant over the last 3 seasons:


Lastly, I'll add that Wagner is on a vet minimum contract. I don't know what Bryant will cost next season, but if it's much more than the vet minimum, Wagner will surely be the better value.

[payitforward]

Here's how to look at Bryant: start by examining his numbers in '18-19 & '19-20. That's who he was before he was injured. Those numbers are way better than any season of Wagner's.

This year, Bryant has been no better than Wagner. But, Moe has never had a good season, while Bryant was outstanding both of the first 2 seasons when he got to play real minutes.

The best comparison year is '19-20 -- b/c Moe was a rookie the previous season & didn't play enough minutes.

Per 40 minutes in 2019-20, Bryant scored more points at a higher TS%. He got more defensive boards, more offensive rebounds, more assists, more blocks, had way fewer turnovers, & committed half as many fouls! Wagner had more steals.

It wasn't close, nate -- Bryant's season wasn't as good as the previous one but it was quite good all the same. Wagner was awful.

The question about Bryant is whether he'll return to that form. If he does, he's a valuable player. At his current level of play... no. But, we don't know which way it'll go. & from where fans like you & me sit, we also don't have access to any info about him physically -- if there's something that would give a person some further insight, which we also don't know!

But, we know everything we need to know about Wagner.

As to RAPTOR, until you or anyone tells me how it's calculated I'm uninterested in what it has to say. &, since it does not correlate well with the actual results at team level that actually determine wins/losses, I'm skeptical anyway. But, that's a different conversation.

At this point, Bryant looks like a roll of the dice at best, while Wagner has zero positive worth.

If I was choosing between the two of them at the same salary, common sense would say to choose Bryant -- at least there's some chance he returns to form.

Leaving Bryant out of the equation, I'd rather have some mid-low R2 rookie, whoever I like best at any position, than Wagner.

[GoneShammGone]

Bumping this thread since we may be in the last four games of TB's tenure as a Wizard.

I've always loved TB because of his energy and attitude. He's an easy guy to root for, plus he's got an intriguing skill set. But it looks like his run in DC is coming to an end. The fact that he is regularly getting DNP CDs for a non-playoff team running out the string means he's unlikely to be back.

So where does he go from here? Coming off an ACL injury and a season with sporadic playing time, does he cost any more than the vet minimum next year? And would he sign here even if the Wizards wanted him? With Gaff and KP in front of him, I have to figure there are more attractive teams out there who could offer him a bigger role.

Personally, I think TB is a solid backup center. His defense is sub-par, but its not as bad as people make it out. For 15-20 minutes a game his shooting and hustle can benefit a team. I know its incredibly unlikely, but I still would love to see the Wizards try him at the 4. Let him back up Rui for the last 4 games. He's not going to be able to switch to guards, but I think he could do a decent job contesting jumpers. Playing him with Gaff or KP means you don't need to rely on him for rim protection ... just let him make plays with hustle and energy and knock down a few jumpers.

Alas, I don't think that's gonna happen. So farewell TB, I enjoyed watching you as a Wizard!

[payitforward]

I think that sounds just about right, Shamm.... Wish the kid well. Seems like a really terrific person.

The only other potential perspective is that the staff has figured out that, in some way & for some reason, he hasn't yet recovered physically, & that's why he's not playing. Not saying that's likely....