nate33 wrote:payitforward wrote:Philly just got Glenn Robinson & Alec Burks for 3 R2 picks. I think those are 2 quite under-rated players. Good for them.
But... bad for us! Why? B/c Elton Brand under-values R2 picks, & I'd been hoping he'd be there to sell us an extra one every year until he gets fired!
Yeah. McRae to Philly for a 2nd would have made so much sense. That said, the three 2nds Golden State got were terrible. 2nd rounders lower than the 45th pick or so are all but worthless.
I think that's something of an overstatement. More to the point, I think there's something interesting to think about in the question.
Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:
Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.
Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.
Interestingly, more than half of the list is from the last two drafts. Partly this reflects the fact that guys who will fail & go unremembered are in their "give 'em a chance" period. But, even more, it reflects how incredibly deep the 2018 draft seems to have been, as it looks to me like at least 7 of those 9 are likely to be solid NBA players. Of the 14 guys from last year, some are on 2-way contracts of course -- but at least 7 of them have 3-year deals w/ team options for years 2 & 3.
Above all, what I take from this is that GMs have come to realize that they aren't as good as they once thought they were at sorting young kids by how good they are likely to be. I'd say that's one big reason for making so much more of the G League & for the invention of 2-way contracts.
Even just R2 picks in general, though I don't have any data on this, it'd be interesting to know what % of them get NBA contracts these days vs say 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Is the % growing?
Anyway, though of course way fewer #45 & lower picks make the league than guys picked in R1, there do seem to be a whole lot of good ones!