RealGM

nate33 wrote:

payitforward wrote:Philly just got Glenn Robinson & Alec Burks for 3 R2 picks. I think those are 2 quite under-rated players. Good for them.

But... bad for us! Why? B/c Elton Brand under-values R2 picks, & I'd been hoping he'd be there to sell us an extra one every year until he gets fired!

Yeah. McRae to Philly for a 2nd would have made so much sense. That said, the three 2nds Golden State got were terrible. 2nd rounders lower than the 45th pick or so are all but worthless.

I think that's something of an overstatement. More to the point, I think there's something interesting to think about in the question.

Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:

Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.

Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.

Interestingly, more than half of the list is from the last two drafts. Partly this reflects the fact that guys who will fail & go unremembered are in their "give 'em a chance" period. But, even more, it reflects how incredibly deep the 2018 draft seems to have been, as it looks to me like at least 7 of those 9 are likely to be solid NBA players. Of the 14 guys from last year, some are on 2-way contracts of course -- but at least 7 of them have 3-year deals w/ team options for years 2 & 3.

Above all, what I take from this is that GMs have come to realize that they aren't as good as they once thought they were at sorting young kids by how good they are likely to be. I'd say that's one big reason for making so much more of the G League & for the invention of 2-way contracts.

Even just R2 picks in general, though I don't have any data on this, it'd be interesting to know what % of them get NBA contracts these days vs say 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Is the % growing?

Anyway, though of course way fewer #45 & lower picks make the league than guys picked in R1, there do seem to be a whole lot of good ones!

payitforward wrote:Interestingly, more than half of the list is from the last two drafts.

I think we interpret this differently - I'd agree that scouting is probably improving, and that the overall talent pool seems to be as well, but to me this just illustrates the sizable drop-off between second round picks who appear to have some NBA potential after a year or two in the league and those that actually go on to fully realize it. Put another way, saying that from 2008-2017 picks 45 or later produced 20 total players at or above a relatively low threshold of notability produces a somewhat less rosy picture. I wouldn't say worthless, but not something to lose too much sleep over.

edit: Being pedantic, I guess Nate said lower than the 45th pick - of the 2008-2017 group, this would actually exclude Dotson and Muscala (who were actually picked 44th), plus Brooks, D. Powell, and Dragic (picked 45th). If we were to be charitable with the or so and also remove 46th picks, we'd lose N. Powell, Clarkson, Miller, and Green, winnowing the list to 11 players taken with picks past #46 from 2008-2017.

Brilliant trade by the Warriors if you ask me.

Obviously a huge bet by Golden State that their culture is going to help them turn around Wiggins value, but unlike Russel he's a natural fit with Curry and Thompson and that lottery pick and high 2nd sets them up lovely to round out and augment their roster around their core group.

I get it from the Timberwolves standpoint, they had to do something, but they're going to look really stupid if Towns wants out.

Not for spot filler on a caped out tax team. It works . Also I wouldn't be shocked if we traded McRae to the bucks or the clippers any team in need of another shooter.

nate33 wrote:

payitforward wrote:Philly just got Glenn Robinson & Alec Burks for 3 R2 picks. I think those are 2 quite under-rated players. Good for them.

But... bad for us! Why? B/c Elton Brand under-values R2 picks, & I'd been hoping he'd be there to sell us an extra one every year until he gets fired!

Yeah. McRae to Philly for a 2nd would have made so much sense. That said, the three 2nds Golden State got were terrible. 2nd rounders lower than the 45th pick or so are all but worthless.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

queridiculo wrote:Brilliant trade by the Warriors if you ask me.

Obviously a huge bet by Golden State that their culture is going to help them turn around Wiggins value, but unlike Russel he's a natural fit with Curry and Thompson and that lottery pick and high 2nd sets them up lovely to round out and augment their roster around their core group.

I get it from the Timberwolves standpoint, they had to do something, but they're going to look really stupid if Towns wants out.

Agreed. Amazing trade.

It got them out of the luxtax which saves them from the repeater tax going forward (could be worth $30M).

It gets them a bigger SF instead of a redundant guard. It's possible that they can convince Wiggins to be an athletic, defensive minded role player instead of the high volume low efficiency scorer he has been in Minnesota.

But the real beauty is that they land the Minnesota #1 pick. Between that pick and their own 2020 lotto pick, they'll have a lot of assets to trade for some really good help in the offseason. Could they package their #1 with Wiggins to get JRue? And then package the Wolves pick with Looney to get an upgrade at center?

wall_glizzy wrote:

payitforward wrote:Interestingly, more than half of the list is from the last two drafts.

I think we interpret this differently - I'd agree that scouting is probably improving, and that the overall talent pool seems to be as well, but to me this just illustrates the sizable drop-off between second round picks who appear to have some NBA potential after a year or two in the league and those that actually go on to fully realize it. Put another way, saying that from 2008-2017 picks 45 or later produced 20 total players at or above a relatively low threshold of notability produces a somewhat less rosy picture. I wouldn't say worthless, but not something to lose too much sleep over.

edit: Being pedantic, I guess Nate said lower than the 45th pick - of the 2008-2017 group, this would actually exclude Dotson and Muscala (who were actually picked 44th), plus Brooks, D. Powell, and Dragic (picked 45th). If we were to be charitable with the or so and also remove 46th picks, we'd lose N. Powell, Clarkson, Miller, and Green, winnowing the list to 11 players taken with picks past #46 from 2008-2017.

Fine fine you caught me cheating on Dotson/Muscala -- I was tempted to try to slip a few other guys in as well, to tell the truth. I took out Andre Drummond & Domantis Sabonis b/c I figured someone would see through me!

Obviously, no one thinks that NBA scouts are blind! If they were, they'd become refs. So, sure, overall the chart shows an accelerating drop in results as you go further & further down the draft. Moreover, I didn't say that nate was wrong about that -- or about anything. I said "virtually useless" was kind of an overstatement. Thus, my burden of proof was fairly minor.

Still... I did cheat. A little.

queridiculo wrote:Brilliant trade by the Warriors if you ask me.

Obviously a huge bet by Golden State that their culture is going to help them turn around Wiggins value, but unlike Russel he's a natural fit with Curry and Thompson and that lottery pick and high 2nd sets them up lovely to round out and augment their roster around their core group.

I get it from the Timberwolves standpoint, they had to do something, but they're going to look really stupid if Towns wants out.

Yes, it was a brilliant trade. Weirdly, if you think of Russell & Wiggins both as low-likelihood long-term bets -- one no more likely than the other, then...

GS just traded Evans & Spellman for a lottery pick & a high 2d.

If I were golden State I wouldn't trade those picks just take the best player you can get. Unless you really wanna unload green or loony.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

payitforward wrote:

nate33 wrote:

payitforward wrote:Philly just got Glenn Robinson & Alec Burks for 3 R2 picks. I think those are 2 quite under-rated players. Good for them.

But... bad for us! Why? B/c Elton Brand under-values R2 picks, & I'd been hoping he'd be there to sell us an extra one every year until he gets fired!

Yeah. McRae to Philly for a 2nd would have made so much sense. That said, the three 2nds Golden State got were terrible. 2nd rounders lower than the 45th pick or so are all but worthless.

I think that's something of an overstatement. More to the point, I think there's something interesting to think about in the question.

Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:

Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.

Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.

Interestingly, more than half of the list is from the last two drafts. Partly this reflects the fact that guys who will fail & go unremembered are in their "give 'em a chance" period. But, even more, it reflects how incredibly deep the 2018 draft seems to have been, as it looks to me like at least 7 of those 9 are likely to be solid NBA players. Of the 14 guys from last year, some are on 2-way contracts of course -- but at least 7 of them have 3-year deals w/ team options for years 2 & 3.

Above all, what I take from this is that GMs have come to realize that they aren't as good as they once thought they were at sorting young kids by how good they are likely to be. I'd say that's one big reason for making so much more of the G League & for the invention of 2-way contracts.

Even just R2 picks in general, though I don't have any data on this, it'd be interesting to know what % of them get NBA contracts these days vs say 10 years ago or 20 years ago. Is the % growing?

Anyway, though of course way fewer #45 & lower picks make the league than guys picked in R1, there do seem to be a whole lot of good ones!

I appreciate this post a whole bunch, pif. Very good research/recall to point out that there are some finds late in round 2, or even un-drafted.

Wow, the extreme low value of Drummond, someone please splain

Not sure where to put this, but FYI it looks like Jonas Valanciunas is questionable for tonight's game against the Sixers. If he sits, it should be our first chance to see a full game with a Clarke/Jackson Jr starting frontcourt. The only other time it happened, Clarke had to leave halfway through the second quarter, I believe due to a hip injury.

I'll probably flip back and forth between this and our date with the Mavs.

edit: Should we start a thread for potentially edifying non-Zards matchups? Would anyone but me be interested in that?

They knew no one was going to pay for drummand considering he might opt out ( he shouldn't) and no one wants to risk that 2021 cap room

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app

[quote="wall_glizzy"]Not sure where to put this, but FYI it looks like Jonas Valanciunas is questionable for tonight's game against the Sixers. If he sits, it should be our first chance to see a full game with a Clarke/Jackson Jr starting frontcourt. The only other time it happened, Clarke had to leave halfway through the second quarter, I believe due to a hip injury.

I'll probably flip back and forth between this and our date with the Mavs.

edit: Should we start a thread for potentially edifying non-Zards matchups? Would anyone but me be interested in that?[/quoteIt] might be just a 1 game thing, because Memphis traded for Dieng and Jordan Bell - though they are not expected to play tonight. They also got Justice Winslow. Did they also get James Johnson? All of those players can defend. I really like where Memphis is headed - though they could still use another 3 point shooter.

Ruzious wrote:It might be just a 1 game thing, because Memphis traded for Dieng and Jordan Bell - though they are not expected to play tonight. They also got Justice Winslow. Did they also get James Johnson? All of those players can defend. I really like where Memphis is headed - though they could still use another 3 point shooter.

Oh, yeah - I assume JV's return (or presence tonight) will set the rotations mostly back to normal. Johnson was sent out in exchange for Dieng, and I'd completely forgotten that they'd swapped Caboclo for Bell. Winslow seems to be out indefinitely, don't think anyone's really sure what his injury status is at the moment. Until that's resolved, it seems like we should also see a good portion of minutes for De'Anthony Melton, who I know I've seen mentioned around here several times.

wall_glizzy wrote:

Ruzious wrote:It might be just a 1 game thing, because Memphis traded for Dieng and Jordan Bell - though they are not expected to play tonight. They also got Justice Winslow. Did they also get James Johnson? All of those players can defend. I really like where Memphis is headed - though they could still use another 3 point shooter.

Oh, yeah - I assume JV's return (or presence tonight) will set the rotations mostly back to normal. Johnson was sent out in exchange for Dieng, and I'd completely forgotten that they'd swapped Caboclo for Bell. Winslow seems to be out indefinitely, don't think anyone's really sure what his injury status is at the moment. Until that's resolved, it seems like we should also see a good portion of minutes for De'Anthony Melton, who I know I've seen mentioned around here several times.

And Melton's another talented defender. It'll be interesting to see how good that team will get defensively. It's a given that JJJ and Clarke can do special things on D. Bell does nothing on offense, but he's another defensive monster. Dieng is a classic defensive center. If Winslow comes back healthy - that's a versatile physical wing defender. Wow.

I really liked De'Anthony Melton in R2 in 2018, & he's proving out extremely well.

One team's moves (or lack thereof) is OKC. They are a fascinating story for this year and I think they are going to get a top 4 seed in the west - many didn't think they would even make the playoffs.

Next season they have all of their meaningful players coming back sans Nerlens Noel who has been playing great off the bench.

And the picked up some assets moving forward (wait are some of those our picks )

2020 first round draft pick from Cleveland
Cleveland's 2020 1st round pick to New Orleans (via Atlanta) protected for selections 1-10; if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Cleveland will instead convey its 2021 2nd round pick and 2022 2nd round pick to New Orleans

2020 second round draft pick from Milwaukee
Milwaukee's 2020 2nd round pick to New Orleans

2020 second round draft pick from Washington
Washington's 2020 2nd round pick to New Orleans (via Milwaukee)

2021 first round draft pick from L.A. Lakers
L.A. Lakers' 1st round pick to New Orleans protected for selections 8-30 in 2021 and unprotected in 2022

2021 second round draft pick from Washington
Washington's 2021 2nd round pick to New Orleans (via Utah to Cleveland to Milwaukee)

2023 first round draft pick from L.A. Lakers
New Orleans has the right to swap its 2023 1st round pick for the L.A. Lakers' 2023 1st round pick

2023 second round draft pick from Washington
Washington's 2023 2nd round pick to New Orleans

2024 first round draft pick from L.A. Lakers
L.A. Lakers' 2024 1st round pick to New Orleans or New Orleans has the right to instead receive the L.A. Lakers' 2025 1st round pick

payitforward wrote:Players taken #45 or later since 2008, include:

Goran Dragic, Danny Green, Patty Mills, Lavoy Allen, E'Twaun Moore, Isaiah Thomas, Kyle O'Quinn, Darius Miller, Mike Muscala, Raul Neto, Dwight Powell, Jordan Clarkson, Jordan McRae, Norman Powell, Jake Layman, Abdel Nader, Dillon Brooks, Damyean Dotson, Monte Morris, Edmund Sumner, Hamidou Diallo, De'Anthony Melton, Steve Mykhialuk, Keita Bates-Diop, Chimezie Metu, Alize Johnson, Shake Milton, Kevin Hervey, Ray Spalding, Quinndary Weatherspoon, Isaiah Roby, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ignas Brazdeikis, Terance Mann, Jarrell Brantley, Tremont Waters, Jalen McDaniels, Justin Wright-Foreman, Marial Shayok, Kyle Guy, Jordan Bone, Miye Oni, Dewan Hernandez.

Obviously, there are some outstanding players on that list, as well as some solid players who have played (or did play) significant minutes reasonably well. I didn't include undrafted players -- who, obviously, would have been available to any team w/ one of those #45 or lower picks.

Dragic - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Green - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Mills - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Allen - mediocre player available for the vet minimum after his rookie contract was up.
Moore - was waived after 1 year. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Thomas - a good example of value late in the draft.
O'Quinn - a good example of value late in the draft.
Miller - was waived after 2 years. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
Muscala - drafted 44th. I said, "lower than 45th or so".
Neto - had one half-decent year his rookie season and was a 3rd stringer thereafter.
D.Powell - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
Clarkson - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
McRae - was waived after 1 month. Later signed as a free agent. Provided no value as a draft pick.
N.Powell - a good example of value late in the draft. Though he was picked 46th.
Layman - had one decent year as a rotation player. Ultimately traded for the 59th pick.
Nader - has given no indication that he'll stick around past his rookie contract.
Brooks - drafted 45th. I said, "lower than 45th or so"
M.Morris - possibly an example of value late in the draft.

All the rest of the guys you listed have only been in the league a year or two and haven't proven to be worth anything more than your average undrafted walk-on. To avoid having to predict the future, let's just ignore the last 2 years and focus on 2008 to 2017.

Basically, there were 5 guys from 2008 to 2017 picked 46th or later that actually had value: IT, O'Quinn, Clarkson, Norman Powell and Monte Morris. And 2 of those guys were picked with the 46th pick. If we are generous with my "or so" modifier, there were just 3 guys out of 140 picks between 47th and 60th from 2008 to 2017 that had value. A 2% success rate. And only IT became a legit starter.

I suspect the success rate on undrafted walk-ons is higher, or at least the risk is reduced because you can easily sign them to two-way contracts and cycle through them quickly without burdening your roster or your cap.

I stand behind my statement. Late 2nd rounders, (47th or later, to be specific) are virtually worthless.

Marvin Williams bought out and apparently is headed to the Bucks. Might seem inconsequential but when he was with the Hawks i remember him as a surprisingly good defender against Lebron. He has quick feet and very good length (standing reach 9'1" i believe) which seemed to give Lebron trouble.

He's a good vet near the end of his run . Good ring chase move by him and good grab for the bucks.

tontoz wrote:Marvin Williams bought out and apparently is headed to the Bucks. Might seem inconsequential but when he was with the Hawks i remember him as a surprisingly good defender against Lebron. He has quick feet and very good length (standing reach 9'1" i believe) which seemed to give Lebron trouble.

Sent from my SM-G965U1 using RealGM mobile app