nate33 wrote: payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:Its bad, but there is some upside with Wall. His strength/balance right now are absurd. He's mini Lebron and finishing through contact like never before. That, along with his improved defense and less iso 2's are enough for me to be okay with where he is. Again, he looks healthy and active on D while showing a MUCH better shot selection and ability to draw Fouls...I'll take it.
His 3 will settle back in to the low-mid 30% range and by seasons end will be a 5-7 PG in the NBA. We can live with that...
Wall is taking more 2 point shots this year than last. Yes, his 2 pt. % is at a career-high while his 3 pt.% is extremely low -- but, predicting that one of those shooting %s will return to the mean, but the other one won't doesn't make much sense to me.
Overall, the rest of what he's been doing is more or less on a par with last year -- some things down, some things up, but all in all about the same. Note, that's on a par w/ last year
-- not 2016-17.
Top 5-7 PG in the NBA? What year was he that?
I assume you'd be making the claim for 2016-17, which was certainly his best year. But, that year, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Kyle Lowry, Mike Conley, Steph Curry, & Isaiah Thomas all put up better numbers than John did. No need to argue with me about that, just look at the numbers without cherry-picking the ones you like best.
That was his best year, & he was #8 (not to mention that you could argue that both Jeff Teague & Ricky Rubio put up numbers at least as good as John's -- but leave them out).
I hope he returns to that form. But, "hope" is the right word. Lets leave praising him as "mini-Lebron" for when he puts up some Lebron numbers. Even mini-Lebron numbers.
Note, I'm NOT criticizing John Wall, who is an outstanding player.
Shot selection matters and Wall's shot selection has been superb. He is taking a lot more shots from the rim and from the free throw line. That's why his 2P% is at a career high. He's not shooting from any particular spot on the floor all that much better, he is merely shooting from the right places. Look at his % of FGA by distance compared to career norms:
PIF, Nate said it best. Hes not making a bunch of 18 ft jumpers...that would be an outlier and unsustainable. He is getting the basket at will and he doesnt look nearly as wild and bouncing around.
Im sure it's "Possible" his 3 doesnt come back... but the sample size over the last 3 years indicates otherwise. Also, I didnt assume improvement or even equal to the 37% from last year. I said 35% would be enough.
Semantics, but I didnt mean top 5-7. I meant somewhere in 5-7 range. Top 4 are locked in
Curry, Paul, Lowry, and Westbrook are the top 4. No order
5-9 is Lillard, Wall, Walker, Irving, and Simmons. No order.
Now, you can argue that Wall is currently # 9 on that list, but I said seasons end. I dont see any young cat behind him climbing. And a couple in front have real questions moving forward.
: Will his knee injurie(s) further deplete an already terrible defensive player.
: While Elite in time, does he have a sophomore slump as teams can game plan to limit his Profound strengths by exposing his profound shooting weakness.
: Turning 34 with constant injury problems, does his ranking take a hit as his true impact is limited.
I.E. How valuable is an elite player that gets you 55 wins if they miss key playoff games?
18: Missed games 6/7 vs GSW
17: Bad against Jazz
16: Missed games 6/7 vs POR
15: Missed games 1/2... and then bad in 3 of 5 games vs HOU
Thats 4 straight years. BTW, Not rhetorical...serious calculation of value question.