Playoff Prediction Poll

[closg00]

From what you've seen so-far from us and our competition, do you think we make the playoffs, Yes or No?

[Wizardspride]

Yes, I think we're going to improve and make the postseason.

Now do I WANT to make the postseason?

NO!

[closg00]

Yes, I think we're going to improve and make the postseason.

Now do I WANT to make the postseason?

NO!

Agree, I DON'T want to see a mid/late-season push for the 8th seed. If we make the playoffs, Ted & Ernie are home free.

[FAH1223]

Nope. Looking at the schedule I think they’ll be 20-32 at the end of January.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

I hope not!

[nate33]

I think the Wizards have too much ground to make up. They dug a deep hole by going 2-9 in their first 11 games. Since then, they've been halfway competent, going 11-12. But halfway competent isn't enough; they have to be legitimately good in order to make up all that lost ground. All they've done is stop the bleeding.

I don't think they make the playoffs. I just hope that they don't even make a strong enough push to give anyone a false sense of hope. I'd prefer that they're still 4 games behind the 8th seed at the Trade Deadline.

[Halcyon]

I don't see how they can fix their defense enough to make a push. Probably would require a hot streak like they had that one year, but I kind of doubt it with this version of the Wizards. I think Wall sleep walks through the rest of the year, but we probably win too much to get a good lotto pick.

[Shanghai Kid]

I thought there was a chance depending on how they did this month.

They haven't been able to put it together. Playoffs is an absolute long shot.

It makes more sense to cheer for a lottery pick now.

[TGW]

Grunfailed is looking at the standings, and he sees the Wizards being 2 games out of the 8 spot. That's all he needs to sell the short-term fix (and lobby for his job).

I think we may see a trade for Kevin Love. More than likely it will involve the first rounder. So no need to root for a high lottery pick because it's going to some other team.

[BigA]

One possibility is that John gets hurt and they go on another "everybody eats" run that puts them in playoff contention. Then they make a win-now move like trading their pick with Morris for a rental (who would be the candidates?).

[dckingsfan]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[dckingsfan]

I don't see how they can fix their defense enough to make a push. Probably would require a hot streak like they had that one year, but I kind of doubt it with this version of the Wizards. I think Wall sleep walks through the rest of the year, but we probably win too much to get a good lotto pick.

If Porter comes back (and healthy) and if they play Brown and Bryant bigger minutes. And limit Wall/Beal's minutes to where they aren't constantly exhausted.

Then they could "fix' the D enough to make a push.

But who is the coach? Not going to happen - onto the lottery especially with how the Nets and Heat are now playing

[nate33]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

[dckingsfan]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

Yep, and if you are actually watching the games, the Nets look really good. Maybe the injuries for Miami?

Detroit has looked really bad lately.

[LyricalRico]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

Yep, and if you are actually watching the games, the Nets look really good. Maybe the injuries for Miami?

Detroit has looked really bad lately.

Yeah, I think losing Dragic will catch up to the Heat and Detriot is regressing to who I thought they were. I'm guessing it ends up being Brooklyn and Washington vying for the 8th spot, with the edge to Brooklyn at this point. But I'll hold off on my official vote for a few more weeks.

[dckingsfan]

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

Yep, and if you are actually watching the games, the Nets look really good. Maybe the injuries for Miami?

Detroit has looked really bad lately.

Yeah, I think losing Dragic will catch up to the Heat and Detriot is regressing to who I thought they were. I'm guessing it ends up being Brooklyn and Washington vying for the 8th spot, with the edge to Brooklyn at this point. But I'll hold off on my official vote for a few more weeks.

Weird that since losing Dragic they have gone on a winning streak. I am thinking both Brooklyn and Miami hit 40 wins. Unless the Wizards winning streak starts soon, it will be too late to catch either of those teams.

[Shanghai Kid]

I'll say this, the next 5 games are winnable.

IF they somehow go 5-0 or 4-1 over the next 5 than I think the playoffs are possible.

Schedule seems brutal after that.

So I'd say the entire season rides on the next 5 games.

[Eli Babak]

Yes, I think we're going to improve and make the postseason.

Now do I WANT to make the postseason?

NO!

This.

I'm scared. They'll make 7-8th seed and lose in the first round, but Ted's fine with that because he gets some playoff revenue. They miss the playoffs? Ernie uses "we missed two starters (and Wall) for xx games"-card and anyway he manages to get under tax using our 2019 1st. We're doomed.

[BigA]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

Note that they do a base prediction at the beginning of the season using their projections for individual players, and then update their projections/predictions through the season. See their methodology explanation page. 538's preseason prediction was for the Wizards to finish 4th in the EC, with a 92% chance to make the playoffs.

It appears that their projections still reflect their preseason input to a great extent. I think the assumption that the Wizards will start performing like 48 win team is still baked in there. Presumably, their projections will eventually reflect more of the actual performance from this season.

[dckingsfan]

Interesting... they have us with a 58% chance of making the playoffs and winning 38 games.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nba-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Very interesting indeed. Apparently, Five Thirty-Eight is not a believer in Orlando or Brooklyn (16% and 32% chance of making the playoffs respectively). They see it as a 4-way race between Detroit (68%), Charlotte (67%), Miami (60%), and Washington (58%) to grab the final 3 seeds.

That really is surprising that they view Washington as having roughly the same chance as those other 3 teams despite us trailing them by 4 games. It's not because of strength of schedule. Our strength of schedule so far has been roughly equal to that of those 3 other teams.

Note that they do a base prediction at the beginning of the season using their projections for individual players, and then update their projections/predictions through the season. See their methodology explanation page. 538's preseason prediction was for the Wizards to finish 4th in the EC, with a 92% chance to make the playoffs.

It appears that their projections still reflect their preseason input to a great extent. I think the assumption that the Wizards will start performing like 48 win team is still baked in there. Presumably, their projections will eventually reflect more of the actual performance from this season.

Ah, that makes sense - it would take time for the projections to completely reflect reality. Guess 92 to 58% is certainly a trend.