Why Have We Gotten Better?

[payitforward]

After winning the first 3 games in December (2 of the wins were over Atlanta & the Knicks), we proceeded to go 2-6 in our next 8.

Since then we have gone 7-4. Why? The question is particularly interesting in that game by game over the last several weeks, Jeff Green has been returning to his average level of production. I.e. getting less productive.

I imagine there'll be some who point to the departure of Kelly Oubre & the arrival of Trevor Ariza -- having Ariza on the floor taking Oubre's minutes.

But, that's not the answer. Overall, Ariza hasn't played particularly better than Oubre. Which is to say that he hasn't played well. Yes, Ariza does get more assists Oubre. But Oubre shot way way better & on significantly higher usage as well (as a Wizard, Trevor has shot 45.7% on 2's & 31% on 3's -- that's awful, obviously). And Oubre also rebounded better than Trevor & blocked way more shots.

Still, although he hasn't played well, Trevor has improved us.

How? Because he plays way way mpg than Oubre did. & those minutes would have been played by far worse players than Ariza.

At first, those minutes were coming from time that, expect that he was injured, Otto Porter would have played. Taking minutes from Otto doesn't help the Wizards. Which is why we lost 5 of the first 6 games Trevor played. In fact our only win in that run was against the worst team in the league & it took us 3 overtimes to get it!

Yet, as I say, we are 7-4 since then. What happened?

It's simple: Austin Rivers is gone, & Markieff Morris has been out. Two really bad players.

Ariza has picked up some of Kieff's minutes (in addition to replacing Oubre's PT, I mean). Dekker has taken most of the rest, & he has been terrific. & Bryant's minutes have risen as well. Another good thing. Mahinmi's playing better as well.

But, above all, Satoransky -- who got very few minutes towards the start of the season -- is eating up Rivers' minutes & is now 4th in minutes on the team behind Wall, Green & Beal. He'll pass Wall a couple of games from now. He may pass Jeff Green as well, if the downward trend I mentioned above continues.

In short, aside from Beal & Porter, virtually every single one of Ernie's considered, hand-picked choices over the last decade is either gone, not playing much if at all (Mahinmi, Brown), or else injured -- & even Otto has been injured a bunch.

The R2 picks, cast-offs, afterthoughts & whats-his-names that somehow wound up here as Ernie made moves to bury his mistakes -- those are the guys (along with Beal & Otto, now that he's back) are the reason this team has gone 7-4 in our last 11 games.

In short, even when we get better, the big thing we learn from the fact is what an incompetent, conceited jackass is our long-tenured GM!!

Consider this:

Not a single Washington Wizard playing in our next game is either a guy we picked or traded for since the 2013 draft (almost 6 years ago) -- nor even a guy we got by trading one of those guys! -- with the sole exception of Trevor Ariza, who is an expiring end-of-career rental.

What an indictment!!

[NatP4]

Aaron White is coming, just you wait.

[Ruzious]

It does bother me that Ariza is a rental and without him - we don't compete for a playoff spot. So, while he's a consumate professional doing a great job - what's the benefit - considering he won't be here next season? If all this is just to get swept in the first round of the playoffs, what have we gained? Well, they are a lot more fun to watch - winning 7 of their last 10.

[Illmatic12]

In short, aside from Beal & Porter, virtually every single one of Ernie's considered, hand-picked choices over the last decade is either gone, not playing much if at all (Mahinmi, Brown), or else injured -- & even Otto has been injured a bunch.

I generally agree with you but, Grunfeld does deserve some credit for Thomas Bryant to be fair

[payitforward]

In short, aside from Beal & Porter, virtually every single one of Ernie's considered, hand-picked choices over the last decade is either gone, not playing much if at all (Mahinmi, Brown), or else injured -- & even Otto has been injured a bunch.

I generally agree with you but, Grunfeld does deserve some credit for Thomas Bryant to be fair

Here's how we got Thomas Bryant:

1.Rob Pelinka figured out that he wasn't going to be able to keep Thomas Bryant this year.
2. Pelinka knew that Bryant was a very talented prospect.
3. For that reason, Pelinka didn't want to see him in the Western Conference. In fact, he wanted him as far away as possible.
4. Pelinka called Ernie & said "I've got something for you. But, if you like it & follow up, you have to agree that you owe me one."
5. Ernie said, "OK."
6. Pelinka explained points 1-3 above to Ernie, then said: "I'm going to waive Bryant today at x pm. Be ready to pick him up immediately."
7. Ernie said, "Ok."

Note that in this sequence of events, Ernie was required to say "Ok" not just once but twice. So, you are right: Ernie gets some credit for Thomas Bryant.

In a similar way, but less demanding & more wasteful, Ernie also deserves credit for Sam Dekker. Sam went #18 in the 2015 draft. All it cost Ernie to acquire him was the 19th pick that year, 3 or 4 R2 picks, & paying for 2 FA mistakes for a while (Meeks & Smith).

Outstanding work, really -- just terrific.

[Wizardspride]

Aaron White is coming, just you wait.

[trast66]

I think its regression toward the mean. In the predict the record thread I went 42 wins and 7th seed. Will probably end up short of that, but its not like they were ever going to end up with 32 or 52 wins.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Perhaps this is a John Wall effect that even Kevin can believe in.

[80sballboy]

Let's face it, some of it is good fortune. Playing Milwaukee without Greek Freak, Detroit without Drummond, Knicks even without Kanter and a fortunate finish in London. But they showed me against Toronto that they can more just compete and had a nice display against the Warriors tonight. Ariza is absolutely playing lights-out. He started off poorly but dude is balling.

Sato, Bryant, Green, all solid. Otto finally healthy. Yes, Wiz are better because they are defending. Playing Sato more helps but addition of Ariza is the key.

[leswizards]

John wall has been awful this season, but is now injured. Austin rivers, markieff morris, Kelly oubre, and Jason Smith are all awful and are now gone or injured . That is a lot of unproductive minutes being replaced, and probably explains why the Wizards have gotten better.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I believe the title of this thread has changed from PIF's original leading question "Have we gotten better?"

Next, we should change what's been attributed to PIF to something like, "I'm so dang happy we've gotten better that I've started to change my mind about Ernie."

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

^ Or maybe just "Four more years! Four more years!"

[dckingsfan]

John wall has been awful this season, but is now injured. Austin rivers, markieff morris, Kelly oubre, and Jason Smith are all awful and are now gone or injured . That is a lot of unproductive minutes being replaced, and probably explains why the Wizards have gotten better.

I think you hit the nail on the head - unproductive minutes replaced with reasonably productive minutes.

[gtn130]

In short, aside from Beal & Porter, virtually every single one of Ernie's considered, hand-picked choices over the last decade is either gone, not playing much if at all (Mahinmi, Brown), or else injured -- & even Otto has been injured a bunch.

I generally agree with you but, Grunfeld does deserve some credit for Thomas Bryant to be fair

Here's how we got Thomas Bryant:

1.Rob Pelinka figured out that he wasn't going to be able to keep Thomas Bryant this year.
2. Pelinka knew that Bryant was a very talented prospect.
3. For that reason, Pelinka didn't want to see him in the Western Conference. In fact, he wanted him as far away as possible.
4. Pelinka called Ernie & said "I've got something for you. But, if you like it & follow up, you have to agree that you owe me one."
5. Ernie said, "OK."
6. Pelinka explained points 1-3 above to Ernie, then said: "I'm going to waive Bryant today at x pm. Be ready to pick him up immediately."
7. Ernie said, "Ok."

Note that in this sequence of events, Ernie was required to say "Ok" not just once but twice. So, you are right: Ernie gets some credit for Thomas Bryant.

In a similar way, but less demanding & more wasteful, Ernie also deserves credit for Sam Dekker. Sam went #18 in the 2015 draft. All it cost Ernie to acquire him was the 19th pick that year, 3 or 4 R2 picks, & paying for 2 FA mistakes for a while (Meeks & Smith).

Outstanding work, really -- just terrific.

I see no reason to get excited about Bryant since we can't actually resign him.

[NatP4]

I generally agree with you but, Grunfeld does deserve some credit for Thomas Bryant to be fair

Here's how we got Thomas Bryant:

1.Rob Pelinka figured out that he wasn't going to be able to keep Thomas Bryant this year.
2. Pelinka knew that Bryant was a very talented prospect.
3. For that reason, Pelinka didn't want to see him in the Western Conference. In fact, he wanted him as far away as possible.
4. Pelinka called Ernie & said "I've got something for you. But, if you like it & follow up, you have to agree that you owe me one."
5. Ernie said, "OK."
6. Pelinka explained points 1-3 above to Ernie, then said: "I'm going to waive Bryant today at x pm. Be ready to pick him up immediately."
7. Ernie said, "Ok."

Note that in this sequence of events, Ernie was required to say "Ok" not just once but twice. So, you are right: Ernie gets some credit for Thomas Bryant.

In a similar way, but less demanding & more wasteful, Ernie also deserves credit for Sam Dekker. Sam went #18 in the 2015 draft. All it cost Ernie to acquire him was the 19th pick that year, 3 or 4 R2 picks, & paying for 2 FA mistakes for a while (Meeks & Smith).

Outstanding work, really -- just terrific.

I see no reason to get excited about Bryant since we can't actually resign him.

We can re sign him though. With the cap increase, it shouldn’t be a problem. Assuming they continue to suppress his value

[Ruzious]

Here's how we got Thomas Bryant:

1.Rob Pelinka figured out that he wasn't going to be able to keep Thomas Bryant this year.
2. Pelinka knew that Bryant was a very talented prospect.
3. For that reason, Pelinka didn't want to see him in the Western Conference. In fact, he wanted him as far away as possible.
4. Pelinka called Ernie & said "I've got something for you. But, if you like it & follow up, you have to agree that you owe me one."
5. Ernie said, "OK."
6. Pelinka explained points 1-3 above to Ernie, then said: "I'm going to waive Bryant today at x pm. Be ready to pick him up immediately."
7. Ernie said, "Ok."

Note that in this sequence of events, Ernie was required to say "Ok" not just once but twice. So, you are right: Ernie gets some credit for Thomas Bryant.

In a similar way, but less demanding & more wasteful, Ernie also deserves credit for Sam Dekker. Sam went #18 in the 2015 draft. All it cost Ernie to acquire him was the 19th pick that year, 3 or 4 R2 picks, & paying for 2 FA mistakes for a while (Meeks & Smith).

Outstanding work, really -- just terrific.

I see no reason to get excited about Bryant since we can't actually resign him.

We can re sign him though. With the cap increase, it shouldn’t be a problem. Assuming they continue to suppress his value

They pretty much have to re-up both Bryant and Sato, and they are both RFA's to be, so the Wiz can and will match if someone else signs them.

Probably.

[dckingsfan]

I see no reason to get excited about Bryant since we can't actually resign him.

We can re sign him though. With the cap increase, it shouldn’t be a problem. Assuming they continue to suppress his value

They pretty much have to re-up both Bryant and Sato, and they are both RFA's to be, so the Wiz can and will match if someone else signs them.

Probably.

Two hypothetical yes/no questions:
1) If you had to trade Porter to keep Satoransky, Dekker, Bryant and Randle, do you do it?

2) If you had to trade Porter to keep Satoransky, Dekker, Bryant and Randle + another young talent and a pair of 2nd round picks, do you do it?

[NatP4]

Why would we ever face either of those scenarios? Keep Otto, Sato, and Bryant and trade the real problem, John walls contract. There’s no need to re sign Dekker even, play Troy Brown Jr. build around that Sato-Beal-Otto-Brown Jr-Bryant core and keep making draft picks.

[payitforward]

Not this:

...the addition of Ariza is the key.

This:

John wall ...Austin rivers, markieff morris, Kelly oubre, and Jason Smith are all ...gone or injured . That is a lot of unproductive minutes being replaced, and probably explains why the Wizards have gotten better.

(Although Wall was fairly productive the first 6-7 weeks of the season, then he slid in a hurry -- b/c of injury presumably. & it's true that Ariza played well vs. the Warriors -- a loss, however.)

[Dat2U]

We can re sign him though. With the cap increase, it shouldn’t be a problem. Assuming they continue to suppress his value

They pretty much have to re-up both Bryant and Sato, and they are both RFA's to be, so the Wiz can and will match if someone else signs them.

Probably.

Two hypothetical yes/no questions:
1) If you had to trade Porter to keep Satoransky, Dekker, Bryant and Randle, do you do it?

2) If you had to trade Porter to keep Satoransky, Dekker, Bryant and Randle + another young talent and a pair of 2nd round picks, do you do it?

I don't think were at the point where we should be making financial decisions based on keeping Dekker & Randle. Lots of guys overseas and in the NBDL can put up decent stretches of play.

Bryant shouldn't be expensive. There's a glut of guys capable of playing C now around the league as teams go smaller and smaller. The restricted status helps as well. I don't see many places that would pay him big money to be a starting C. The bigger issue will be Ernie. Lets hope he doesn't kioverpay in a crowded market for bigs.

If the Wizards are smart, they'd get Sato wrapped up now. He's someone that would have value if he hit the market IMO.

I think were fine for now without moving Porter.