RealGM

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:17 pm**

2016/17 was the high point of this iteration of the Wizards. They won 49 games, made it to game 7 of the 2nd round, and actually looked like a legitimately good team. The primary reason for the success that season was that Wall and Beal each had career best years. Wall had his most efficient year ever, and Beal was a sniper from deep, launching the most 3PA's ever, with his 2nd best percentage ever (.404).

Per 36 minutes, their numbers looked like this:

Out of curiosity, I compared their combined numbers to what Sato and Beal have done since Wall left the lineup just after Christmas. These are also per-36 numbers over the next 31 games:

The Sato/Beal combo is BETTER!

The Wall+Beal combo scores 7.1 more points per 36, but they do so at a marginal TS% of just .476. If that's what it takes to get those extra points, it's not helping. Furthermore, the Sato+Beal combo win the battle of possessions big time by getting 3.5 more rebounds and turning the ball over one less time.

Defensively, it's close, with the Sato+Beal combo probably having a small edge. John played pretty good D that year, but he was always up and down, with great defensive plays intermixed with laziness fighting around screens. I don't think he was any better than current Sato, who gives better sustained effort on every possession, but is often overmatched when he switches onto bigs. And current Beal is probably a bit better defensively than 2016 Beal.

Obviously, the primary reason the Sato+Beal combo is better is because Beal has taken it to a new level over the 2nd half of this season. It might well be the case that if you take current Beal and combine him with a healthy Wall, they would be better than Sato+Beal. But maybe not. Would Beal ever have reached this new plateau if he was alongside Wall? I seriously doubt it. Could he sustain if Wall came back and joined him? I don't know. Wall uses up a lot of possessions inefficiently. And he's not an off the ball threat when Beal has the ball.

Conclusion: Lock Sato up long term and try and trade Wall as soon as feasible.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:31 pm**

nate33 wrote:The Sato/Beal combo is BETTER!
<snip>
Conclusion: Lock Sato up long term and try and trade Wall as soon as feasible.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:36 pm**

This is fine for regular season analysis.

But in the playoffs so far, Wall vs Sato is like night and day.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:06 pm**

This analysis is meaningless without including the postseason.

You think the Celtics would rather have Terry Rozier over Kyrie Irving in the playoffs ? Because you can pull up regular season stats that make it look like the team is better with Rozier starting instead of Irving.

I also think we never got to see what Wall could have done with more mobile/floor spacing bigs like Portis, Bryant, Parker as opposed to Gortat and Kieff. Washington's offense has basically gone nuclear since the Portis+Jabari trade .. did Wall ever play with a big man who can space the floor like BP?

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:51 pm**

The disparity in points and assists between Wall and Sato tells me just about everything I need to know--and already knew. In the absence of Wallstar, Beal is having to work too freaking hard (and play too many minutes) to carry this team and make plays for himself and teammates, especially at crunch time. That's not a good thing in the long run.

But I agree. Lock Sato up...and find a good playmaker and someone who's capable of creating his own shot to back Sato up at PG. Brown Jr. has the potential to become that guy just don't know if he's ready for that role next season.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:05 pm**

Illmatic12 wrote:This analysis is meaningless without including the postseason.

You think the Celtics would rather have Terry Rozier over Kyrie Irving in the playoffs ? Because you can pull up regular season stats that make it look like the team is better with Rozier starting instead of Irving.

I also think we never got to see what Wall could have done with more mobile/floor spacing bigs like Portis, Bryant, Parker as opposed to Gortat and Kieff. Washington's offense has basically gone nuclear since the Portis+Jabari trade .. did Wall ever play with a big man who can space the floor like BP?

Not sure the Rozier/Irving comp works. As good as Rozier was in the playoffs last season, Irving was significantly better.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:22 pm**

DCZards wrote:The disparity in points and assists between Wall and Sato tells me just about everything I need to know--and already knew. In the absence of Wallstar, Beal is having to work too freaking hard (and play too many minutes) to carry this team and make plays for himself and teammates, especially at crunch time. That's not a good thing in the long run.

Not sure how you make this conclusion. Sato takes less low efficiency shots than Wall, shifting more of the scoring load to the significantly more efficient Beal. Isn't this a good thing? It's not that Beal is "working too hard". It's that he is getting more shots while on the floor. As long as those shots are high efficiency shots, that's exactly what we want.

I also think Sato's off-the-ball abilities subtly help Beal get better looks, perhaps nearly as much as Wall's obvious drive-and-kick abilities. Defenders have to be aware of Sato's hard backdoor cuts and his 42% 3P%, which prevents them from loading up on Beal.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:29 pm**

Dat2U wrote:This is fine for regular season analysis.

But in the playoffs so far, Wall vs Sato is like night and day.

It would have been nice to see what Sato could actually do in the playoffs if he was given a regular role and a little confidence from the coach, but Brooks kept trying to replace him with journeyman walk-ons like Ty Lawson and Brandon Jennings. But it is true that in the limited playoff data we do have for Sato, his numbers are not good.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:28 pm**

nate33 wrote:
DCZards wrote:The disparity in points and assists between Wall and Sato tells me just about everything I need to know--and already knew. In the absence of Wallstar, Beal is having to work too freaking hard (and play too many minutes) to carry this team and make plays for himself and teammates, especially at crunch time. That's not a good thing in the long run.

Not sure how you make this conclusion. Sato takes less low efficiency shots than Wall, shifting more of the scoring load to the significantly more efficient Beal. Isn't this a good thing? It's not that Beal is "working too hard". It's that he is getting more shots while on the floor. As long as those shots are high efficiency shots, that's exactly what we want.

I also think Sato's off-the-ball abilities subtly help Beal get better looks, perhaps nearly as much as Wall's obvious drive-and-kick abilities. Defenders have to be aware of Sato's hard backdoor cuts and his 42% 3P%, which prevents them from loading up on Beal.

As you say, Wall’s absence is “shifting more of the scoring load to the significantly more efficient Beal.” The key word is “load." So, yes, Beal is scoring more, and getting more assists and rebounds than ever before. But he’s also working much harder and playing more minutes than ever before. And that’s a problem, imo.

Yeah, Beal is young. But he’s also human…and the workload he’s shouldering this year has to take its toll.

I’d argue that Beal’s 34.5% 3 pt shooting this season (the lowest of his career) is in part the result of his tired legs. Beal’s % was a career high 40% when he shared the court with Wall in 2016-17.

Sato takes less than three 3pters a game and makes an average of one 3pter per game. So I doubt that teams are paying less attention to Beal because they’re worried about Sato’s 3pt shooting...or his 12pts per game.

When Wall was healthy I thought the Zards had TWO players—Wall and Beal—who could take over when the game was on the line. I don’t feel that way now. Do you?

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:58 pm**

Wall is definitely going to have to work on his off-ball play. They can't go back to being a completely Wall-controlled offense. This offense is now built around Beal, so the ball is going to run through Beal more than it was in the old Wall/Beal era. It's up to Wall to adjust to that. He should be watching what Sato does OFF THE BALL - which is not just standing around doing nothing to help his teammates. This is no longer Wall's team, and he's gotta be more versatile if he's going to help the team achieve anything. He's going to be part of Beal's supporting cast - yeah, I said it.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:25 pm**

Ruzious wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:This analysis is meaningless without including the postseason.

You think the Celtics would rather have Terry Rozier over Kyrie Irving in the playoffs ? Because you can pull up regular season stats that make it look like the team is better with Rozier starting instead of Irving.

I also think we never got to see what Wall could have done with more mobile/floor spacing bigs like Portis, Bryant, Parker as opposed to Gortat and Kieff. Washington's offense has basically gone nuclear since the Portis+Jabari trade .. did Wall ever play with a big man who can space the floor like BP?

Not sure the Rozier/Irving comp works. As good as Rozier was in the playoffs last season, Irving was significantly better.

Irving didn't play in the playoffs last season .

For comparison, why not post Satoransky's playoff stats vs Wall's.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:11 pm**

Illmatic12 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:This analysis is meaningless without including the postseason.

You think the Celtics would rather have Terry Rozier over Kyrie Irving in the playoffs ? Because you can pull up regular season stats that make it look like the team is better with Rozier starting instead of Irving.

I also think we never got to see what Wall could have done with more mobile/floor spacing bigs like Portis, Bryant, Parker as opposed to Gortat and Kieff. Washington's offense has basically gone nuclear since the Portis+Jabari trade .. did Wall ever play with a big man who can space the floor like BP?

Not sure the Rozier/Irving comp works. As good as Rozier was in the playoffs last season, Irving was significantly better.

Irving didn't play in the playoffs last season .

For comparison, why not post Satoransky's playoff stats vs Wall's.

Correct - my bad. Irving's lifetime playoff stats are significantly better than Roziers - and in any setting - Irving's better, or am I still missing something?

No doubt Sato's playoff stats were putrid, but the situation he was put in made no sense.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:30 pm**

Come on - this is Sato's 3rd year in the league and he's played 96 minutes in playoffs. His first year in the league was a bit rough and last year for whatever reason Ernie signed Lawson and of course Brooks put him immediately in the rotation. Sato's stats last year in playoffs were awful but again, 60 minutes in 6 games so I wouldn't pay too much attention to that.

I agree with this:

Ruzious wrote:Wall is definitely going to have to work on his off-ball play. They can't go back to being a completely Wall-controlled offense. This offense is now built around Beal, so the ball is going to run through Beal more than it was in the old Wall/Beal era. It's up to Wall to adjust to that. He should be watching what Sato does OFF THE BALL - which is not just standing around doing nothing to help his teammates. This is no longer Wall's team, and he's gotta be more versatile if he's going to help the team achieve anything. He's going to be part of Beal's supporting cast - yeah, I said it.

Wall was great and used to be my favorite player but after that career year he's been mostly awful to watch. Let's pray he recovers well and changes his habits.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:01 pm**

Since Wall is basically done and untradeable next season, I think, for next season, my question is what is Sato+Beal+Brown going to look like. I am quite impressed with Brown and think he will take a big jump next year making for a very nice guard trio.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:06 pm**

Sato+Beal+Brown is a nasty backcourt. If only they keep Otto and Oubre. Sigh. Picture this if they did the right thing:

Sato Ball
Beal Brown jr
Oubre Hunter
Porter Dekker
Bryant Clarke

And cap space without wall

Depressing.

Posted: **Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:15 pm**

↑↑↑↑ Looking forward

Sato Brown
Beal Brown
?? ??
?? Decker
Bryant Mahimni

Howard opts out

That team is good enough for 10th... So, if we hit our picks in '19 & '20??

Posted: **Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:19 pm**

There are a couple things to remember. Beal/Wall had a dreadful start to the season,particularly Wall who was adapting to life with Brooks and Beal was injured. Keef Morris played significantly better later in the season as well. IRRC, this is the season where Wall 's defense became an issue particularly in the 2nd half of the season after the all star break.

The other thing to calculate is where Beal/Wall rank relative to their competition. I think spacing is even better in 2019 than 2017. That being said, I think Wall is not as good because he hasn't been improving as significantly as his competition. For instance, I would have thought that Wall would have surpassed Lowry at this stage of his career. Although injuries have played a role.

Posted: **Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:47 am**

NatP4 wrote:Sato+Beal+Brown is a nasty backcourt. If only they keep Otto and Oubre. Sigh. Picture this if they did the right thing:

Sato Ball
Beal Brown jr
Oubre Hunter
Porter Dekker
Bryant Clarke

And cap space without wall

Depressing.

Eh as much as we wanted it to work Sato/Beal/Oubre/Porter simply never impressed. Wacky rotations by Brooks certainly didn't help matters, but guys got a chance to audition for that to be the new core more or less and it was just meh. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer that core over what we have now (I would), but its a first round exit regardless.

I'm not sure what the future holds at this point, but everybody eats was mediocre at the end of the day, and the Chicago Beals look very similar. Everyone needs to pray Wall looks good--either to keep him or trade him. And for more lottery balls.

Posted: **Fri Mar 15, 2019 2:12 am**

DCZards wrote:
nate33 wrote:
DCZards wrote:The disparity in points and assists between Wall and Sato tells me just about everything I need to know--and already knew. In the absence of Wallstar, Beal is having to work too freaking hard (and play too many minutes) to carry this team and make plays for himself and teammates, especially at crunch time. That's not a good thing in the long run.

Not sure how you make this conclusion. Sato takes less low efficiency shots than Wall, shifting more of the scoring load to the significantly more efficient Beal. Isn't this a good thing? It's not that Beal is "working too hard". It's that he is getting more shots while on the floor. As long as those shots are high efficiency shots, that's exactly what we want.

I also think Sato's off-the-ball abilities subtly help Beal get better looks, perhaps nearly as much as Wall's obvious drive-and-kick abilities. Defenders have to be aware of Sato's hard backdoor cuts and his 42% 3P%, which prevents them from loading up on Beal.

As you say, Wall’s absence is “shifting more of the scoring load to the significantly more efficient Beal.” The key word is “load." So, yes, Beal is scoring more, and getting more assists and rebounds than ever before. But he’s also working much harder and playing more minutes than ever before. And that’s a problem, imo.

Yeah, Beal is young. But he’s also human…and the workload he’s shouldering this year has to take its toll.

I’d argue that Beal’s 34.5% 3 pt shooting this season (the lowest of his career) is in part the result of his tired legs. Beal’s % was a career high 40% when he shared the court with Wall in 2016-17.

Sato takes less than three 3pters a game and makes an average of one 3pter per game. So I doubt that teams are paying less attention to Beal because they’re worried about Sato’s 3pt shooting...or his 12pts per game.

When Wall was healthy I thought the Zards had TWO players—Wall and Beal—who could take over when the game was on the line. I don’t feel that way now. Do you?

That's because the problem with Beal is that he's playing nearly the top number of minutes in the league . . . in a pretty meaningless season. Not that he's shooting more while he's playing. IS Sato better than Wall? Talentwise, it's not that close and I'm both a Sato and an efficiency fan. But Wall has been disgruntled for a few years since Beal (then Porter) got paid more and was playing like it before his injury. Maybe it wasn't that, maybe he was injured already or something but it looked like he didn't have his heart in it defensively. And then there's that contract. Unfortunately, that combination is nasty.

Posted: **Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:37 pm**

Dark Faze wrote:Eh as much as we wanted it to work Sato/Beal/Oubre/Porter simply never impressed. Wacky rotations by Brooks certainly didn't help matters, but guys got a chance to audition for that to be the new core more or less and it was just meh. I'm not saying I wouldn't prefer that core over what we have now (I would), but its a first round exit regardless.

I'm not sure what the future holds at this point, but everybody eats was mediocre at the end of the day, and the Chicago Beals look very similar. Everyone needs to pray Wall looks good--either to keep him or trade him. And for more lottery balls.

Everybody eats with this new and improved version of Beal, and with Bryant playing well might be pretty good though - maybe a few games above .500. It's still only a 5th seed in the East, but that's all that the Wall-led teams were.

That said, I'm not lamenting the Porter trade like NatP4 does. I like Parker, or at least the version of Parker we've seen these last 14 games in a Wizards uniform.

RealGM

Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal in 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal in 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17

Re: Sato+Beal 2018/19 versus Wall+Beal 2016/17