GT #70 Grizzlies @ Wizards 7:00 PM

Post #21 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:22 am

Damn. Green with the dagger. Wizards will win. #10 pick, here we come

doclinkin · Post #22 » by **doclinkin** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:39 am

Terrible win but that was fun to watch. The no defense Wiz can score in so many ways and it was cool to see Bryant and Troy Brown have positive effect when they were out there. Bryant making smart plays and turning up the defense when Brooks was forced to sit Portis since the Grizz went big.

And for serious though: Brad REAL. Kid has been taking this team over and playing with guts and smarts. Have to say its fun to watch us compete even if it sucks on ping pong ball changes. That said. I forget the year but I recall we moved up in the lotto one year when we were bitching about competing for the 9th seed. SO you never know. Just so long as we don't mess around and make the playoffs. I want at least a _chance_ to reach Zion.

ozthegap · Post #23 » by **ozthegap** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:47 am

doclinkin wrote:Terrible win but that was fun to watch. The no defense Wiz can score in so many ways and it was cool to see Bryant and Troy Brown have positive effect when they were out there. Bryant making smart plays and turning up the defense when Brooks was forced to sit Portis since the Grizz went big.

And for serious though: Brad REAL. Kid has been taking this team over and playing with guts and smarts. Have to say its fun to watch us compete even if it sucks on ping pong ball changes. That said. I forget the year but I recall we moved up in teh lotto one year when we were bitching about competing for the 9th seed. SO you never know. Just so long as we don't mess around and make the playoffs. I want at least a _chance_ to reach Zion.

didn't they change the rules eat year so that can't happen anymore? don't remember the change exactly

Post #24 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:54 am

doclinkin wrote:Terrible win but that was fun to watch. The no defense Wiz can score in so many ways and it was cool to see Bryant and Troy Brown have positive effect when they were out there. Bryant making smart plays and turning up the defense when Brooks was forced to sit Portis since the Grizz went big.

And for serious though: Brad REAL. Kid has been taking this team over and playing with guts and smarts. Have to say its fun to watch us compete even if it sucks on ping pong ball changes. That said. I forget the year but I recall we moved up in teh lotto one year when we were bitching about competing for the 9th seed. SO you never know. Just so long as we don't mess around and make the playoffs. I want at least a _chance_ to reach Zion.

I think that was the Otto Porter draft.

That season, their record was 19-31 a week into March, and everyone wanted to tank. I think the team had the 3rd worst record in the league at that point. But the Wizards went on a futile 10-6 run in March to take them out of contention for a decent pick. Finally, they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in early April and they wisely dropped the last 6 games. They finished with the 8th worst record but moved up to 3rd in the lottery. Karma rewarded them for not tanking until they were eliminated.

80sballboy · Post #25 » by **80sballboy** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:58 am

Ok, so here's the schedule.
Jazz at home (L)
Bulls on road (W)
Nuggets at home (L)
Heat at home (W/L)
Lakers on the road (Tank W)
Suns on the road the night after (Probable W)
Jazz on the road (L)
Nuggets on the road (L)
Bulls at home (W)
Spurs at home (L)
Knicks on the road (W)
Celtics at home (depends on if Boston needs it, probable L unless they rest everybody)
I'm thinking around 5-7, or at best 7-7. Probably 9-10th pick. No playoffs. We need more Ls to Bulls and we need that Heat loss at home.

Problem I see with the tank is that too many guys are on one-year deals so they are playing hard every night. At least on offense. Defense is just there.

Illmatic12 · Post #26 » by **Illmatic12** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:58 am

The Pelicans are freaking useless!! My god

They had a 3 point lead with mere seconds on the clock, get a 5 sec violation then give up a prayer 3 to Josh Jackson, and cap it off by losing on a technical foul they earned from attempting to call a TO they didn't have.

Washington's chances at a top 4 pick are not trending in the right direction.

80sballboy · Post #27 » by **80sballboy** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:00 am

Illmatic12 wrote:The Pelicans are freaking useless!! My god

They had a 3 point lead with mere seconds on the clock, get a 5 sec violation then give up a prayer 3 to Josh Jackson, and cap it off by losing on a technical foul they earned from attempting to call a TO they didn't have.

Washington's chances at a top 4 pick are not trending in the right direction.

No chance. Too many teams that are actually tanking. While we are half-assing our tank, like we do with everything.

payitforward · Post #28 » by **payitforward** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:46 am

Sheesh.... How about some plaudits for the absolutely incredible night Bradley Beal just had!! Wow....

&, for the 100th time, how much evidence do you need to understand & accept that there is no difference -- period; none!! -- between picking #6 & picking #10. Danm...!

doclinkin · Post #29 » by **doclinkin** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:54 am

ozthegap wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Terrible win but that was fun to watch. The no defense Wiz can score in so many ways and it was cool to see Bryant and Troy Brown have positive effect when they were out there. Bryant making smart plays and turning up the defense when Brooks was forced to sit Portis since the Grizz went big.

And for serious though: Brad REAL. Kid has been taking this team over and playing with guts and smarts. Have to say its fun to watch us compete even if it sucks on ping pong ball changes. That said. I forget the year but I recall we moved up in teh lotto one year when we were bitching about competing for the 9th seed. SO you never know. Just so long as we don't mess around and make the playoffs. I want at least a _chance_ to reach Zion.

didn't they change the rules eat year so that can't happen anymore? don't remember the change exactly

The rules change was this year. It used to be the crappiest team had a significantly stronger chance at the top pick. And teams could only jump into the top 3. This year the lotto is for the top 4 spots, and the weighting of the chances is more flat. But that means unless you jump into the top 4 you could get bumped 4 spaces down as other teams pass you and displace you out of your rightful spot in the order of suck. This year it wouldn't matter all that much since there are a number of interesting prospects but it doesn't seem like a powerful disparity of talent in the lotto and outside of it. EXCEPT that Zion looks like he is worth shaving every % in odds in your favor in order to land him.

dangermouse · Post #30 » by **dangermouse** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 10:09 am

Terrible win. Beal was amazing again though. He is becoming fearless, and that is helping him become clutch. We're seeing the next evolution of Beal.

Also wouldnt mind getting another look at Jabari next year. Hopefully if we use the team option on him he'll be willing to come back on a 1+1 for ~6m to 7m a year.

queridiculo · Post #31 » by **queridiculo** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:30 am

Just wanted to reiterate what a punk bitch Valenciunas is.

Gooner · Post #32 » by **Gooner** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:30 am

Wizards could end up making the playoffs, their schedule is favourable.

queridiculo · Post #33 » by **queridiculo** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:32 am

Gooner wrote:Wizards could end up making the playoffs, their schedule is favourable.

That would be the absolute worst that could happen.

Gooner · Post #34 » by **Gooner** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:35 am

queridiculo wrote:
Gooner wrote:Wizards could end up making the playoffs, their schedule is favourable.

That would be the absolute worst that could happen.

I understand that, but it's possible. Beal is good enough to make it happen. Grunfeld would be happy with that, no doubt.

long suffrin' boulez fan · Post #35 » by **long suffrin' boulez fan** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:06 pm

On a glide path to 9th in the east. Sheesh.

Post #36 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:24 pm

Gooner wrote:Wizards could end up making the playoffs, their schedule is favourable.

Nah. Not when Charlotte has the tiebreaker.

Effectively, Charlotte and Miami are both 4 games ahead of us in the loss column. Perhaps one of them collapses down the stretch, but the odds that both lose 4 more times than the Wizards lose over the next 14 games are practically zero.

Post #37 » by **nate33** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:26 pm

payitforward wrote:Sheesh.... How about some plaudits for the absolutely incredible night Bradley Beal just had!! Wow....

&, for the 100th time, how much evidence do you need to understand & accept that there is no difference -- period; none!! -- between picking #6 & picking #10. Danm...!

I'm not too worried about the difference between 6th and 10th. The part that bugs me is the difference between a 37.2% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick.

Illmatic12 · Post #38 » by **Illmatic12** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:40 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:Sheesh.... How about some plaudits for the absolutely incredible night Bradley Beal just had!! Wow....

&, for the 100th time, how much evidence do you need to understand & accept that there is no difference -- period; none!! -- between picking #6 & picking #10. Danm...!

I'm not too worried about the difference between 6th and 10th. The part that bugs me is the difference between a 37.2% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick.

It's exactly this Nate. Right now we have a 20% chance at a top 3 pick.
If we "drop" one more spot below the Lakers, that plummets to 13.9%
If we move up to #6 ahead of Memphis, that goes up to a 37.2% chance.
And even more importantly, being in the 6-8 zone decreases your chances of randomly being moved back to 10-15 range which is VERY possible.

Now it's still possible that the lottery gods may smile on us from wherever we are slotted, but you can't argue against probability. The Wizards need the 6th-8th worst record to maximize their chances of hitting on this draft. I've dug deep into this draft class and if Culver, Clarke, Deandre Hunter are off the board by our pick it will not be good.

payitforward · Post #39 » by **payitforward** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:58 pm

nate33 wrote:
doclinkin wrote:...I forget the year but I recall we moved up in teh lotto one year when we were bitching about competing for the 9th seed....

I think that was the Otto Porter draft. ... finished with the 8th worst record but moved up to 3rd in the lottery. Karma rewarded them for not tanking until they were eliminated.

(What karma giveth, Ernie taketh away.) That was 2013, yes. & we also moved up from #8 in 2010.

payitforward · Post #40 » by **payitforward** » Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:15 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...there is no difference -- period; none!! -- between picking #6 & picking #10. Danm...!

...The part that bugs me is the difference between a 37.2% chance at a top 4 pick, and a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick.

It's exactly this Nate. Right now we have a 20% chance at a top 3 pick.
...The Wizards need the 6th-8th worst record to maximize their chances of hitting on this draft. I've dug deep into this draft class and if Culver, Clarke, Deandre Hunter are off the board by our pick it will not be good.

Wow. It really is amazing: mere facts -- repeated facts demonstrated year after year after year -- do not suffice for people to get it. GMs don't know -- & neither do you, Illmatic -- who will be better between the guy picked 6th & the guy picked 10th in any draft. They haven't known in the past; they don't know now; they never will be able to know.

By definition, the 6th best player is better than the 10th best player. Duh. It's just not possible to list players in the draft in order of how good they will be.

Picks 1-3, historically, do show a statistically meaningful correlation to results in the league. But, even that doesn't give you any certainty that they will be the 3 best players out of their draft.

The only way having the 6th pick is at least likely to be better than having the 10th pick is that you can trade the 6th pick for the 10th pick & another pick. In a game that approaches randomness, having 2 shots helps. The reason is obvious.

I don't doubt, Illmatic, that you've "dug deep into this draft class." We all try to do that as best we can. But it is absolutely not the case that the Wizards "need the 6th-8th worst record to maximize their chances of hitting..." (unless you mean they should use that pick position to trade down -- which is the opposite of what you mean).