Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

[80sballboy]

Kevin Pelton from ESPN on most polarizing draft picks

Kevin Pelton


While attending the combine for the first time, I ended up trading notes on my stats-based draft projections with some of the scouts, analytics personnel and other decision-makers in attendance. Let's take a look at some of the names likely to be taken in the first round who generated the most intrigue or most polarizing responses.


Jaxson Hayes | C | Texas

Per Basketball-Reference.com, only Zion Williamson had a better box plus-minus rating (BPM) among freshmen who played at least 500 minutes last season. So you might be surprised to learn that Hayes ranks a distant 47th in my stats-only projections.

Part of the disconnect stems from the way my model values centers, given their high replacement level in the NBA. Hayes looks like an ideal dive man, having shot 73 percent from the field and blocked more than 10 percent of opposing 2-point attempts at Texas. But teams can typically find such players late in the draft. Witness Thomas Bryant, the second-most similar prospect to Hayes at the same age in my database, who was taken 42nd overall in 2017 by the Los Angeles Lakers and claimed off waivers by the Washington Wizards last summer before emerging as a starter.


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Hayes' poor rebounding also figures to make him a polarizing prospect. Just four drafted players listed at center in my database had worse rebounding percentages as a freshman than Hayes' 12.5 percent mark: Meyers Leonard (8.9 percent), Fab Melo (11.1 percent), Mike Muscala (11.8 percent) and Festus Ezeli (11.9 percent).

Talen Horton-Tucker | F | Iowa State

Horton-Tucker measured 6-foot-2½ barefoot at the draft combine with a wingspan greater than 7-foot-1, and his unorthodox frame also produces atypical stats. Horton-Tucker skeptics will point to his inefficiency as a scorer. He shot a middling 48 percent on 2s and 31 percent on 3s during his lone season in Ames, producing a .488 true shooting percentage that was the worst of any NCAA player among our top 100 prospects.

Nonetheless, Horton-Tucker ranks 11th overall in my stats-only projections. That's thanks largely to his age: Horton-Tucker turned 18 during his freshman season, making him the youngest player in the top 100. Additionally, because my model regresses outlier performance to the mean, Horton-Tucker's shooting percentages don't hurt him as much as they would without this adjustment.

If Horton-Tucker can score with even decent efficiency, his ability to create his own shot -- he posted a usage rate north of 26 percent on a Cyclones team featuring several upperclassmen with NBA potential -- and rack up both steals and blocks could make him a valuable contributor.

Cam Reddish | G/F | Duke

Nobody in this year's draft inspires stronger takes than Reddish, who had a disappointing freshman campaign as the third option on a Blue Devils team featuring three surefire lottery picks. Despite the talent around him, Reddish's true shooting percentage (.499) was only slightly better than Horton-Tucker's. He made worse than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts and barely 33 percent from 3-point range.

The inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL (collected by ESPN Stats & Information's Neil Johnson) boosts Reddish in my projections. Among 2018-19 freshmen in the top 100, only Oregon's Bol Bol rated better than Reddish during 2017 EYBL play between their junior and senior years of high school. Reddish wasn't all that much more efficient against EYBL competition, but he was responsible for a larger share of his team's offense and more effective as a distributor -- even after considering the change in level of play. That suggests some of Reddish's skills might have been hidden because of Duke's depth.

Ultimately, Reddish's NBA potential might hinge on his ability to consistently make 3-pointers. That hasn't happened at any level of competition. However, Reddish's accuracy at the free throw line (77 percent as a freshman) suggests untapped potential as a shooter. I've found that free throw shooting in college is slightly more predictive of NBA 3-point accuracy than 3-point percentage in college.

Matisse Thybulle | G/F | Washington

Thybulle's statistical appeal as a prospect is obvious: He has the highest projected steal rate of any player in this year's draft, and he's the first in my database projected for both a steal rate of better than 3 per 100 plays and blocks on better than 2 percent of opponent 2-point attempts. The question mark, then, is how well the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year will translate that performance in the 2-3 zone defense coach Mike Hopkins brought to UW from Syracuse after a long tenure on Jim Boeheim's coaching staff.


There's a track record of Boeheim's players struggling in the NBA. Of the 18 Syracuse draft picks in my database, just four -- Carmelo Anthony, Jerami Grant, Fab Melo (because he was projected for negative wins) and Hakim Warrick -- have beaten their stats-only projection in my model. For comparison's sake, about 45 percent of all drafted college players beat their projection, which means you'd expect twice as many Boeheim players to have done so. (Thybulle and fellow prospect Jaylen Nowell would be the first Hopkins draft picks, so he doesn't yet have a track record as a head coach.)

It's possible to trace this in part to the way Boeheim's trademark zone inflates his players' steal rates. Weighted by minutes played, Syracuse prospects were projected for 1.9 steals per 100 plays as rookies but actually averaged just 1.7, and six of the eight who played at least 500 minutes as rookies fell short of their projected steal rates.

Of course, it's also worth noting that Thybulle could underperform his projection by the same amount and still have the highest projected steal rate in this year's top 100. There's also no tendency for Syracuse players to underperform their block projections, though no defender at the top of Boeheim's 2-3 zones has blocked shots as prolifically as Thybulle.

Grant Williams | PF | Tennessee

Given that he measured in at less than 6-foot-6 barefoot at the combine, Williams feels like a classic case of production vs. measurables. But just how productive Williams was depends on your metric of choice. He was sixth among all NCAA players in BPM last season (minimum 500 minutes). Nonetheless, Williams ranks a middling 44th in my stats-only projections.

Williams' sophomore season holds his projection back considerably. That sounds funny to say about a season during which he was named SEC Player of the Year. It's true, though, that Williams wasn't nearly as efficient. His .544 true shooting percentage made him something of a volume scorer and was a far cry from Williams' .646 mark last season as a junior.

Additionally, Williams isn't the type of rebounder most undersized NBA prospects are. He pulled down just 13 percent of available defensive rebounds as a freshman and 15 percent as a sophomore before improving to 17 percent last season. Tennessee remained a below-average defensive rebounding team, as was the case throughout Williams' three seasons in Knoxville.

There's plenty to like about Williams, an excellent passer for a big with college 3-point range and the ability to protect his rim despite his small stature. Still, he's not quite in the same vein as other undersized big men who have proved scouts wrong.

[Illuminaire]

If I had to compare him to someone, it'd be Jordan Clarkson.

He's probably a better shooter than Clarkson, and possibly a better defender. I expect White to have a better overall career as a useful player than Clarkson.

I agree on principle, though. He's the wrong kind of combo guard. His best case is a decent quality 3rd guard... not exactly what I'd aim for with a top-10 pick.

[trast66]

According to this chart, we would have been able to trade our #6 (Vesely) in 2011 for the #15 (Kawhi), #30 (Butler), #55 (E'Twaun Moore), #60 (IT) & the #35 the following year (Draymond) (we'd need a 1 pt. discount for that last pick being a year away).

Sounds pretty fair to me!

yep, I proposed that exact trade at the time!

[youngWizzy]

If I had to compare him to someone, it'd be Jordan Clarkson.

He's probably a better shooter than Clarkson, and possibly a better defender. I expect White to have a better overall career as a useful player than Clarkson.

I agree on principle, though. He's the wrong kind of combo guard. His best case is a decent quality 3rd guard... not exactly what I'd aim for with a top-10 pick.

Honestly White reminds me more of Brandon Knight and I doubt hes gonna become a good role player. Their stats are very similar coming out of college.

[Shoe]

If the team isn't going to do something interesting like Doumbouya/Samanic/Goga

Just take one of the Gonzaga guys. Clarke can be a 20 ppg scorer, Hachimura can be Japanese Jeff Green. NO to another J Hayes in the top 10, no to UNC players.

[Ruzious]

Keldon Johnson has a nice shooting stroke.

Yup, and he's got the proverbial NBA body for a 2 - at 6'6 216, 6'9 wingspan. Very solid prospect. I'd actually take him over his teammate, Tyler Herro - who Dat really likes - because Johnson can be a more versatile matchup - particularly on defense. Herro's advantage is that he's more of an alpha type personality on the court. Hopefully Johnson develops more confidence and becomes a bit more aggressive and assertive. If the Wiz trade with Boston, he could be a player to target with the 20th pick.

I'm betting on P.J. Washington to turn out to be the best of the trio of Kentucky Wildcats who are expected to be first round picks. PJ is almost certain to be the first one of the three drafted. Most mocks I've seen have him going in the 12-18 range.

PJ is 2 inches taller than Johnson and has a 7.2 wingspan. He also dramatically improved his 3pt shooting last season.

I really liked the way Washington returned from missing the first couple of NCAA tournament games with an injury to play with aggressiveness and confidence...scoring 28 pts and pulling down 13 rebs in the loss to Auburn.

I think it's a 3-way toss-up, tbh, as to which of the 3 goes first. It might come down to team needs. PJ's NBA position is probably PF, so he better be taller and longer than Keldon. Good tough player.

[Ruzious]

According to this chart, we would have been able to trade our #6 (Vesely) in 2011 for the #15 (Kawhi), #30 (Butler), #55 (E'Twaun Moore), #60 (IT) & the #35 the following year (Draymond) (we'd need a 1 pt. discount for that last pick being a year away).

Sounds pretty fair to me!

yep, I proposed that exact trade at the time!

Yup, and I +1'd you. I recall it vividly.

[Ruzious]

Kevin Pelton from ESPN on most polarizing draft picks

Kevin Pelton


While attending the combine for the first time, I ended up trading notes on my stats-based draft projections with some of the scouts, analytics personnel and other decision-makers in attendance. Let's take a look at some of the names likely to be taken in the first round who generated the most intrigue or most polarizing responses.


Talen Horton-Tucker | F | Iowa State

Horton-Tucker measured 6-foot-2½ barefoot at the draft combine with a wingspan greater than 7-foot-1, and his unorthodox frame also produces atypical stats. Horton-Tucker skeptics will point to his inefficiency as a scorer. He shot a middling 48 percent on 2s and 31 percent on 3s during his lone season in Ames, producing a .488 true shooting percentage that was the worst of any NCAA player among our top 100 prospects.

Nonetheless, Horton-Tucker ranks 11th overall in my stats-only projections. That's thanks largely to his age: Horton-Tucker turned 18 during his freshman season, making him the youngest player in the top 100. Additionally, because my model regresses outlier performance to the mean, Horton-Tucker's shooting percentages don't hurt him as much as they would without this adjustment.

If Horton-Tucker can score with even decent efficiency, his ability to create his own shot -- he posted a usage rate north of 26 percent on a Cyclones team featuring several upperclassmen with NBA potential -- and rack up both steals and blocks could make him a valuable contributor.

Pelton's stuff is always interesting - even when I disagree with him. He called it right on Thomas Bryant when nobody else that I know of did. Horton-Tucker is one of the most oddly shaped players to come around - at 6'4 235 with a 7'1 wingspan. Bad shooting stats, but everything else is good. If he can learn to shoot... shoot, I think he can play in the NBA as a positionless energy player. He and Thybulle... if I'm a GM, I'd like to get one of them.

[payitforward]

According to this chart, we would have been able to trade our #6 (Vesely) in 2011 for the #15 (Kawhi), #30 (Butler), #55 (E'Twaun Moore), #60 (IT) & the #35 the following year (Draymond) (we'd need a 1 pt. discount for that last pick being a year away).

Sounds pretty fair to me!

yep, I proposed that exact trade at the time!

Yup, and I +1'd you. I recall it vividly.

Right, & in fact I think we made that trade, didn't we? Isn't that trade what made possible our championship seasons in 2014-5 & 2016-17?

[payitforward]

Yup, and he's got the proverbial NBA body for a 2 - at 6'6 216, 6'9 wingspan. Very solid prospect. I'd actually take him over his teammate, Tyler Herro - who Dat really likes - because Johnson can be a more versatile matchup - particularly on defense. Herro's advantage is that he's more of an alpha type personality on the court. Hopefully Johnson develops more confidence and becomes a bit more aggressive and assertive. If the Wiz trade with Boston, he could be a player to target with the 20th pick.

I'm betting on P.J. Washington to turn out to be the best of the trio of Kentucky Wildcats who are expected to be first round picks. PJ is almost certain to be the first one of the three drafted. Most mocks I've seen have him going in the 12-18 range.

PJ is 2 inches taller than Johnson and has a 7.2 wingspan. He also dramatically improved his 3pt shooting last season.

I really liked the way Washington returned from missing the first couple of NCAA tournament games with an injury to play with aggressiveness and confidence...scoring 28 pts and pulling down 13 rebs in the loss to Auburn.

I think it's a 3-way toss-up, tbh, as to which of the 3 goes first. It might come down to team needs. PJ's NBA position is probably PF, so he better be taller and longer than Keldon. Good tough player.

Washington should contribute sooner than the other two, don't you think? He has an extra season of college ball under his belt.

[Ruzious]

I'm betting on P.J. Washington to turn out to be the best of the trio of Kentucky Wildcats who are expected to be first round picks. PJ is almost certain to be the first one of the three drafted. Most mocks I've seen have him going in the 12-18 range.

PJ is 2 inches taller than Johnson and has a 7.2 wingspan. He also dramatically improved his 3pt shooting last season.

I really liked the way Washington returned from missing the first couple of NCAA tournament games with an injury to play with aggressiveness and confidence...scoring 28 pts and pulling down 13 rebs in the loss to Auburn.

I think it's a 3-way toss-up, tbh, as to which of the 3 goes first. It might come down to team needs. PJ's NBA position is probably PF, so he better be taller and longer than Keldon. Good tough player.

Washington should contribute sooner than the other two, don't you think? He has an extra season of college ball under his belt.

I'll have to go to the crystal ball store to find one that will tell me which teams pick them.

I called the wiseguy store, but they said they're all out of me.

[Ruzious]

I'm betting on P.J. Washington to turn out to be the best of the trio of Kentucky Wildcats who are expected to be first round picks. PJ is almost certain to be the first one of the three drafted. Most mocks I've seen have him going in the 12-18 range.

PJ is 2 inches taller than Johnson and has a 7.2 wingspan. He also dramatically improved his 3pt shooting last season.

I really liked the way Washington returned from missing the first couple of NCAA tournament games with an injury to play with aggressiveness and confidence...scoring 28 pts and pulling down 13 rebs in the loss to Auburn.

I think it's a 3-way toss-up, tbh, as to which of the 3 goes first. It might come down to team needs. PJ's NBA position is probably PF, so he better be taller and longer than Keldon. Good tough player.

Washington should contribute sooner than the other two, don't you think? He has an extra season of college ball under his belt.

I'll have to go to the crystal ball store to find one that will tell me which teams pick them.

I called the wiseguy store, but they said they're all out of me.

[pcbothwel]

There are a number of wings/3's/stretch 4's that I REALLY like that could be available outside the top 20 picks:

Wings: Johnson, Windler, Louis King
Stretch 4s: Rui, Washington, Grant Williams, Šamanić, Lawson

You be hard pressed trying to convince me that trading down isnt the best move

[payitforward]

Trade down to get 2 R1 picks, then buy a R2 pick to add one of Windler, Lawson or Jalen McDaniels

[taj2133]

Read on Twitter

[payitforward]

Well... I mean... if he said so, then surely it must be true, right? Who knows more about Nassir Little than Nassir Little, right?

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Well, he's much like Kawhi in that he couldn't shoot in college. Other than that, I'm not seeing all that much similarity, except with the wingspan.

In his freshman year, Kawhi averaged 25 points and 20 rebounds per 100 possessions, while throwing in 1.4 blocks and 2.8 steals. And he actually played 33 minutes a game. It's that massive rebound total and the high steals totals that let you know that Kawhi had a superb sense of the game, even if he couldn't shoot all that well.

Nassir averaged 28 points, 13 boards, 1.5 blocks and 1.5 steals per 100 possessions, but only managed to play 18 minutes a game. His numbers are solid on a per possession basis, but not extraordinary. And the fact that he didn't even start has got to cause concern.

That said, he is a good athlete (albeit with an extremely slow lane agility time). He has very good length and strength, and he does rebound well for a 6-7 guy, suggesting a toughness that will help him at the next level.

[nuposse04]

I think Little will probably end up being better then White, and definitely would prefer gambling on him over Reddish.

I'd want Sekou so far, if not him then trade down and grab bol bol and someone else. I'd probably consider Hunter at 9 too, if he drops.

[taj2133]

Read on Twitter

[Shoe]

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

They say his final season stats were

19mpg - 7.8 pts / 3.3 reb / 0.7 ast / 0.7 stl / 0.6 blk

57.3% 2pts / 33% 3pts / 79.3% fts

Anyone have opinions on The Stepien. Their rankings are different but they had Malik Monk in the top 5

https://www.thestepien.com/

Watch on YouTube

It's against slow Euros, but Samanic tested out as an athletic freak with his agility so maybe it translates. He looked pretty good laterally at the combine.

He says he went from 208 at the beginning of the season to 230 lbs now.