2019 Wiz Summer League

[Illmatic12]

But again, the problem is that Charlotte - according to sourced intel - was trying to move up to #9 specifically so they could draft Hachimura .

So off the bat, the trade-down plan is high-risk if you can't even get your BPA at #12. It makes a lot of sense in theory based on what was publicly assumed prior to the draft, but internally the intel gathered would have been enough to nix that idea.

Now if you didn't rank Hachimura as a tier 2 prospect, then sure you might feel more comfortable trading down to the #20 + #22 (assuming Boston even wanted to do that). Personally I was fairly surprised that Clarke slipped to the 20s, I wonder if some teams would have maneuvered differently had they been assured he'd be there at #21. The Cam Johnson pick by Phoenix at #11 really threw a LOT of teams for a loop.

What I'm saying is that even if someone took Hachimura because we traded down, then our consolation prize would have been Brandon Clarke (and a 2nd round pick). It was highly likely that one of those two guys were still going to be on the board at 12.

I get that we can't evaluate their decisions with 20/20 hindsight. It's why I don't think trading 9 for 20+22 was realistic because ALL of the guys we liked (Hachimura, Clarke, Doumbouya, Herro) may have been gone by then. But if they just liked Clarke as much as this board did, they should have had the confidence to trade down two or three spots.

Gotcha. Funny thing is I actually thought Clarke was a lock to Phoenix at #11 . He's an Arizona native who the Suns supposedly liked a lot pre-draft as a defensive 4 next to Ayton, and once they made the trade down , most Suns fans on RealGM/twitter automatically assumed that's who they were going for. The Cam Johnson pick was so out of the blue. Ultimately I wonder if there was a worry that both Hachimura and Clarke would be gone by #12 , which didn't seem totally out of the question.

[payitforward]

One key thing about Clarke, in addition to his really unbelievable athleticism, is how smart he obviously is. I've heard him discuss his own game in interviews, & he's probing & dispassionate in an extremely rare way -- all the rarer when a person is discussing his own work.

As I've repeated ad nauseam, I thought Brandon Clarke was the key "get" in this draft. I like Rui, I think he's promising, he seems like a great kid with a lot of upside & plenty to work with in order to get there. But Clarke is going to be a star, & it won't take him long either.

Does it drive me nuts that we don't seem to know how to maximize value in a draft? Of course it does! Now... I didn't know that if we'd traded our #9 for Boston's #20 & 22, we could have had both Brandon Clarke & one of 2-3 other guys who looked like they were could be outstanding pros (Grant Williams, Keldon Johnson, Dylan Windler, etc.). How could I? But... give yourself a chance! & I will not be surprised if, say, Grant Williams & Keldon Johnson look like a better haul than Rui alone in a few years -- though it's also possible that won't be the case.

At the very least, even if we really liked Hachimura, knowing that Clarke was there should have given the team the confidence to trade down a few slots. Maybe trading the #9 for #20 and #22 would have been too risky (both guys could have been gone by #20), but they should have at least traded #9 for something in the low teens plus a 2nd round pick. It's why I thought my idea to trade the #9 to Charlotte for #12 and #36 was very reasonable and low risk, even without 20/20 hindsight.

For sure, nate -- if we did your trade, we could be pretty much certain that one of Rui/Clarke would be there. Would there have been some risk? Sure! But there's also something gained -- an extra pick.

Equally true, if we'd traded 9 for 20 & 22 we'd have assumed Clarke would be gone. Finding him still there would have been an extreme piece of good fortune.

But... both these thoughts are based on the idea of targeting 1, or at most 2, players, a questionable strategy. In fact, the Celtics traded the #20 to Philly for #24 & #33. They were able to do this precisely b/c they knew Elton Brand had "focused on one player" (Matisse Thybulle).

Then Ainge traded that #24 plus Aaron Baynes, whom they were trying to dump anyway, to Phoenix for a R1 pick next year (Milwaukee's). With the #33 pick they took Carsen Edwards.

Either Clarke & Grant Williams. Or Grant Williams, Carsen Edwards, & a R1 pick next year (in the twenties...).

Or, if Clarke was gone, we aren't forced to trade: looking at the actual draft presumably one of Goga Bitadze or Luka Samanic (who went #18 & #19) would have been on the board.

But... you are right: it would be great to have Clarke & both the #36 & the #42 -- trade those 2 for the #29, & pick Keldon Johnson to go with either Rui or Clarke....

[payitforward]

But again, the problem is that Charlotte - according to sourced intel - was trying to move up to #9 specifically so they could draft Hachimura.

So what? In that case, drive a harder bargain than #12 & 36. Get a R2 pick next year as well. They'd take Hachimura, & you'd be stuck taking Clarke who is a better prospect than Hachimura. Plus you'd get whoever you thought was most promising at #36 (Gafford?). Plus you'd get a R2 pick next year.

Where's the problem? If you focus on one guy, you lose.

[Illmatic12]

But again, the problem is that Charlotte - according to sourced intel - was trying to move up to #9 specifically so they could draft Hachimura.

So what? In that case, drive a harder bargain than #12 & 36. Get a R2 pick next year as well. They'd take Hachimura, & you'd be stuck taking Clarke who is a better prospect than Hachimura. Plus you'd get whoever you thought was most promising at #36 (Gafford?). Plus you'd get a R2 pick next year.

Where's the problem? If you focus on one guy, you lose.

Well that depends on whether they agree with your personal evaluation of Clarke vs Rui , which I don’t think is the case. I’ll explain:

We were evaluating these players based strictly on college production (at one point I was higher on Clarke as well), but we didn’t have the intel the teams have.

IMO the Wizards internally placed a high valuation on Rui because of the intel they had on him - firstly he’s very young (in basketball years) w/ less mileage on his body, and no injury history. Also, according to the Gonzaga coaching staff he underwent rapid improvement that correlated with his adjustment to the English language, which will only continue to improve. Mark Few indicated that Rui is capable of doing much more than what he showed in NCAA , but they purposely simplified the system on his behalf due to communication barrier.

You can agree or disagree, but evidently the Wizards had reason to believe that Rui has a much higher upside than his college production would appear to project. So if they had Hachimura as a tier 1/2 prospect (believe it was reported they would have taken him #4 overall) and placed Clarke in a lower tier, then ultimately the trade down scenario wouldn’t have been a good value proposition.

But who knows how any of these players pan out ? Will be fun to look back on this in 4-5 years

[closg00]

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