2019 Free Agent Frenzy

Post #1 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:01 pm

I figured we should have on thread to comment on Free Agent signings throughout the league.

Post #2 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:02 pm

That's two respectable free agents that are suddenly off the market (the other being Darren Collison). The reduction in supply is going to drive up the cost of free agents a bit.

I'll bet Bobby Portis and Jabari Parker are happy to hear this news.

Post #3 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:03 pm

If you have 5 or so hours to kill, Nate Duncan's 3-Part mock free agency podcast is a really interesting listen:

Read on Twitter

Obviously, they don't know exactly where the big free agents are going to go, and their decisions dictate the rest of the market, but it does give a pretty good idea of the supply/demand dynamics of the offseason.

In their scenario, Durant and Kyrie went to Brooklyn, Kawhi stayed in Toronto, Klay stayed in Golden State, Kemba stayed in Charlotte, Butler stayed in Philly, and Russell went to LA. The interesting thing was that with the Knicks and Clippers striking out, both teams elected to keep their powder dry rather than overpay on second tier guys. They pretty much stalked around the market offering fairly lucrative one-year offers to players, but that didn't really have much of an effect in bidding up the cost of key second tier free agents who wanted longer term deals. (Also, they didn't affect the RFA market because you can extend a 1-year offer sheet to a RFA.) As a result there was less total money chasing free agents and many of the free agents got less money than I expected. And that's with Kawhi, Kemba and Butler staying put and not soaking up cap room.

Milwaukee managed to retain Middleton ($30M), Brogdon ($20M), Lopez ($13M) and Hill ($4M). Philly retained Butler, Harris, Redick and Mike Scott, and even added Seth Curry.

In this mock, Detroit ended up offering a 3-year $24M offer to Sato. The guy representing the Wizards inexplicably declined that offer and went on to sign Ish Smith to a 2-year $8M deal. Another alternative PG option for us, Corey Joseph, got 3 years $21M in Phoenix.

As predicted, the center market was pretty cheap because of the high supply and limited demand. Favors went to the Celtics. Horford to Dallas. Cousins to Sacramento. Valanciunas and Zubac stayed put in Memphis and LA respectively. Noel went to LA for the Room Minimum. WCS went somewhere, I can't remember. There just wan't any demand for Bryant when his name was called. Thomas Bryant was ultimately retained for 3 years $14M. Frankly, if that was the market dynamic, I would have locked up Bryant for 4 years. That guy is going to be a major value at that price. I'm convinced he will get better and better.

I haven't finished the third part yet so I don't know where guys like Jabari and Jeff Green went.

Post #4 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:03 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #5 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:04 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #6 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:11 pm

Another center on the market:

Read on Twitter

FAH1223 · Post #7 » by **FAH1223** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 9:15 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #8 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:04 pm

FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Interesting. They don't really need him with Kemba and Marcus Smart (and Ty Jerome). I wonder if they will be able to pull off a sign-and-trade and get back a center? I've got to double check the rules on that. I'm not sure how much salary they can take back.

80sballboy · Post #9 » by **80sballboy** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:05 pm

Read on Twitter

80sballboy · Post #10 » by **80sballboy** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:06 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #11 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:54 pm

nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Interesting. They don't really need him with Kemba and Marcus Smart (and Ty Jerome). I wonder if they will be able to pull off a sign-and-trade and get back a center? I've got to double check the rules on that. I'm not sure how much salary they can take back.

Base year compensation rules apply, but the more generous salary matching rules offset most of the problem. As best as I can tell, If Rozier signs for, say, $12M a year, the Celtics will be able to take back a salary worth between $6.9M and $11M. That should be good enough for a decent center.

So who has a surplus of centers and is in need of a PG? Dallas? They could trade Dwight Powell for Rozier.

Post #12 » by **nate33** » Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:07 pm

nate33 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

Interesting. They don't really need him with Kemba and Marcus Smart (and Ty Jerome). I wonder if they will be able to pull off a sign-and-trade and get back a center? I've got to double check the rules on that. I'm not sure how much salary they can take back.

Base year compensation rules apply, but the more generous salary matching rules offset most of the problem. As best as I can tell, If Rozier signs for, say, $12M a year, the Celtics will be able to take back a salary worth between $6.9M and $11M. That should be good enough for a decent center.

So who has a surplus of centers and is in need of a PG? Dallas? They could trade Dwight Powell for Rozier.

Nevermind!

Read on Twitter

dangermouse · Post #13 » by **dangermouse** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:32 am

I like Kaminsky as a backup stretch 5. I think we are pretty well stocked at that position if we re-sign Bryant though.

Post #14 » by **nate33** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:20 pm

A little clunky at times, but some of these lines are gold!

Read on Twitter

payitforward · Post #15 » by **payitforward** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 1:32 pm

Hard to get away with rhyming house and... house!!

Not to mention losing the propulsive rhythm that is behind the original -- https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/43171/a-visit-from-st-nicholas

I question this guy as an analyst -- but I can tell you with absolutely certainty that he has no future as a litterateur!

FAH1223 · Post #16 » by **FAH1223** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:15 pm

Read on Twitter

WallToWall · Post #17 » by **WallToWall** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:49 pm

Thoughts on if Wizards should go after Elfrid Payton...He is still only 25 yo, 6 assists, 11 pts per game. UFA. He can work on his shots a bit, but its still good.
https://pelicandebrief.com/2019/04/26/should-the-new-orleans-pelicans-bring-back-elfrid-payton/

Post #18 » by **nate33** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:11 pm

WallToWall wrote:Thoughts on if Wizards should go after Elfrid Payton...He is still only 25 yo, 6 assists, 11 pts per game. UFA. He can work on his shots a bit, but its still good.
https://pelicandebrief.com/2019/04/26/should-the-new-orleans-pelicans-bring-back-elfrid-payton/

I'd say Payton is in the mix as alternatives in case Sato isn't resigned. If Sato bolts, I'd take at shot at obtaining Wright, Mudiay or Payton. All 3 are talented combo guards who haven't really figured out the PG position yet (and are thus obtainable). PG sometimes takes 5 or 6 years to really figure out, so maybe there's some upside there.

If those guys are too expensive, then I'd look at stopgap veterans to get us through the next year or two: guys like Ish Smith, George Hill and Cory Joseph

verbal8 · Post #19 » by **verbal8** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:15 pm

FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

This might be the most surprising thing I have seen so far.

Post #20 » by **nate33** » Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:33 pm

verbal8 wrote:
FAH1223 wrote:

Read on Twitter

This might be the most surprising thing I have seen so far.

Hopefully because we will be trading John Wall for him.