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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 2:57 pm
by payitforward
Davis Bertans can definitely shoot the ball! He has a TS% of .613 -- on his career! Almost 85% on FTs for his career too.

His problems are elsewhere. You could sum them up in the fact that he can't play the 3 -- only the 4. SA never played him anywhere but at PF, so that I assume he isn't quick enough or... something. In any case, he has averaged under 6 rebounds per 40 minutes over his career. That makes it hard to keep him on the floor.

Moreover, though he's a tremendously efficient scorer, he is far from a volume scorer.

On his career, he's taken only 12 shots per 40 minutes -- almost 9 of them being 3's. He has averaged 15.5 points per 40 minutes. The year he took the most shots, 2017-18, he posted his lowest TS%. Last year, with a .632 TS% (!), he posted under 15 points per 40 minutes. So, I don't think he can be counted on to be a volume scorer, just an efficient one.

IOW, Davis Bertans is not as good a player as you are making him out to be, nate, based on these few games. Still;... don't get me wrong -- he was a terrific acquisition given how little he cost. A good move by Tommy.

But, he's not a guy I'd give any significant $$ to long-term. And, given that he was traded for a TPE a few months ago, it's hard to think that he'd bring back a haul a few months later.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:09 pm
by payitforward
Ruzious wrote:I'd be offering him 10 mil a year for 3 years. His lack of rebounding and defense will keep his price down some, but I'd be willing to bet there will be several teams knocking loudly on the Wiz door for him near the trade deadline. I just mentioned in the game thread - Milwaukee traded 4 2nds to rent Mirotic for a couple months because of his deep range, and Bertans is a better shooter because of his quick release and better agility.

Mirotic doesn't shoot as high a 3 pt % as Bertans, but he can put up way more shots & keep his averages quite good. Moreover, he doesn't take away from his contributions shooting with terrible rebounding.

Overall, Mirotic is the better player & was a far better target for the Bucks than Bertans would have been.

To put it another way: why weren't "several teams knocking loudly" on SA's door when we acquired Davis Bertans for a TPE?

All the same... I hope you are right! Obviously. :)

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 3:23 pm
by nate33
Ruzious wrote:I'd be offering him 10 mil a year for 3 years. His lack of rebounding and defense will keep his price down some, but I'd be willing to bet there will be several teams knocking loudly on the Wiz door for him near the trade deadline. I just mentioned in the game thread - Milwaukee traded 4 2nds to rent Mirotic for a couple months because of his deep range, and Bertans is a better shooter because of his quick release and better agility.

He's going to cost more than that.

If nothing else, I'm sure Bertans' agent is supremely confident that he can land a full MLE offer from someone this summer. So he is thinking $10M a year is the floor, with the ceiling being quite a bit higher.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 4:18 pm
by payitforward
Well... it's impossible these days to think about value in dollars! If the cap keeps going up, a "dollar" of salary changes meaning all the time. Then again, I think I read a headline that if the NBA loses its China business the cap will decline precipitously, which disincentives long contracts.

Then again again, in 3 seasons, Davis Bertans did not become a core player for SA, & they let him go for a TPE. So, why would we be thinking of him as a long term investment for the Wizards?

Still, who knows? This will be an important season for Bertans; maybe he takes a big jump?

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 5:01 pm
by Ruzious
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I'd be offering him 10 mil a year for 3 years. His lack of rebounding and defense will keep his price down some, but I'd be willing to bet there will be several teams knocking loudly on the Wiz door for him near the trade deadline. I just mentioned in the game thread - Milwaukee traded 4 2nds to rent Mirotic for a couple months because of his deep range, and Bertans is a better shooter because of his quick release and better agility.

Mirotic doesn't shoot as high a 3 pt % as Bertans, but he can put up way more shots & keep his averages quite good. Moreover, he doesn't take away from his contributions shooting with terrible rebounding.

Overall, Mirotic is the better player & was a far better target for the Bucks than Bertans would have been.

To put it another way: why weren't "several teams knocking loudly" on SA's door when we acquired Davis Bertans for a TPE?

All the same... I hope you are right! Obviously. :)


Yeah, Bertans is very shy about putting up shots... …. ….. Since when are you pro putting up more shots even if it means lower efficiency? I don't disagree with you, but that's never been a point you've agreed with as far as I remember.

I am right... obviously. Btw, I already said all that in the other thread. As for your question, how in the bleep do you know teams weren't trying to trade for him last year. Are you some kind of omniscient omnipresent omniferous om...bitextrous… ok, I ran out of omnis. I think SA was one of those teams that wanted him very badly. Unfortunately, he played very badly for them at the end, and that probably crushed his trade value.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
by Kanyewest
Mirotic got multiple 2nd round picks at the trade deadline. Let's see if Washingon decides to deal him to a contender if the price is right.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:12 pm
by Kanyewest
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I'd be offering him 10 mil a year for 3 years. His lack of rebounding and defense will keep his price down some, but I'd be willing to bet there will be several teams knocking loudly on the Wiz door for him near the trade deadline. I just mentioned in the game thread - Milwaukee traded 4 2nds to rent Mirotic for a couple months because of his deep range, and Bertans is a better shooter because of his quick release and better agility.

Mirotic doesn't shoot as high a 3 pt % as Bertans, but he can put up way more shots & keep his averages quite good. Moreover, he doesn't take away from his contributions shooting with terrible rebounding.

Overall, Mirotic is the better player & was a far better target for the Bucks than Bertans would have been.

To put it another way: why weren't "several teams knocking loudly" on SA's door when we acquired Davis Bertans for a TPE?

All the same... I hope you are right! Obviously. :)


The Spurs wanted to offload Bertans into cap space, so that ruled out several contenders. They wanted to sign Marcus Morris (which didn't work out for them).

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:03 pm
by payitforward
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I'd be offering him 10 mil a year for 3 years. His lack of rebounding and defense will keep his price down some, but I'd be willing to bet there will be several teams knocking loudly on the Wiz door for him near the trade deadline. I just mentioned in the game thread - Milwaukee traded 4 2nds to rent Mirotic for a couple months because of his deep range, and Bertans is a better shooter because of his quick release and better agility.

Mirotic doesn't shoot as high a 3 pt % as Bertans, but he can put up way more shots & keep his averages quite good. Moreover, he doesn't take away from his contributions shooting with terrible rebounding.

Overall, Mirotic is the better player & was a far better target for the Bucks than Bertans would have been.

To put it another way: why weren't "several teams knocking loudly" on SA's door when we acquired Davis Bertans for a TPE?

All the same... I hope you are right! Obviously. :)


Yeah, Bertans is very shy about putting up shots... …. ….. Since when are you pro putting up more shots even if it means lower efficiency? I don't disagree with you, but that's never been a point you've agreed with as far as I remember.

I am right... obviously. Btw, I already said all that in the other thread. As for your question, how in the bleep do you know teams weren't trying to trade for him last year. Are you some kind of omniscient omnipresent omniferous om...bitextrous… ok, I ran out of omnis. I think SA was one of those teams that wanted him very badly. Unfortunately, he played very badly for them at the end, and that probably crushed his trade value.

I'm omniliac, Ruz -- that's how I know things happening in the omniverse.

I like Bertans. I said it was a good move to acquire him at an incredible bargain price of... essentially nothing (well, a TPA does have some value).

It was his availability for the trivial exchange of a TPA clued me in that teams weren't competing w/ each other, clamoring to acquire Bertans from SA.

I don't want Bertans to put up more shots; I just want to register that (as you and others have pointed out repeatedly & rightly) high efficiency on lower usage is less valuable than the same high efficiency on higher usage.

But the core question remains: why would we want to sign Davis Bertans long-term, given the fact that after 3 seasons with them, SA was willing to let the guy go for a TPA?

Now... if he comes out this year & ups his game in a meaningful way, then that's the answer to my question. But, based on his years in the league up til now... why?

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 10:29 pm
by payitforward
Kanyewest wrote:The Spurs wanted to offload Bertans into cap space, so that ruled out several contenders. They wanted to sign Marcus Morris (which didn't work out for them).

They didn't want "to offload Bertans into cap space." They wanted to get rid of him. Because, as you point out, "they wante to sign Marcus Morris." Which tells you they thought Marcus Morris was a better player than David Bertans.

Are you suggesting that Marcus Morris is a good player? He's not. If they preferred him over Bertans, what does that tell you?

I have no interest in getting into an argument about Bertans. I liked him going into the 2011 draft -- when it would be a big surprise to me if anyone else on this board (except Doc) was aware of him at all.

I still like him. For what he is. Even better would be if he improved, which I hope he does. &, since we had something like 1/3 - 1/2 of a roster, & since we had basically no tradable assets, it was a terrific move to acquire him -- because, essentially, it cost us nothing to do so.

I hope he does improve. It's not impossible. I am not putting him in some awful category -- like for example Austin Rivers, whom this time last year I was pointing out was a complete bum, while everybody else here was sure he was a nice addition. Bertans actually is a nice addition, because we needed players, he was available cheap, & he does something well.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sat Oct 12, 2019 11:46 pm
by Ruzious
To be fair, Marcus Morris had a pretty good season and was about a thousand times better than Bertans in the playoffs. Still, I think SA simply made a mistake in choosing Morris over him. Even the best orgs make mistakes.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:25 am
by Kanyewest
payitforward wrote:
Kanyewest wrote:The Spurs wanted to offload Bertans into cap space, so that ruled out several contenders. They wanted to sign Marcus Morris (which didn't work out for them).

They didn't want "to offload Bertans into cap space." They wanted to get rid of him. Because, as you point out, "they wante to sign Marcus Morris." Which tells you they thought Marcus Morris was a better player than David Bertans.

Are you suggesting that Marcus Morris is a good player? He's not. If they preferred him over Bertans, what does that tell you?

I have no interest in getting into an argument about Bertans. I liked him going into the 2011 draft -- when it would be a big surprise to me if anyone else on this board (except Doc) was aware of him at all.

I still like him. For what he is. Even better would be if he improved, which I hope he does. &, since we had something like 1/3 - 1/2 of a roster, & since we had basically no tradable assets, it was a terrific move to acquire him -- because, essentially, it cost us nothing to do so.

I hope he does improve. It's not impossible. I am not putting him in some awful category -- like for example Austin Rivers, whom this time last year I was pointing out was a complete bum, while everybody else here was sure he was a nice addition. Bertans actually is a nice addition, because we needed players, he was available cheap, & he does something well.


You were asking why the trade market wasn't that high for Bertans The Spurs probably could have gotten 1-2 2nd rounders like the Pelicans did for Mirotic but would have had to match salaries. BTW, I think Morris is about the same player as Mirotic during his last season with the Celtics (I would have thought Mirotic was better up until the 2019 postseason).

I'm also not that high on Morris TBH. But the Spurs are not exactly hitting it out of the ball park with all of their trades (see the Kawhi Leonard/Danny Green for Demar DeRozan/Poetl).

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:32 am
by doclinkin
doclinkin wrote:

http://www.82games.com/1819/1819SAS2.HTM

In his heaviest minutes Bertans was replacing Rudy Gay. In about 1/3 as many minutes played as the starting unit. The team scored +75 points on the season with Bertans replacing Rudy Gay with an 80% win rate. Shrug.

...

San Antonio scored only 19% of their points on the interior with Bertans replacing Gay. With Gay they scored 30% of their points in the interior.

...

On/off stats are suggestive and point to evidence that yes in fact team eFG increases when Bertans is on the floor. And they show why. The team shoots more from outside.


We talked about this earlier: why San Antonio was willing to swap Bertans for Morris. Effectively they were playing Bertans and Rudy Gay in the same lines. It inverted the court and made room for Derozan and his mid range thing. But Pop et al still had a rejuvenated Rudy at that position. In the decline of Gasol they needed a true Big to fill in on the interior, and Bertans is not that guy. Height aside he plays as an exterior attacker. Since they do have Gay in those minutes, and since they drafted a face-up big, they gambled on a back up paint defender. They lost him to NY when he reneged on his decision to go west. But still. They were reverting to what Pop is comfortable with. Grind and guts and rebounding on the interior. Bertans plays outside. Tough to rebound from there. He’s a perimeter big. This team has decided that’s the kind of big they like best. This year anyway.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 2:54 pm
by payitforward
Ruzious wrote:To be fair, Marcus Morris had a pretty good season and was about a thousand times better than Bertans in the playoffs. Still, I think SA simply made a mistake in choosing Morris over him. Even the best orgs make mistakes.

Given that the last time we saw Morris he was hitting on every shot, he's got a little glow right now. & it's true that his last 2 years, with Boston, have been the best of his career. But... he really isn't a good player even at his best. I'd certainly rather have Bertans.

Might have been a $$ decisio by SA. I think they had a cheap deal worked out w/ Morris before the idiots who run the Knicks offered him $15m!! -- which is why he backed out of it & went there. How could he not?

Anyway, given our situation -- i.e. the resources Tommy had available in building this year's roster -- acquiring Bertans was a terrific move, no doubt about it.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 13, 2019 4:04 pm
by Ruzious
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:To be fair, Marcus Morris had a pretty good season and was about a thousand times better than Bertans in the playoffs. Still, I think SA simply made a mistake in choosing Morris over him. Even the best orgs make mistakes.

Given that the last time we saw Morris he was hitting on every shot, he's got a little glow right now. & it's true that his last 2 years, with Boston, have been the best of his career. But... he really isn't a good player even at his best. I'd certainly rather have Bertans.

Might have been a $$ decisio by SA. I think they had a cheap deal worked out w/ Morris before the idiots who run the Knicks offered him $15m!! -- which is why he backed out of it & went there. How could he not?

Anyway, given our situation -- i.e. the resources Tommy had available in building this year's roster -- acquiring Bertans was a terrific move, no doubt about it.

We'll agree to agree. 8-)

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 4:03 pm
by Shoe
Bertans needs to be locked up ASAP imo

Image

A simple spread pick and roll. Tobias Harris leaps out beyond the 3 point line to cover Bertans, who is playing 5 feet farther outside the usual stretch 4 slot position. Bertans then penetrates with his left(off) hand, ball fakes to the rolling Wagner before euro stepping past Horford for the layup. His gravity on the court can pull defenders so far out of the play, but more uniquely he can blow by them with his handle. Wall or Beal running this PnR is going to either A). Get Bertans defender to stunt harder to the nail to stop their penetration, leaving a wide open 3, or B) Give Wall/Beal the space for an easy blow by.

Image

From Tom Haberstroh of ESPN a couple years back.

The statisticians at STATS LLC have crunched the SportVU data to come up with two advanced metrics which they've called "gravity score" and "distraction score." By tracking how the defense shifts at every instance in the game, gravity score attempts to quantify how much defensive attention a player receives when he's off the ball. In other words, a player's gravitational pull on the opposing defense.

Distraction score takes this one step further and quantifies how much a player's defender is willing to help off him to stop the ball handler. If a lights-out shooter is standing in the corner, his defender will rarely leave him to stop a penetrating point guard. Coaches have noticed this, but SportVU quantifies it, through comprehensive optical tracking and innovative algorithms.

I wanted to examine which players performed strongly in both metrics so I could identify the NBA's true floor-spacers. So I blended the two metrics together to create a composite metric, which I've called "respect rating."


It would be interesting to see who has the best gravity score in relation to deepness past the three point line. Curry, Trae Young would be up there, I wouldn't be surprised if Bertans found himself on that leader board.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:56 pm
by nate33
Bertans truly has SF skills. He is quick, can handle, and make decisions with the ball. And his size allows him to guard PF's. He really is a versatile player.

It would be nice to ink him to a long term deal, but the cost will be a factor. If he can be signed to MLE type money, say $11M a year or so, I'd be all in. But if he commands $16M a year, I don't think we can afford it - not with Wall and Beal on the books.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:11 pm
by payitforward
Well... guys are getting signed to completely whacky contracts, aren't they? Maybe GMs are anticipating a big jump in the cap... & soon.

This makes it look like the earlier we were to sign Bertans the better. It'd be rolling the dice, obviously, & I don't know how it could be done (i.e. why he'd avoid free agency).

OTOH, lets not make decisions based on pre-season highlights either. But, yeah, that clip definitely displays SF skills.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:32 pm
by Mojo Amok
I assume we have some sort of official plan for maximizing cap space in an effort to acquire a larger piece...you know, financial discipline, vision and all that. Well, like Gramma says "That's nice, dear."

We could also just throw money at the Latvian Laser and let the chips fly! You know he fits the scheme.

What do people think Davis is likely to get next offseason?

It's hard to augur with the China situation and the cap fluctuations that could bring in - the official cap predictions may now be out the window. I'm also not sure how the Beal extension would fit into a hypothetical cap space plan. But one thing I am sure of is that there are many worse ways to spend cap space than to sign Mr. Bertans.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:43 pm
by nate33
Mojo Amok wrote:I assume we have some sort of official plan for maximizing cap space in an effort to acquire a larger piece...you know, financial discipline, vision and all that. Well, like Gramma says "That's nice, dear."

We could also just throw money at the Latvian Laser and let the chips fly! You know he fits the scheme.

What do people think Davis is likely to get next offseason?

It's hard to augur with the China situation and the cap fluctuations that could bring in - the official cap predictions may now be out the window. I'm also not sure how the Beal extension would fit into a hypothetical cap space plan. But one thing I am sure of is that there are many worse ways to spend cap space than to sign Mr. Bertans.

As I understand it, Bertans is not eligible for an extension because his existing contract is only a 2-year deal. You can only extend contracts that are 3 or more years long.

We can certainly resign Bertans next summer, but there's nothing we can do to lock him in now, I don't think.

Given the uncertainty of free agency this summer (lots of money chasing a lousy crop of free agents), I don't love our chances of resigning him to a team friendly deal. With that in mind, I'd definitely shop him at the Trade Deadline. Whether or not I'd deal him depends on the offer. If it was just a mid to late 2nd, I'd probably decline and take my chances in resigning him in free agency. But if someone offered a late 1st, or three 2nd rounders, or something like that, I'd probably pull the trigger.

Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

Posted: Fri Nov 1, 2019 12:46 pm
by Mojo Amok
Yeah, we should either have a tentative plan to sign him at whatever the realistic numbers on a contract would be or we should just trade him at the deadline. If things are going particularly well and everyone's happy, I wouldn't like to jettison a guy like that, but we should especially avoid the middle of the road 'just sort of seeing what would happen' route. I.e. the non-plan where we would theoretically agree to sign him for less money than he's inevitably going to get and we just have him hang around for a one-off run that only degrades lottery position without generating real momentum for 2021.

The thing is, I'm having a hard time figuring out exactly how much money he's likely to get. Looking at who has money, maybe Cleveland, Memphis or Charlotte would be the main potential suitors.

Also, I may be reading it wrong, but I don't see a road to max cap space in the 2021 offseason, so the opportunity cost of locking in a "good" player looks less punitive.