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Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#201 » by tontoz » Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:59 pm

35 yr old Redick signed a 2 yr $26.5 million deal last summer. Over the previous two seasons he made $36 million.

He wasn't a regular starter until age 29.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#202 » by nate33 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:10 pm

tontoz wrote:35 yr old Redick signed a 2 yr $26.5 million deal last summer. Over the previous two seasons he made $36 million.

He wasn't a regular starter until age 29.

Redick has gone down the risky path of signing lots of big, short-term deals late in his career. He risked a career ending injury, not to mention the constant uprooting of his family. It ultimately paid off for him, but that's not always the case.

I'm sure Wesley Matthews is glad he signed a long term deal rather than shopping around for short term deals.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#203 » by payitforward » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:10 pm

Good points in both cases.

If Bertans keep playing at his level so far this season, he may well get more.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#204 » by I_Like_Dirt » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:18 pm

nate33 wrote:But even so, would Bertans prefer a 3-year $42M deal with Washington, or a 1-year $20M deal with Memphis after which there are no Bird Rights? Hot shooting can be fleeting. Bertans launching 10 3's at 45% is worth a lot, but if he regresses a bit next year and can only manage 8 3's at 41%, is he worth more than the MLE?


I mean, once we start talking about $14 mil per season, sure. But where does the nickel and diming stop? Let's say Bertans gets a 42/3 offer and counters with a 48/3 - jumping from $14 mil to $16 mil per season. Do the Wizards hold firm at $14 mil and dare him to find another bidder or take a 1-year offer? If they do that, does it become clear to his camp that the Wizards don't necessarily actually want him as $2 million per season is somehow the deal breaker? My point was more that I don't think you're really going to push significantly below $15 mil on a multi-year deal because after a certain point making close to 80% of the total value of both years in a single year is obviously the smarter move even if there's a small chance it doesn't work out. If we're going to start looking for $14 million then we're already moved away from your initial assertion that $12 million per season might be the best contract on offer by a significant margin.

As for Bertans not being worth more than the MLE if he has a down season, it's certainly possible but you've spent a bit of time already explaining why lots of teams are saving cap space for 2021. There are going to be some losers looking for places to spend their money. That's not necessarily a bad offseason to be an FA in. And the MLE is already going to be close to $10 million. Your initial assertion that $12 million, let's say over 3 years, would be better - well, that's $36 mil. $20 mil plus 2 years at the MLE of $10 mil is still more money collectively in that scenario. If you bump your offer to $14 mil per season like you just did, then Bertans stands to gain about $2 million in your scenario which assumes Bertans underperforms relative his career norms. That's not a whole lot of incentive there.

I think for a multi-year deal $14 mil is at least a reasonable starting point but is probably the lower end of things. Who knows, though, free agency can be weird and teams can just clam up the bank. And defense matters a lot and that tends not to be measured in the publicly available stats, which is why Thomas Bryant signed for so little relative his box score production this past offseason. Bertans sort of fits similarly so might wind up paid a bit less but if he is, is it really a bargain contract for the Wizards?

I'm a little torn on Bertans. I'm okay with the idea of him staying at the right price but I also wouldn't be heartbroken if he left. Eventually the Wizards are going to have to start committing to certain players and letting others go and Bertans isn't an obvious decision either way nor is he good enough that he wouldn't be relatively replaceable should the need arise. He plays the same position as Hachimura and doesn't strike me as a particularly great fit on defense. Short term, he's fine. He isn't a long term answer, though, and the Wizards aren't likely to be particularly good in the short term unless Wall has an absolutely miraculous recovery and the team really changes gears smoothly.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#205 » by tontoz » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:04 pm

We have to accept that we are pot committed to win_now mode over the next 3 years with Wall/Beal. Both guys are under contract for the next 3 years after this season. I think we should look for guys in free agency who will help us win immediately as opposed to bringing in guys to develop.

Bertans is a great fit with Wall and Beal, probably better than any free agent we could realistically expect to sign. I think we will offer him a 3 year deal prefering to increase the yearly pay vs adding a 4th year.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#206 » by nate33 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:09 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:
nate33 wrote:But even so, would Bertans prefer a 3-year $42M deal with Washington, or a 1-year $20M deal with Memphis after which there are no Bird Rights? Hot shooting can be fleeting. Bertans launching 10 3's at 45% is worth a lot, but if he regresses a bit next year and can only manage 8 3's at 41%, is he worth more than the MLE?


I mean, once we start talking about $14 mil per season, sure. But where does the nickel and diming stop? Let's say Bertans gets a 42/3 offer and counters with a 48/3 - jumping from $14 mil to $16 mil per season. Do the Wizards hold firm at $14 mil and dare him to find another bidder or take a 1-year offer? If they do that, does it become clear to his camp that the Wizards don't necessarily actually want him as $2 million per season is somehow the deal breaker? My point was more that I don't think you're really going to push significantly below $15 mil on a multi-year deal because after a certain point making close to 80% of the total value of both years in a single year is obviously the smarter move even if there's a small chance it doesn't work out. If we're going to start looking for $14 million then we're already moved away from your initial assertion that $12 million per season might be the best contract on offer by a significant margin.

As for Bertans not being worth more than the MLE if he has a down season, it's certainly possible but you've spent a bit of time already explaining why lots of teams are saving cap space for 2021. There are going to be some losers looking for places to spend their money. That's not necessarily a bad offseason to be an FA in. And the MLE is already going to be close to $10 million. Your initial assertion that $12 million, let's say over 3 years, would be better - well, that's $36 mil. $20 mil plus 2 years at the MLE of $10 mil is still more money collectively in that scenario. If you bump your offer to $14 mil per season like you just did, then Bertans stands to gain about $2 million in your scenario which assumes Bertans underperforms relative his career norms. That's not a whole lot of incentive there.

I think for a multi-year deal $14 mil is at least a reasonable starting point but is probably the lower end of things. Who knows, though, free agency can be weird and teams can just clam up the bank. And defense matters a lot and that tends not to be measured in the publicly available stats, which is why Thomas Bryant signed for so little relative his box score production this past offseason. Bertans sort of fits similarly so might wind up paid a bit less but if he is, is it really a bargain contract for the Wizards?

I'm a little torn on Bertans. I'm okay with the idea of him staying at the right price but I also wouldn't be heartbroken if he left. Eventually the Wizards are going to have to start committing to certain players and letting others go and Bertans isn't an obvious decision either way nor is he good enough that he wouldn't be relatively replaceable should the need arise. He plays the same position as Hachimura and doesn't strike me as a particularly great fit on defense. Short term, he's fine. He isn't a long term answer, though, and the Wizards aren't likely to be particularly good in the short term unless Wall has an absolutely miraculous recovery and the team really changes gears smoothly.

I don't really disagree with you.

I said that $15M a year was probably about fair value for him. I just think that the market in 2020 will be somewhat suppressed. It's no sure thing that he'll get $15M from someone (or more than that on a short deal). I'm not ruling $15M a year out, but I also think that $12M a year is plausible given the dynamics of 2020 free agency.

It's kind of a big distinction though. Bertans on a 3-year $45M deal is fairly expensive. If we can trade him at the Deadline for a 1st round pick from, say, Houston, would that be better than Bertans at $15M a year? But if we can lock up Bertans at 3-years $35M, then I'd much rather have him than the pick.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#207 » by tontoz » Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:13 pm

Looks like the Wiretap guys have been reading our board.

Davis Bertans Could Sign For At Least $15M Per Season In Offseason

Dec 12, 2019 11:26 AM

Davis Bertans is on a $7 million expiring deal and is having a career season with the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards acquired Bertans from the San Antonio Spurs this past offseason in a deal that was made for the Spurs to sign Marcus Morris.

Opinions vary on what Bertans will get on the open market.

“He will get between $15M and $20M (per year) this summer.” said one former front office person. “Most likely for a two-year deal. Don’t see him getting a four-year deal.”

One GM didn’t agree with that assessment.

“He will not get 20M,” the GM texted. “(There’s) only six teams with space.”
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#208 » by payitforward » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:31 pm

nate33 wrote:...Bertans on a 3-year $45M deal is fairly expensive. If we can trade him at the Deadline for a 1st round pick from, say, Houston, would that be better than Bertans at $15M a year? But if we can lock up Bertans at 3-years $35M, then I'd much rather have him than the pick.

3/45m -- too much.

3/35m -- my guess is that the lower the salary the shorter the deal he'll look for. If I'm his agent, I'd prefer 1 year at $11m to 3 years at $35m.

Trade him for e.g. Houston's R1 pick (i.e. a pick in the late 20s)? Sure. Every time. But, in fact I'd rather have two picks in the early to mid 30s.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#209 » by Ruzious » Fri Dec 13, 2019 5:54 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:...Bertans on a 3-year $45M deal is fairly expensive. If we can trade him at the Deadline for a 1st round pick from, say, Houston, would that be better than Bertans at $15M a year? But if we can lock up Bertans at 3-years $35M, then I'd much rather have him than the pick.

3/45m -- too much.

3/35m -- my guess is that the lower the salary the shorter the deal he'll look for. If I'm his agent, I'd prefer 1 year at $11m to 3 years at $35m.

Trade him for e.g. Houston's R1 pick (i.e. a pick in the late 20s)? Sure. Every time. But, in fact I'd rather have two picks in the early to mid 30s.

Bertans is our 2nd best player this season, but yeah - I'd have a tough time giving him 3/45 or more.

Given the Wiz situation - having a fairly high 1st and 2nd (better of Chicago's or Memphis' 2nd) and a bunch of young players, if we trade Bertans - get the highest pick you can for him - not more 2nds.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#210 » by nate33 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 6:10 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:...Bertans on a 3-year $45M deal is fairly expensive. If we can trade him at the Deadline for a 1st round pick from, say, Houston, would that be better than Bertans at $15M a year? But if we can lock up Bertans at 3-years $35M, then I'd much rather have him than the pick.

3/45m -- too much.

3/35m -- my guess is that the lower the salary the shorter the deal he'll look for. If I'm his agent, I'd prefer 1 year at $11m to 3 years at $35m.

Trade him for e.g. Houston's R1 pick (i.e. a pick in the late 20s)? Sure. Every time. But, in fact I'd rather have two picks in the early to mid 30s.

Bertans is our 2nd best player this season, but yeah - I'd have a tough time giving him 3/45 or more.

Given the Wiz situation - having a fairly high 1st and 2nd (better of Chicago's or Memphis' 2nd) and a bunch of young players, if we trade Bertans - get the highest pick you can for him - not more 2nds.

If we do end up resigning him, I sincerely hope that they finally start planning ahead by signing him to a declining deal. Next year, it'll be impossible to spend up to the luxtax so we may as well pay Bertans as much as we can then. Afterwards, as Bertans' salary declines, he'll be less of a hindrance to our cap room, and he'll grow steadily more valuable as a trade commodity.

If, for example, the two sides can agree that Bertans is worth 3 years $40M, we can pay him $14.5M the first year, $13.34M the second year, and $12.18M in Year 3.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#211 » by pcbothwel » Fri Dec 13, 2019 7:10 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:3/45m -- too much.

3/35m -- my guess is that the lower the salary the shorter the deal he'll look for. If I'm his agent, I'd prefer 1 year at $11m to 3 years at $35m.

Trade him for e.g. Houston's R1 pick (i.e. a pick in the late 20s)? Sure. Every time. But, in fact I'd rather have two picks in the early to mid 30s.

Bertans is our 2nd best player this season, but yeah - I'd have a tough time giving him 3/45 or more.

Given the Wiz situation - having a fairly high 1st and 2nd (better of Chicago's or Memphis' 2nd) and a bunch of young players, if we trade Bertans - get the highest pick you can for him - not more 2nds.

If we do end up resigning him, I sincerely hope that they finally start planning ahead by signing him to a declining deal. Next year, it'll be impossible to spend up to the luxtax so we may as well pay Bertans as much as we can then. Afterwards, as Bertans' salary declines, he'll be less of a hindrance to our cap room, and he'll grow steadily more valuable as a trade commodity.

If, for example, the two sides can agree that Bertans is worth 3 years $40M, we can pay him $14.5M the first year, $13.34M the second year, and $12.18M in Year 3.


This... I prefer an expensive 2 year deal, but whether 2 or 3 years, it needs to be front loaded
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#212 » by nate33 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:21 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Bertans is our 2nd best player this season, but yeah - I'd have a tough time giving him 3/45 or more.

Given the Wiz situation - having a fairly high 1st and 2nd (better of Chicago's or Memphis' 2nd) and a bunch of young players, if we trade Bertans - get the highest pick you can for him - not more 2nds.

If we do end up resigning him, I sincerely hope that they finally start planning ahead by signing him to a declining deal. Next year, it'll be impossible to spend up to the luxtax so we may as well pay Bertans as much as we can then. Afterwards, as Bertans' salary declines, he'll be less of a hindrance to our cap room, and he'll grow steadily more valuable as a trade commodity.

If, for example, the two sides can agree that Bertans is worth 3 years $40M, we can pay him $14.5M the first year, $13.34M the second year, and $12.18M in Year 3.


This... I prefer an expensive 2 year deal, but whether 2 or 3 years, it needs to be front loaded

I'm fine with a 3-year deal. The way I see it, we're not in the 2021 free agency sweepstakes as long as Wall is on the roster. And if we somehow manage to unload Wall, we'll have max cap room even if Bertans is on the roster. Our entire salary structure will be just rookie contracts plus Bryant, Bertans and Beal; that's just $80M or so.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#213 » by tontoz » Fri Dec 13, 2019 8:28 pm

Listening to Zach Lowe's podcast right now. Hollinger is the guest and they are talking about trade possibilities. They mentioned Bertans and both guys said we should probably keep him.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#214 » by tontoz » Fri Dec 13, 2019 10:29 pm

Bertans is 2nd in the league behind harden in 3 pointers made per game at 4. He is doing it in only 29 minutes per game without a playmaker at pg.

We have seen what Webster/Butler/Ariza did with Wall. I am looking forward to seeing them on the court together.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#215 » by nate33 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:28 pm

tontoz wrote:Listening to Zach Lowe's podcast right now. Hollinger is the guest and they are talking about trade possibilities. They mentioned Bertans and both guys said we should probably keep him.

Hollinger also said that it would absolutely take a 1st round pick to get him. The Wizards wouldn't trade him for 2nds.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#216 » by mhd » Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:43 pm

In the podcast, Zach and Hollinger were also coming up with Kevin Love trade destinations. Zach thought about the Wiz, but then backed out.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#217 » by nate33 » Sat Dec 14, 2019 10:21 pm

mhd wrote:In the podcast, Zach and Hollinger were also coming up with Kevin Love trade destinations. Zach thought about the Wiz, but then backed out.

Yeah, that's Ernie Grunfeld thinking. Sheppard wouldn't do that.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#218 » by Wizardspride » Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:39 pm

Read on Twitter
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President Trump told two senior Russian officials in a 2017 Oval Office meeting that he was unconcerned about Moscow’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election because the United States did the same in other countries
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#219 » by Ruzious » Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:23 pm

Tommy has a new nickname. Call him Tommy "Business will take care of itself" Sheppard.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#220 » by trast66 » Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:21 pm

Well its obvious Ted wants to compete (make the playoffs as an 8th seed) next year. I'm sure they don't have any confidence they can sign a free agent better than Davis. So this position makes sense.

I don't agree with a rebuild on the fly with this team. I would have traded Brad in the summer and Davis today, but if Ted's orders are to make the playoffs next year, sure keep Davis and his Bird rights and overpay the young man.

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