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Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser"

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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#341 » by payitforward » Tue May 5, 2020 12:25 pm

In which case, should we conclude from...

Image

that -- in exactly the same way Davis contributed to winning more games, Brad Beal contributed to losing more games?
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#342 » by Ruzious » Tue May 5, 2020 12:56 pm

Brad says "Defense? We don't need no stinking defense. I'd rather stay on the offensive end to argue with the officials."
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#343 » by nate33 » Tue May 5, 2020 1:12 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:Hey PIF:

Image

http://www.82games.com/1920/19WAS18.HTM

Bertans significantly helps our offense without hurting our defense. He contributes to a massive improvement in our eFG% while only slightly hurting our eFG% allowed. The team actually rebounds BETTER on the defensive glass with Bertans in the game, though he appears to be a significant detriment on the offensive glass.

The biggest blemish I see is that the team allows a lot more FTA's when Bertans is in the game.

Leaving the details aside, am I right to conclude that the significant information here is that per 100 possessions we are 6.5 points better with Davis on the floor than with Davis off the floor?

I.e. doesn't everything else on this chart basically just give us the reasons why that's true?

Yes.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#344 » by nate33 » Tue May 5, 2020 1:12 pm

payitforward wrote:Got it!

As you so often point out when I claim some nonentity is an unrecognized superstar... Bertans plays against the other team's substitutes, their 2d stringers, guys up from the g league on their 2 way contracts for a cup of coffee with the real team.

Obviously, he looks good -- you'd expect him to against this weak opposition.


How'm I doing so far? 8-)

This is valid. Bertans benefits from playing against backups more often.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#345 » by nate33 » Tue May 5, 2020 1:24 pm

payitforward wrote:
Spoiler:
In which case, should we conclude from...

Image

that -- in exactly the same way Davis contributed to winning more games, Brad Beal contributed to losing more games?

I think Beal is a unique case that has to be viewed in context. Most starters also play alongside other starting caliber players. Beal played alongside just one guy who would start on a typical 35-win team: Bryant. He also played alongside the worst starter in the NBA and one of the worst starters of all time: Isaiah Thomas. And Isaac Bonga was pretty freaking horrible for most of the season as well.

If I were to rank the players on our team in terms of how well they actually played this year, it would go like this:

1. Beal (starter)
2. Bertans
3. Bryant (starter)
4. Brown
5. Ish
6. Wagner
7. McRae
8. Rui (starter)
9. Bonga (starter)
10. Thomas (starter)

Three of our starters were the 8th, 9th and 10th best players on a bad team. And our starting PG didn't even belong in the league. And they had to go up against the starters of the opposition's team. No wonder Beal's on/off numbers weren't great.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#346 » by nate33 » Tue May 5, 2020 1:28 pm

Ruzious wrote:Brad says "Defense? We don't need no stinking defense. I'd rather stay on the offensive end to argue with the officials."

I agree that Brad did this way too much. But I think a massive factor in Beal's bad defensive on/off is that he played alongside the worst defender in NBA history: Isaiah Thomas; and did so without a rim protector behind him.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#347 » by Ruzious » Tue May 5, 2020 1:31 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Brad says "Defense? We don't need no stinking defense. I'd rather stay on the offensive end to argue with the officials."

I agree that Brad did this way too much. But I think a massive factor in Beal's bad defensive on/off is that he played alongside the worst defender in NBA history: Isaiah Thomas; and did so without a rim protector behind him.

Right, between Isaiah and very little frontcourt defense, it's a no-win situation for Brad on the defensive side.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#348 » by payitforward » Tue May 5, 2020 2:37 pm

Well... he would definitely tear up the G League!! :)

Actually, if a guy plays 29 minutes/game like Bertans, he's for sure playing plenty of minutes against the opponent's top 6-7 guys.

The argument you & Wall_Glizzy & others make for Bertans's value beyond his own numbers definitely has merit. The problem lies in quantifying that value with any accuracy (& predictability going forward).

That's why I posted the equivalent chart for Bradley Beal. If we are to interpret this kind of data literally, then Brad has substantial negative value beyond his own numbers. Now, Brad didn't have as good a year this year as last, but... come on.

Another problem in this player-dependency stuff is that we don't have really good ways to assess the reverse. Viz. what's the effect on Davis of those other guys?

Plus, let's say being on the floor w/ Davis raises Bryant's fg% 2.5% (the number doesn't matter for the point I'm going to make). Well, he's always on the floor with 4 other players. So, we can do the same analysis for each of them: how much do they influence Bryant's FG% -- right?

Hence, if some other players have a negative influence on Bryant's FG%, then the fact that it goes up when he plays with Bertans may also be because one or more of those other guys is not on the floor!

IOW, where's the baseline? After you're done, what do you wind up with? Bryant's FG% -- duh!

Moreover, to take a different but related tack, Davis shoots a lot of 3's & he shoots them at a high % -- for 3 point shots, that is! His raw FG%, however, sucks -- even though he's scoring efficiently! That's to be expected of even a good 3-point shooter.

Now, because he was a pretty high volume shooter, his extra-large number of misses meant an extra-large number of rebounds. That's why our offensive rebounding % is down w/ him on the floor -- he produces an extra large number of chances for the opponent to get a defensive rebound -- to get the ball, that is.

This doesn't affect how many points the opponent scores per 100 possessions -- why would it? But, it does give them more possessions per 40 minutes. It has to. (This is one reason why I don't like numbers per 100 possessions -- a game is not some number of posssessions; it's some number of minutes).

Again, there's interesting info here -- but interpreting it is not straightforward.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#349 » by DCZards » Tue May 5, 2020 5:06 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Spoiler:
In which case, should we conclude from...

Image

that -- in exactly the same way Davis contributed to winning more games, Brad Beal contributed to losing more games?

I think Beal is a unique case that has to be viewed in context. Most starters also play alongside other starting caliber players. Beal played alongside just one guy who would start on a typical 35-win team: Bryant. He also played alongside the worst starter in the NBA and one of the worst starters of all time: Isaiah Thomas. And Isaac Bonga was pretty freaking horrible for most of the season as well.

If I were to rank the players on our team in terms of how well they actually played this year, it would go like this:

1. Beal (starter)
2. Bertans
3. Bryant (starter)
4. Brown
5. Ish
6. Wagner
7. McRae
8. Rui (starter)
9. Bonga (starter)
10. Thomas (starter)

Three of our starters were the 8th, 9th and 10th best players on a bad team. And our starting PG didn't even belong in the league. And they had to go up against the starters of the opposition's team. No wonder Beal's on/off numbers weren't great.


Gonna need to add Shabbaz to your list, Nate. He played very well as a Zard. I'd put him in fourth ahead of Brown.

These are interesting and informative stats regarding Bertans and his oncourt impact on the team and his teammates. (I'd argue that Davis played as many or more minutes against the other team's starters as he did against backups.) I may be wrong but it seems like overall Bertans' play was a net positive for the Zards.

I will say tho that, despite his 3pt shooting prowess, Davis is a very mediocre midrange shooter. In fact, he seems downright uncomfortable shooting from inside the arc. I can't figure that one out.

I'm one of those Zards fans who's "entertained" by Davis. But more importantly I'm curious to see how productive and valuable (and entertaining) he might be playing next to Wallstar--and Beal. I'm hoping we get the opportunity to see that.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#350 » by nate33 » Tue May 5, 2020 8:42 pm

DCZards wrote:Gonna need to add Shabbaz to your list, Nate. He played very well as a Zard. I'd put him in fourth ahead of Brown.

Napier played less than 400 minutes. That's far too few minutes to be a significant factor in the discussion of Beal's on/off numbers.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#351 » by payitforward » Tue May 5, 2020 9:38 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Spoiler:
In which case, should we conclude from...

Image

that -- in exactly the same way Davis contributed to winning more games, Brad Beal contributed to losing more games?

I think Beal is a unique case that has to be viewed in context. Most starters also play alongside other starting caliber players. Beal played alongside just one guy who would start on a typical 35-win team: Bryant. He also played alongside the worst starter in the NBA and one of the worst starters of all time: Isaiah Thomas. And Isaac Bonga was pretty freaking horrible for most of the season as well.

If I were to rank the players on our team in terms of how well they actually played this year, it would go like this:

1. Beal (starter)
2. Bertans
3. Bryant (starter)
4. Brown
5. Ish
6. Wagner
7. McRae
8. Rui (starter)
9. Bonga (starter)
10. Thomas (starter)

Three of our starters were the 8th, 9th and 10th best players on a bad team. And our starting PG didn't even belong in the league. And they had to go up against the starters of the opposition's team. No wonder Beal's on/off numbers weren't great.

I can't believe you left out Garrison Mathews! Actually, you left Payton out as well. & Napier (as Zards noted). Whoa -- & Mahinmi! Pasecniks, Schofield & Miles too.

Just yanking your chain, nate.... :) (Did I mention Johnathan Williams?)

If we are not taking minutes into account, my order would be quite different. Some might seem oddly placed, & I will explain along the way. & I will include Mathews, Payton & Napier. Note: this is not "best player;" this is "who played best this year." That distinction is all the more important in that guys will be on the list w/ relatively few minutes. For example, to start with...

1. Gary Payton II
He was pretty terrific, so I have to give him credit. He didn't score, but his excellent rebounding, lots of steals, good number of assists & paltry turnovers meant that he posted numbers with very high impact. If I were running the Wizards (hah!) I'd sign him for two years for as little over the minimum as was legal under the CBA. Those who know me well will understand when I say that I am giving him the Sam Dekker Award for the 2019-20 season.

2. Troy Brown
Troy Brown is 20 & just completed his 2d season. He improved in every way that mattered. He improved a lot! & he was good as a rookie too. If he were to take an equivalent jump from season 2 to season 3 (not saying he will), he'd be on the verge of stardom.

3. Thomas Bryant
After a slow start, Bryant got better & better as the season went along. He was never going to have enough time to pull the season up to the stellar level of last year, but it was really reassuring to see him take hold.

4. Bradley Beal
Again, this is not a list by "best player" but by "played best." If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash! Under the pressure of what he was asked to do, Brad was unable to post the kind of numbers he posted last year. He still had a very good season. NBD.

5. Isaac Bonga
Everybody seems to underrate Bonga -- I don't mean his future, his upside, I mean what he got done on the court. This was essentially his rookie year (played 100 minutes for the Lakers last year) -- yet, he shot 40% on 3-pointers, 57.4% on 2's, & 81% from the line. Plus, he got a lot of offensive boards, rebounded well, had almost as many steals as turnovers. He was a revelation! Oh, & Isaac Bonga might have been the youngest player in the league this year! He didn't turn 20 until last November.

6. Shabazz Napier
What is there to say? He came in & was very very good! He'd had a good season with Minny before the trade as well. He's better, cheaper & younger than Ish Smith. Hope we can keep him.

7. Garrison Mathews
227 minutes by the undrafted kid from No Place College. He hit his shots, worked on defense, & did not look over-manned by the guys he faced in the league.

Pause: the 7 guys above played a combined 6550 minutes -- just about 1/3 of the usual player minutes in a team's season (i.e. 82x240 = 19680). If the whole team had played as well as these 7 guys, & we'd played a whole season, I'd expect us to have won 55+ games. This is what is known as good news!

8. Davis Bertans
(I know it's a surprise to see Davis this far down -- but, keep in mind that I'm giving no weight to minutes on this list. If we only looked at guys who played, say 18+ minutes a game, his numbers would put Bertans right behind Bryant, Brown & Beal. Plus, I am only looking at Davis's own numbers, not his effect on other players.) Davis Bertans this year was very much like Davis Bertans with the Spurs last year -- with one major difference: his usage went way way up -- a 43% increase. That is huge. The ball was in hands much more than ever in the past, & (obviously) he took way more shots than ever before. That had 2 results: 1. his TS% went down slightly from 63.2% to 62.8% (on a 40% jump in usage that is amazingly little. Moreover, almost of all of it is accounted for by a little drop in his 2 pt %) & 2. with the ball in his hands so much more, he had .4 more TOs per 40 minutes -- again no big deal. Davis Bertans has one problem & one problem only: he doesn't rebound the ball. He's a great scorer & average at everything else except rebounding, where he is really pretty awful.

9. Ish Smith
31-year old Ish had a nice year. Basically, his shooting was a little below average for an NBA PG. But, overall, everything was solid.

10. Rui Hachimura
Two things make it a bit hard to assess Rui -- one is all the non-basketball hype & productizing around him, & the other is that a Gonzaga teammate of Rui's was taken much later than he was & then he came in & played his a$$ off. I'm going to try to leave these things out in talking about him. 24 rookies played 700+ minutes this year. Overall, Rui's productivity looks to have been about the 9th best of in that group. One could be annoyed that 6 of the 8 who were better were taken after Rui. Or, one could note that only 3 of the 8 guys taken before him were & count our blessings that one of those guys didn't "fall" to us -- especially pretty much all the ones who so far have looked the worst were the most desired on this board -- whew! That said, Rui himself was well below average in things as a rookie: 2 pt & 3 pt shooting, defensive & offensive rebounding, assists, & blocks. He shot very well from the FT stripe & didn't turn it over much. Overall, it's wait and see. But, he certainly didn't play well, & so he's far down this list of Wizards.

11. Moe Wagner
If the personal foul didn't count in basketball, Moe would be way higher on this list! In only his 2d year in the league, he was an above-average Center overall -- except for averaging just over 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. The only other bad number he posts are turnovers.

12. Jerome Robinson
The good news about Jerome Robinson is that he had his best 272 minutes as a pro in his end of the season stint as a Washington Wizard. The bad news is that he was still terrible.

13. Isaiah Thomas
Lucky thirteen.... Isaiah shot 41+% on 3-point attempts & almost 82% from the line -- & he was still the worst player on the Washington Wizards. Wow! No point in bedeviling a guy who simply had lost the requisite athleticism to play in the league. Not his fault. Good for him for trying to come back, & I'm not troubled by our giving him a shot. But my god he was awful!

I'm leaving out Mahinmi, Mcrae, Pasecniks, Johnathan Williams, Chris Chiozza, Justin Robinson & C.J. Miles as altogether irrelevant.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#352 » by payitforward » Tue May 5, 2020 11:00 pm

Ruzious wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Brad says "Defense? We don't need no stinking defense. I'd rather stay on the offensive end to argue with the officials."

I agree that Brad did this way too much. But I think a massive factor in Beal's bad defensive on/off is that he played alongside the worst defender in NBA history: Isaiah Thomas; and did so without a rim protector behind him.

Right, between Isaiah and very little frontcourt defense, it's a no-win situation for Brad on the defensive side.

This is one inherent problem with analyzing the dependency of statistics of one player on another. Really, to do it you need to run multiple regressions using statistical analysis software.

Here's a possibly-less-boring-than-some-other refresher on what this means & why we can't simply draw conclusions ,e.g. about Davis, from the kind of data that's been offered here: https://hbr.org/2015/11/a-refresher-on-regression-analysis.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not calling this "interesting." :)
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#353 » by payitforward » Wed May 6, 2020 12:54 am

nate33 wrote:... Isaac Bonga was pretty freaking horrible for most of the season as well. ...


I don't want to engage in dispute about this statement, nate. But I do want to understand what you mean, given the context of what write here:

payitforward wrote:...5. Isaac Bonga
Everybody seems to underrate Bonga -- I don't mean his future, his upside, I mean what he got done on the court. This was essentially his rookie year (played 100 minutes for the Lakers last year) -- yet, he shot 40% on 3-pointers, 57.4% on 2's, & 81% from the line. Plus, he got a lot of offensive boards, rebounded well, had almost as many steals as turnovers. He was a revelation! Oh, & Isaac Bonga might have been the youngest player in the league this year! He didn't turn 20 until last November.....

Now, obviously, the fact that he's so young has nothing to do with the past season -- tho of course it affects the way we would think of his potential future.

But, his outstanding 2- & 3-point FG%s (even on few attempts), his FT%, his quite good level of rebounding (especially offensive rebounds), & the rest of what I took note of when I looked at his season numbers to write the above -- I find it hard to match that with your assessment. He fouled too much, but that's the only number to take note of as negative.

So... a query as to what you have in mind?
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#354 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Wed May 6, 2020 1:07 am

What was our winning percentage when Bertans had a bit of grease under his fingernails at home vs on the road?

Surely there must be a website for that.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#355 » by nate33 » Wed May 6, 2020 2:24 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Spoiler:
In which case, should we conclude from...

Image

that -- in exactly the same way Davis contributed to winning more games, Brad Beal contributed to losing more games?

I think Beal is a unique case that has to be viewed in context. Most starters also play alongside other starting caliber players. Beal played alongside just one guy who would start on a typical 35-win team: Bryant. He also played alongside the worst starter in the NBA and one of the worst starters of all time: Isaiah Thomas. And Isaac Bonga was pretty freaking horrible for most of the season as well.

If I were to rank the players on our team in terms of how well they actually played this year, it would go like this:

1. Beal (starter)
2. Bertans
3. Bryant (starter)
4. Brown
5. Ish
6. Wagner
7. McRae
8. Rui (starter)
9. Bonga (starter)
10. Thomas (starter)

Three of our starters were the 8th, 9th and 10th best players on a bad team. And our starting PG didn't even belong in the league. And they had to go up against the starters of the opposition's team. No wonder Beal's on/off numbers weren't great.

I can't believe you left out Garrison Mathews! Actually, you left Payton out as well. & Napier (as Zards noted). Whoa -- & Mahinmi! Pasecniks, Schofield & Miles too.

Just yanking your chain, nate.... :) (Did I mention Johnathan Williams?)

If we are not taking minutes into account, my order would be quite different. Some might seem oddly placed, & I will explain along the way. & I will include Mathews, Payton & Napier. Note: this is not "best player;" this is "who played best this year." That distinction is all the more important in that guys will be on the list w/ relatively few minutes. For example, to start with...

1. Gary Payton II
He was pretty terrific, so I have to give him credit. He didn't score, but his excellent rebounding, lots of steals, good number of assists & paltry turnovers meant that he posted numbers with very high impact. If I were running the Wizards (hah!) I'd sign him for two years for as little over the minimum as was legal under the CBA. Those who know me well will understand when I say that I am giving him the Sam Dekker Award for the 2019-20 season.

2. Troy Brown
Troy Brown is 20 & just completed his 2d season. He improved in every way that mattered. He improved a lot! & he was good as a rookie too. If he were to take an equivalent jump from season 2 to season 3 (not saying he will), he'd be on the verge of stardom.

3. Thomas Bryant
After a slow start, Bryant got better & better as the season went along. He was never going to have enough time to pull the season up to the stellar level of last year, but it was really reassuring to see him take hold.

4. Bradley Beal
Again, this is not a list by "best player" but by "played best." If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash! Under the pressure of what he was asked to do, Brad was unable to post the kind of numbers he posted last year. He still had a very good season. NBD.

5. Isaac Bonga
Everybody seems to underrate Bonga -- I don't mean his future, his upside, I mean what he got done on the court. This was essentially his rookie year (played 100 minutes for the Lakers last year) -- yet, he shot 40% on 3-pointers, 57.4% on 2's, & 81% from the line. Plus, he got a lot of offensive boards, rebounded well, had almost as many steals as turnovers. He was a revelation! Oh, & Isaac Bonga might have been the youngest player in the league this year! He didn't turn 20 until last November.

6. Shabazz Napier
What is there to say? He came in & was very very good! He'd had a good season with Minny before the trade as well. He's better, cheaper & younger than Ish Smith. Hope we can keep him.

7. Garrison Mathews
227 minutes by the undrafted kid from No Place College. He hit his shots, worked on defense, & did not look over-manned by the guys he faced in the league.

Pause: the 7 guys above played a combined 6550 minutes -- just about 1/3 of the usual player minutes in a team's season (i.e. 82x240 = 19680). If the whole team had played as well as these 7 guys, & we'd played a whole season, I'd expect us to have won 55+ games. This is what is known as good news!

8. Davis Bertans
(I know it's a surprise to see Davis this far down -- but, keep in mind that I'm giving no weight to minutes on this list. If we only looked at guys who played, say 18+ minutes a game, his numbers would put Bertans right behind Bryant, Brown & Beal. Plus, I am only looking at Davis's own numbers, not his effect on other players.) Davis Bertans this year was very much like Davis Bertans with the Spurs last year -- with one major difference: his usage went way way up -- a 43% increase. That is huge. The ball was in hands much more than ever in the past, & (obviously) he took way more shots than ever before. That had 2 results: 1. his TS% went down slightly from 63.2% to 62.8% (on a 40% jump in usage that is amazingly little. Moreover, almost of all of it is accounted for by a little drop in his 2 pt %) & 2. with the ball in his hands so much more, he had .4 more TOs per 40 minutes -- again no big deal. Davis Bertans has one problem & one problem only: he doesn't rebound the ball. He's a great scorer & average at everything else except rebounding, where he is really pretty awful.

9. Ish Smith
31-year old Ish had a nice year. Basically, his shooting was a little below average for an NBA PG. But, overall, everything was solid.

10. Rui Hachimura
Two things make it a bit hard to assess Rui -- one is all the non-basketball hype & productizing around him, & the other is that a Gonzaga teammate of Rui's was taken much later than he was & then he came in & played his a$$ off. I'm going to try to leave these things out in talking about him. 24 rookies played 700+ minutes this year. Overall, Rui's productivity looks to have been about the 9th best of in that group. One could be annoyed that 6 of the 8 who were better were taken after Rui. Or, one could note that only 3 of the 8 guys taken before him were & count our blessings that one of those guys didn't "fall" to us -- especially pretty much all the ones who so far have looked the worst were the most desired on this board -- whew! That said, Rui himself was well below average in things as a rookie: 2 pt & 3 pt shooting, defensive & offensive rebounding, assists, & blocks. He shot very well from the FT stripe & didn't turn it over much. Overall, it's wait and see. But, he certainly didn't play well, & so he's far down this list of Wizards.

11. Moe Wagner
If the personal foul didn't count in basketball, Moe would be way higher on this list! In only his 2d year in the league, he was an above-average Center overall -- except for averaging just over 7.5 fouls per 40 minutes. The only other bad number he posts are turnovers.

12. Jerome Robinson
The good news about Jerome Robinson is that he had his best 272 minutes as a pro in his end of the season stint as a Washington Wizard. The bad news is that he was still terrible.

13. Isaiah Thomas
Lucky thirteen.... Isaiah shot 41+% on 3-point attempts & almost 82% from the line -- & he was still the worst player on the Washington Wizards. Wow! No point in bedeviling a guy who simply had lost the requisite athleticism to play in the league. Not his fault. Good for him for trying to come back, & I'm not troubled by our giving him a shot. But my god he was awful!

I'm leaving out Mahinmi, Mcrae, Pasecniks, Johnathan Williams, Chris Chiozza, Justin Robinson & C.J. Miles as altogether irrelevant.


Do you really think Beal was the 4th best player on the team? I mean, seriously? The man is getting All-NBA consideration and you think a journeyman/G-League was the better player.

I know you believe that you are impartial and are just following the numbers wherever they lead, but seriously, if every single expert in the league, every coach, every GM, every sportswriter and voter all think Beal is an All-Star caliber player and in the conversation for All-NBA; and you don't think he's better than a G-League player; perhaps you ought to re-examine your process.

4th best player on the team. GTFO of here!
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#356 » by payitforward » Wed May 6, 2020 2:41 pm

long suffrin' boulez fan wrote:What was our winning percentage when Bertans had a bit of grease under his fingernails at home vs on the road?

Surely there must be a website for that.

Not exactly sure what your question is, but maybe this info is somehow relevant:

1. We had the 9th best record in the EC when the season ended. Our home record (16-16) was also 9th best in the East.

2. On their home courts Milwaukee was 28-3, Toronto was 23-9, Boston was also 23-9, Miami was 27-5, Indiana was 21-11, & Philly was 29-2.

3. Another way to look at those home records might drive home the obvious point: Boston, Miami & Philly combined to go 79-16 at home. We went 16-16.

2. The total road records of the 8 teams above us in the EC was better than the Wizards home record.

Still, I'm sure that when Davis Bertans, or any other Wizards played above his usual level -- played his very best -- it gave us a better chance to win than when Davis and/or those other guys didn't do so. As with any team in any sport.

Here's the best measure of where the team is overall: only the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Atlanta Hawks, the Charlotte Hornets, the New York Knicks, & the depleted Golden State Warriors posted a worse +/- against the league than the Washington Wizards.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#357 » by payitforward » Wed May 6, 2020 3:30 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...
If we are not taking minutes into account, my order would be quite different. Some might seem oddly placed ...r. Note: this is not "best player;" this is "who played best this year." ...

...Bradley Beal
Again, this is not a list by "best player" but by "played best." If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash! Under the pressure of what he was asked to do, Brad was unable to post the kind of numbers he posted last year. He still had a very good season. ...
...

Do you really think Beal was the 4th best player on the team? I mean, seriously? The man is getting All-NBA consideration and you think a journeyman/G-League was the better player.

I know you believe that you are impartial and are just following the numbers wherever they lead, but seriously, if every single expert in the league, every coach, every GM, every sportswriter and voter all think Beal is an All-Star caliber player and in the conversation for All-NBA; and you don't think he's better than a G-League player; perhaps you ought to re-examine your process.

4th best player on the team. GTFO of here!

Right -- Bradley Beal is the best player on the Washington Wizards (not counting John Wall until we see how he comes back).

I've highlighted what I wrote in that previous post that I mistakenly thought handled the subject. Re-reading it, I shouldn't have said 100 yard dash. A season, even 70% of a season, is a marathon. You can't judge Brad or anyone running a marathon if he is required to carry an anvil when he runs it -- or, better metaphor, if you make him run it while carrying some of the other runners on his back! :)

Probably I should have put that sentence in my previous post; I guess I didn't think it was necessary. Obviously, however, it was necessary for me to be more explicit -- so thanks for giving me the occasion.

There is no doubt about it. Moreover, I'm on record on the subject of Brad since before the 2012 draft: I thought he was a terrific draft pick. I also supported him when many others here were calling him a bust. Etc. etc. etc.

The larger point: overall, my goal wasn't to award players stars based on where they sat in an ordered list of how "good" they are -- if your team goes 20-34, you can afford to skip the awards ceremony for a year!

No, my point was to analyze the actual this-season play of the guys on the team. &, of course, the overall motivation for that is to be thinking about who to keep & how. Above all I wished to highlight guys who did well but whose qualities (or potential) as players is easily overlooked or who are easily subjected to superficial judgements.

Thus, the play of Isaac Bonga was the single biggest positive surprise this season. He out-performed our expectations on this board (mine included) by a huge amount! In fact, if instead of looking at who had the best season I'd been looking at who had the best season compared to what we predicted of him, Bonga would have won the gold -- w/ Mathews & Wagner up on the stand with him to collect the other 2 medals.

So... have I addressed your concerns with what I wrote?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#358 » by nate33 » Wed May 6, 2020 3:47 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...
If we are not taking minutes into account, my order would be quite different. Some might seem oddly placed ...r. Note: this is not "best player;" this is "who played best this year." ...

...Bradley Beal
Again, this is not a list by "best player" but by "played best." If a guy is carrying an anvil, you don't make any judgments about his time in the 100 yard dash! Under the pressure of what he was asked to do, Brad was unable to post the kind of numbers he posted last year. He still had a very good season. ...
...

Do you really think Beal was the 4th best player on the team? I mean, seriously? The man is getting All-NBA consideration and you think a journeyman/G-League was the better player.

I know you believe that you are impartial and are just following the numbers wherever they lead, but seriously, if every single expert in the league, every coach, every GM, every sportswriter and voter all think Beal is an All-Star caliber player and in the conversation for All-NBA; and you don't think he's better than a G-League player; perhaps you ought to re-examine your process.

4th best player on the team. GTFO of here!

Right -- Bradley Beal is the best player on the Washington Wizards (not counting John Wall until we see how he comes back).

I've highlighted what I wrote in that previous post that I mistakenly thought handled the subject. Re-reading it, I shouldn't have said 100 yard dash. A season, even 70% of a season, is a marathon. You can't judge Brad or anyone running a marathon if he is required to carry an anvil when he runs it -- or, better metaphor, if you make him run it while carrying some of the other runners on his back! :)

Probably I should have put that sentence in my previous post; I guess I didn't think it was necessary. Obviously, however, it was necessary for me to be more explicit -- so thanks for giving me the occasion.

There is no doubt about it. Moreover, I'm on record on the subject of Brad since before the 2012 draft: I thought he was a terrific draft pick. I also supported him when many others here were calling him a bust. Etc. etc. etc.

The larger point: overall, my goal wasn't to award players stars based on where they sat in an ordered list of how "good" they are -- if your team goes 20-34, you can afford to skip the awards ceremony for a year!

No, my point was to analyze the actual this-season play of the guys on the team. &, of course, the overall motivation for that is to be thinking about who to keep & how. Above all I wished to highlight guys who did well but whose qualities (or potential) as players is easily overlooked or who are easily subjected to superficial judgements.

Thus, the play of Isaac Bonga was the single biggest positive surprise this season. He out-performed our expectations on this board (mine included) by a huge amount! In fact, if instead of looking at who had the best season I'd been looking at who had the best season compared to what we predicted of him, Bonga would have won the gold -- w/ Mathews & Wagner up on the stand with him to collect the other 2 medals.

So... have I addressed your concerns with what I wrote?

No. Your take is still hot garbage. Beal was easily much better than Gary Payton II or anyone else on the roster this season. The idea that anyone else was even close is ludicrous.
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#359 » by DCZards » Wed May 6, 2020 4:32 pm

PIF, I get your point about how you ranked players. It’s pretty clear that you’re not suggesting that Payton was the Zards best player...or that he's a better player than Beal.

But I disagree with your conclusion that Payton's play showed that he was someone the Zards should try to keep. (I believe that’s what you’re suggesting. Correct me if I’m wrong.)

Yes, Payton was good, at times, but in limited minutes and with a limited role and responsibility—playing defense. GPII doesn’t bring enough to the table as a ballhandler, distributor or shooter to make me want to keep him over, say, a guy like Jerome Robinson.

Robinson showed me a lot more a potential and upside than Payton. While clearly not the defender that Payton is, Robinson proved, at least to me, that he’s a pretty good (and hardworking) man-to-man defender. And, unlike Payton, Robinson can actually shoot and is a threat to score. Plus Payton is 27 years old while Robinson just turned 23.

Agree that Bonga played above expectations for the most part. While some here were skeptical of Bonga’s future as an NBA player (and understandably so), I was one of those who found his potential intriguing (especially given his length, handle and ability to play D)…and argued that the Zards should hang on to Bonga to see what they had. (I believe you wanted the Zards to waive Bonga and keep Jemerrio Jones. (Again, correct me if I'm wrong about that.)
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Re: Wizards trade for Davis Bertans "the Latvian Laser" 

Post#360 » by payitforward » Thu May 7, 2020 2:13 am

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:...So... have I addressed your concerns with what I wrote?

No. Your take is still hot garbage. Beal was easily much better than Gary Payton II or anyone else on the roster this season. The idea that anyone else was even close is ludicrous.

Well, first off, I'd appreciate it if you'd cool your jets a little, nate -- I don't call your words "garbage."

OTOH, if I was unable to get what I meant across to you, then that problem has to be added to my account. I'll have to figure out how I fell short of that -- especially given the way I described what Brad was asked to do this season.

Anyway... as I remarked in starting this sequence of thoughts, I have no interest in disputing w/ you. I'm more interested in hearing what you think than turning difference approaches into unnecessary debate.

A dispute of that kind, once it gains steam, is usually about ways to keep the dispute going & even make it more significant. That's not necessary in this case. After all, I obviously don't think Gary Payton II is a player in Beal's class, & I have at least tried to indicate that I can like what he did in his 400 minutes w/o it impacting what I think about what Brad or anyone else did.
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