Mo Swag

[dckingsfan]

This needs to be bumped. He's back and killing it again. I'm still of two minds on his defense but if he figures that out, he's a quality starter at worst. He's come a long way since the offseason and really seems to be putting in the work. I'm very impressed.

I thought he was the best player on the floor last night for the Wizards...

[NatP4]

20-10-2 per 36 on .684 TS%. Rest of the advanced numbers are off the charts. Wizards found another core piece in the front court along with Bryant.

[tontoz]

When Wall gets back I think he will really like having bigs that can run the floor. Gortat and Kief weren't exactly a threat on the fast break.

[JAR69]

Why has Mo stopped shooting 3s since his return? By my count, he shot 56 in the 21 games he played before getting injured (2.67/gm). Since his return, he has shot a total of 9 in 10 games. Injury related? Different role? He seems to be turning down open 3s in favor of handoffs.

Overall, he is also shooting far less. Pre-injury it was 7.6 shots per game. Post-injury it is 4.7 per. Less minutes, yes, but I don't think that explains everything.

[JAR69]

Why has Mo stopped shooting 3s since his return? By my count, he shot 56 in the 21 games he played before getting injured (2.67/gm). Since his return, he has shot a total of 9 in 10 games. Injury related? Different role? He seems to be turning down open 3s in favor of handoffs.

Overall, he is also shooting far less. Pre-injury it was 7.6 shots per game. Post-injury it is 4.7 per. Less minutes, yes, but I don't think that explains everything.

I think he only playing 3 minutes less per game.

[payitforward]

No posts in this thread since February -- wow! Yet, everyone was excited by Moe's play early in the season. Especially because, off his Summer League stint, none of us were confident he could play in this league before the season began!

Moritz Wagner is not a good player yet. But... I tell you what -- he improved enormously from his rookie season with LA, & that bodes well for him. Check out the changes from 2018 in all his per 40 minute numbers:

Points 18.6 > 19.95 -- no big deal, but look how he did it:

2-point FG%: 52.1% > 67.1%
3-point FG%: 28.6% > 34.3%
FT%: 81.1% > 81.7%

The result was:
TS%: 53.3% > 66.6%

Defensive boards: 6.1 > 8
Offensive boards: 1.5 > 2.9+
Assists: 2.17 > 2.75
Turnovers: 3.5 > 3.08
Steals: 1 > 1.25
Blocks: 1.17 > 1

Overall, that represents an enormous improvement. Ok, it's still a little below average for an NBA Center -- yet pretty good for a 2d year guy!

But then come...

Fouls: 5.1 > 7.6 (An average Center is at 4.3)

So... what's the message? Moe Wagner improved a lot. He needs to up his 3-point %, given the kind of player we want him to be. & control his turnovers. Above all, he has to cut down his fouls.

Still, his improvement over rookie year is the high order info here -- it was enormous.

[nate33]

No posts in this thread since February -- wow! Yet, everyone was excited by Moe's play early in the season. Especially because, off his Summer League stint, none of us were confident he could play in this league before the season began!

Moritz Wagner is not a good player yet. But... I tell you what -- he improved enormously from his rookie season with LA, & that bodes well for him. Check out the changes from 2018 in all his per 40 minute numbers:

Points 18.6 > 19.95 -- no big deal, but look how he did it:

2-point FG%: 52.1% > 67.1%
3-point FG%: 28.6% > 34.3%
FT%: 81.1% > 81.7%

The result was:
TS%: 53.3% > 66.6%

Defensive boards: 6.1 > 8
Offensive boards: 1.5 > 2.9+
Assists: 2.17 > 2.75
Turnovers: 3.5 > 3.08
Steals: 1 > 1.25
Blocks: 1.17 > 1

Overall, that represents an enormous improvement. Ok, it's still a little below average for an NBA Center -- yet pretty good for a 2d year guy!

But then come...

Fouls: 5.1 > 7.6 (An average Center is at 4.3)

So... what's the message? Moe Wagner improved a lot. He needs to up his 3-point %, given the kind of player we want him to be. & control his turnovers. Above all, he has to cut down his fouls.

Still, his improvement over rookie year is the high order info here -- it was enormous.

If you count his charges drawn as steals, then he looks much better still. That said, drawing charges at a high rate is unsustainable because of the likelihood of fouls. As long as he plays like that, he's suitable only as a backup. But as a backup, he's very productive.

[Ruzious]

A disconcerting fact on Wagner - once he came back from his injury, he made 1 3 in the 16 games he played - none in the last 13. He needs to be a threat to be a decent backup 5, imo. Not to mention 6.4 fouls per 36 minutes for the season. He really over-did the offensive foul drawing thing. Teams complained, officials listened, and he stopped getting close calls. Maybe he let that effect him at both ends of the floor.

[payitforward]

To the point, both responses.

I don't think anyone would want to claim that Moe has a high ceiling. Still, the big takeaway is improvement: Moritz Wagner was much better in his 2d year than he was as a rookie.

I do a rough assessment of a player by using a 40 minute measure: add up his points, offensive boards, & steals, plus 1/2 his defensive boards, blocks & assists. From this total subtract all his FGAs & turnovers, plus 1/2 his FTAs & fouls.

That formula results in 2.46 per 40 minutes as a rookie & 8.29 his second year. That's one hell of a jump!

[nate33]

Re-reading this thread has gotten me excited about Mo Swags again. For a while there, he looked like a budding star, and then the injury derailed him.

There really isn't much of a limit on his ceiling. There's still a real chance that he develops into an above-average starting big man, not merely a backup.

[payitforward]

If he jumps from year 2 to 3 at the same rate of his jump from year 1 to 2... he'll be knocking on the door of Giannis territory! So... I guess that's not happening!

As to "budding star," I don't think there was a 3-game stretch this year where Moe produced the kind of per-40-minute numbers Thomas Bryant produced in 2018-19. I haven't checked, but even without taking a look I'd put $$ on it.

Still, the best predictor of improvement tomorrow is improvement today, so for sure there's reason to hope he'll become a pretty good player.

[nate33]

If he jumps from year 2 to 3 at the same rate of his jump from year 1 to 2... he'll be knocking on the door of Giannis territory! So... I guess that's not happening!

As to "budding star," I don't think there was a 3-game stretch this year where Moe produced the kind of per-40-minute numbers Thomas Bryant produced in 2018-19. I haven't checked, but even without taking a look I'd put $$ on it.

Still, the best predictor of improvement tomorrow is improvement today, so for sure there's reason to hope he'll become a pretty good player.

Wagner's early season defensive metrics were way better than anything Bryant has ever posted.

Oh, and Wagner had a 3-game stretch from 11/15 to 11/20 when he averaged 30 points, 13.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.3 turnovers per 40 minutes on a TS% of .863, with a 3P% of .750. Let's see Bryant beat that!

[Ruzious]

We gotta find out who the real Wagner is - the Mo betta one from the beginning of the season or the Moe from The 3 Stooges version we saw towards the end. Btw, Wags has a skinny 6'8 brother named Franz who showed some potential as a SF at Michigan this season.

[payitforward]

If he jumps from year 2 to 3 at the same rate of his jump from year 1 to 2... he'll be knocking on the door of Giannis territory! So... I guess that's not happening!

As to "budding star," I don't think there was a 3-game stretch this year where Moe produced the kind of per-40-minute numbers Thomas Bryant produced in 2018-19. I haven't checked, but even without taking a look I'd put $$ on it.

Still, the best predictor of improvement tomorrow is improvement today, so for sure there's reason to hope he'll become a pretty good player.

Wagner's early season defensive metrics were way better than anything Bryant has ever posted.

Oh, and Wagner had a 3-game stretch from 11/15 to 11/20 when he averaged 30 points, 13.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.3 turnovers per 40 minutes on a TS% of .863, with a 3P% of .750. Let's see Bryant beat that!

Most important -- I just wrote an extremely positive post about Moe Wagner. I'd rather it not be turned into a criticism of him, which it was not.

As to the 3 game stretch, Moe had an unbelievable game on 11/15, grabbing 15 boards & scoring 30 points on 13 of 15 shooting. On top of which, he did all that damage in just over 25 minutes. Wow!

In our next 2 games, on 11/17 & 11/20, he scored 26 points in 45 minutes -- @3 more points per 40 minutes than his season average. He grabbed 9 boards (in this case a lot fewer than his season average).

Still, in the 2d & 3d of the stretch he shot the ball great! He got the combined 26 points on only 16 shots & 1 FTA.

In fact, it didn't stop there! in the next game -- the 4th of this run -- though he only scored 7 points, he did it on just 5 shots.

That's some amazing shooting over those 4 games! 26-38 -- & 10 of them were 3-point makes, so it was 62 points on 38 shots.

On top of which he proceeded to go 17-24 in the next 3 games for a total of 36 points (.750 TS% for those 3 games) before finally cooling off vs. the Lakers.

In all, that was an incredible run of shooting -- 98 points on 62 shots & 3 FTAs over 7 games for an astronomical .774 TS%. It does seem unlikely that Thomas Bryant ever did that (he did go 14-14 in one game last season, if I remember right). Bryant, otoh, did post a .674 TS% on that entire season -- over 1500 minutes.

The comparison is pointless of course. If I initiated it, then it's my fault. These guys are both Washington Wizards -- the better either of them plays the happier everyone is. The main story on Moritz Wagner is that he got a lot better this year! May it continue.

[nate33]

Read on Twitter

Declining the Robinson option is a no-brainer, but I'm really surprised that they declined Wagner.

His option would have cost $3.8M next year, that's not a lot of money. The team was going to have a payroll of roughly $122M assuming $4M for a 1st round pick. The luxtax threshold is $136M so there was room for Wagner and either the full MLE or the retention of Bonga.

I guess the idea that centers are cheap applies here. Why pay Wagner $3.8M when you can get a guy like Khem Birch in free agency for about the same money?

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Witness protection program?

[closg00]

Witness protection program?

I was wondering why we haven't seen Mo in a stretch 5 line-up:

Neto|Beal|Deni|Bertans|Mo

It's gotta be better than the 3-guard line-up

[NatP4]

Because Sheppard thinks Robin Lopez is good at basketball. Wagner is a quality backup C, it’s unfortunate.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Because Sheppard thinks Robin Lopez is good at basketball. Wagner is a quality backup C, it’s unfortunate.

This is part of the reason the Wizards are 0-3.

Nerlens Noel or another young guy who defends would have made more sense than Lopez. Young and athletic enough to defend at a high level but not a veteran who would doom the future of Wagner.

This reminds me of when Sheppard’s mentor, Ernie Grunfeld, acquired Emeka Okafor. I knew that was going to doom both Vesely and Seraphin. Nene was already doing well on the Wizards. There were no minutes and no way for playing time.

The only way Mo gets minutes now behind Bryant and $$ Lopez is if one gets injured or traded.

[NatP4]

Because Sheppard thinks Robin Lopez is good at basketball. Wagner is a quality backup C, it’s unfortunate.

This is part of the reason the Wizards are 0-3.

Nerlens Noel or another young guy who defends would have made more sense than Lopez. Young and athletic enough to defend at a high level but not a veteran who would doom the future of Wagner.

This reminds me of when Sheppard’s mentor, Ernie Grunfeld, acquired Emeka Okafor. I knew that was going to doom both Vesely and Seraphin. Nene was already doing well on the Wizards. There were no minutes and no way for playing time.

The only way Mo gets minutes now behind Bryant and $$ Lopez is if one gets injured or traded.

And in Mo’s case, he was actually a decent player last season. He rebounds well, stretches the floor, and scores efficiently. He always plays hard. Lopez is a massive net negative that doesn’t help you on either side of the court. He is -31 in 3 games for a reason.