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Mo Wagner

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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#81 » by tontoz » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:12 pm

Another thing to like is his shot selection. He is looking to get to the basket first, but he will take a wide open 3 if it's there. He has attempted only 7 shots total from 10-22 feet compared to 23 shots from 3.

He really wants to get to the basket and he is pretty good at getting there/finishing with either hand.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#82 » by Illmatic12 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:20 pm

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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#83 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:21 pm

It's the nature of this unusually constructed, very much in progress team, I guess, that everyone wants to draw enormous conclusions -- positive or (less often) negative -- based on infinitesimally small data sets.

I like it; it's fun. OTOH, it doesn't mean ****, which would be useful to keep in mind. Though not fun -- at least not when the latest data set was otherworldly great.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#84 » by nate33 » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:40 pm

payitforward wrote:It's the nature of this unusually constructed, very much in progress team, I guess, that everyone wants to draw enormous conclusions -- positive or (less often) negative -- based on infinitesimally small data sets.

I like it; it's fun. OTOH, it doesn't mean ****, which would be useful to keep in mind. Though not fun -- at least not when the latest data set was otherworldly great.

Somebody get Mr. Buzzkill a drink.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#85 » by payitforward » Sat Nov 16, 2019 9:29 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:...It's easy to forget but Wagner was a first-round grade prospect. He was considered a better NBA prospect than Bryant easily.

I love the way you say a thing like this as if it was some kind of "fact."

Entering college in 2015, Bryant was #25 on the RSCI 100. Wagner was #97

How about their college numbers? Well, lets give Mo a break here. He only played 250 minutes as a freshman, not much of a sample size so we'll ignore his poor numbers. Instead lets compare his Sophomore year at Michigan (900 minutes) to Bryant's Freshman year at Indiana (800 minutes).

Since they played more or less the same number of minutes, per-40 minute numbers should be pretty reliable:

Points
Wagner 20.2
Bryant 21

TS%
Wagner .654
Bryant .704

Pretty close so far -- a slight advantage to Bryant. How about the other stuff?

Rebounds
Wagner 7
Bryant 10.2

Assists
Wagner 0.9
Bryant 1.7

Blocks
Wagner 0.6
Bryant 1.6

Hmmm. That's an awfully big rebounding difference. & more than 2.5 times as many blocks. 80% more assists. All in Bryant's favor. Bryant the Freshman, that is. Vs. Wagner the Sophomore. I.e. Wagner a year later in the growth curve. Isn't that supposed to be important in young players?

Wagner is ahead in some categories, however:

Steals
Wagner 1.7
Bryant 0.9

Turnovers
Wagner 2.4
Bryant 2.9

Fouls
Wagner 4.5
Bryant 5

Basically, I'd say the advantage in steals & turnovers nullifies Bryant's advantage in TS%. All the same, Thomas Bryant's Freshman season was clearly quite a bit better than Moritz Wagner's Sophomore season.

Oh, I almost forgot: Tommy Sheppard was quoted last year as follows: "I had a R1 grade on Thomas Bryant." Does that mean anything?

So far this season Mo Wagner has been a pleasant surprise. Overall, has he been as good as Bryant this year? No. The foul/turnover rates would make that virtually impossible. OTOH, has Bryant been as good as the Thomas Bryant of last year? No, not nearly. But, we're still in small sample size land.

Of course, he may do this every night. He may never again turn the ball over 5 times in 14 minutes. Or commit 5 fouls in 18 minutes. He may just play the way he did last night.

If that's what he does, for sure, he'll be better than Thomas Bryant. In fact, he'll be better than every Center who has ever played the game with the possible exception of Wilt & maybe one or two others.

Last night's game was over the top for Wagner. Unbelievable! How could anyone not be excited? It was great fun! The idea, however, that one would draw any conclusions whatever from the game is... ridiculous.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#86 » by badinage » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:22 pm

payitforward wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:...It's easy to forget but Wagner was a first-round grade prospect. He was considered a better NBA prospect than Bryant easily.

I love the way you say a thing like this as if it was some kind of "fact."

Entering college in 2015, Bryant was #25 on the RSCI 100. Wagner was #97

How about their college numbers? Well, lets give Mo a break here. He only played 250 minutes as a freshman, not much of a sample size so we'll ignore his poor numbers. Instead lets compare his Sophomore year at Michigan (900 minutes) to Bryant's Freshman year at Indiana (800 minutes).

Since they played more or less the same number of minutes, per-40 minute numbers should be pretty reliable:

Points
Wagner 20.2
Bryant 21

TS%
Wagner .654
Bryant .704

Pretty close so far -- a slight advantage to Bryant. How about the other stuff?

Rebounds
Wagner 7
Bryant 10.2

Assists
Wagner 0.9
Bryant 1.7

Blocks
Wagner 0.6
Bryant 1.6

Hmmm. That's an awfully big rebounding difference. & more than 2.5 times as many blocks. 80% more assists. All in Bryant's favor. Bryant the Freshman, that is. Vs. Wagner the Sophomore. I.e. Wagner a year later in the growth curve. Isn't that supposed to be important in young players?

Wagner is ahead in some categories, however:

Steals
Wagner 1.7
Bryant 0.9

Turnovers
Wagner 2.4
Bryant 2.9

Fouls
Wagner 4.5
Bryant 5

Basically, I'd say the advantage in steals & turnovers nullifies Bryant's advantage in TS%. All the same, Thomas Bryant's Freshman season was clearly quite a bit better than Moritz Wagner's Sophomore season.

Oh, I almost forgot: Tommy Sheppard was quoted last year as follows: "I had a R1 grade on Thomas Bryant." Does that mean anything?

So far this season Mo Wagner has been a pleasant surprise. Overall, has he been as good as Bryant this year? No. The foul/turnover rates would make that virtually impossible. OTOH, has Bryant been as good as the Thomas Bryant of last year? No, not nearly. But, we're still in small sample size land.

Of course, he may do this every night. He may never again turn the ball over 5 times in 14 minutes. Or commit 5 fouls in 18 minutes. He may just play the way he did last night.

If that's what he does, for sure, he'll be better than Thomas Bryant. In fact, he'll be better than every Center who has ever played the game with the possible exception of Wilt & maybe one or two others.

Last night's game was over the top for Wagner. Unbelievable! How could anyone not be excited? It was great fun! The idea, however, that one would draw any conclusions whatever from the game is... ridiculous.


What’s the point of being a fan if you can’t be ... fanatical?!?

Come on ... give us our delusions, our hopes, our dreams, our fantasies of a brilliant tomorrow.

Even if it’s only one game.

And I say that with the bitter knowledge of having watched this woebegone franchise for too too long, of having seen John Williams and LaBradford Smith and Jordan Crawford and Javale McGee and and and turn my delusions to dust.

Give it to me. Please. PLEASE. One game without carping. Without qualification. Without measured, Kevin Broom analytics.

One game.

“Man,” said that noted composer of light and breezy verse Thomas Stearns Eliot — who definitely qualifies as long-suffering, though he had no frickin’ idea what it was like to endure this team — “cannot bear too much reality.”
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#87 » by tontoz » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:40 pm

I don't see any reason to start him. He just got here and is playing well off the bench. Sometimes lineup changes can have unintended consequences. His foul rate is so high it would be hard to give him a lot of minutes anyway.

The real lineup problem right now is at pg. I don't like either guy, even as a backup.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#88 » by nate33 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:35 am

payitforward wrote:So far this season Mo Wagner has been a pleasant surprise. Overall, has he been as good as Bryant this year? No. The foul/turnover rates would make that virtually impossible. OTOH, has Bryant been as good as the Thomas Bryant of last year? No, not nearly. But, we're still in small sample size land.

Gotta disagree. Looking at the stats, I think it's pretty clear that Wagner has been better:

Image

Wagner has been a much more prolific and efficient shooter. Yeah, his turnovers are high, but if you want to discuss the battle of possessions, you need to factor that Wagner is drawing 2.6 charges per 100 possessions to Thomas Bryant's 0.0. That means he gets 3.4 more steals + charges than Bryant, which exactly offsets his 3.4 more turnovers. So with the steals and turnovers cancelling each other out, we're left with them being roughly equal on the battle of possessions, but Wagner being far more effective of a scorer. Wagner also blocks more shots and gets more rebounds.

Wagner's foul rate is an issue which would certainly limit his total minutes, but during the minutes he is on the floor he is definitely more effective. You might want to argue that his foul rate must be resulting in the opposition shooting a lot more high percentage free throws, but the on/off numbers belie that notion. The team's DRtg with Wagner on the floor is an impressive 99.5. With Bryant on the floor, it's 125.0. Surely, that's not ALL Bryant's fault, but he bears some responsibility. Generally speaking, center is the most important defensive position on the floor.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#89 » by payitforward » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:49 am

badinage wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:...It's easy to forget but Wagner was a first-round grade prospect. He was considered a better NBA prospect than Bryant easily.

I love the way you say a thing like this as if it was some kind of "fact."

Entering college in 2015, Bryant was #25 on the RSCI 100. Wagner was #97...

What’s the point of being a fan if you can’t be ... fanatical?!?

Come on ... give us our delusions, our hopes, our dreams, our fantasies of a brilliant tomorrow.

Even if it’s only one game.

And I say that with the bitter knowledge of having watched this woebegone franchise for too too long, of having seen John Williams and LaBradford Smith and Jordan Crawford and Javale McGee and and and turn my delusions to dust.

Give it to me. Please. PLEASE. One game without carping. Without qualification. Without measured, Kevin Broom analytics.

One game.

“Man,” said that noted composer of light and breezy verse Thomas Stearns Eliot — who definitely qualifies as long-suffering, though he had no frickin’ idea what it was like to endure this team — “cannot bear too much reality.”

You're right... & yet, as Ezra (he from whom Eliot learned what little he knew) said...

'If a man isn't willing to take some risk for his opinions, either his opinions are no good or he's no good.'

&, even more...

'I have tried to write Paradise
...
Let the Gods forgive what I
have made
Let those I love try to forgive
what I have made.'
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#90 » by badinage » Sun Nov 17, 2019 3:18 am

payitforward wrote:
badinage wrote:
payitforward wrote:I love the way you say a thing like this as if it was some kind of "fact."

Entering college in 2015, Bryant was #25 on the RSCI 100. Wagner was #97...

What’s the point of being a fan if you can’t be ... fanatical?!?

Come on ... give us our delusions, our hopes, our dreams, our fantasies of a brilliant tomorrow.

Even if it’s only one game.

And I say that with the bitter knowledge of having watched this woebegone franchise for too too long, of having seen John Williams and LaBradford Smith and Jordan Crawford and Javale McGee and and and turn my delusions to dust.

Give it to me. Please. PLEASE. One game without carping. Without qualification. Without measured, Kevin Broom analytics.

One game.

“Man,” said that noted composer of light and breezy verse Thomas Stearns Eliot — who definitely qualifies as long-suffering, though he had no frickin’ idea what it was like to endure this team — “cannot bear too much reality.”

You're right... & yet, as Ezra (he from whom Eliot learned what little he knew) said...

'If a man isn't willing to take some risk for his opinions, either his opinions are no good or he's no good.'

&, even more...

'I have tried to write Paradise
...
Let the Gods forgive what I
have made
Let those I love try to forgive
what I have made.'


I see your deranged anti-Semitic genius, and raise you a spinster baker genius:

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That perches in the soul —
And sings the tune without the words —
And never stops — at all —’
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#91 » by Ruzious » Sun Nov 17, 2019 12:58 pm

Hey, the 2 centers combined for 42 points, 24 rebounds, 18/24 shooting - including 4 3's from Wagner, 4 assists vs 3 to's. Kinda wonder what might happen if they play them together for a few minutes every now and then. Nah, let's keep going this way. As a poet would say, I think we gots the center position covered kinda good for a while.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#92 » by Mojo Amok » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:59 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:So far this season Mo Wagner has been a pleasant surprise. Overall, has he been as good as Bryant this year? No. The foul/turnover rates would make that virtually impossible. OTOH, has Bryant been as good as the Thomas Bryant of last year? No, not nearly. But, we're still in small sample size land.

Gotta disagree. Looking at the stats, I think it's pretty clear that Wagner has been better:

Image

Wagner has been a much more prolific and efficient shooter. Yeah, his turnovers are high, but if you want to discuss the battle of possessions, you need to factor that Wagner is drawing 2.6 charges per 100 possessions to Thomas Bryant's 0.0. That means he gets 3.4 more steals + charges than Bryant, which exactly offsets his 3.4 more turnovers. So with the steals and turnovers cancelling each other out, we're left with them being roughly equal on the battle of possessions, but Wagner being far more effective of a scorer.

Wagner's foul rate is an issue which would certainly limit his total minutes, but when he is on the floor he is definitely more effective. You might want to argue that his foul rate must be resulting in the opposition shooting a lot more high percentage free throws, but the on/off numbers belie that notion. The team's DRtg with Wagner on the floor is an impressive 99.5. With Bryant on the floor, it's 125.0. Surely, that's not ALL Bryant's fault, but he bears some responsibility. Generally speaking, center is the most important defensive position on the floor.


Yeah, there's also the insane on/off numbers for Mortiz too:

Image

I'm not going to pay attention to Bryant's bad on/off numbers or hold that against him given the noise and who's out there with him, but it's hard to ignore that the team goes on runs when Mo comes in. We need more sample size on this, but it would speak loudly in the debate.

Another thing with Centers is setting screens, though I feel both guys are pretty solid in that department. That said, while Bryant is ahead of Mo right now in screen assists (6.4 to 5.1 per 36), Mo's pick and pop ability makes a LOT of space and could just become more and more of an issue for the opposition as they build chemistry.

Like with this sort of thing brought up by Zach Lowe a few weeks back:

https://media.video-cdn.espn.com/gifs/mp4/WSH_SAS_BERTANS_2GIF.mp4

That could be bread and butter for some gaudy efficiency numbers when you put teams in that sort of situation with multiple deadeyes setting interweaving screens. It's just not the same if the center isn't much of a threat in that scenario. Changes your whole playbook.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#93 » by doclinkin » Tue Nov 19, 2019 12:58 am

nate33 wrote:Just an unbelievable night by Wagner against Minnesota:



What struck me when I watched it was the really pretty passing that led to almost all of his baskets. He made smart cuts and moved to the right spot on the floor, but team passing looked like the best Euroleague teams. If not quite as pretty as the Golden State death lineup.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#94 » by payitforward » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:01 pm

nate33 wrote:
payitforward wrote:So far this season Mo Wagner has been a pleasant surprise. Overall, has he been as good as Bryant this year? No. The foul/turnover rates would make that virtually impossible. OTOH, has Bryant been as good as the Thomas Bryant of last year? No, not nearly. But, we're still in small sample size land.

Gotta disagree. Looking at the stats, I think it's pretty clear that Wagner has been better:

Image

Wagner has been a much more prolific and efficient shooter. Yeah, his turnovers are high, but if you want to discuss the battle of possessions, you need to factor that Wagner is drawing 2.6 charges per 100 possessions to Thomas Bryant's 0.0. That means he gets 3.4 more steals + charges than Bryant, which exactly offsets his 3.4 more turnovers. So with the steals and turnovers cancelling each other out, we're left with them being roughly equal on the battle of possessions, but Wagner being far more effective of a scorer. Wagner also blocks more shots and gets more rebounds.

Wagner's foul rate is an issue which would certainly limit his total minutes, but during the minutes he is on the floor he is definitely more effective. You might want to argue that his foul rate must be resulting in the opposition shooting a lot more high percentage free throws, but the on/off numbers belie that notion. The team's DRtg with Wagner on the floor is an impressive 99.5. With Bryant on the floor, it's 125.0. Surely, that's not ALL Bryant's fault, but he bears some responsibility. Generally speaking, center is the most important defensive position on the floor.

I missed this, sorry.

The first thing to say is that the two guys are now very close. If you measure numbers per 100 possessions, you are right that Mo has the slight lead. If you measure it per 40 minutes, Bryant has the slight lead.

I prefer measuring production over minutes -- games are played/decided in minutes. But, that's a minor point.

As well, if Bryant were playing at last year's level, the comparison wouldn't be close despite Wagner's good numbers. But, that too is a minor point -- it's important only b/c we know Bryant can play at that level (i.e. he did).

Two thing are important:

1. Moritz Wagner is playing better than he has. That's great. If he keeps playing at his current level, that would be absolutely great.

2. Thomas Bryant is playing at a much lower level than he did last year.

Yet -- & this is important -- it's also true that in every way other than scoring, he's actually playing a little better than last year!

Now, let's look at Bryant's scoring vs. last year (I'm using per 48 minute numbers, as they're in front of me & I'm getting tired of doing arithmetic in my head!):

Last year, on 12.9 two-point attempts & 4.4 FT attempts, Bryant produced 21.03 points -- a .709 TS%
This year, on 13.6 two-point attempts & 5 FTAs, Bryant has produced 20.9 points -- a .661 TS%

That's a little drop, to be sure. But, I don't think we'd be worrying about all on its own, would we? Especially given the little overall improvement on the non-scoring stuff which makes up the difference pretty easily.

What we've left out so far is 3-point shooting. Overall, that is the only area of the game where Bryant has experienced a real drop -- he's shooting close to 40% more of them than last year -- but he's only making them at 24.6%.

That's it. That's the problem in Bryant's game this year.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#95 » by tontoz » Wed Nov 20, 2019 5:21 pm

Bryants shot has been off but that doesn't worry me much.


I am more concerned about his defense which has been pretty bad at times. Granted some of that is caused by pgs getting into the lane routinely but some of it is on him. The difference on D between him and Mo is pretty obvious.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#96 » by payitforward » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:03 pm

tontoz wrote:Bryant.... The difference on D between him and Mo is pretty obvious.

Wow.... Moritz Wagner is committing 8 1/3 fouls per 40 minutes.

Fortunately, I am able to remain sane by listening to Clifford Brown and Max Roach at Basin Street, one of the greatest albums in the history of jazz. Here's one cut:
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#97 » by Ruzious » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:26 pm

payitforward wrote:
tontoz wrote:Bryant.... The difference on D between him and Mo is pretty obvious.

Wow.... Moritz Wagner is committing 8 1/3 fouls per 40 minutes.

Fortunately, I am able to remain sane by listening to Clifford Brown and Max Roach at Basin Street, one of the greatest albums in the history of jazz. Here's one cut:

Even better while drinking a hurricane and looking up who's leading the NBA in offensive fouls drawn.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#98 » by DCZards » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:59 pm

Clifford Brown, pif. We could hang out. I'm currently learning to play the classic "I Remember Clifford" on piano. It was written by Benny Golson in honor of Brown, who died in a car accident when he was in his 20s.

My favorite version of "I Remember Clifford" is the one sung by Dinah Washington.
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#99 » by nate33 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:19 pm

Boomers.

:nonono:
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Re: Mo Wagner 

Post#100 » by gtn130 » Wed Nov 20, 2019 9:26 pm

payitforward wrote:What we've left out so far is 3-point shooting. Overall, that is the only area of the game where Bryant has experienced a real drop -- he's shooting close to 40% more of them than last year -- but he's only making them at 24.6%.

That's it. That's the problem in Bryant's game this year.


I am not at all convinced Bryant should be taking as many 3s as he has been. A large number of the shots he's been taking from 3 appear to have no chance of ever going in. Moritz Wagner is a significantly better shooter than Bryant is.

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