Dat2U wrote:verbal8 wrote:prime1time wrote:Rui will be able to attack players one-on-one and score. This is the most important skill any player can have in the league.
A few great players are able to do this on a consistent basis, however an isolation heavy-approach leads to a very real chance of being a poor-man's Carmelo Anthony.
I think the biggest unknown with Rui is if he can be an accurate 3 point shooter.
And this is my biggest fear with him. He has the ideal attribute that will mask his shortcomings. The ability to get a bucket. Folks overlook rebounding & defense if a guy can score.
True but it also commands value in front offices and transactions. If he can score effectively, worst case scenario Rui will be a coveted piece. I get the feeling though he will work hard to be more than that.
Still, what he does is something this team needs:
In this NBA era, efficiency is king. If you look at the stats, of the four factors, efficient scoring has the strongest correlation with wins nowadays. More often than not the team with the better eFG at the end of the game is the winner.
Under this rule set If you can outgun your opponent you can win. It’s that simple. For basketball purists it can give you fits. Popovich has recently bitched about that very fact. Teams like Houston can be relevant without spending a great deal of effort on the defensive aspect of team-building simply because they hit their shots and have a guy like Harden scoring with machine-like efficiency. Hitting your shots, outside, inside, freethrows. That’s all you need.
Leastways that’s true in the regular season. In the post season (if we can get ahead of ourselves here) things tighten up and the metagame changes. We get back to the ball we know. Defense rises again. Still, here there seems to be an advantage for teams that can score efficiently inside the arc. The outside shot is covered, the paint is locked down. Teams like Philly and the Bucks fell short because the middle closed off. Players like playoff Bradley Beal, who have a midrange game, see a bump in their postseason numbers. Those shots are available. Kawhi lived in the midrange this postseason.
So. It’s hard to see efficient scoring as a weakness to be scared of.
And I can see a philosophy in our team building that, with a savvy coach, could really be used to create some efficiency mismatches in our favor.
After years of lacking outside shooting Bigs, under the Tommy regime, we now have two and a prospect — Bertans, Bryant, and a developing Hachimura who showed a pull up three in Summerleague. (discounting Wagner for now). Depending on the development of these players we may be able to go big and still play small ball.
Then we will have room underneath for drive and kick players to slice in to the middle. And for some motion sets to let Beal get free on picks and screens that strand opposing defensive bigs on the perimeter, trying to both guard our catapult Bigs and also hedge our quick savvy ball handlers. Underneath our ‘Mids’ will be loose for backdoor cuts and opportunistic scoring.
If a team goes small they may be able to cut us up with motion themselves. Sure. But we may still be able to hang and keep pace by playing Bigs who can also score efficiently from outside, and possibly get a rebound advantage just by staying tall when they go small.
Much depends on the continued development of the two TBJrs. Can Troy defend, rebound, and pass to the finisher? Can Thomas hit from outside enough to prove a threat? Can Thomas develop a roll game, to punish players for leaving him to trap the ball handler?
In that configuration, if we have outside scoring Bigs, then Hachimura’s interior proficiency and footwork and reliable high-percentage scoring are a fantastic tool to work with. And he has a bit of a face up game too. If his 3pt shot develops, with hard work, then that’s a weapon we can use.
This is a reason why I’m irked that people are so quick to write off the player formerly known as Wallstar. He was effective even when wounded, his best skill is not speed but his vision.
Consider that John Wall made Marcin Gortat and his stone hands one of the most efficient scorers off the pick and roll. While relying on lazy inefficient Kieff to add any sort of offense. Or spacing.
Achilles be damned, Wall has been playing on injured feet and legs his whole career. And still carving people up. Bone spurs don’t suddenly happen. If he comes back pain free who knows what he could do.
And he’s still big. Still one of the best passers in the game. Still has good vision. Yes he tried to force passes to players who couldn’t do anything with them. But. What would he have done with an efficient athletic Big with good hands? And if that Big also pick and pop if their man collapsed to close the lane? A retooled Wall with no pain, next to 4th year Bryant? Bigs develop slowly. John gets to watch him grow then step in when he’s ready to do something with it.
And What would John be able to do with spacing provided by hairtrigger sniping big Davis Bertans. We aren’t talking about this acquisition enough. It’s a game changer. His shot is so pretty and so quick release on the catch. Teams can’t leave him outside. With 3fg hitting Bigs at the top of the key, the no mans land inside the arc is wide open.
Which sets you up for back door and off ball attacks. Troy left alone underneath will make the right pass to the player in motion. Troy rebounds bigger than you notice. Plays the “everybody eats” game that Saty and Otto and Beal excelled in — until teams realized that only Brad could create for himself. We needed another aggressive creative scoring option. Again. We had a Kieff out there.
Now if John is cut off on the drive and needs a bailout option — now? On any play he may have an aggressive and athletic 3/4 with huge soft hands. Now he’s got the high-efficiency Hachizilla to catch and finish. We upgrade from lazy Kieff.
And instead of an efficient but passive Otto who passed up more shots than he took. Ottos signature play was skipping in unnoticed for a putback dunk. When teams forgot about him since he was in stealth mode most of the game. Otto was never calling for the ball and trying to kill the man in front of him. Otto wasn’t an option on an alley oop above the defense. He was smooth and looked good in stats. But he put the ‘pass’ in passive. For attack mode players it wa frustrating. His whole career veterans have been saying he could be very good if he was willing to assert himself. He never did. He hid in the background.
Guys like Rui and Bryant don’t have that problem. They love to catch and finish in the teeth of defense. Both give us that kind of high energy aggression that Wall (Ariza, Pierce, Gortat) asked Otto to give. Hachikaze has only one option right now, if he gets the ball he’s scoring on you. So it’s up to the ballhandler to get him the ball when he can do something with it.
So. Yeah. Kawhi showed in the playoffs that efficient 2pt shooting can trump pace and space. It gives you more ball control to hit 50%+ from the interior every trip up the court than does a reliance on the more streaky 33%+ shooting from outside. Notice Popovich has been loading up on midrange gunners. And that was one team rumored to be trading up for Hachimura.
It used to be a truism that scoring is overrated. But changes in the rules have worked to make that less true. Yes scoring differential is key. But there are three ways to get there. Stop the opponent all the time. Be slightly better at both ends. Or blow them out of the water on offense. That last seems to be the way the league is going right now. And where we may be headed too.
Offensively I think this team is being overlooked. I might have built the team a different way. But. I think there’s a chance for something surprising and special here. Yes until and unless our defense develops in a surprisingly good way we may have to score 120+ every night.
But picture how much fun it will be if we do.
And if we win that way.
A team of hard working aggressive high energy guys playing fast scoring fast from outside and in. Good character guys who work hard off court. Positive energy and seriousness of purpose. Who actually seem to love the game of basketball and are not just collecting a check. Who willingly run end to end. Who make the smart pass to reward the guy who works to get open. And who score relentlessly from all levels.
That’s a team that will be fun to cheer for.
So I figured I’d propose a contrarian pick if I couldn’t trade down. 
