nate33 wrote:A supplemental point to doc's marvelous post above regarding John Wall playing with the spacing of Bertans and Bryant:
John Wall had terrific shot selection early last season. He seemed to thrive with more spacing from his bigs in the absence of Gortat. I posted this a few games into the season when he was healthy. He had a career low number of attempts from midrange, with almost everything coming from the rim or behind the arc.
Those numbers leveled off a bit as the season wore on and the injuries mounted, but he still finished with the 3rd highest percentage of attempts at the rim, and his 3rd highest FG% at the rim. John Wall likes spacing.
If Wall comes back in March reasonably healthy, he is likely to be a MASSIVE upgrade over the shytshow of Ish and Thomas manning the point. Also, Brown and Hachimura should be reaching a real level of comfort with NBA play by then. I think it's very possible that the team might put together a pretty impressive run to close out the season. Yeah, it will be against a bunch of tanking teams, but it still will be significant morale boost. The team could go 17-43 in its first 60 games but then finish 13-9 down the stretch with Wall playing well and the youngsters rounding into form.
We might find ourselves next summer rooting for a team that played above-500 ball for the last quarter of a season on the strength of a mostly under-23 roster, with a high lotto pick on the way in the offseason plus $15-20M in cap room. The narrative in the media will be that Sheppard has done a very nice job of turning the franchise around and things are looking up.
From your keyboard to God's ears! I like this idea a lot.
Where I see a problem is in scoring efficiency: Bryant had a tremendous TS% last year, obviously, but the next 5 guys in descending order of TS% were Howard, Robinson, Green, Satoransky & Parker, who combined for over 25% of our minutes last year & are all gone. How do we get past that problem? Well...
Bertans' numbers last year were oddly like Jeff Green's -- though overall he was better than Jeff. To me, it wouldn't be a big surprise for Bertans/Rui (& even with Wagner getting minutes) to be better than Green/Kieff/Parker -- in TS% & overall. Given that Bryant will play many more minutes this year than last, if there's a downgrade in team TS% it doesn't seem likely to come from the 4-5.
But, SF is another matter: Trevor was one of our best players last year. Ideally, Troy should play all his minutes from last year plus his own (@2200 overall); but it'll take a nice jump from him to be as solid as Ariza was. & who's behind him? If we have to play Miles a lot, & he is as he was last year.... . It will be a big help if we can somehow keep Jones -- at least based on his numbers last year, though that was a tiny sample obviously. & if Admiral shows something positive pretty quickly.
The big drop -- esp. in team TS% -- is likely to come from the PG position, where TBH I can't see how Ish Smith is better even than Chasson Randle! Better send some very positive vibes in the direction of Justin Robinson!
It's all on Brad & the young'uns, as nate points out. What a nice story it would be to see them develop quickly & have a solid last 1/3 of the season!