ImageImageImageImageImage

Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2

Moderators: nate33, LyricalRico, montestewart

User avatar
doclinkin
General Manager
Posts: 9,461
And1: 1,629
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#621 » by doclinkin » Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:42 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21

I have mixed feelings.

Chiozza played consistently well in Summer League and preseason, so I'm happy we retained him on a 2-way. The guy looks like he'll have a career in the NBA, even if only as a 3rd string PG. And maybe he'll get better.

But I do wonder why in the world we are keeping so many point guards. I've got Ish, Thomas, Robinson and Chiozza, plus we have Beal and Brown who can play PG in a pinch (meaning it's less critical to have a 3rd string PG on the active roster). There's also Wall, and possibly Bonga down the road.

It sure would be nice to trade one of our PG prospects for someone else's prospect at SF or C.


Robinson and Chiozza can both be sent down to the GoGo for key stretches. Recall that Tommy is charged with oversight of both teams, the Wiz and the G-Squad. If he can get cross-pollination in how to build the teams and a similar play style then he can do more sandbox experiments at the lower level and players who are able to shift back and forth learn applicable skills.

Even if the rules now are restrictive on the use of the G-League, we are going to get a flood of highschool players in future years, likely the role of the minor league system will have to expand. Sounds like Ted was advocating for us to have pro team academies at all levels of schooling, like European football clubs or the Croatian basketball academy system. If he can sell our G Team as a pipeline to the bigs, that wins and plays the right way he can recruit the UFAs and late picks like Justin Robinson whose agent helped discourage teams from picking him in order to ink here. Talented young kids will be eager to play on the Wizards sponsored AAU squad (Ted cited ownership of AAU teams by both Wall and Beal as inspirational).

I think this is a side benefit from promoting J McRae. He played well in our G Squad and earned a contract here when he was called up. Ditto retaining Chiozza and keeping him around since he played well for us on the GoGo and in preseason. IT is a risk we are taking. Ish Smith is a known commodity and placeholder for a rehabbing Wall, with little upside in long term value. In a system where we will rely heavily on ballhandlers to kick to shooters and set up Bigs (in a Houston Jr model. IIRC from the BBAll stat nerd board Dean Oliver helped create the Houston system) it will be useful to have homegrown floor generals who can take a lead role and teach incoming players how its run and where to be.

Too often the minor league players are just jacking shots trying to be noticed. We are trying to institute a system. Like I said in other places, it is instructive to me that Coach Thibault has input on how the Wiz squad should be built. HIs team just won the whole thing with ball handlers and outside shooting. Ted said he thinks cross pollination between all our BBall squads is a good idea.

Just saying, it's not only Pops making decisions on the lower level team, but Tommy trying to figure out a holistic team concept that translates and improves synergy between all phases: Roster. Coaching. Medical. Analytics. Promotion. Etc.Leastways that is what they suggested at their ten person press conference or whatever.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,583
And1: 8,669
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#622 » by nate33 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:47 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
Read on Twitter
?s=21

I have mixed feelings.

Chiozza played consistently well in Summer League and preseason, so I'm happy we retained him on a 2-way. The guy looks like he'll have a career in the NBA, even if only as a 3rd string PG. And maybe he'll get better.

But I do wonder why in the world we are keeping so many point guards. I've got Ish, Thomas, Robinson and Chiozza, plus we have Beal and Brown who can play PG in a pinch (meaning it's less critical to have a 3rd string PG on the active roster). There's also Wall, and possibly Bonga down the road.

It sure would be nice to trade one of our PG prospects for someone else's prospect at SF or C.

I don't think these moves are about this season alone, they're about the longterm. It's imperative that we find a cheap longterm solution at backup PG for the remainder of Wall's contract - between Robinson and Chiozza, you hope one of them turns out to be the answer.

Isaiah Thomas could easily be on another team by the end of the season, so he's not in the longterm plans. If IT stays healthy and plays well, at the deadline you could try to flip him to a playoff team for a future 2nd rounder.

That's a good point.

It will make even more sense if we find a way to dump Ish Smith, or use him as ballast in some other trade. A year from now, I'd be happy with a 3-guard rotation of Wall, Beal and Brown. A guy like Chiozza or Robinson could be an 10/11th man, taking PG minutes if there is foul trouble, injuries or garbage time. It would work out real well if we drafted a stud SF in the lottery:

3 Guard rotation: Wall, Beal, Brown
3 Wing rotation: Hachimura, Bertans, 2020 lotto pick SF
2 Centers: Bryant, free agent

Garbage time lineup/Emergency backups:
Chiozza, McRae, Schofield, Bonga, Wagner
User avatar
Illmatic12
General Manager
Posts: 9,738
And1: 8,104
Joined: Dec 20, 2013
 

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#623 » by Illmatic12 » Mon Oct 21, 2019 5:59 pm

nate33 wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
nate33 wrote:I have mixed feelings.

Chiozza played consistently well in Summer League and preseason, so I'm happy we retained him on a 2-way. The guy looks like he'll have a career in the NBA, even if only as a 3rd string PG. And maybe he'll get better.

But I do wonder why in the world we are keeping so many point guards. I've got Ish, Thomas, Robinson and Chiozza, plus we have Beal and Brown who can play PG in a pinch (meaning it's less critical to have a 3rd string PG on the active roster). There's also Wall, and possibly Bonga down the road.

It sure would be nice to trade one of our PG prospects for someone else's prospect at SF or C.

I don't think these moves are about this season alone, they're about the longterm. It's imperative that we find a cheap longterm solution at backup PG for the remainder of Wall's contract - between Robinson and Chiozza, you hope one of them turns out to be the answer.

Isaiah Thomas could easily be on another team by the end of the season, so he's not in the longterm plans. If IT stays healthy and plays well, at the deadline you could try to flip him to a playoff team for a future 2nd rounder.

That's a good point.

It will make even more sense if we find a way to dump Ish Smith, or use him as ballast in some other trade. A year from now, I'd be happy with a 3-guard rotation of Wall, Beal and Brown. A guy like Chiozza or Robinson could be an 10/11th man, taking PG minutes if there is foul trouble, injuries or garbage time. It would work out real well if we drafted a stud SF in the lottery:

3 Guard rotation: Wall, Beal, Brown
3 Wing rotation: Hachimura, Bertans, 2020 lotto pick SF
2 Centers: Bryant, free agent

Garbage time lineup/Emergency backups:
Chiozza, McRae, Schofield, Bonga, Wagner

Yeah, I think the hope is that one of these other guards break out and they can ditch Ish Smith before the start of next season.
Wall will ideally be on a permanent load management program as his career moves forward, so we need 2 other legit PGs who are better than your average backups since they may have to step in and play starters minutes at least 15-20x a season.

FYI I know it's early for draft talk, but I can tell you that the 2020 lottery is not likely to yield a quality small forward. The only blue chip wing prospect is Scottie Lewis , and he has significant questions about bball IQ and offensive skillset that I think would turn the Wizards off from drafting him. So to me, Troy Brown is the clubhouse favorite to be our starting SF for at least the next 2 seasons.

If I had to guess, the Wizards will come away from that draft with either Deni Advija (an NBA PF) or one of the combo guard prospects.Players like LaMelo Ball , Anthony Edwards, RJ Hampton would probably be classified as guards though they could certainly play minutes at SF in some lineups.
WallToWall
Rookie
Posts: 1,193
And1: 228
Joined: May 20, 2010
         

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#624 » by WallToWall » Tue Oct 22, 2019 12:09 am

Read on Twitter

Today's status.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#625 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 22, 2019 1:00 am

Ruzious wrote:
I_Like_Dirt wrote:The Bucks can call him up but they'll have to give him a 2-way contract. They already have their 2-ways set now with Mason III and Reynolds. They could cut one of those guys and try to re-sign them to a non-2-way and then offer a 2-way to Jones, I suppose, but as things are now, any team is going to be able to sign Jones if he shows well in the G league.

But yes, having a d league team operating to develop players in the system the team wants them to play is smart and actually does give the Bucks an advantage because Jones is going to be learning to play their system specifically. Likewise, the Wizards are going to have that advantage with their own guys. The thing is, with a lot of these kids, they all have potential regardless of what small stat sample size with different roles people want to try to make. Satoransky was dumped on so hard between when he was drafted and he finally played with the Wizards and it turned out he was actually a great draft pick and excellent player. Figuring out which players are going to learn, adapt and take instruction the best isn't necessarily something that will show up in the stats and it isn't an indictment of the players that don't make it but to the credit of the players that do.

Great post. :nod:

Was about to write the same thing, Ruz, when I saw you had already done so. Yes, thoughtful & insightful -- really nice!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#626 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:34 am

nate33 wrote:According to Sportrac, we have a payroll of $128.0M with a luxtax of $132.6M. That's $4.6M of luxtax room, and we have a $5M TPE from the Sato trade and $3.4M left on the Jason Smith TPE. We could cut Mahinmi at any time to generate a roster spot.

We have the flexibility to make a minor move or two at some point this season.

The short term move would be to cut Mahinmi and try and sign the best guy available from the waiver wire. But it might be more prudent to wait for a while and see if that flexibility allows us to buy a pick or prospect off of someone at some point in the season. You never know if a team decides they want to get under the luxtax or cap threshold, or if two teams need a third team to absorb a salary to make some big trade work.

Another option would be to trade Mahinmi for a useful player with a more expensive expiring contract. Tristan Thompson is about the only contract that makes sense, but Cleveland has no compelling need to try and save $3M in salary.

When will we hear about the exception we applied for? If we get that, we have room to add that waiver wire guy w/o cutting Mahinmi.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#627 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 22, 2019 2:46 am

I think we'll see some of this guy on the regular roster as well this year:
Read on Twitter
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
WallToWall
Rookie
Posts: 1,193
And1: 228
Joined: May 20, 2010
         

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#628 » by WallToWall » Tue Oct 22, 2019 4:42 am

https://www.nba.com/amp/wizards/wizards-announce-2019-20-opening-night-roster

Roster finalized. No surprises. Most things have already been discussed. It's pretty amazing how the roster overhaul has brought us so many young players. I didnt expect this much change going into this season, and I thought any overhaul would have been hard to accomplish. We may not have young players with high ceilings, aside from Riu, but we do have some that can make a difference and be role players. I look forward to seeing how they make the most of their opportunities.

We still have Mahinmi on the roster for at most one more year. I think he will end up playing about 15 games for us. I hope Wall takes the year off and takes the time to heal properly. His veteran leadership next year/season could make a difference. Looking forward to seeing how Beal makes this team his own.
Let's go Wizards!

Sent from my SM-G965U using RealGM mobile app
Wizardspride
RealGM
Posts: 11,652
And1: 5,477
Joined: Nov 05, 2004
Location: Olney, MD/Kailua/Kaneohe, HI
Contact:
       

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#629 » by Wizardspride » Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:38 pm

Read on Twitter
?s=19
McCabe explains that Trump believed Putin over US intel about NK missiles: "Intel officials [told Trump his position] was not consistent with any of the intel our govt possesses. To which POTUS replied, 'I don't care. I believe Putin.'"
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#630 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 22, 2019 3:49 pm

17 guys on that list (b/c early in the season you get some free use of your 2 way players).

11 of the 17 have 3 or fewer years of NBA experience. 9 of the 17 are either rookies or guys in their 2d year (I included Bryant in that group, given his non-minutes year 1). Those 11 total 11 total years of NBA experience!

If you leave out Mahinmi & Miles, b/c they are useless, & leave John out as well (b/c he is out), the other 14 guys have a total of 35 years of NBA experience -- an average of 2.5 years -- & Ish & IT account for almost half of those.

The other 12 guys, including Brad, have a grand total of 18 years experience.

The 9 least experienced players have a total of 5 years among them. But, that makes them sound more experienced than they are.

Those 9 guys have played a combined total of 2241 minutes. Add Bryant, & it's 10 with a total of 3809 minutes among them. Is there another team in the league that is in any way similar?

None of this is a surprise, obviously, but it's a "wow" all the same. Gonna be a wild ride!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#631 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 23, 2019 12:09 am

I'm just going to say one name: Dikembe Dixson. Do you know that name? Remember that name! Who is the person behind that name?

The Wiz signed Dixson to an Exhibit 10 contract middle of last week -- then they cut him within 1 hour of signing him! :) Tommy does this kind of thing to signal that he can move quickly, he's nimble, he's....

Nah, they signed/cut him in order to get a 60 day guarantee for the Gogo from the guy (for which he gets a $50K bonus -- how the Exhibit 10 deals work).

I'll say this, all the same. I don't believe a guy who is with you less than one hour should get his own thread, do you?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
Ruzious
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 38,464
And1: 5,495
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#632 » by Ruzious » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:01 pm

payitforward wrote:I'm just going to say one name: Dikembe Dixson. Do you know that name? Remember that name! Who is the person behind that name?

The Wiz signed Dixson to an Exhibit 10 contract middle of last week -- then they cut him within 1 hour of signing him! :) Tommy does this kind of thing to signal that he can move quickly, he's nimble, he's....

Nah, they signed/cut him in order to get a 60 day guarantee for the Gogo from the guy (for which he gets a $50K bonus -- how the Exhibit 10 deals work).

I'll say this, all the same. I don't believe a guy who is with you less than one hour should get his own thread, do you?

Bucks did the same with Jemerrio Jones and another player they like.

Not sure what the Wiz see in Dixson - other than his name. He was mediocre at best for a school I never heard of whos school nickname is the Flames. I can't imagine there was any competition to get him.
"Look, you never know when you may need to borrow a cup of sugar, maybe some milk or a handgun" - Dan C. from Texas
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,583
And1: 8,669
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#633 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 1:45 pm

payitforward wrote:17 guys on that list (b/c early in the season you get some free use of your 2 way players).

11 of the 17 have 3 or fewer years of NBA experience. 9 of the 17 are either rookies or guys in their 2d year (I included Bryant in that group, given his non-minutes year 1). Those 11 total 11 total years of NBA experience!

If you leave out Mahinmi & Miles, b/c they are useless, & leave John out as well (b/c he is out), the other 14 guys have a total of 35 years of NBA experience -- an average of 2.5 years -- & Ish & IT account for almost half of those.

The other 12 guys, including Brad, have a grand total of 18 years experience.

The 9 least experienced players have a total of 5 years among them. But, that makes them sound more experienced than they are.

Those 9 guys have played a combined total of 2241 minutes. Add Bryant, & it's 10 with a total of 3809 minutes among them. Is there another team in the league that is in any way similar?

None of this is a surprise, obviously, but it's a "wow" all the same. Gonna be a wild ride!

This is why all the experts are picking the Wizards to lose and lose big. I was driving for 14 hours over the last 2 days and heard a ton of NBA podcasts. EVERYONE is taking the under on the Wizards (the line is 26.5 wins). Bill Simmons, Ryen Russillo, Joe House, Nate Duncan, Danny Leroux, Fred Katz... everyone hates the Wizards.

Maybe they're right. But what reassures me a bit is that most of those young guys are going to be sub 400 minute guys, with the exception of Wagner. The actual, core 9-man rotation will feature only 3 young guys: Bryant, Hachimura and Brown. And Bryant is already a proven starter and I'm pretty sure Brown will be competent. The players around those guys are Beal, Bertans, Ish, McRae, Miles and IT. Even without Miles and IT (because they either suck or get hurt), that's still a 7-man rotation of legit NBA players who can hang with the top 7 of any average team, and it includes a star who is better than the best player on an average team.

I see the minute distribution like this:

Guards: Beal-34, Ish-30, McRae-24. That leaves 8 minutes for IT or young pups
Forwards: Brown-32, Hachimura-30, Bertans-26. That leaves 8 minutes for Miles or young pups
Center: Bryant-30. That leaves 18 minutes for Mahinmi or Wagner

So of the 240 minutes in an NBA game, we will field competent NBA players for at least 206 of them. (More if IT and/or Miles regain some semblance of their old form.) And those are averages. In close games, we lean on the starters more, while letting the bench soak up the garbage time minutes in blowouts. We won't be good, but I'm not buying the doom-and-gloom "worst in the league" vibe I'm hearing from the experts.
User avatar
dorianwrite
Pro Prospect
Posts: 897
And1: 73
Joined: Dec 15, 2001

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#634 » by dorianwrite » Wed Oct 23, 2019 5:51 pm

Sure, it was only pre-season, but the Wizards team I watched play those games was, win or lose, playing the right way: effort on defense (they just aren't that great at it), lots of purposeful passing, good hustle, playing within themselves, and with the exception of Ish Smith, everyone looked capable of regularly nailing an open 3. (It's kind of tragic that Wall is hurt right now, because there's finally a roster of players who could maximize his drive-and-kick talents. It took his getting hurt to assemble them.)

I believe that they aren't playoff bound, but they are not going to be bumbling losers, either. The prognosticators are looking at the names on the roster, but I'd guess they haven't watched one minute of the team's play, even though they went up against two major Eastern Conference teams in Milwaukee and Philadelphia.
DCZards
Head Coach
Posts: 7,486
And1: 1,984
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#635 » by DCZards » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:51 pm

dorianwrite wrote:Sure, it was only pre-season, but the Wizards team I watched play those games was, win or lose, playing the right way: effort on defense (they just aren't that great at it), lots of purposeful passing, good hustle, playing within themselves, and with the exception of Ish Smith, everyone looked capable of regularly nailing an open 3. (It's kind of tragic that Wall is hurt right now, because there's finally a roster of players who could maximize his drive-and-kick talents. It took his getting hurt to assemble them.)

I believe that they aren't playoff bound, but they are not going to be bumbling losers, either. The prognosticators are looking at the names on the roster, but I'd guess they haven't watched one minute of the team's play, even though they went up against two major Eastern Conference teams in Milwaukee and Philadelphia.


Yup...hustling, passing and playing the right way will help the Zards steal some wins against superior teams. As far as the names on the roster, it surprises me how many so-called NBA experts are sleeping on Bryant. A couple of them have been downright dismissive of TB. I'm going to enjoy watching him blow up over the next couple of years.

Bryant is going to be the poster boy for the benefits of hard work and effort.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,583
And1: 8,669
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#636 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 7:30 pm

DCZards wrote:
dorianwrite wrote:Sure, it was only pre-season, but the Wizards team I watched play those games was, win or lose, playing the right way: effort on defense (they just aren't that great at it), lots of purposeful passing, good hustle, playing within themselves, and with the exception of Ish Smith, everyone looked capable of regularly nailing an open 3. (It's kind of tragic that Wall is hurt right now, because there's finally a roster of players who could maximize his drive-and-kick talents. It took his getting hurt to assemble them.)

I believe that they aren't playoff bound, but they are not going to be bumbling losers, either. The prognosticators are looking at the names on the roster, but I'd guess they haven't watched one minute of the team's play, even though they went up against two major Eastern Conference teams in Milwaukee and Philadelphia.


Yup...hustling, passing and playing the right way will help the Zards steal some wins against superior teams. As far as the names on the roster, it surprises me how many so-called NBA experts are sleeping on Bryant. A couple of them have been downright dismissive of TB. I'm going to enjoy watching him blow up over the next couple of years.

Bryant is going to be the poster boy for the benefits of hard work and effort.

Agreed. They view Bryant as some project, not a legit starting center better than perhaps half the starting centers in the league.

Likewise, they view McRae as a G-League guy when he played like a legit 7th-man caliber talent last year (and so far this preseason). He looks rock solid to me as a 20-25 mpg bench player. I am not at all concerned when he is on the floor.

The question marks are Troy Brown and Hachimura. I'm cautiously optimistic that they can hold their own and play like legit NBA starters, but I could be wrong. If they do play well, then I say our top 7 guys can match up with any top 7 players of the bottom 10 teams in the East. And out top 7 guys should play about 215 of the 240 minutes in a game.

The biggest concern with the team is their vulnerability to injury. The cupboard is very bare outside of the top 7.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#637 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 23, 2019 8:53 pm

nate33 wrote:...I see the minute distribution like this:

Guards: Beal-34, Ish-30, McRae-24. That leaves 8 minutes for IT or young pups
Forwards: Brown-32, Hachimura-30, Bertans-26. That leaves 8 minutes for Miles or young pups
Center: Bryant-30. That leaves 18 minutes for Mahinmi or Wagner.

I don't know, nate.... You're projecting 2800 minutes for Beal. Only 7 guys played that many last year; & I'd a lot rather it was @2500. You are also projecting @2000 minutes for Jordan McRae, a guy who has played a total of 908 minutes -- in his entire career! Over 2600 minutes for Brown as well. & one hell of a lot minutes for Rui the rookie!

This is all pretty abstract obviously; so... who knows? But, personally, I'd like to see Bonga, Wagner, Schofield & Robinson get at least 1000 minutes each (maybe it would be better to say "have the opportunity to get 1000 minutes": they do have to exhibit some reasonable level of effectiveness on court!).

At PG, IT is the wild card -- if he can stay on the court & returns to form, that'll be great. OTOH, if IT isn't a factor, I hope to see opportunities for Bonga/Robinson/Chiozza. Why? B/c I'm not expecting Ish to be a lot better than at least 1 of the kids (though he could be -- but he'd have to return to his absolutely best career years, IMO).

Behind Beal, basically we only have McRae & Mathews (who's a 2 way player), so McRae almost has to play something approaching 1500 minutes -- despite what I just wrote above. But, I'm quite interested in seeing some of Mathews. That shot in pre-season....

At the 3, I'd like to see Brown play well enough to earn 2000 minutes. Barring injury I think he will. Alas, I think they're likely to play Miles a lot more than either you or I would like. :(

30 minutes a game, almost 2500 minutes, seems like a lot to expect of Rui as a rookie. I guess it's mostly about how fast/far he progresses. & Bertans will be the only other choice it seems -- so... they're both going to have to play a lot at the 4.

Nice to think that tonight we're going to get our first look at all this!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
nate33
Forum Mod - Wizards
Forum Mod - Wizards
Posts: 54,583
And1: 8,669
Joined: Oct 28, 2002

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#638 » by nate33 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 9:37 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:...I see the minute distribution like this:

Guards: Beal-34, Ish-30, McRae-24. That leaves 8 minutes for IT or young pups
Forwards: Brown-32, Hachimura-30, Bertans-26. That leaves 8 minutes for Miles or young pups
Center: Bryant-30. That leaves 18 minutes for Mahinmi or Wagner.

I don't know, nate.... You're projecting 2800 minutes for Beal. Only 7 guys played that many last year; & I'd a lot rather it was @2500. You are also projecting @2000 minutes for Jordan McRae, a guy who has played a total of 908 minutes -- in his entire career! Over 2600 minutes for Brown as well. & one hell of a lot minutes for Rui the rookie!

This is all pretty abstract obviously; so... who knows? But, personally, I'd like to see Bonga, Wagner, Schofield & Robinson get at least 1000 minutes each (maybe it would be better to say "have the opportunity to get 1000 minutes": they do have to exhibit some reasonable level of effectiveness on court!).

At PG, IT is the wild card -- if he can stay on the court & returns to form, that'll be great. OTOH, if IT isn't a factor, I hope to see opportunities for Bonga/Robinson/Chiozza. Why? B/c I'm not expecting Ish to be a lot better than at least 1 of the kids (though he could be -- but he'd have to return to his absolutely best career years, IMO).

Behind Beal, basically we only have McRae & Mathews (who's a 2 way player), so McRae almost has to play something approaching 1500 minutes -- despite what I just wrote above. But, I'm quite interested in seeing some of Mathews. That shot in pre-season....

At the 3, I'd like to see Brown play well enough to earn 2000 minutes. Barring injury I think he will. Alas, I think they're likely to play Miles a lot more than either you or I would like. :(

30 minutes a game, almost 2500 minutes, seems like a lot to expect of Rui as a rookie. I guess it's mostly about how fast/far he progresses. & Bertans will be the only other choice it seems -- so... they're both going to have to play a lot at the 4.

Nice to think that tonight we're going to get our first look at all this!

First of all, those minute totals are in a typical game that actually matters. There will be blowouts, plenty of them, in which the starters play 20-some minutes and the end of the bench comes in and plays 8 minutes. That will detract from your minutes totals without compromising my general point that most of the minutes that matter will be played by actual, legit, NBA-caliber players.

Also, those minute totals you state are assuming everyone stays healthy for 82 games. If Beal plays, say, 78 games, then it's 2650 minutes - which seems about right. That's less than any of his last 3 seasons.

I think McRae will be fine with 2000 minutes. He's played a lot of minutes in the G-League too. I honestly don't think it's any harder to play 2000 minutes than 800 minutes. 2000 minutes is only 24 minutes a night. I'm sure most players would prefer to play 24 rather than 10 minutes a night.

Miles may get more minutes than we want. Ultimately, they'll come from Brown and Rui, which may not be such an awful thing. As you say, rookies typically don't play 2500 minutes. If Rui plays 2200 minutes because Miles gets more, I'm okay with it.

Speaking of which, it's actually not that out of the ordinary for rookies to play heavy minutes. Last year 4 rookies played 2300 or more minutes. The year before, 5 rookies did. I'm expecting Rui to be maybe the 4th or 5th best rookie this year, so those minutes totals seem about right.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 12,435
And1: 3,876
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#639 » by payitforward » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:49 pm

May it be so, nate; may it be so. But, I also hope for the Bonga-Breakout, Robinson-Riot, Chiozza-Chiasmus, Hachimura-Heresy, Wagner-Willpower, Admiral-Admonition, & (above all) Mathews-Mayhem.

Mostly what I'm doing, however, is day-dreaming with my fingertips on this keyboard to pass the 45 minutes until the start of the season!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
long suffrin' boulez fan
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,570
And1: 1,772
Joined: Nov 18, 2005
Location: In EG's alternate realty
         

Re: Wizards 2019 Offseason Thread - Part 2 

Post#640 » by long suffrin' boulez fan » Fri Oct 25, 2019 12:38 am

Wiz denied the exception.

Could someone please explain why?

Wall is injured and out. Why wouldn’t that qualify?
In Rizzo we trust

Return to Washington Wizards