Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[Illmatic12]

The other angle is that John works out in Miami with David Alexander who’s claim to fame is being Dwyane Wade’s longtime trainer.

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/wizards/john-wall-back-training-just-four-months-after-surgery

Keep in mind that Wall’s injury was only a *partial* Achilles tear and he’s advancing much faster than a player who had a full rupture.

Wall’s Achilles’ injury has been described as not as severe as the one Kevin Durant suffered in the NBA Finals, according to a person with knowledge of the details

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/07/02/with-john-wall-possibly-missing-season-wizards-apply-disabled-player-exception/


I don’t think it’s a coincidence that as soon as it’s reported that John is ahead of schedule in his rehab and already progressed to jogging and light basketball workouts, all of a sudden we hear more about Miami being interested in “rehabilitating” him. They likely have people down there quietly gathering intel on his rehab and think he has a better chance of recovering , due to the less severe nature of his injury.

When people say that a 5x All-Star is “untradeable” because of his contract, just laugh because they clearly don’t understand the NBA or haven’t been following the league for that long.

There is no such thing as an untradeable star player. If Wall comes back with 80-90% of his game, you’re talking about a star guard who just turned 30yo. The Wiz will let Wall heal on company time, collect the insurance payout for this year, and when he returns they will be able to find a suitor and they will get better value than people think.

[DCZards]

There is no such thing as an untradeable star player. If Wall comes back with 80-90% of his game, you’re talking about a star guard who just turned 30yo. The Wiz will let Wall heal on company time, collect the insurance payout for this year, and when he returns they will be able to find a suitor and they will get better value than people think.

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him? He’d be that second star (along with Beal) that you need to build around.

Trading Wall at that point for unproven young players or assets would signal a total rebuild and would almost certainly have Beal looking for the exit ramp.

Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team with a nice combination of proven vets and youngsters.

[nate33]

There is no such thing as an untradeable star player. If Wall comes back with 80-90% of his game, you’re talking about a star guard who just turned 30yo. The Wiz will let Wall heal on company time, collect the insurance payout for this year, and when he returns they will be able to find a suitor and they will get better value than people think.

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him? He’d be that second star (along with Beal) that you need to build around.

Trading Wall at that point for unproven young players or assets would signal a total rebuild and would almost certainly have Beal looking for the exit ramp.

Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team with a nice combination of proven vets and youngsters.

Because by trading Wall, there would be enough cap room to sign Giannis in 2021 (or Kawhi, or Tatum).

[gambitx777]

I don't think you need to give up a pick to get rid of wall once he's playing again. I don't think the heat were asking for anything other than salary swaps last year when they called before he went down



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[payitforward]

There is no such thing as an untradeable star player. If Wall comes back with 80-90% of his game, you’re talking about a star guard who just turned 30yo. The Wiz will let Wall heal on company time, collect the insurance payout for this year, and when he returns they will be able to find a suitor and they will get better value than people think.

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him? He’d be that second star (along with Beal) that you need to build around.

Trading Wall at that point for unproven young players or assets would signal a total rebuild and would almost certainly have Beal looking for the exit ramp.

Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team with a nice combination of proven vets and youngsters.

Given that guys who are "healthy and playing well" are traded all the time -- in fact, few are the teams that want to trade for a guy who is injured and/or playing badly! -- there could be a perfectly acceptable answer to your question, Zards.

One possible reason for such a trade would be if the center of gravity of the team started to shift towards Bryant, Hachimura, Brown & whoever steps up strong from among the young'uns we've just taken on -- plus our picks from next year. Now... that's pretty speculative, obviously. But, it could go down that way. & if so, a healthy 30-year-old John Wall might well be traded -- though that's speculative too! But not out of the question.

For that matter, your observation that "Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team," even beyond the hopeful premise of Wall's return of a high level, is pretty speculative: we have no idea what kind of player Rui Hachimura will become. Ditto Brown -- & all the more so the still-unknown R1 pick next year.

As to "signal a total rebuild," we've got 4 guys on the team who'll play this year & also played last year. 1 hasn't yet played quite 1500 minutes as a Wizard. 1 is our 2018 R1 pick (who played 730 minutes as a rookie last year). 1, Mahinmi, is just riding out his last year. The 4th is Brad.

I guess it's only "total" if all 15 guys are replaced. But... 10-11 new players plus 2 in their 2d year on the team -- I'd say that's knocking on the door, wouldn't you?!

[DCZards]

There is no such thing as an untradeable star player. If Wall comes back with 80-90% of his game, you’re talking about a star guard who just turned 30yo. The Wiz will let Wall heal on company time, collect the insurance payout for this year, and when he returns they will be able to find a suitor and they will get better value than people think.

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him? He’d be that second star (along with Beal) that you need to build around.

Trading Wall at that point for unproven young players or assets would signal a total rebuild and would almost certainly have Beal looking for the exit ramp.

Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team with a nice combination of proven vets and youngsters.

Because by trading Wall, there would be enough cap room to sign Giannis in 2021 (or Kawhi, or Tatum).

That’s wishful thinking. Cap space is overrated. Just ask Knicks fans.

An all-NBA player like Giannis or Kawhi ain’t coming to DC in their prime unless the Zards become a very good team with championship potential.

And that’s only going to happen if Wall fully comes back or Rui and Bryant both become all-stars or above average players.

[payitforward]

...Cap space is overrated. Just ask Knicks fans....

Still, "a fool & his gold are soon parted" doesn't mean that the value of gold is "overrated."

(It does mean that the abilities of most NBA FO people is overrated, however)

[doclinkin]

...Cap space is overrated. Just ask Knicks fans....

Still, "a fool & his gold are soon parted" doesn't mean that the value of gold is "overrated."

(It does mean that the abilities of most NBA FO people is overrated, however)

Hell ask Wizards fans. Ask Durant. Ask Horford.

[payitforward]

Cap space is overrated if you p#ss it away (sign Mahinmi, Nicholson, etc....).

A delicious bowl of crab soup is also overrated if you p#ss in it before sitting down to lunch.

[nate33]

If Wall is healthy and playing well why would you trade him? He’d be that second star (along with Beal) that you need to build around.

Trading Wall at that point for unproven young players or assets would signal a total rebuild and would almost certainly have Beal looking for the exit ramp.

Beal, Wall, Bryant, Hachimura, Brown and a 2020 lottery pick has the makings of a pretty good team with a nice combination of proven vets and youngsters.

Because by trading Wall, there would be enough cap room to sign Giannis in 2021 (or Kawhi, or Tatum).

That’s wishful thinking. Cap space is overrated. Just ask Knicks fans.

An all-NBA player like Giannis or Kawhi ain’t coming to DC in their prime unless the Zards become a very good team with championship potential.

And that’s only going to happen if Wall fully comes back or Rui and Bryant both become all-stars or above average players.

Wall, although a very good player, is a bit overrated. Even if he comes back to 100% of his former self, he's not worth a supermax contract. Dumping his contract by 2021 (if it could be done painfully) will give us an additional $43M in cap room. I'm confident that Sheppard can put that $43M to use in a much more cost effective manner.

[dckingsfan]

Because by trading Wall, there would be enough cap room to sign Giannis in 2021 (or Kawhi, or Tatum).

That’s wishful thinking. Cap space is overrated. Just ask Knicks fans.

An all-NBA player like Giannis or Kawhi ain’t coming to DC in their prime unless the Zards become a very good team with championship potential.

And that’s only going to happen if Wall fully comes back or Rui and Bryant both become all-stars or above average players.

Wall, although a very good player, is a bit overrated. Even if he comes back to 100% of his former self, he's not worth a supermax contract. Dumping his contract by 2021 (if it could be done painfully) will give us an additional $43M in cap room. I'm confident that Sheppard can put that $43M to use in a much more cost effective manner.

How much pain are you thinking? Like bamboo shoots under EGs fingernails?

[DCZards]

Cap space is overrated if you p#ss it away (sign Mahinmi, Nicholson, etc....).

A delicious bowl of crab soup is also overrated if you p#ss in it before sitting down to lunch.

Cap space is also overrated if the player(s) you are targeting has no interest in your team or your money...that's a lesson that several NBA teams have learned in recent years.

[DCZards]

Wall, although a very good player, is a bit overrated. Even if he comes back to 100% of his former self, he's not worth a supermax contract. Dumping his contract by 2021 (if it could be done painfully) will give us an additional $43M in cap room. I'm confident that Sheppard can put that $43M to use in a much more cost effective manner.

You’re right on both counts—Wall is a bit overrated and his supermax contract is a major overpay, which no one would dispute.

Question is what are you going to get with the money that’s freed up if you unload JW’s contract. If the Zards have a realistic shot at signing a top player like a Giannis or a Kawhi then I’m with you. But if that money ends up simply being used to sign 2-3 good or decent players then I’m not on board.

Even an overrated, overpaid Wall has the capability of being a legit difference maker on both ends of the court when healthy. I'm guessing Pat Riley knows that and that's why Wall is reportedly on his radar screen.

[montestewart]

Cap space is overrated if you p#ss it away (sign Mahinmi, Nicholson, etc....).

A delicious bowl of crab soup is also overrated if you p#ss in it before sitting down to lunch.

Cap space is also overrated if the player(s) you are targeting has no interest in your team or your money...that's a lesson that several NBA teams have learned in recent years.

I agree with both of you on this, but want to distinguish cap space that is set aside with the hopes of signing a top tier free agent (like Durant as Plan A, Horford as Plan B, and Mahinmi as Plan C) and cap space management that allows a trade for a top tier player, with the hope that player might resign after succeeding with that team (Harden, Leonard, etc.), not to mention other profitable moves that can only be accomplished through cap space (taking an expiring and a pick for nothing, for example).

A big city media capital is not an automatically desirable destination (LA vs NY)
A warm weather city is not an automatically desirable destination (Miami vs Orlando)
A city with an NBA championship history is not an automatically desirable destination (LA vs Boston/Chicago)
A city with a rich basketball history is not an automatically desirable destination (Minneapolis, St. Louis, Rochester, Syracuse...)
A city that does not compete with other professional franchises for fan interest is not an automatically desirable destination (Boston/Philadelphia vs Orlando/New Orleans)

The primary thing that makes a city an automatically desirable destination is current, authentic contender status. That takes an excellent and balanced (age/skills/position) roster, a management team (including medical staff) that is both good and perceived as good by players, and good cap management that allows moves for improvement.

Combine those factors, players will see Washington as a destination. DC is not a small market town. By metropolitan area, it ranks 6th in the country; by combined statistical area (which incorporates Baltimore) it ranks 4th. Washington ranks 3rd as a media town after LA and NY. Washington is the Nation's Capital (could be a plus or a minus, I guess). What is missing is historical success, which implicates ownership and management, and recent on court success, which implicates near future success.

In some way, the biggest hurdle to overcome for the Wizards is Leonsis himself, because with EG gone, Leonsis is the only one left to explain why his team has failed for so long. True success, actual contender status, will overcome Abe, EG, Leonsis, Gungate, etc. Then Sheppard might resign the big names he trades for. Then Sheppard might just sign himself a big name FA.

Then, then, some of these crazy proposed trades and FA signings I read about, they just might work.

[payitforward]

Great post, Monte.

Single biggest issue: actually aiming to create a title contender, a team that can win a championship. As opposed to "make the playoffs & get hot at the right time," the perpetual Ernie mythology.

[payitforward]

...the biggest hurdle to overcome for the Wizards is Leonsis himself, ...the only one left to explain why his team has failed for so long. ...

Actually, there is no difficulty explaining that failure. When you spend your assets & get nothing for them, what other result can you expect but failure?

Ted/Ernie took the team down to its studs in the Spring of 2010.

Then we had 4 draft picks in 2010 -- 3 of them R1 picks. We got Wall, then we spent the other 3 of those assets & got absolutely nothing in return.

Then we had 3 draft picks in 2011 -- 2 of them R1 picks. We spent all 3 of those assets & got absolutely nothing in return.

Then we had 3 draft picks in 2012 -- we got Brad. Then we drafted Sato, whom we didn't see for 3 years. Then he played 4500 minutes for us, & we let him go -- getting nothing for him. The 3d pick we threw into the Okariza trade. Got nothing for it.

2 for 10 in three years.

Then we used 3 draft picks in 2013. Porter was traded for guys we didn't keep -- nothing for that asset. The other 2 picks were traded for a single pick which we used on Rice.

Make that 2 for 13 in 4 years.

We traded our R1 pick in 2014 for the expiring Marcin Gortat. He played 4 years for us, then we traded him for Austin Rivers whom we traded for nothing. In R2 we traded our pick for a little cash.

That's 2 for 15.

We traded our 2015 R1 pick plus 2 future R2 picks to move up & take Kelly Oubre whom we traded for an expiring contract, a player we didn't keep. In R2 that year we picked Aaron White who has not played & will never play an NBA game.

2 for 19

Our 2016 R1 pick & our 2017 picks in rounds 1 & 2 were traded for, in effect, nothing. In 2018 we picked Troy in R1 & a long shot in R2. Along the way we also traded at least 2 more future R2 picks in deals to get rid of someone or acquire a player we didn't keep.

3 for 25. What more is needed to explain our failure?

[Jamaaliver]

Wall, although a very good player, is a bit overrated...

Dumping his contract by 2021 (if it could be done painfully) will give us an additional $43M in cap room.

How much pain are you thinking? Like bamboo shoots under EGs fingernails?

Prolly Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng painful. Breaking up one horrid contract into two smaller, horrid contracts.

[Dat2U]

Wall, although a very good player, is a bit overrated...

Dumping his contract by 2021 (if it could be done painfully) will give us an additional $43M in cap room.

How much pain are you thinking? Like bamboo shoots under EGs fingernails?

Prolly Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng painful. Breaking up one horrid contract into two smaller, horrid contracts.

That's not painful, that's a death sentence.

At least there is video evidence of Wall once playing at a high level. With Wiggins, your paying max dollars for replacement level play. That's just ghastly! I don't give a damn about his youthfulness, a scrub is a scrub at any age.

I wouldn't take on Wiggins under any circumstance. His deal IMO is the worst in the league based on $$$ vs on-court usefulness.

[Jamaaliver]

How much pain are you thinking? Like bamboo shoots under EGs fingernails?

Prolly Andrew Wiggins and Gorgui Dieng painful. Breaking up one horrid contract into two smaller, horrid contracts.

That's not painful, that's a death sentence.

At least there is video evidence of Wall once playing at a high level. With Wiggins, your paying max dollars for replacement level play. That's just ghastly! I don't give a damn about his youthfulness, a scrub is a scrub at any age.

I wouldn't take on Wiggins under any circumstance. His deal IMO is the worst in the league based on $$$ vs on-court usefulness.

You're not wrong. So maybe Wiz could get some draft compensation for their troubles.



I do believe Wiggins is tradeable down the line. He's just now approaching his prime and is a career 19 ppg scorer. Also, he lacks the baggage Wall carries at this point in his career.

But I understand the sentiment.

[nate33]

Question is what are you going to get with the money that’s freed up if you unload JW’s contract. If the Zards have a realistic shot at signing a top player like a Giannis or a Kawhi then I’m with you. But if that money ends up simply being used to sign 2-3 good or decent players then I’m not on board.

Even an overrated, overpaid Wall has the capability of being a legit difference maker on both ends of the court when healthy. I'm guessing Pat Riley knows that and that's why Wall is reportedly on his radar screen.

See, that's where I disagree. For the price of Wall, you could get 2 or 3 pretty darn good players who are likely to be younger and more durable.

For the price of Wall, you could have had D'Angelo Russell and Jeremy Lamb.
For the price of Wall, you could have had Malcolm Brogdon and Bojan Bogdanovic
For the price of Wall, you could have had Tomas Satoransky, Thad Young, Kevon Looney, Maurice Harkless and the Miami 2023 lotto protected 1st.