payitforward wrote:But, this has nothing to do with your claim about Vassell & Bey vs. Oturu & Tillman. You were cherry-picking, & you know it! Why didn't you include Wiseman & Okongwu on your list of bigs? Bane, Bolmaro & Maxey among the "smalls?"
I could see how that looks a bit cherry picked. I guess I should preface the fact that high end 1 & done prospects are a little more evenly dispersed..
if I let you shuffle a deck of cards as many times as you want, you can get it to come out the way you predicted it would!
pcbothwel wrote:It appears the simple question becomes: Can player X defend any position other than the 5 for 20+MPG? If no, does this player project to be Elite defensively and/or a 20/10 Center with plus defense? If no… then you will fall. I would say the centers you mentioned (Aytons, JJ, Bamba) along KAT, Okafor, etc. fall into this group...
Fall into which group? The variously-defined good group? You can't mean that. But all these guys were high picks.
The real problem you have is that you'd like to be talking about the actual value of players, but you are forced in context to talk about where they are picked. But, where they are picked doesn't correspond to how good they are (or turn out to be). Thus, it's hard to see how there's any point you can establish out of this data, which doesn't itself reflect any kind of excellence with much statistical correlation.
Thus, for example, I could argue that if what you mean to be talking about is how GMs view the value of particular position, then that may explain why Mario Hezonja gets picked high (by no means where you'd like to take your argument!) but it doesn't do much else. Even staying on the best end of the spectrum: what explains Anthony Bennett going #1? Thomas Robinson going #5,
pcbothwel wrote:But Im talking about the rotational players that most even minded folks believe will play for 5-7 years and have the upside of being a 4th option. Most of these guys are not freshman, and many not even sophomores.
I choose Vassell & Bey as they fall into this category, but let’s look at other drafts:
2019: Cam Johnson was a 23 y/o Sr. that appeared to have a ceiling as a rotational 3-point shooter with mediocre defense…. And he was taken 13. While an unequivocally more productive, and far younger player in Bruno Fernando was taken at 34.
2018: Mikal Bridges (10), Jerome Robinson (13), Grayson Allen (21), Chandler Hutchinson (22)… all taken above a clearly better player in Robert Williams (Mitchell Robinson too)...
Again, what you are proving here is that GMs do a highly imperfect (i.e. crappy) job of sequencing picks by actual quality as demonstrated in results. We have no argument about that. Even the fact that Cam Johnson was far more productive in the range of his position than Fernando was in his makes no difference. & it's true across all positions. In 2012, Dion Waiters & Thomas Robinson -- a ouple of bums -- went #4 & 5. Will Barton went #40. Draymond went #35.
As to 2018, PF Gary Clark wasn't even drafted, but he's been way more productive than any number of wings taken in R1, including Robinson in the lottery. Yet, Isaac Bonga, a wing taken well into R2, has been much more productive than some 4s & 5s taken in R1 -- high in R1.
payitforward wrote:Rui Hachimura is not a "wing/3/4 prospect," he's a PF. So when you compare him with Mo Bamba, you are comparing a 4 & a 5.
Ummm… No. Bamba is a 5...
Yes, that's what I meant -- you are comparing a 4 (Rui) and a 5 (Bamba). There's no "wing/3/4 prospect" involved, so none of your points about the supposed extra value of a wing over a big has any bearing. Sorry if that wasn't clear.
pcbothwel wrote:Rui, OTOH, has played approximately 3/4th of his minutes at PF, and the other 1/4th at SF, with some spot minutes as a small ball 5. Hell, I’d even say you will see more minutes with him at the 3 as he tightens up his handle and extends his range. Now, I agree his best position is a 4, but he can guard the 3 & 5 depending on the lineup (Yes… I’m well aware his defense is not good atm, but there is no drop off from him guarding a PF to a traditional wing player.
No way, sorry. Rui may have played some spot minutes at the 3 & the 5, but he certainly did not play 1/4 of his time at the 3. Or 1/10th of his time at the 3 for that matter.
&, smart guy that you are, you are perfectly aware that what you say about defense is... indefensible. Bad at guarding the 4 doesn't mean we can claim he's equal defensively against 2 positions!
payitforward wrote:Not to mention that his having gone #9 in the draft & Bamba #6 straight out contradicts your point anyway!
This goes to my point above… Does he displace Thomas Bryant… because he isn’t better than him ATM while being the same age, and neither can play/defend the 4. If we had a glaring hole at Center and they both had 3 years left… different answer maybe. Also, you of all people should know that draft position means nothing after 2 year in the league. Bamba was projected to be Rudy Gobert with a 3 point shot, and while he blocks shots, his overall IQ seems to be an issue (Hassan Whiteside 2.0?)
Where did I say that I wanted to acquire Mo Bamba? You may search, but you will not find. What I said was that Bamba & Rui have about the same trade value.
As to your rush to judgment on the kid, I remind you that he has played all of 200 more minutes than Rui & is younger than Rui. You don't want to pronounce final judgement on Rui, do you? I don't. Ditto Bamba. As I wrote -- these guys are both projects.
pcbothwel wrote:Overall, this is a good discussion and I like our back and forths.
I hope Zards reads the above sentence -- & it would be nice if you acknowledge it too, Zards. Not b/c I'm perfect, but b/c I will feel relieved if you do.
pcbothwel wrote:I’ll close with this years draft. Yes, Okongwu is projected top 10, but still below Edwards and Ball who at the same age, have produced far less on both ends of the court.
Wiseman: Lets see how this draft shakes out, but he has been closely followed for 2 years now as some generational big man like Ayton/David Robinson. Yet, many project him to be the one player who could surprisingly fall out of the top 5.
& this is meant to support a claim that if two equally good players are there at a given spot in the draft, one a wing & the other a big, the wing will go first?
You're kidding, right? It doesn't.
If the claim were true, then surely a better wing could not go below a less good big, right? But, it happens all the time -- can you spell Luka Doncic?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.