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Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1941 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:01 pm

nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:...Bamba for Rui straight up? ...If we need to include Mo Wagner - fine.

I don't like it. ...I don't know how many teams will trade quality assets for a project center.

?? What would make anyone think of Rui as a higher quality asset than Bamba?

As a rookie, Mo Bamba was no better or worse than Rui Hachimura. Then Bamba came back & improved a lot in his second year. I hope Rui will do the same -- but, of course, we'll have to wait before we know whether he does.

Bamba is actually about 5 months younger than Rui. Overall he's only played 200 more NBA minutes than Rui.

How is Rui more valuable than Bamba? Why is Bamba any more of a "project" than Rui?

TBH, both these young men are projects.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1942 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:10 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
nate33 wrote:I don't like it. If Orlando is going with Vucevic/Birch, then they can't afford to keep Bamba anyhow. They will look to trade him and I don't know how many teams will trade quality assets for a project center. Half-decent role-playing centers are a dime-a-dozen these days. Why sacrifice a high pick for Bamba if you can just grab Tristian Thompson or Nerlens Noel in free agency?

I'd probably trade the #9 and Wagner for Bamba and the #15, but that's about as much as I'd give up.


Same... I'd also throw in a swap of 2nds (37 for 45). If they wanted to save some money this year and open up more cap space next year, then I would take on Aminu's contract:

Ish, Robinson, 9 for Bamba, Aminu, 15

- But only if Okongwu and Haliburton are NOT there at 9.

yeah, kind of a decision tree... If you can land Noel - no need for the trade. If you can get a rim protector at 9 - no need for the trade.

If you can't and you don't think you will get a rim protector at 9 I would do the trade. But I think that Bamba will be better than Rui over time. If you could get Bamba for your trade above, I do that in a heartbeat and grab a PG at 9.

It would allow us to play our forwards with impunity on D (Bertans, Brown, Bonga). And I think Bamba would thrive next to Wall.

BTW, the Orlando board likes your proposal better than mine. They would rather do Ish, Robinson, 9 for Bamba, Aminu, 15.

That would be a good trade for us, IMO.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1943 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:17 pm

dckingsfan wrote:...If you can land Noel - no need for the trade (i.e. of Bamba for Rui -- pif). If you can get a rim protector at 9 - no need for the trade.

...I think that Bamba will be better than Rui over time. ...

Sorry, but we can't know that.

Equally, we can't know that Rui will be better than Bamba over time. Sorry.

Bamba has one edge over Rui: he came back his 2d year & improved significantly. A lot. That fact alone makes him a more valuable asset than Rui. It suffices to make a straight-up trade well worth pursuing.

Of course, we hope that Rui will do the same -- improve significantly in his 2d year. We hope, but we do not know.

If a person thinks he does know that, there's no rational discussion possible with that person. He has a crystal ball.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1944 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:20 pm

payitforward wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:...If you can land Noel - no need for the trade (i.e. of Bamba for Rui -- pif). If you can get a rim protector at 9 - no need for the trade.

(Opinion!)...I think that Bamba will be better than Rui over time. ...

Sorry, but we can't know that.

Equally, we can't know that Rui will be better than Bamba over time. Sorry.

Bamba has one edge over Rui: he came back his 2d year & improved significantly. A lot. That fact alone makes him a more valuable asset than Rui. It suffices to make a straight-up trade well worth pursuing.

Of course, we hope that Rui will do the same -- improve significantly in his 2d year. We hope, but we do not know.

If a person thinks he does know that, there's no rational discussion possible with that person. He has a crystal ball.

There - fixed it :D
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1945 » by pcbothwel » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:24 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:...Bamba for Rui straight up? ...If we need to include Mo Wagner - fine.

I don't like it. ...I don't know how many teams will trade quality assets for a project center.

?? What would make anyone think of Rui as a higher quality asset than Bamba?

As a rookie, Mo Bamba was no better or worse than Rui Hachimura. Then Bamba came back & improved a lot in his second year. I hope Rui will do the same -- but, of course, we'll have to wait before we know whether he does.

Bamba is actually about 5 months younger than Rui. Overall he's only played 200 more NBA minutes than Rui.

How is Rui more valuable than Bamba? Why is Bamba any more of a "project" than Rui?

TBH, both these young men are projects.


While I dont agree with Nate on the reasoning, I value Rui a bit higher.
Positional value... A rotation worthy wing/3/4 prospect like Vassell and Saddiq Bey are looked at in the 9-13 range of the draft while seemingly having the upside of 4th option on a good team.

Guys like Oturu, Stewart, Tillman, etc. are better players than those guys (More productive might be a better word) with about the same upside and are looked at in the late 20's to late 30's.
Even in FA... Tobias Harris signs a 5/180M deal, while the clearly better Vuc signs for almost half at 4/100M
Harrison Barnes signs 4/85M deal while the clearly better Valanciunas signs for almost half at 3/45M.

There is a good chance that Bamba ends up the better player, but an equally good chance that Rui ends up the more valuable one.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1946 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:08 pm

dckingsfan wrote:
nate33 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:But I think that Bamba will be better than Rui over time.

I don't, at least not while factoring positional scarcity.

I just don't see a possibility that Mo Bamba is a starting center who can stay on the floor in a playoff matchup against a decent smallball squad. Which ultimately means he can't help you win.

Hachimura has a much higher upside. It remains to be seen whether he can reach it, but he's got the perfect NBA body, solid athleticism, many NBA skills, and reportedly a high IQ and excellent work ethic. His main deficiency is not having a "feel" for the game. That, and a low arc on his shot that limits his range. I'm pretty confident the shot will improve. And if he develops a better feel for the game with experience, I think he can certainly be a quality starter on a good team - a guy with enough skill and versatility that he can't get played off the floor against certain matchups.

Yeah, I don't see Bamba being run off the floor in the long-term.

And with Rui and his defensive rebounding skills and rim protecting skills he has to have a rim protector behind him. So there is that...

Now both parties are using their crystal balls! :)

Here's what I think is some objective fact. Has nothing to do with "I like" one of these guys better than the other (no matter the pair):

1. There's no such thing as "positional scarcity." Or, if there is, it favors qualities that are scarce inherently -- height, for example.

2. The sun being out a bunch of days in a row is not a good reason to throw away your raincoat. If the way the game is played devaluess Centers, then we'll get worse players at that position. Whereupon a good Center will come along and dominate the game.

3. Telling a story doesn't prove a point: in '17-18 Milwaukee was mediocre, then they got Brook Lopez at Center & immediately became much better. Meanwhile, Houston traded Clint Capela & was a noticeably worse team the following year.

4. The more "perfect body" a statue has the more likely he is to jump off the plinth & go get you a soda. Actually, that's an example of the opposite of "objective fact." It's an example of what the mind can put together in abstractions & come up with 2 extended mental animated gifs, one in which Mo Bamba is played off the floor and another in which Rui Hachimura does all the things he doesn't do now, etc. etc. etc.

Of course, Rui may turn out to be an outstanding player -- that's possible. Mo Bamba may turn out to be an outstanding player -- also possible. Or, they may both fall way short of "outstanding." Nor are their fates joined.

But, if you compare the real Mo Bamba -- the one whom you observe in the real world with as much care as you can -- with the Rui Hachimura you see in your mind in a vision of the possible future, why... your conclusions are not such as one ought to act upon.

As to Rui, here's the thing: "can't shoot" & "lacks feel for the game" are not what anyone would call predictors of success in basketball. Moreover, a shot that "will improve" from awful (48.9% efg%) will still have a long, long way to go before it reaches average (55%). Then, from average, it still has a long way to go before it reaches the level of "a quality starter on a good team."

Both Rui & Bamba are guys who were picked high & then had crummy rookie seasons. That doesn't give you much trade value. Bamba came back & had a very good 2d season. His trade value went up some.

In that sense, Rui for Bamba would be a good trade. Doesn't mean it'd turn out that way. But, if you consistently make trades of that kind, then over time you will do well. OTOH, if you consistently make trades based on your vision of ways a guy you trade for might become way better than what he's shown, you might be right once in a while, but over time you will do badly.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1947 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:13 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:I don't like it. ...I don't know how many teams will trade quality assets for a project center.

?? What would make anyone think of Rui as a higher quality asset than Bamba?

As a rookie, Mo Bamba was no better or worse than Rui Hachimura. Then Bamba came back & improved a lot in his second year. I hope Rui will do the same -- but, of course, we'll have to wait before we know whether he does.

Bamba is actually about 5 months younger than Rui. Overall he's only played 200 more NBA minutes than Rui.

How is Rui more valuable than Bamba? Why is Bamba any more of a "project" than Rui?

TBH, both these young men are projects.


While I dont agree with Nate on the reasoning, I value Rui a bit higher.
Positional value... A rotation worthy wing/3/4 prospect like Vassell and Saddiq Bey are looked at in the 9-13 range of the draft while seemingly having the upside of 4th option on a good team.

Guys like Oturu, Stewart, Tillman, etc. are better players than those guys (More productive might be a better word) with about the same upside and are looked at in the late 20's to late 30's.
Even in FA... Tobias Harris signs a 5/180M deal, while the clearly better Vuc signs for almost half at 4/100M
Harrison Barnes signs 4/85M deal while the clearly better Valanciunas signs for almost half at 3/45M.

There is a good chance that Bamba ends up the better player, but an equally good chance that Rui ends up the more valuable one.

"More valuable" -- you seem to mean "richer."

Player A is a "better player... more productive" than player B, but player B is "more valuable" to his team.

Please explain what that statement can possibly mean.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1948 » by DCZards » Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:34 pm

PIF, why must you insist on belittling the “opinions” of other posters? It really is annoying...and detrimental to discourse.

You’re right, none of us has a crystal ball. But people are entitled to their opinions.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1949 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:11 pm

pcbothwel wrote:While I dont agree with Nate on the reasoning, I value Rui a bit higher.
Positional value... A rotation worthy wing/3/4 prospect like Vassell and Saddiq Bey are looked at in the 9-13 range of the draft while seemingly having the upside of 4th option on a good team.

Guys like Oturu, Stewart, Tillman, etc. are better players than those guys (More productive might be a better word) with about the same upside and are looked at in the late 20's to late 30's.

Raw productivity numbers in the box score (averages, ranges, etc.) vary from position to position & are highest for 4s & 5s -- largely b/c of rebounding numbers & (usually) significantly higher 2-pt.% (the latter for obvious reasons I hope).

Yet, teams need guys at all positions, so you have to sit down & run regressions on SAS that give you a formula which takes position into account in determining the value of a player. That way you can compare a particular SG & a particular C in the context of the draft.

For that reason, if I'm comparing 2 players based on their raw numbers, I have to compare guys at the same position. Or, I have to have knowledge of what the averages & ranges of productivity are for, say, a 3 & a 5 -- & compare the two guys not to each other but based on their productivity relative to others at their position. Thus Vassell is a considerably more productive for a SG than Oturu is for a Center.

But, this has nothing to do with your claim about Vassell & Bey vs. Oturu & Tillman. You were cherry-picking, & you know it! Why didn't you include Wiseman & Okongwu on your list of bigs? Bane, Bolmaro & Maxey among the "smalls?"

Worse yet, your point would not apply even if you hadn't been cherry picking! Rui Hachimura is not a "wing/3/4 prospect," he's a PF. So when you compare him with Mo Bamba, you are comparing a 4 & a 5.

Not to mention that his having gone #9 in the draft & Bamba #6 straight out contradicts your point anyway!

You "value Rui a bit higher" than Bamba. DCKingsfan thinks Bamba is better than Rui. Forgive me, but... so what? :) Neither of you is citing anything objective. You're both relying on... I don't know -- maybe "intuition" or that crystal ball that keeps being passed around?

Hachimura & Bamba are, in effect, the same age. They have played, in effect, the same number of NBA minutes. So far, neither of them has done anything at all to make anyone at all think he is going to be an outstanding player. If there's an edge it has to go to Bamba for having improved in his second season. But, that's what 900 minutes? It doesn't amount to much.

These two guys have more or less the same trade value. & it ain't exactly high, sorry. Things don't get a lot more obvious. Unless, of course, you're a Wizards fan. Or a Magic fan, I suppose.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1950 » by pcbothwel » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:00 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:
?? What would make anyone think of Rui as a higher quality asset than Bamba?

As a rookie, Mo Bamba was no better or worse than Rui Hachimura. Then Bamba came back & improved a lot in his second year. I hope Rui will do the same -- but, of course, we'll have to wait before we know whether he does.

Bamba is actually about 5 months younger than Rui. Overall he's only played 200 more NBA minutes than Rui.

How is Rui more valuable than Bamba? Why is Bamba any more of a "project" than Rui?

TBH, both these young men are projects.


While I dont agree with Nate on the reasoning, I value Rui a bit higher.
Positional value... A rotation worthy wing/3/4 prospect like Vassell and Saddiq Bey are looked at in the 9-13 range of the draft while seemingly having the upside of 4th option on a good team.

Guys like Oturu, Stewart, Tillman, etc. are better players than those guys (More productive might be a better word) with about the same upside and are looked at in the late 20's to late 30's.
Even in FA... Tobias Harris signs a 5/180M deal, while the clearly better Vuc signs for almost half at 4/100M
Harrison Barnes signs 4/85M deal while the clearly better Valanciunas signs for almost half at 3/45M.

There is a good chance that Bamba ends up the better player, but an equally good chance that Rui ends up the more valuable one.

"More valuable" -- you seem to mean "richer."

Player A is a "better player... more productive" than player B, but player B is "more valuable" to his team.

Please explain what that statement can possibly mean.


Not that hard... Jokic, Embiid, Gobert. Elite All-NBA players in their prime that can't even get to the conference finals.

2019: Raptors, Bucks, PDX, and Warriors... Over the hill & Journeymen bigs (Gasol, Lopez, Nurkic, Looney) with elite perimeter players
2018: Cavs, Celtics, Rockets, and Warriors... Thompson, Horford, Capela (But really PJ Tucker), Looney (But really Draymond)

Just look at the Blazers vs Nuggets series last year.
Jokic was a better offensive and defensive player than Lillard throughout the entire regular season and their series… and it wasn’t close.
In fact, Jamal Murray had a better overall series than Lillard, but lets just call it a wash. The best two players were arguably CJ McCollum and Jokic.
Jokic averaged 27 / 14 / 7 on a TS of 61%. CJ averaged 26 / 6 / 3 on a TS of 53%... Jokic also had more steals and double the blocks.
Again, by all accounts Jokic had a historically great. In fact, Jokic series against PDX was actually a little better than the AMAZING performance that Kawhi had against the Warriors on his way to Finals MVP.
Yet, he couldn’t get by the Blazers team with Enes Kanter at Center and an underwhelming Lillard scoring at Kieff levels of efficiency.

Point is, The greatest offensive Center of a generation (Jokic), greatest defensive Center of a generation (Gobert), and the highest ceiling two way Center of a generation (Embiid) are frequently made into accessories in the playoffs… and that doesn’t even get into Anthony Davis and KAT.
I mean, is there any doubt in your mind that Jokic is a better player than Donovan Mitchell? But would you trade Mitchell for Jokic?
What about Gobert and Devin Booker?
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1951 » by dckingsfan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 6:03 pm

When evaluating a trade there are a couple of things to consider: 1, 2 & 3) Raw numbers, 4) Current need and depth, 5) intuition on which set of players and picks will be more beneficial for your team.

When you do a 1 on 1 comparison of two players this will yield a view of the two players numbers, a view into the current need of the team and an "opinion" on which player will be better in the long-term both individually and in the context of the team you are assembling.

In the context of the trade I am proposing:
1) Bamba's numbers are better right now
2) Bamba has a better fit for the team in terms of what we need (rim protection and defensive rebounding)
3) And my opinion on which of the two players will be better in the long-term.

I don't trust my judgement on this more than other posters in the board BTW, just the opposite. And those that point out if we could get a FA instead of trading are right.

I think this is the general thinking of most GMs. For 2), if you already have 4 PGs, you probably aren't going to trade for another unless he is a superstar.

And for 3), pretty sure each GM slants their decision that way over time. But the more you can slant to 1&2 the better you will be in the long-term.

And then back to the Orlando board, they liked pcbothwel's trade better. Actually, what their board is really looking for is outside shooting.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1952 » by doclinkin » Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:59 pm

payitforward wrote:
There is a good chance that Bamba ends up the better player, but an equally good chance that Rui ends up the more valuable one.

"More valuable" -- you seem to mean "richer."

Player A is a "better player... more productive" than player B, but player B is "more valuable" to his team.

Please explain what that statement can possibly mean.


I'd say this. It is entirely possible a player who is less productive proves a better asset to the team that drafts him, in part because this is a business built in part on subjective opinion, even if it results in forensically clean stats after the fact. This is in part what you shake your cane at, shouting at the virtual birds in your bushes for making too much noise. That is this: Players who appear to be scorers, and who do so in ways that please the fanbase, will almost always earn more money than players who do more of the dirty work, and even paradoxically score more efficiently.

Earning more money has a measurable value, it quantifies the desirability of a player, a slippery quality that correlates to what they do on court, but has a great deal of noise in the data. How this relates in the wins and losses column though is thus: desirability and perception and dollar figures affect two key elements to team success: Fan engagement and Trade Value. The perception of a guy, how he plays or his future potential or the built in fanbase associated with either a high draft pick or overseas connections or even their charisma -- all of that can translate to the concept that one Hachimura is worth multiple potential Bambas. It is harder to find a would-be go-to scorer that has potential than it is to find a decent dirty work center. Even if the dirty work center is more efficient in their job. Stats are clinical, efficiency pleases them. Fan's are not, in fact they are the great unwashed, wholly unsanitary, so much so they have been banned from gathering together at this point.

Perception of value and it's imbalance creates opportunities. It is a market imbalance that can be exploited by clever folks. And it is one of the few areas where fans can have an actual effect. SO at this point I would entreat you to please stop peeing on any of our Hachimuras and equating them as sub-Bamba in whatever fashion. Your job as a fan is to inflate them to ultimate Hachimura level, while QUIETLY sussing out what is the greatest possible number or quality of Bambas we can reap in any imbalanced trade. And in fact, consider that the current level of Hachimurism may not in fact be the point of his greatest success or value, in the imbalanced trade sense, so if we were to swap him right now we might not get the best return on investment. Lets let him play a little more, and have a string of good games or at least highlights and empty stats before we swap him for a cluster of Bambas and picks. Ok?
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1953 » by pcbothwel » Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:43 pm

payitforward wrote:But, this has nothing to do with your claim about Vassell & Bey vs. Oturu & Tillman. You were cherry-picking, & you know it! Why didn't you include Wiseman & Okongwu on your list of bigs? Bane, Bolmaro & Maxey among the "smalls?"

I could see how that looks a bit cherry picked. I guess I should preface the fact that high end 1 & done prospects are a little more evenly dispersed, though I would still say two-way wings take the cake here with guards right there too.
It appears the simple question becomes: Can player X defend any position other than the 5 for 20+MPG? If no, does this player project to be Elite defensively and/or a 20/10 Center with plus defense? If no… then you will fall. I would say the centers you mentioned (Aytons, JJ, Bamba) along KAT, Okafor, etc. fall into this group

But Im talking about the rotational players that most even minded folks believe will play for 5-7 years and have the upside of being a 4th option. Most of these guys are not freshman, and many not even sophomores.
I choose Vassell & Bey as they fall into this category, but let’s look at other drafts:

2019: Cam Johnson was a 23 y/o Sr. that appeared to have a ceiling as a rotational 3-point shooter with mediocre defense…. And he was taken 13. While an unequivocally more productive, and far younger player in Bruno Fernando was taken at 34.
2018: Mikal Bridges (10), Jerome Robinson (13), Grayson Allen (21), Chandler Hutchinson (22)… all taken above a clearly better player in Robert Williams (Mitchell Robinson too)
2017: Justin Jackson & Kennard
2016: Buddy Hield, Prince, Valentine

payitforward wrote:Rui Hachimura is not a "wing/3/4 prospect," he's a PF. So when you compare him with Mo Bamba, you are comparing a 4 & a 5.

Ummm… No. Bamba is a 5. And any lineup with him on the court with another Center would be laughed at. Bamba has played almost 1,700 minutes over the last two years while Vucevic (Center only) has played 4,500… How many of those have they played together… ZERO… Because they CANT
Rui, OTOH, has played approximately 3/4th of his minutes at PF, and the other 1/4th at SF, with some spot minutes as a small ball 5. Hell, I’d even say you will see more minutes with him at the 3 as he tightens up his handle and extends his range. Now, I agree his best position is a 4, but he can guard the 3 & 5 depending on the lineup (Yes… I’m well aware his defense is not good atm, but there is no drop off from him guarding a PF to a traditional wing player.
payitforward wrote:Not to mention that his having gone #9 in the draft & Bamba #6 straight out contradicts your point anyway!

This goes to my point above… Does he displace Thomas Bryant… because he isn’t better than him ATM while being the same age, and neither can play/defend the 4. If we had a glaring hole at Center and they both had 3 years left… different answer maybe. Also, you of all people should know that draft position means nothing after 2 year in the league. Bamba was projected to be Rudy Gobert with a 3 point shot, and while he blocks shots, his overall IQ seems to be an issue (Hassan Whiteside 2.0?)

Overall, this is a good discussion and I like our back and forths. I’ll close with this years draft. Yes, Okongwu is projected top 10, but still below Edwards and Ball who at the same age, have produced far less on both ends of the court.
Wiseman: Lets see how this draft shakes out, but he has been closely followed for 2 years now as some generational big man like Ayton/David Robinson. Yet, many project him to be the one player who could surprisingly fall out of the top 5.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1954 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:24 pm

DCZards wrote:PIF, why must you insist on belittling the “opinions” of other posters? It really is annoying...and detrimental to discourse.

You’re right, none of us has a crystal ball. But people are entitled to their opinions.

Zards, let's ask pcbothwei if he felt I was "belittling" his opinions. If he did, then I'm going to apologize sincerely.

Of course, he, you, I, nate or anyone has a right to have an opinion -- more than a right, for that matter. Why participate at all if you don't have an opinion?

But, aren't we discussing subjects where it matters not only what an opinion is but also how it's arrived at, what the reasons are for the opinion? & can't those be discussed as well?

If one person says Rui for Bamba is a fair trade, & another says Rui for Bamba that's totally slanted towards Orlando... doesn't that offer something to talk about?I think it does, & it would seem that most people do -- that's why the discussion continues.

As to my holding a position too strongly -- maybe. OTOH, I'm also very willing to say it explicitly when I'm wrong. I was wrong about Brown, for example -- & I'm the one who brings up the fact.

I feel free to criticize pcbothwei's opinion, or nate's, or yours -- but I don't believe I've ever written anything about any of you (or anyone else here) that's a criticism of the person (i.e. rather than the opinion).

If I'm wrong about that, if I'm behaving as if I'm in a duel to the death rather than in a fencing match, then for sure I need to think again. Hell, I've gone back and forth with nate on this Board about things that are a whole lot more important than Mohamed Bamba & Rui Hachimura, & I'm pretty sure I've never allowed myself any kind of personal critique of nate.

So pcbothwei... did I belittle your opinions? Did I step beyond simply criticizing them & providing reasons for the critique & write something that was offensive to you in any way?
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1955 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:50 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:
There is a good chance that Bamba ends up the better player, but an equally good chance that Rui ends up the more valuable one.

"More valuable" -- you seem to mean "richer."

Player A is a "better player... more productive" than player B, but player B is "more valuable" to his team.

Please explain what that statement can possibly mean.


I'd say this. It is entirely possible a player who is less productive proves a better asset to the team that drafts him, in part because this is a business built in part on subjective opinion, even if it results in forensically clean stats after the fact. This is in part what you shake your cane at, shouting at the virtual birds in your bushes for making too much noise.

Hey, Zards: now, see, that's a personal remark from doc. It's mocking in tone, & it's ageist too. As it happens, Doc knows who I am, so he knows how old I am -- he probably even knows it's my birthday tomorrow! Guys, please donate to Biden in my name: esp. you, nate! :) But, actually, do I care? Am I mad at doc? No way!
doclinkin wrote:That is this: Players who appear to be scorers, and who do so in ways that please the fanbase, will almost always earn more money than players who do more of the dirty work, and even paradoxically score more efficiently.

Earning more money has a measurable value, it quantifies the desirability of a player, a slippery quality that correlates to what they do on court, but has a great deal of noise in the data. How this relates in the wins and losses column though is thus: desirability and perception and dollar figures affect two key elements to team success: Fan engagement and Trade Value. The perception of a guy, how he plays or his future potential or the built in fanbase associated with either a high draft pick or overseas connections or even their charisma -- all of that can translate to the concept that one Hachimura is worth multiple potential Bambas. It is harder to find a would-be go-to scorer that has potential than it is to find a decent dirty work center. Even if the dirty work center is more efficient in their job. Stats are clinical, efficiency pleases them. Fan's are not, in fact they are the great unwashed, wholly unsanitary, so much so they have been banned from gathering together at this point.

Perception of value and it's imbalance creates opportunities. It is a market imbalance that can be exploited by clever folks. And it is one of the few areas where fans can have an actual effect. SO at this point I would entreat you to please stop peeing on any of our Hachimuras and equating them as sub-Bamba in whatever fashion. Your job as a fan is to inflate them to ultimate Hachimura level, while QUIETLY sussing out what is the greatest possible number or quality of Bambas we can reap in any imbalanced trade. And in fact, consider that the current level of Hachimurism may not in fact be the point of his greatest success or value, in the imbalanced trade sense, so if we were to swap him right now we might not get the best return on investment. Lets let him play a little more, and have a string of good games or at least highlights and empty stats before we swap him for a cluster of Bambas and picks. Ok?

I have no problem with anything you write here, doc. Basketball is competition, but basketball is also entertainment. Scorers are entertaining. So, when you give Tobias Harris $180m & he scores a lot, the fans are entertained. Perhaps they won't notice that he makes your team worse, means you lose more games rather than win more.

But the games themselves are decided by stats; games are, as you say, clinical. &, if not immediately, then long-term the real key to fan engagement is putting a good team on the court. See the end of this post.

To clarify, however, I didn't criticize Rui. I didn't say Bamba was better than Rui. & I didn't suggest trading Rui for Bamba. It was dckingsfan who said he was "for" it & suggested that I would be as well. The idea had never occurred to me.

In the end, of course, I would be happy to trade Hachimura or any other Wizard(s) if the trade helped us towards the goal of being a good team, one that at least contends for the Eastern Conference title.

& if we did that, btw, "fan engagement" would be no problem whatever.

IOW, doc, your analysis omits the most important characteristics of fans: they are fickle. & they like winners. Trade a fan favorite, they'll lament. But, if it makes the team competitive, they'll forget the guy. In fact -- as I am sure you know -- after a brief time they'll forget that they were against trading the guy, & soon after that they'll have rearranged their memories to tell them that, after all, they were the ones who wanted the team to move him! :)
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1956 » by Ruzious » Fri Sep 11, 2020 10:11 pm

Happy Birthday in advance Pif - from me, Big John, and Sparky.

Fans are fickle? Tell me about. There's a long thread in the Bucks forum for fans who want to replace Budenholzer. Sheesh.
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1957 » by payitforward » Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:38 pm

Thanks, Ruz.

I just want to say that there are at least a dozen, maybe as many as 2 dozen, of you all posting here whom I look forward to reading.

When I head over here it's always with an active interest in what I'll find from all of you. Of course, the sparring is welcome -- its own kind of fun -- but there's usually plenty to learn as well!

That's pretty funny about Bucks fans wanting to oust Budenholzer! Happy to trade Brooks for the guy. Straight up too. They don't have to include any assistant coaches or anything! :)
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1958 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:56 pm

dckingsfan wrote:When evaluating a trade there are a couple of things to consider: 1, 2 & 3) Raw numbers, 4) Current need and depth, 5) intuition on which set of players and picks will be more beneficial for your team.

When you do a 1 on 1 comparison of two players this will yield a view of the two players numbers, a view into the current need of the team and an "opinion" on which player will be better in the long-term both individually and in the context of the team you are assembling.

In the context of the trade I am proposing:
1) Bamba's numbers are better right now
2) Bamba has a better fit for the team in terms of what we need (rim protection and defensive rebounding)
3) And my opinion on which of the two players will be better in the long-term.

I don't trust my judgement on this more than other posters in the board BTW, just the opposite. And those that point out if we could get a FA instead of trading are right.

I think this is the general thinking of most GMs. For 2), if you already have 4 PGs, you probably aren't going to trade for another unless he is a superstar.

And for 3), pretty sure each GM slants their decision that way over time. But the more you can slant to 1&2 the better you will be in the long-term.

And then back to the Orlando board, they liked pcbothwel's trade better. Actually, what their board is really looking for is outside shooting.


I would trade Rui Hachimura for Mo Bamba because I believe Bryant can play some PF. Bamba is exactly what the Wizards lack at C, a defender and rim protector.
2020 Wizards SHOULD Draft:

(Unless they move up in the top to draft Wiseman/Okongwu)

JALEN SMITH and either Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, Udoka Azubuike, or TYLER BEY (if they get lucky and he slips in the draft).
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1959 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sat Sep 12, 2020 8:02 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:But, this has nothing to do with your claim about Vassell & Bey vs. Oturu & Tillman. You were cherry-picking, & you know it! Why didn't you include Wiseman & Okongwu on your list of bigs? Bane, Bolmaro & Maxey among the "smalls?"

I could see how that looks a bit cherry picked. I guess I should preface the fact that high end 1 & done prospects are a little more evenly dispersed, though I would still say two-way wings take the cake here with guards right there too.
It appears the simple question becomes: Can player X defend any position other than the 5 for 20+MPG? If no, does this player project to be Elite defensively and/or a 20/10 Center with plus defense? If no… then you will fall. I would say the centers you mentioned (Aytons, JJ, Bamba) along KAT, Okafor, etc. fall into this group

But Im talking about the rotational players that most even minded folks believe will play for 5-7 years and have the upside of being a 4th option. Most of these guys are not freshman, and many not even sophomores.
I choose Vassell & Bey as they fall into this category, but let’s look at other drafts:

2019: Cam Johnson was a 23 y/o Sr. that appeared to have a ceiling as a rotational 3-point shooter with mediocre defense…. And he was taken 13. While an unequivocally more productive, and far younger player in Bruno Fernando was taken at 34.
2018: Mikal Bridges (10), Jerome Robinson (13), Grayson Allen (21), Chandler Hutchinson (22)… all taken above a clearly better player in Robert Williams (Mitchell Robinson too)
2017: Justin Jackson & Kennard
2016: Buddy Hield, Prince, Valentine

payitforward wrote:Rui Hachimura is not a "wing/3/4 prospect," he's a PF. So when you compare him with Mo Bamba, you are comparing a 4 & a 5.

Ummm… No. Bamba is a 5. And any lineup with him on the court with another Center would be laughed at. Bamba has played almost 1,700 minutes over the last two years while Vucevic (Center only) has played 4,500… How many of those have they played together… ZERO… Because they CANT
Rui, OTOH, has played approximately 3/4th of his minutes at PF, and the other 1/4th at SF, with some spot minutes as a small ball 5. Hell, I’d even say you will see more minutes with him at the 3 as he tightens up his handle and extends his range. Now, I agree his best position is a 4, but he can guard the 3 & 5 depending on the lineup (Yes… I’m well aware his defense is not good atm, but there is no drop off from him guarding a PF to a traditional wing player.
payitforward wrote:Not to mention that his having gone #9 in the draft & Bamba #6 straight out contradicts your point anyway!

This goes to my point above… Does he displace Thomas Bryant… because he isn’t better than him ATM while being the same age, and neither can play/defend the 4. If we had a glaring hole at Center and they both had 3 years left… different answer maybe. Also, you of all people should know that draft position means nothing after 2 year in the league. Bamba was projected to be Rudy Gobert with a 3 point shot, and while he blocks shots, his overall IQ seems to be an issue (Hassan Whiteside 2.0?)

Overall, this is a good discussion and I like our back and forths. I’ll close with this years draft. Yes, Okongwu is projected top 10, but still below Edwards and Ball who at the same age, have produced far less on both ends of the court.
Wiseman: Lets see how this draft shakes out, but he has been closely followed for 2 years now as some generational big man like Ayton/David Robinson. Yet, many project him to be the one player who could surprisingly fall out of the top 5.


As much as I want the wizards to draft Jalen Smith I have to say I think Okongwu projects into All Star and perhaps All NBA based on his physique, athleticism, and youth.
2020 Wizards SHOULD Draft:

(Unless they move up in the top to draft Wiseman/Okongwu)

JALEN SMITH and either Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, Udoka Azubuike, or TYLER BEY (if they get lucky and he slips in the draft).
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Re: Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII 

Post#1960 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:55 am

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:But, this has nothing to do with your claim about Vassell & Bey vs. Oturu & Tillman. You were cherry-picking, & you know it! Why didn't you include Wiseman & Okongwu on your list of bigs? Bane, Bolmaro & Maxey among the "smalls?"

I could see how that looks a bit cherry picked. I guess I should preface the fact that high end 1 & done prospects are a little more evenly dispersed..

:) if I let you shuffle a deck of cards as many times as you want, you can get it to come out the way you predicted it would!

pcbothwel wrote:It appears the simple question becomes: Can player X defend any position other than the 5 for 20+MPG? If no, does this player project to be Elite defensively and/or a 20/10 Center with plus defense? If no… then you will fall. I would say the centers you mentioned (Aytons, JJ, Bamba) along KAT, Okafor, etc. fall into this group...

Fall into which group? The variously-defined good group? You can't mean that. But all these guys were high picks.

The real problem you have is that you'd like to be talking about the actual value of players, but you are forced in context to talk about where they are picked. But, where they are picked doesn't correspond to how good they are (or turn out to be). Thus, it's hard to see how there's any point you can establish out of this data, which doesn't itself reflect any kind of excellence with much statistical correlation.

Thus, for example, I could argue that if what you mean to be talking about is how GMs view the value of particular position, then that may explain why Mario Hezonja gets picked high (by no means where you'd like to take your argument!) but it doesn't do much else. Even staying on the best end of the spectrum: what explains Anthony Bennett going #1? Thomas Robinson going #5,

pcbothwel wrote:But Im talking about the rotational players that most even minded folks believe will play for 5-7 years and have the upside of being a 4th option. Most of these guys are not freshman, and many not even sophomores.
I choose Vassell & Bey as they fall into this category, but let’s look at other drafts:

2019: Cam Johnson was a 23 y/o Sr. that appeared to have a ceiling as a rotational 3-point shooter with mediocre defense…. And he was taken 13. While an unequivocally more productive, and far younger player in Bruno Fernando was taken at 34.
2018: Mikal Bridges (10), Jerome Robinson (13), Grayson Allen (21), Chandler Hutchinson (22)… all taken above a clearly better player in Robert Williams (Mitchell Robinson too)...

Again, what you are proving here is that GMs do a highly imperfect (i.e. crappy) job of sequencing picks by actual quality as demonstrated in results. We have no argument about that. Even the fact that Cam Johnson was far more productive in the range of his position than Fernando was in his makes no difference. & it's true across all positions. In 2012, Dion Waiters & Thomas Robinson -- a ouple of bums -- went #4 & 5. Will Barton went #40. Draymond went #35.

As to 2018, PF Gary Clark wasn't even drafted, but he's been way more productive than any number of wings taken in R1, including Robinson in the lottery. Yet, Isaac Bonga, a wing taken well into R2, has been much more productive than some 4s & 5s taken in R1 -- high in R1.

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Rui Hachimura is not a "wing/3/4 prospect," he's a PF. So when you compare him with Mo Bamba, you are comparing a 4 & a 5.

Ummm… No. Bamba is a 5...

Yes, that's what I meant -- you are comparing a 4 (Rui) and a 5 (Bamba). There's no "wing/3/4 prospect" involved, so none of your points about the supposed extra value of a wing over a big has any bearing. Sorry if that wasn't clear.

pcbothwel wrote:Rui, OTOH, has played approximately 3/4th of his minutes at PF, and the other 1/4th at SF, with some spot minutes as a small ball 5. Hell, I’d even say you will see more minutes with him at the 3 as he tightens up his handle and extends his range. Now, I agree his best position is a 4, but he can guard the 3 & 5 depending on the lineup (Yes… I’m well aware his defense is not good atm, but there is no drop off from him guarding a PF to a traditional wing player.

No way, sorry. Rui may have played some spot minutes at the 3 & the 5, but he certainly did not play 1/4 of his time at the 3. Or 1/10th of his time at the 3 for that matter.

&, smart guy that you are, you are perfectly aware that what you say about defense is... indefensible. Bad at guarding the 4 doesn't mean we can claim he's equal defensively against 2 positions! :)

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not to mention that his having gone #9 in the draft & Bamba #6 straight out contradicts your point anyway!

This goes to my point above… Does he displace Thomas Bryant… because he isn’t better than him ATM while being the same age, and neither can play/defend the 4. If we had a glaring hole at Center and they both had 3 years left… different answer maybe. Also, you of all people should know that draft position means nothing after 2 year in the league. Bamba was projected to be Rudy Gobert with a 3 point shot, and while he blocks shots, his overall IQ seems to be an issue (Hassan Whiteside 2.0?)

Where did I say that I wanted to acquire Mo Bamba? You may search, but you will not find. What I said was that Bamba & Rui have about the same trade value.

As to your rush to judgment on the kid, I remind you that he has played all of 200 more minutes than Rui & is younger than Rui. You don't want to pronounce final judgement on Rui, do you? I don't. Ditto Bamba. As I wrote -- these guys are both projects.

pcbothwel wrote:Overall, this is a good discussion and I like our back and forths.

I hope Zards reads the above sentence -- & it would be nice if you acknowledge it too, Zards. Not b/c I'm perfect, but b/c I will feel relieved if you do.

pcbothwel wrote:I’ll close with this years draft. Yes, Okongwu is projected top 10, but still below Edwards and Ball who at the same age, have produced far less on both ends of the court.
Wiseman: Lets see how this draft shakes out, but he has been closely followed for 2 years now as some generational big man like Ayton/David Robinson. Yet, many project him to be the one player who could surprisingly fall out of the top 5.

& this is meant to support a claim that if two equally good players are there at a given spot in the draft, one a wing & the other a big, the wing will go first?

You're kidding, right? It doesn't.

If the claim were true, then surely a better wing could not go below a less good big, right? But, it happens all the time -- can you spell Luka Doncic?
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