Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVIII

[gambitx777]

We can't definitely get something between everything and nothing for him.

...bertans is definitely worth something to someone ...

Yup. & whatever it is -- lets say a R2 pick two years from now for example -- we should definitely take it.

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[thinker07]

As a Portland fan I have to say that you are completely overthinking this.

Collins is off the market for anything other than a star. Simons is the same. There's no trade to be made revolving around Bertans that nets you anything more than a lottery protected first. Jody Allen is now the teams owner. And all signs point to her enjoying the ownership.

I understand this is a Wizards board, so I won't get into some long drawn out fight, but all these trades where Bertans is going out and returning high upside players and first round picks are ludicrous. He's an expiring contract who's a bench player on a good team. The Blazers aren't depleting their assets for a guy like that.

Blazers and Wizards are just bad trading partners. Portland doesn't have contracts to match Bertans, so you're left poaching Portland rotation players in an effort to make salaries match which negates the point of adding a player like Bertans.




Let me dissect your offer and tell you why it's completely horrendous from a Blazer point of view:

- Bertans fills an immediate need for the Blazers. He can log a solid amount of minutes at the 4, and is a really good shooter. That's the positive. Despite that Bertans is till just a bench player on a contending team. We can all agree I'd think.

- Mahinmi is out for an extended period of time, and has isn't very good even when he's healthy. Hassan Whiteside has his issues bu he's a SIGNIFICANTLY better player than Mahinmi at this point. The Blazers may have gotten a 4 who can contribute in Bertans but they've lost their rim protector and gotten significantly worse at the 5 to accomplish it. This trade is already looking like a bust for the Blazers.

Now let's add insult to injury:
- In order to shift the hole in the roster from the 4 to the 5 you have Portland also: Giving up Nassir Little who is a high upside player drafted in the 1st round, and/or draft picks. Taking on CJ Miles salary which cuts into Portland's cap space next year, or at a minimum their financial flexibility.

I just can't see any reason whatsover for Portland to make that trade. They give up assets, and it's arguable that they get worse in the short term as well. Due to Bertans salary, I can't come up with a single trade that works out well for both Portland and Washington.

In my post I said that Windhorst said the best deal for Portland would be built around Bazemore and Gallinari. That makes more sense than a Wizards trade. I just don't think Presti will make that deal to net a 2nd round pick.

And Jody Allen is not the owner. Paul Allen's Charitable trust is the owner. Just as the trust owns the Seahawks now too. Jody is in charge of the trust in some form and legally there are any number of legal problems with a charity owning sports teams. I really believe the teams will have to sold in the relative near term (2-5 years). Local Portland wishful thinking notwithstanding.

Maybe people believe Whiteside has been playing well -- Shaq and Barkley seriously disagree (currently watching the game with the Clippers on TNT). Regardless, Whiteside isn't really the main problem. The main problem is the lack of any reasonable option at PF with Collins out. I just don't see how Portland can keep its head above water for the next 4 months playing Tolliver, Hezonja, and in small lineups Hood against the likes of Harrell, Anthony Davis, Milsap, Porzingas, Lamarcus, Bogdanovich, etc.

Now they have lost 4 of 5 since Collins got hurt. They are in a tough spot and they need to make a trade. Barkley just said they ought to trade CJ for Kevin Love because this team is not going to beat the best teams in the West. I doubt anything like that would happen but Portland HAS to do something if they want to contend for a top 4/5 finish in the West. All the other teams see that as well and Portland is going to have to really overpay to get an impact deal at this point in the season.

[Roy The Natural]

As a Portland fan I have to say that you are completely overthinking this.

Collins is off the market for anything other than a star. Simons is the same. There's no trade to be made revolving around Bertans that nets you anything more than a lottery protected first. Jody Allen is now the teams owner. And all signs point to her enjoying the ownership.

I understand this is a Wizards board, so I won't get into some long drawn out fight, but all these trades where Bertans is going out and returning high upside players and first round picks are ludicrous. He's an expiring contract who's a bench player on a good team. The Blazers aren't depleting their assets for a guy like that.

Blazers and Wizards are just bad trading partners. Portland doesn't have contracts to match Bertans, so you're left poaching Portland rotation players in an effort to make salaries match which negates the point of adding a player like Bertans.




Let me dissect your offer and tell you why it's completely horrendous from a Blazer point of view:

- Bertans fills an immediate need for the Blazers. He can log a solid amount of minutes at the 4, and is a really good shooter. That's the positive. Despite that Bertans is till just a bench player on a contending team. We can all agree I'd think.

- Mahinmi is out for an extended period of time, and has isn't very good even when he's healthy. Hassan Whiteside has his issues bu he's a SIGNIFICANTLY better player than Mahinmi at this point. The Blazers may have gotten a 4 who can contribute in Bertans but they've lost their rim protector and gotten significantly worse at the 5 to accomplish it. This trade is already looking like a bust for the Blazers.

Now let's add insult to injury:
- In order to shift the hole in the roster from the 4 to the 5 you have Portland also: Giving up Nassir Little who is a high upside player drafted in the 1st round, and/or draft picks. Taking on CJ Miles salary which cuts into Portland's cap space next year, or at a minimum their financial flexibility.

I just can't see any reason whatsover for Portland to make that trade. They give up assets, and it's arguable that they get worse in the short term as well. Due to Bertans salary, I can't come up with a single trade that works out well for both Portland and Washington.

In my post I said that Windhorst said the best deal for Portland would be built around Bazemore and Gallinari. That makes more sense than a Wizards trade. I just don't think Presti will make that deal to net a 2nd round pick.

And Jody Allen is not the owner. Paul Allen's Charitable trust is the owner. Just as the trust owns the Seahawks now too. Jody is in charge of the trust in some form and legally there are any number of legal problems with a charity owning sports teams. I really believe the teams will have to sold in the relative near term (2-5 years). Local Portland wishful thinking notwithstanding.

Maybe people believe Whiteside has been playing well -- Shaq and Barkley seriously disagree (currently watching the game with the Clippers on TNT). Regardless, Whiteside isn't really the main problem. The main problem is the lack of any reasonable option at PF with Collins out. I just don't see how Portland can keep its head above water for the next 4 months playing Tolliver, Hezonja, and in small lineups Hood against the likes of Harrell, Anthony Davis, Milsap, Porzingas, Lamarcus, Bogdanovich, etc.

Now they have lost 4 of 5 since Collins got hurt. They are in a tough spot and they need to make a trade. Barkley just said they ought to trade CJ for Kevin Love because this team is not going to beat the best teams in the West. I doubt anything like that would happen but Portland HAS to do something if they want to contend for a top 4/5 finish in the West. All the other teams see that as well and Portland is going to have to really overpay to get an impact deal at this point in the season.

I disagree. I don't think Portland will have to overpay. The market for 4s has plenty of players who look like they'll be attainable for a decent price.

The Knicks have like 3 guys who'd fit right in, and none are likely to cost much to attain.
Love is out there, I doubt Portland is interested in him. He's more of a 5 these days.
Gallo is out there. I'd swap expirings and a protected 1st rounder for Gallo.
You've got these Bertans type deals if need be. They should be pretty cheap.

There's plenty of guys out there to target. But you don't sell your future, for these moves. A 1st rounder is fine for the right player. Collins and Simons are off the table though.

[nate33]

I disagree. I don't think Portland will have to overpay. The market for 4s has plenty of players who look like they'll be attainable for a decent price.

The Knicks have like 3 guys who'd fit right in, and none are likely to cost much to attain.
Love is out there, I doubt Portland is interested in him. He's more of a 5 these days.
Gallo is out there. I'd swap expirings and a protected 1st rounder for Gallo.
You've got these Bertans type deals if need be. They should be pretty cheap.

There's plenty of guys out there to target. But you don't sell your future, for these moves. A 1st rounder is fine for the right player. Collins and Simons are off the table though.

Roy, for context, here is the trade I posted several pages ago that someone recently referenced:

I've got the absolute perfect Trade Deadline deal involving the Portland Trail Blazers! Portland has no true PF, they lack front court shooters, and they will have an abundance of expensive centers once Nurkic gets back from his injury mid-year. Portland is also $13M over the luxtax and facing some brutal luxtax penalties.

Here's the deal:

Washington trades: Mahinmi + Bertans
Portland trades: Whiteside + incentive

This is a dream trade for Portland. They get the exact type of player they need to balance their roster, and they get rid of locker room cancer Whiteside, whom they will presumably be hating by around February. Bertans might be the guy that puts them into contender status. A closing lineup of Lillard, McCollum, Bazemore, Bertans and Nurkic is formidable. And just as importantly, they save $4.6M in salary and another 9.5M in luxtax penalties for a total dollar savings of $14M!

We do it for the "incentive". Given how much we'd be helping them, just at the right time, I think that incentive could be quite a lot. I definitely think a 1st round pick is likely. Or maybe they give us Nassir Little. Probably some 2nd round picks too. This is a really helpful deal for Portland. The price should be steep.

From our perspective, we have about $4.4M in luxtax room so the deal puts us $200K over the luxtax. We can address that hopefully by buying out Whiteside for the cost of his contract minus the pro-rated amount of a vet-minimum deal (which would give him the opportunity to sign with a contender on a vet minimum deal).

This assumes that Whiteside has worn out his welcome by the time Nurkic comes back. He's playing pretty well for you right now so maybe that won't happen. But if Portland ends up feeling about him the same as Miami felt about him, and if Nurkic and Collins come back, I think Portland would be pretty excited to unload his salary and balance the roster. $14M in savings plus the best shooting forward in the league - is that worth a 1st round pick?

[payitforward]

This is an interesting discussion. It shines a light on the problems/benefits of trading some amount of future value for some amount of present value.

For the trade to make sense to Portland, they have to be in a position around the Trade Deadline where the "present value" they get in the trade can make a significant positive difference to them. Thus, if things are bad -- their record is such that one guy like Bertans isn't likely to change their playoff position/fate -- then there is little reason to sacrifice future for present.

OTOH, if things are pretty good, then they are unlikely to want to give much future value for the temporary boost a bench player like Bertans might provide.

There could be a sweet spot, of course.

At the same time, the distribution of benefits is obviously in our favor -- almost no matter what! We give up no present value (that matters to us). We do give up a little future value (Bird rights on Bertans -- is that correct, nate?), but it doesn't amount to much for a rebuilding team. OTOH, we get some future value. In fact, you can argue that whatever future value we get in the deal makes it worth doing for us. E.g. a mid-R2 pick is worth more to us than a bench player like Bertans locked in for years at a high price.

[payitforward]

Just realized that I left out the $14m in savings -- money matters, duh...!

But... if they save $14m, don't we have to add $14m?

Nate -- are you assuming that we get enough in the deal that we'd be willing to go into the lux tax? Or am I missing something?

[pcbothwel]

Just realized that I left out the $14m in savings -- money matters, duh...!

But... if they save $14m, don't we have to add $14m?

Nate t-- are you assuming that we get enough in the deal that we'd be willing to go into the lux tax? Or am I missing something?

PIF... That 14M includes the Lux Tax savings. Its really just over 4M we add... but thats still not doable. We are 3.8M under the tax, so we cant add 4M while also losing a player and therefore need to add a 1.6M min player to that.

One very interesting team for Bertans... Nuggets.
They are competing, they have a lot of 2nds and young players, and they need shooting from the 4.
Milsap has been good, but Jokic, Hernangomez, Grant, Craig, and Plumlee are shooting 24% from 3 and Bertans fits in perfect.

I wonder if a Miles & Bertans package gets us Barton... They get shooting and expirings, we get Barton .

The Celtics have the same issues... Maybe Bertans for Theis plus .... (Edwards/Langford/Grant Williams)
Ditto Pacers. Leaf and McBuckets have been hot garbage and their guards outside of Brogdon cant score efficiently it seems...
Bertans and IT for McDermott & Aaron Holiday

Pacers get upgrade and talent/shooting while saving over 10M next year. We take on salary next year and drop talent, while picking up 3rd guard/prospect in Aaron Holiday.

[wall_glizzy]

Thus, if things are bad -- their record is such that one guy like Bertans isn't likely to change their playoff position/fate -- then there is little reason to sacrifice future for present.

I mostly agree - we're talking about essentially the reverse of our classic move of flipping a first for a Morris / Bogdanovic type who ultimately didn't move the needle one bit. It's hard to speculate without knowing how much, if any, internal pressure the Blazers feel to keep the team competitive and avoid a down year, but just wanted to note that their playoff fate very much was changed by exactly one such acquisition (Rodney Hood) last year, whose value seems like it might be roughly equivalent to that of Bertans.

I think Gallinari is still the (much) better option for them skills-wise, I just wonder if they'll be reluctant to shell out the additional draft assets that he'd require over Bertans (or someone like him). Both Lillard and McCollum are locked in for at least four more years at massive cap figures, and they're rapidly approaching the point at which the draft will be their only real option to add cheap talent that might return greater than vet-min value.

[nate33]

Just realized that I left out the $14m in savings -- money matters, duh...!

But... if they save $14m, don't we have to add $14m?

Nate -- are you assuming that we get enough in the deal that we'd be willing to go into the lux tax? Or am I missing something?

We take on $4M in extra salary. If Whiteside is bought out, we don't go into the luxtax. We could even ask Portland to send us cash to pay for that $4M in salary differential.

Portland saves $14M because they're deep in luxtax territory and are paying a 250% tax on that $4M that we save them.

[nate33]

PIF... That 14M includes the Lux Tax savings. Its really just over 4M we add... but thats still not doable. We are 3.8M under the tax, so we cant add 4M while also losing a player and therefore need to add a 1.6M min player to that.

We don't need to add a player. 14 players is a sufficient sized roster. So we would only need to save $200K. Whiteside could be bought out under the assumption that he will sign on a contender for the pro-rated vet minimum, which amounts to something like $400K. So he'd agree to be bought out for his remaining salary minus $400K, which saves us $400k and gets us under the luxtax.

[nate33]

Thus, if things are bad -- their record is such that one guy like Bertans isn't likely to change their playoff position/fate -- then there is little reason to sacrifice future for present.

I mostly agree - we're talking about essentially the reverse of our classic move of flipping a first for a Morris / Bogdanovic type who ultimately didn't move the needle one bit. It's hard to speculate without knowing how much, if any, internal pressure the Blazers feel to keep the team competitive and avoid a down year, but just wanted to note that their playoff fate very much was changed by exactly one such acquisition (Rodney Hood) last year, whose value seems like it might be roughly equivalent to that of Bertans.

I think Gallinari is still the (much) better option for them skills-wise, I just wonder if they'll be reluctant to shell out the additional draft assets that he'd require over Bertans (or someone like him). Both Lillard and McCollum are locked in for at least four more years at massive cap figures, and they're rapidly approaching the point at which the draft will be their only real option to add cheap talent that might return greater than vet-min value.

I agree that Gallinari is a better option for Portland. But OKC doesn't have the capacity to save Portland $14M in the trade like we can.

[wall_glizzy]

One very interesting team for Bertans... Nuggets.
They are competing, they have a lot of 2nds and young players, and they need shooting from the 4.
Milsap has been good, but Jokic, Hernangomez, Grant, Craig, and Plumlee are shooting 24% from 3 and Bertans fits in perfect.

I wonder if a Miles & Bertans package gets us Barton... They get shooting and expirings, we get Barton .

(prefacing this by saying that the Nuggets are my other / Western Conference / local team)

As someone who has watched a whole lot of Nuggets basketball, they would jump at that deal - and for good reason. We very much do not want Barton. He's got two more years on his deal, which will reach about $14 million a year, and offers little on defense and supreme inconsistency on offense.

That said, I think that sort of trade is unlikely - I suspect that any Nuggets deal this year will be along the lines of consolidating their many young assets to try and bring in a star or near-star veteran who can push them over the hump. They're certainly not looking to turn any one player on the roster into two, as the bench is already packed with talented but ultimately not game-changing young players. I also think this sort of panic trade ("panic" in that it's a reaction to a small sample size, and would result in a somewhat substantial change of philosophy in roster construction) is unlikely, at least based on the teams shooting from distance so far. Grant's actual shooting ability is a question mark as it's varied so much from year to year, but we know that it'll land somewhere north of 24%. Ditto Jokic, who's shooting a good 10% below what we know he's capable of. The Nuggets have a tendency to get off on the wrong foot year after year, but have so far proven themselves capable of righting the ship.

Ultimately I don't think the most likely suitors for a Bertans or Miles will emerge until around the trade deadline, when we have a clearer idea of who's really contending, who might be a piece away, and who will be best served to pack it in and give it another try next year (the Blazers, for example, are strong candidates for that last option as the season wears on). I also don't think we should discount the possibility of re-signing Bertans - he's elite at his perpetually in-demand role, and seems like a neutral-positive locker room presence. I see a lot of logic along the lines of "any value we can get for him is better than the zero of him leaving," which isn't quite right - we want to compare the value he could bring in a trade to the value we would realize by retaining him, weighted for what we perceive as the likelihood of being able to do so. I'm totally fine with foregoing a 2nd rounder or two at the deadline if Tommy thinks there's a strong chance of re-signing Bertans long-term at a reasonable figure.

[wall_glizzy]

I agree that Gallinari is a better option for Portland. But OKC doesn't have the capacity to save Portland $14M in the trade like we can.

Sure, I just think we differ on a couple of premises - (a) that Whiteside is guaranteed to have become some kind of massive locker room negative by February (b) that Nurkic will return this year at all, let alone that he'll do so in a state suitable for a playoff push (which, since you have them giving up significant assets, we assume to be in their plans in this scenario). Given how thin their front court has become (and that Nurkic, again, is coming back from the Hayward injury iirc), I just can't see trading Whiteside and staying competitive for this year as complementary moves.

[nate33]

I agree that Gallinari is a better option for Portland. But OKC doesn't have the capacity to save Portland $14M in the trade like we can.

Sure, I just think we differ on a couple of premises - (a) that Whiteside is guaranteed to have become some kind of massive locker room negative by February (b) that Nurkic will return this year at all, let alone that he'll do so in a state suitable for a playoff push (which, since you have them giving up significant assets, we assume to be in their plans in this scenario). Given how thin their front court has become (and that Nurkic, again, is coming back from the Hayward injury iirc), I just can't see trading Whiteside and staying competitive for this year as complementary moves.

All true. My trade only makes sense if certain things fall into place. I think the likelihood of those things happening is higher than you think it is, but I readily cede that things may not work out.

I think Nurkic might come back because he broke a bone, not a joint or a tendon. Bone breaks typically heal pretty cleanly and get back to 100% of their former strength.

FWIW, I came across this while researching this issue:

Since Nurkic went down on March 25, he’s already proceeded past the excruciating early stages of rehabilitation. He has been walking for some time now, and has been working out to stay in basketball shape. Feinblatt’s suggested recovery timetable would slate Nurkic to be able to return as soon as early January. But it should be noted that diagnosis is for average people, not those that play an intensely competitive sport for a living.

Neil Olshey has repeatedly suggested the team is looking to bring Jusuf back in early February, which would give him a few extra weeks to recover and further mitigate the risk of another injury. That should also give him a few games to shake the rust off to decide whether they need to keep Whiteside around or if they can send Hassan out at February’s trade deadline for another star.

[FAH1223]

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[gambitx777]

I wonder with Gordon out if we could make a cap relief package to get him and maybe the bucks pick they own.

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[nate33]

I wonder with Gordon out if we could make a cap relief package to get him and maybe the bucks pick they own.

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Boston is $12M UNDER the luxtax threshold and they have at least an outside chance at a title run. Why on Earth would they give away Gordon while sacrificing a pick in the process?

Gordon is back in 6 weeks. If anything, Boston will look to add a guy.

[gambitx777]

Fair point

I wonder with Gordon out if we could make a cap relief package to get him and maybe the bucks pick they own.

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Boston is $12M UNDER the luxtax threshold and they have at least an outside chance at a title run. Why on Earth would they give away Gordon while sacrificing a pick in the process?

Gordon is back in 6 weeks. If anything, Boston will look to add a guy.

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[Knicksfan20]

Julius Randle
Bobby Portis
Elfrid Payton
Wayne Ellington

for

John Wall
Rui Hachiwhateva
Troy Brown Jr
Mortiz Wagner
2020 frp unprotected

pretty much get to have a clean slate and rid yourself of Wall and his contract.

[BearlyBallin]

Julius Randle
Bobby Portis
Elfrid Payton
Wayne Ellington

for

John Wall
Rui Hachiwhateva
Troy Brown Jr
Mortiz Wagner
2020 frp unprotected

pretty much get to have a clean slate and rid yourself of Wall and his contract.

I once saw a movie where two orphan brothers were having a discussion. The older would make a wishful statement that felt most likely impossible and at best improbable. Something like “I’m getting a pony for Xmas.” And the younger eternal optimistic brother would answer enthusiastically, “It could happen!” Funny but this post made me think of that movie...