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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1001 » by payitforward » Tue Jun 9, 2020 7:31 pm

Ruzious wrote:Did you include our #37 pick in the trade to Boston?

Thanks for catching that, Ruz -- yes, I must have.

If we are getting a R2 pick next year (which would of course be much lower than the #37 this year), we'd have to give that pick.

OTOH, if we leave that out & also leave out our #37 this year, then I think that the #9 for the Celt's #s 17, 26, & 46 this year is asking a bit too much of them -- though of course we'd try for that.

Presumably they'd counter with just the #17 & #26, which seems not quite enough to get back for the #9.

Alternatively, they might agree to #17, #30 & #45 for #9 -- but (given I'm using Tankathon for this experiment) that means I don't get Tyler Bey. I want Tyler Bey! Plus,

Plus, though I didn't mention this, I would buy the #33 or #35 from Elton Brand & pick either Paul Reed or Xavier Tillman. (Because, once again, I'm using the Tankathon mock for this fantasy, I can't get either of those guys at #37).

Thus, overall, we'd have given our #9, our #37, & @$2-3m. We'd come home with Aleksej Pokuševski, Tyler Bey, either Paul Reed or Xavier Tillman, Reggie Perry & a R2 pick next year.

pg -- Wall, Napier, Smith
sg -- Beal, Tyler Bey, Garrison Mathews
sf -- Brown, Bonga, Paul Reed
pf -- Rui, Bertans, Reggie Perry
c -- Bryant, Wagner, Poku

If it's Tillman instead of Reed, move Bertans to the 3.

Your guess is as good as mine what we do with Admiral Schofield & Jerome Robinson, both of whom are guaranteed, neither of whom is even slightly tradable. But, even if we eat their salaries we are way under the tax line.

What I like about this scenario is that now we'd have a couple of good candidates to back up Beal, we have a long-term candidate to be an outstanding modern Center, & we have more young depth at forward.

What we would not have is any youth at PG. But, we'd be very solid at the position for the moment, & Smith would be a good trade candidate at the deadline.

Any of that make sense to you, Ruz?
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1002 » by youngWizzy » Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:07 am

Hello everybody,

Tool: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com

I recently developed an NBA Draft Tool that might help with NBA Draft Analysis

The tool is nowhere close to perfect and admittedly the similarity algorithm isn't the best but it's a project that I'm going to continue to build and work on.

The tool retrieves similar physical, statistical (per40), and advanced stat comparisons for any player dating back to the 1990 NBA Draft based on their position

Note: Advanced stats only go back to the 2011 Draft

Additionally, if you cannot find a player in the stats, visuals, or advanced pages you can enter their sports-reference url and the site will generate the comparisons then.

The experience is a lot better on desktop/laptop than mobile which is something I am working on right now

If you don't mind sharing the tool with your friends and people that would mean a whole lot as it could lead to potential donations to my site that will help keep it up! Been working on this for a few years now so it's been one hell of a roller coaster ride!

Per 40 stat comparison can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/stats

Image


Advanced stat comparisons can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced

Image


Physical comparisons can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/measurements

Image


A visualizations page which visualizes how a player compares to their position can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/visuals

Image

You can compare prospects side by side here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/compare

Image

Hope this might help!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1003 » by Shoe » Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:21 pm

youngWizzy wrote:Hello everybody,

Tool: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com

I recently developed an NBA Draft Tool that might help with NBA Draft Analysis

The tool is nowhere close to perfect and admittedly the similarity algorithm isn't the best but it's a project that I'm going to continue to build and work on.

The tool retrieves similar physical, statistical (per40), and advanced stat comparisons for any player dating back to the 1990 NBA Draft based on their position

Note: Advanced stats only go back to the 2011 Draft

Additionally, if you cannot find a player in the stats, visuals, or advanced pages you can enter their sports-reference url and the site will generate the comparisons then.

The experience is a lot better on desktop/laptop than mobile which is something I am working on right now

If you don't mind sharing the tool with your friends and people that would mean a whole lot as it could lead to potential donations to my site that will help keep it up! Been working on this for a few years now so it's been one hell of a roller coaster ride!

Per 40 stat comparison can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/stats

Image


Advanced stat comparisons can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/advanced

Image


Physical comparisons can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/measurements

Image


A visualizations page which visualizes how a player compares to their position can be found here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/visuals

Image

You can compare prospects side by side here: https://nbadraftcomp.herokuapp.com/compare

Image

Hope this might help!


Awesome well done.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1004 » by payitforward » Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:07 pm

Way to keep after it, youngwizzy -- looking good!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1005 » by Shoe » Fri Jun 12, 2020 4:04 pm

I like Vassell a lot he can probably start at the wing right away. Problem is I see a lot of Frank Kaminsky, Justise Winslow, Rashad Vaughn, Trey Lyles, Sam Dekker, Jerian Grant, Cameron Payne, Kelly Oubre, Delon Wright, Justin Anderson, Bobby Portis in this draft. Guys who are good at basketball and have intriguing talent but aren't franchise changers. The NBA is a difficult job and I think a lot of players go from being stars their entire life to role players scraping to earn minutes, it bruises egos and puts a toll on desire to continue their work ethic. It's probably crushing for a lot of guys to see that a 7 foot freak of nature like Giannis is putting more work in the weight room and gym than even they ever needed to to get a scholarship.Jarring most likely. It's impossible to speculate on the temperament of players so this should probably be ignored.
I don't have high hopes for this pick.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1006 » by payitforward » Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:03 pm

Oh come on, Shoe -- we're going to trade down & get 2-3 terrific players!! :)

As far as work ethic & temperament, that's one of the ways guys distinguish themselves & maximize what they get from their talents. & because it varies on a bell-shaped curve, just like everything else, we see tons of guys picked late or at least late-ish in the draft have long, productive careers.

As to the idea of "franchise changers" -- that's an extra you maybe get once in 20 years if you do a great job of prepping for the draft. But, it's not something you are trying to "strategize" in order to pull one with your pick! Once every 10 years, maybe less often, if you happen to have the top pick, there's a guy sitting there about whom it's obvious -- say LeBron.

But, Michael Jordan didn't go #1. Giannis went #15, as did Kawhi. Butler went #30. Gobert 25, Jokic 41 -- those are the closest I can think of, in recent memory, to what you seem to have in mind.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1007 » by payitforward » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:12 pm

Shoe wrote:I like Vassell a lot he can probably start at the wing right away....

I.e. over Troy Brown, I assume?

I wonder why you think so. Brown came out after one year: if you compare his numbers as a Freshman to Vassell's numbers as a Freshman, you find very different players, guys who do different things. But, overall, Brown was significantly more productive than Vassell as a Freshman. Not to mention that Brown started every game & played over three times as many minutes as Vassell.

As a Sophomore this year, Devin Vassell was pretty much the same kind of player he'd been as a Freshman -- except better. Overall, he was about as productive as a Sophomore as Brown was as a Freshman.

But... Vassell played in a tougher conference.

OTOH, Troy Brown, in his "second year," played in the NBA! He got 700+ minutes & posted, overall, slightly above average numbers for an NBA wing -- at 19 years of age!

Then, in his second year, having just turned 20 years old, Troy improved significantly over that rookie performance (& in two times the minutes). He's established himself as one of the better young players in the league.

Let me point out, btw, that I didn't like the pick of Troy Brown. I criticized it. But, his play turned me around.

If we pick Vassell -- which I wouldn't be against, btw, that is not my point here -- he'll begin his rookie year at the age Troy was when he began his 2d year in the league.

I think the chances of Devin Vassell starting (for us or anyone) are small. If I had to make a prediction, the guy he most reminds me of (numbers...) is Tyler Herro who played well enough as a rookie (shot the 3 extremely well) to indicate that he will be a solid NBA player (ala Rui in a way...) but by no means well enough to keep Duncan Robinson or even Kendrick Nunn glued to the bench.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1008 » by pcbothwel » Sat Jun 13, 2020 2:15 pm

Depending on the overall package, I'd prefer to trade down 7-9 spots for a 1st next year...even if its outside the top 18-20.
i would then trust TS and Co to take the BPA of Vassell, Tyler Bey, Okoro, Green, Anthony, Maxey, Nesmith, etc.

Getting Bey and Tillman (37) would immediately shore up our wing/big defense on the cheap for the next 4 years. Both players are net positive the moment they step on the NBA court... even if their ceiling is questionable.
This allows us to keep an eye on the future while giving the team immediate help.

Either way, I like the all the most probable picks for us are guys that can play defense (See above).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1009 » by payitforward » Sat Jun 13, 2020 5:21 pm

Good thoughts...!

If we assume that a #9 would bring, say, #s17 & 25 in the same year's draft, & also assume a discount on a future asset over a present one, we might think that our #9 would bring the #17 this year & the #22-23 next year.

The only problem is... practically speaking, the trade would have to be with the Celtics. For this year's #17 (from the Griz) & their own R1 pick next year, which is likely to be further down in R1 than #23.

Another way to go might be the same trade, but they throw in their #46 this year. We'd have the #17, #37 & #46 this year, plus Boston's R1 pick next year.

Maybe better would be -- Our #9 & #37 this year for their #17 this year (from the Griz), their #30 this year (from the Bucks), & their own R1 pick next year. I can see them going for that trade.

Pure speculation... but... does it make any sense?
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1010 » by Shoe » Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:54 pm

payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:I like Vassell a lot he can probably start at the wing right away....

I.e. over Troy Brown, I assume?

I wonder why you think so. Brown came out after one year: if you compare his numbers as a Freshman to Vassell's numbers as a Freshman, you find very different players, guys who do different things. But, overall, Brown was significantly more productive than Vassell as a Freshman. Not to mention that Brown started every game & played over three times as many minutes as Vassell.

As a Sophomore this year, Devin Vassell was pretty much the same kind of player he'd been as a Freshman -- except better. Overall, he was about as productive as a Sophomore as Brown was as a Freshman.

But... Vassell played in a tougher conference.

OTOH, Troy Brown, in his "second year," played in the NBA! He got 700+ minutes & posted, overall, slightly above average numbers for an NBA wing -- at 19 years of age!

Then, in his second year, having just turned 20 years old, Troy improved significantly over that rookie performance (& in two times the minutes). He's established himself as one of the better young players in the league.

Let me point out, btw, that I didn't like the pick of Troy Brown. I criticized it. But, his play turned me around.

If we pick Vassell -- which I wouldn't be against, btw, that is not my point here -- he'll begin his rookie year at the age Troy was when he began his 2d year in the league.

I think the chances of Devin Vassell starting (for us or anyone) are small. If I had to make a prediction, the guy he most reminds me of (numbers...) is Tyler Herro who played well enough as a rookie (shot the 3 extremely well) to indicate that he will be a solid NBA player (ala Rui in a way...) but by no means well enough to keep Duncan Robinson or even Kendrick Nunn glued to the bench.


You think Troy Brown can be our starter at wing? Vassell seems to fit better as a 3 & D guy. I'd prefer to take someone like Toppin or Hayes or Haliburton if they drop than a wing but Bonga and TBJ I'm not sure of their ability to hold down that spot.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1011 » by pcbothwel » Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:10 pm

payitforward wrote:Good thoughts...!

If we assume that a #9 would bring, say, #s17 & 25 in the same year's draft, & also assume a discount on a future asset over a present one, we might think that our #9 would bring the #17 this year & the #22-23 next year.

The only problem is... practically speaking, the trade would have to be with the Celtics. For this year's #17 (from the Griz) & their own R1 pick next year, which is likely to be further down in R1 than #23.

Another way to go might be the same trade, but they throw in their #46 this year. We'd have the #17, #37 & #46 this year, plus Boston's R1 pick next year.

Maybe better would be -- Our #9 & #37 this year for their #17 this year (from the Griz), their #30 this year (from the Bucks), & their own R1 pick next year. I can see them going for that trade.

Pure speculation... but... does it make any sense?


It does... I have to think any team that makes that move has 2 things in mind. 1) They are a contendar and want a specific prospect to help over the next 2-3 years. And 2) They believe their 2021 1st will be late enough to make it worth trading.

The three teams in the teens that fit that criteria are the Celtics as you mentioned above, the Bucks, and the Blazers.
You covered the Celtics, so no need for me to rehash, but they are a great fit and simply have too many picks. The bucks dont work because of their pick being traded to the Cavs in 2022 and even if they could, pick number 28-30 in the 2021 draft is simply not enough for us to drop 10 spots (To 19).

OTOH, the blazers are interesting... They pick 14 and historically it cost a pick in the 18-22 range to move up 5-6 spots into the top 10. They are trying to contend over the next 3 years in Dames prime so their 2021 1st would be about fair.

The only problem is... who would the trade up 5 spots for? The only players I see that make sense are Hampton, Anthony, Vassell, and Okoro... but the 1st three are guards (They have CJ, Simons, and Dame) and Okoro is a doppelganger to their pick last year, Nassir Little.

Sooo... its really the Celtics or move out of the top 20, and I dont think Im willing to move quite that far down.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1012 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:51 am

"Historically" -- can you give me an example of a team giving an 18-22 pick to move up from 14 to 9? Or something comparable?

That's a whole lot, & I'd be skeptical if you didn't seem to have some data points in mind.

If I could get this year's #14 & next year's #20 for this year's #9, I'd do it without hesitation. I'd do it every year!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1013 » by pcbothwel » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:21 am

payitforward wrote:"Historically" -- can you give me an example of a team giving an 18-22 pick to move up from 14 to 9? Or something comparable?

That's a whole lot, & I'd be skeptical if you didn't seem to have some data points in mind.

If I could get this year's #14 & next year's #20 for this year's #9, I'd do it without hesitation. I'd do it every year!


Ill take a deeper dive tomorrow, but my first recolection was when the Kings traded 10 (Zack Collins) to the Blazers for 15 (Justin Jackson) & 20 (Harry Giles) in 2017.
The Suns traded a future 1st to move up from 16 to 10 to get Mikal Bridges as well...
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1014 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 15, 2020 2:24 am

I picked the Celtics, btw, b/c they have 4 picks in this year's draft, 3 in R1. If there's someone they want at #9, they have the assets to acquire the pick.

Btw, is the guy taken @ #9 in the NBA draft ever better than any player available at #14. Can you think of a single draft where that is the case? Note... not is the guy taken at #9 better than the guy taken at #14 that year. Is he better than anyone still available to be taken 5 spots down?

Sure, that's true sometimes -- it's been true in 6 of the last 20 drafts, for example (1999-2018).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1015 » by gesa2 » Fri Jun 19, 2020 12:46 pm

PIF you make this comparison a lot and I think it isn't a fair one. If we trade pick 9 for 17 and 30, we dont get to wait and see how all of the picks after 17 develop, we have to make a discrete pick and live with the consequences. So you have to compare a given pick at 9 with either a given pick at 17 and 30 chosen at the time not with hindsight, or you have to use average value for those picks.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1016 » by Ruzious » Fri Jun 19, 2020 2:04 pm

And as we know, every team goes by "the chart" and is always willing to make any trade that shows equal value. It's as easy as pushing a button.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1017 » by Endless Loop » Fri Jun 19, 2020 5:30 pm

payitforward wrote:I picked the Celtics, btw, b/c they have 4 picks in this year's draft, 3 in R1. If there's someone they want at #9, they have the assets to acquire the pick.

Btw, is the guy taken @ #9 in the NBA draft ever better than any player available at #14. Can you think of a single draft where that is the case? Note... not is the guy taken at #9 better than the guy taken at #14 that year. Is he better than anyone still available to be taken 5 spots down?

Sure, that's true sometimes -- it's been true in 6 of the last 20 drafts, for example (1999-2018).


Just talking math, it is ALWAYS true that the guy taken #9 SHOULD be better than any player available after him. The issue is that it's difficult to know who that guy is.

The focus should just be on picking that best player.

If this were a numbers game, then it would make sense to say, well, since I can't know who will be the best, I might as well grab a bunch of picks. That way I have more shots in the lottery. But the numbers game approach is definitely not right, because-
1. Surely it's obvious that some players are going to be less successful than others. So it's not a true lottery.
2. Getting two picks instead of one isn't very good diversification anyway.
3. If you trade back because you THINK somebody will be available later, then you're gambling on the idea that other GMs either are dumber than you or that you have better information. I don't think that's a smart gamble.

In the NBA quality wins over quantity. A higher draft pick means a better chance for higher quality. I'd almost always not trade down.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1018 » by payitforward » Fri Jun 19, 2020 6:44 pm

Shoe wrote:You think Troy Brown can be our starter at wing? Vassell seems to fit better as a 3 & D guy. I'd prefer to take someone like Toppin or Hayes or Haliburton if they drop than a wing but Bonga and TBJ I'm not sure of their ability to hold down that spot.

Quickest way to answer is to say that -- though I understand the value of the term "3 & D guy" -- I don't buy the idea of "specialists" in the NBA.

In the NFL, cornerbacks don't throw passes, Centers don't run the ball, & quarterbacks don't rush the opposing passer. This is not the NFL. Every single player does every single thing any other player does. If anything that is more the case now than ever.

Guards rebound, Centers shoot the 3, & PFs get assists. Everyone plays defense, & then the exact same guys play offense a split second later! That doesn't mean there aren't definable skills -- it's great to have a catch-and-shoot 3 point guy, obviously. It's great to have a guy with any skill that improves team numbers, because team numbers are what win games. Team numbers & nothing else. Period.

Troy Brown -- only 20 years old -- is already a terrific NBA player. He is a way above average three in only his second year in the league (&, I remind you, I did not think he was a good pick -- & I certainly didn't imagine him developing as fast as he has!).

He's not a skilled scorer yet, but he's not terrible -- per 40 minutes he posts 2.33 fewer points than an average SF on 1.8 fewer possessions. The efficiency is just below average, & other guys on the floor have to pick up those extra scoring attempts; there's a little team efficiency cost in that.

But, Troy also gives those other guys more chances to score b/c of his proficiency in rebounding, way above average steals & way below average turnovers.

In 40 minutes, an NBA SF gets 5.67 rebounds & 1.33 steals while committing 2.1 turnovers -- a positive 4.9 possessions overall. Troy is a positive 8.85 on that combination.

These are the reasons he is already such a terrific player. The improvement from year 1 to year 2 is -- obviously! -- another really important point. If he improves again next year in the same way, he'll be on his way to becoming a top-10% NBA player. Doesn't mean he's going to do that, of course!

Hey, Devin Vassell may be even better, who knows? I'm not putting a limit on him, & anyway how good Troy is/will be has no effect on Devin.

I'll say this much -- if we have the #9 pick, don't trade down, & take the kid, & he becomes as good as Troy Brown already is, then Devin Vassell will be a pretty good pick at that spot.

Before Rui, who is definitely an open question, the previous six #9 picks were: Trey Burke, Noah Vonleh, Frank Kaminsky, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Smith & Kevin Knox.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1019 » by SUPERBALLMAN » Sat Jun 20, 2020 8:04 pm

I think the 3 guys I have at the top of my list for our pick is 1.Okongwu 2.Jalen Smith 3.Okoro.








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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1020 » by AdonalFoyle4Prez » Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:08 pm

Wiggins + Looney + Paschal + 2020 Top 3 1st Round Pick for Bradley Beal + 2021 Future First Round Pick (Protected)?

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