2020 Draft

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I.e. in return for our #9? It's an offer worth considering, certainly.

The problem is that future assets are subject to discount -- i.e. a dollar today is worth more than the promise of a dollar a year from now. Ditto draft picks.

OTOH, in considering the trade, I don't think it matters whether we have lots of guards. For one thing, we don't have lots of young guards. For another, Ish will be expiring, John Wall is entering his 2d decade in the league, Robinson doesn't exactly exude upside, Napier is a terrific asset -- but as a backup, & Mathews has been a pleasant surprise but has a long way to go before he's established himself.

IOW, Wall & Beal are still the only guards in our "core."

So... where do you come down on the idea?

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One more thought -- on the Bucks side of this. Donte DiVicenzo has looked just tremendous this year. Is Haliburton the same kind of "low-usage phenom" as he is?

[doclinkin]

Draft trade question for Pif or anyone else (or I could shorten it to just say draft trade question... nah), If the Bucks offer the Indiana pick (18 or 19?) and their 1st rounders for both 2021 and 2023 (realizing they're going to be late 1sts unless Giannis leaves), do you do it?

My thinking for the Bucks is - they do this if Haliburton's there. He's a perfect fit for them because he's a low usage phenom. He's basically a young George Hill, and Hill's fit in there wonderfully, but he's old. And a move like that is probably something Giannis would approve of - making him more likely to stay - which is THE key to their franchise. Also, they can buy 2nd round picks - probably less than 10 spots down from what would have been their 1st rounders. And having Hali on a rookie contract helps them in avoiding the lux tax.

But what about the Wiz? They already have Wall and Beal and Ish and Napier and Jerome Robinson and Mathews - not to mention Troy Brown possibly moving to guard at some point. We gots guards.

I don't think Tommy Sheppard does it. Tyrese Halliburton is an "Everybody Eats" type player. He passes, stays active on defense, has decent size for the position, rebounds well for his spot, can play on and off ball, hits free throws, takes smart shots in the flow of offense, and most importantly for Tommy's analytics guys: he hits three point shots.

BBIQ players are absolutely the sort of guy that Sheppard likes to collect. Bonga. Troy Brown. Low ego players who are active and play a team game. Napier. Ish. Even Bertans.

We can't bank on Napier or Bertans re-signing with us, and while we do have ball handlers, we are short in reliable back-ups behind Beal. If they think Halliburton can reliably hit an NBA 3 while guarded, then I think they would have no problem selecting him on Ball Smarts alone. (He's got the range, and knows when he is open, but at the next level his defenders will close the gaps quicker).

Personally I think future picks are undervalued. Especially from a team that is heavily invested in one star to carry the team. How often have the Bullets/Wizards cratered when their single all-star went under. I fully expect Coach Bud to patch together an excellent team no matter what, but as you say Giannis is the franchise. It's a lot for one player to carry, even a Freak like G. The work load can start to stack up.

That said I think I'd still take Halliburton. He'd be easy to cheer for. Instant veteran. Making players around him better. A gamer. He's a Golden State type player. And really the more I watch of his game, the more I think he'd be the ideal understudy for both Beal and Wall. The same argument above applies to us. We need someone who can share the court with our injured Wallstar and our high minute should-be-all-star Beal.

[Ruzious]

One more thought -- on the Bucks side of this. Donte DiVicenzo has looked just tremendous this year. Is Haliburton the same kind of "low-usage phenom" as he is?

I think there are a lot of similarities - though I compare Haliburton more to a young George Hill - a little better than DDV.

[Ruzious]

I.e. in return for our #9? It's an offer worth considering, certainly.

The problem is that future assets are subject to discount -- i.e. a dollar today is worth more than the promise of a dollar a year from now. Ditto draft picks.

OTOH, in considering the trade, I don't think it matters whether we have lots of guards. For one thing, we don't have lots of young guards. For another, Ish will be expiring, John Wall is entering his 2d decade in the league, Robinson doesn't exactly exude upside, Napier is a terrific asset -- but as a backup, & Mathews has been a pleasant surprise but has a long way to go before he's established himself.

IOW, Wall & Beal are still the only guards in our "core."

So... where do you come down on the idea?

Good question. It depends on who slides to the 18th pick. We could trade down more and get CCJ fave Stix Smith - maybe get another future 1st in that trade?

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That's kind of an interesting idea, Ruz! Might be able to move the #19 & #37 to Boston for #26, #30 & #46.

@ #26, we would be likely to get one of: Vernon Carey, Josh Green, Theo Maledon, Desmond Bane or Tyrese Maxey.

@ #30, we would be likely to get one of Cassius Stanley, Paul Reed, Tyler Bey, Daniel Otoru or Leandro Bolmaro.

@ #46, we would be likely to get one of Killian Tillie, Xavier Tillman, Reggie Perry or Malachi Flynn.

To spread the picks positionally, maybe...

Vernon Carey, Tyler Bey & Malachi Flynn ?
Theo Maledon, Paul Reed & Xavier Tillman?
Josh Green, Daniel Otoru & Killian Tillie?
Tyrese Maxey, Leandro Bolmaro, & Reggie Perry?

& then also get those R1 picks next year & in '23.

Plenty of other ways to make the salad too. What would be your favorite assortment?

[Ruzious]

That's kind of an interesting idea, Ruz! Might be able to move the #19 & #37 to Boston for #26, #30 & #46.

@ #26, we would be likely to get one of: Vernon Carey, Josh Green, Theo Maledon, Desmond Bane or Tyrese Maxey.

@ #30, we would be likely to get one of Cassius Stanley, Paul Reed, Tyler Bey, Daniel Otoru or Leandro Bolmaro.

@ #46, we would be likely to get one of Killian Tillie, Xavier Tillman, Reggie Perry or Malachi Flynn.

To spread the picks positionally, maybe...

Vernon Carey, Tyler Bey & Malachi Flynn ?
Theo Maledon, Paul Reed & Xavier Tillman?
Josh Green, Daniel Otoru & Killian Tillie?
Tyrese Maxey, Leandro Bolmaro, & Reggie Perry?

& then also get those R1 picks next year & in '23.

Plenty of other ways to make the salad too. What would be your favorite assortment?

I'm a big Josh Green fan, so if he's there at 26, he'd be my choice. It's interesting - there's a lot of depth with bigs - like Carey, Smith, Otoru, Stewart, Tillman, Tillie, Perry, etc.

Grant Riller is a player I really like. He's in the Lou Williams mold - a terrific 1 on 1 player. One player I'm surprised has seemed to dip is Jordan Nwora. I thought he was overrated before, but now he's underrated. Seems like he'll be a good value pick in the 2nd round. Oh, and pick 30 - if Pokusevski is there, I definitely take him. Take him at 26 if Green isn't there.

[pcbothwel]

Draft trade question for Pif or anyone else (or I could shorten it to just say draft trade question... nah), If the Bucks offer the Indiana pick (18 or 19?) and their 1st rounders for both 2021 and 2023 (realizing they're going to be late 1sts unless Giannis leaves), do you do it?

My thinking for the Bucks is - they do this if Haliburton's there. He's a perfect fit for them because he's a low usage phenom. He's basically a young George Hill, and Hill's fit in there wonderfully, but he's old. And a move like that is probably something Giannis would approve of - making him more likely to stay - which is THE key to their franchise. Also, they can buy 2nd round picks - probably less than 10 spots down from what would have been their 1st rounders. And having Hali on a rookie contract helps them in avoiding the lux tax.

But what about the Wiz? They already have Wall and Beal and Ish and Napier and Jerome Robinson and Mathews - not to mention Troy Brown possibly moving to guard at some point. We gots guards.

1) The Bucks already have their 2022 pick traded to the Cavs, so they cant trade their 2021 & 2023 w/o very creative and restrictive protects...
2) That said...No. Moving down 10 picks requires the equivalent of a 2021 pick in the 10-16 range.

That said... Here is an interesting team for us.
76ers: They clearly need to win over the next 3 years and are already loaded with picks/young players (Like Boston)
Trade 9 for 22 & 34 plus their 2021 or 2022 1st.

22: Tyler Bey, Nesmith, Josh Green
34: (Any above) or: Tre Jones, Desmond Bane, Paul Reed, Tillman
37: (Any above) or: Isaiah Stewart, Oturu, Tillie, Perry, Sylla

Wall / Ish / Napier
Beal / Bane / Mathews
Brown / Bonga / Bey
Rui / Bertans / Bey
Bryant / Wagner / Tillman

That team is Tough, athletic, young, defensive minded, and skilled.
plus we'd have two 1st in the HS draft of 2022.

PIF... You're Welcome

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!!!!

But... Philly -- given that they have traded their own pick this year (#20, to the Nets), can they move their R1 pick next year? I don't think so.

It'd have to be their 2022 #1 -- that gets a somewhat steeper discount than a pick next year, hence I think they have to give a little more in the trade.

Plus... they have the #33 & the #35 pick this year, I believe (i.e. not the #34). So, it could be our #9 for the #22, #33 & #35 this year, plus their R1 pick in '22.

Now, let's get silly: assume we can trade that #35 & our #37 to Toronto for their #28. We still have 3 picks, still have the #22, but have the #33 instead of #34 -- & #28 instead of #37. IOW, we might do a little better.

22: Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Vernon Carey
(It's likely Nesmith is gone: so, pcb..., do you rank Smith/Carey here?)

28: (1 of the above 3, or...) Josh Green, Tyler Bey, Desmond Bane
(If only Nesmith is off the board, which of the 5 do you take here?)

33: (1 of the above 5, or...) Paul Reed, Daniel Otoru, Leandro Bolmaro, Xavier Tillman

Might wind up the same as your haul, pcbothwei, but might be better: we do have a bigger field of choice w/ the 2d & 3d of the picks.

What would be the best possible haul out of the above?

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Here's the most recent NBC Sports mock draft: https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/07/02/2020-nba-mock-draft-3-0-is-james-wiseman-the-no-1-overall-pick/

Here's a very different & "interesting" mock from an independent scout: https://www.lineups.com/articles/2020-nba-mock-draft-1-0/

nbadraftroom, updated today: https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft/

and... one more from bleacher report: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2898895-nba-mock-draft-2020-latest-buzz-on-james-wiseman-warriors-pistons

Comments?

[Ruzious]

Here's the most recent NBC Sports mock draft: https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/07/02/2020-nba-mock-draft-3-0-is-james-wiseman-the-no-1-overall-pick/

Here's a very different & "interesting" mock from an independent scout: https://www.lineups.com/articles/2020-nba-mock-draft-1-0/

nbadraftroom, updated today: https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft/

and... one more from bleacher report: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2898895-nba-mock-draft-2020-latest-buzz-on-james-wiseman-warriors-pistons

Comments?

On the 2nd one, Precious goes ahead of Okongwu - leaving Big O for the Wiz. That seems very odd to me because Precious is basically a poor man's Big O. But I'll take it. If I know you, your real question is: Do you trade down to 17 - because Haliburton somehow slides there? No, as much as a like Hali, I like Big O more. And in reality, there's no way Hali slides to 17.

The 4th has us picking Vassell. Trade down!

[payitforward]

Here's the most recent NBC Sports mock draft: https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/07/02/2020-nba-mock-draft-3-0-is-james-wiseman-the-no-1-overall-pick/

Here's a very different & "interesting" mock from an independent scout: https://www.lineups.com/articles/2020-nba-mock-draft-1-0/

nbadraftroom, updated today: https://nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft/

and... one more from bleacher report: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2898895-nba-mock-draft-2020-latest-buzz-on-james-wiseman-warriors-pistons

Comments?

On the 2nd one, Precious goes ahead of Okongwu - leaving Big O for the Wiz. That seems very odd to me because Precious is basically a poor man's Big O. But I'll take it. If I know you, your real question is: Do you trade down to 17 - because Haliburton somehow slides there? No, as much as a like Hali, I like Big O more. And in reality, there's no way Hali slides to 17.

The 4th has us picking Vassell. Trade down!

) -- if Okongwu is there at #9, I'm perfectly happy not to trade down. But, he won't be. Nor will Haliburton drop to #17. But, assuming O was not there at 9, & I had some kind of perfect pre-knowledge that H would be on the board at 17, then of course I'd trade down.

Man we've had a loooong time to chew over this draft! & there's weeks & weeks more of mastication in front of us!

[Ruzious]

Yeah, it's gonna be a long time just to get to the lottery.

[Ruzious]

Realistically, we could move up as much as 2 to 7th in the draft. Only the Hornets (1.5 games worse) and Bulls (2 games worse) have a realistic chance of winning enough to move down in the draft below us. No way the Knicks (3.5 worse) or Piston (4.5 worse) are going to catch us. And then who knows what happens in the lottery.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

2. Killian Hayes (Ratiopharm Ulm, PG, 2001)

Spoiler:

Killian Hayes chose to sit out the resumption of German BBL play, but we've seen enough in terms of execution, production and improvement.

Ranking him in the top three means betting that his three-point-shooting numbers will approach or surpass the 35.0 percent mark. He's still only at 29.4 percent, but for an 18-year-old, the eye test, a 41.4 percent pull-up jumper, an 87.6 free-throw percentage and an uptick in threes made per game (1.5 3PTM per 40) suggest it's a bet worth making.

Otherwise, he's a convincing passer (6.2 assists per game in Eurocup) and advanced pick-and-roll ball-handler capable of manipulating defenses with his eyes and hesitation. He made exciting strides as a scorer with his shot creation and footwork for separating, as well as his finishing package of floaters and layups in the lane.

3. Onyeka Okongwu (USC, C, Freshman)

Spoiler:

Onyeka Okongwu's floor may be his most appealing selling point. There's a high likelihood of his elite finishing, shot-blocking and post play translating based on his athleticism, production (16.2 points and 2.7 blocks per game) and skill level inside 12 feet.

At worst, with no improvement from here on out, he should still reach starter status for the right team by providing a high-percentage paint target and rim protection. But I'm buying the flashes of lefty hooks, face-up Eurosteps and mid-range touch.

He's going to be more than a dunker, capable of creating his own shot around the key and making mid-range jumpers, assuming the 15-of-35 jumpers and 72.0 percent free-throw mark at USC were real.

He might not have a path toward superstardom without a three-point shot or the ability to handle. But scouts have mentioned Derrick Favors as a likely outcome for Okongwu, which, in this draft, may be worthy of a top-three selection if it's close to a lock.

5. Obi Toppin (Dayton, PF/C, Sophomore)

Spoiler:

There is general agreement among scouts and evaluators that Obi Toppin will be a productive NBA pro. The debate focuses on how much his defensive limitations will neutralize his scoring when assessing his value.

In this particular draft, which is filled with uncertainty, Toppin's near-guaranteed offense is worth overvaluing. He just averaged 20.0 points on 63.3 percent shooting with elite leaping ability and an expanding skill set that suggests his finishing, post play and touch should translate.

He's slow to make defensive reads, and he doesn't move well laterally away from the basket. But how much will that matter if Toppin is averaging an efficient 20 points? The strong chance of him putting up those types of numbers seems to outweigh the likelihood of him struggling on defense. His future team will just want to prioritize playing him between a wing stopper and an effective rim protector.

6. Deni Avdija (Israel, SF/PF, 2001)

Spoiler:

One of the few eligible prospects back in action, Deni Avdija is using these final games to strengthen his case.

In three Israeli BSL appearances over the past two weeks, it's looked easy for the 19-year-old combo forward against lower-level competition. He's averaged 17.3 points, 6.3 boards and 3.0 assists on 7-of-15 shooting from three.

Avdija looks visibly stronger and immediately stands out physically despite his age. He's had some impressive moments handling the ball in transition or blowing by defenders for layups. And since his return, his jump shot and free throws (11-of-16) have fallen.

Some scouts still question his level of shot creation and history of shooting inconsistency, concerns that lower his perceived trajectory and lead to him topping out as a role player.

But Avdija appears to have one of the draft's higher floors based on his positional tools and versatility to dribble, finish, shot-make and pass.

8. Isaac Okoro (Auburn, SF/PF, Freshman)

Spoiler:

Isaac Okoro hasn't moved much on our board since opening night, falling into our safe category of prospects who are easy to picture fitting and adding value to any lineup.

In terms of what teams can bank on translating, Okoro, 6'6", 225 pounds, already possesses a convincing mix of power, quickness and focus for defense and guarding multiple positions. He matched up with bigs, wings and guards all season, showing the ability to wall up inside and smother around the perimeter.

He's further behind offensively, but he still shot 60.7 percent inside the arc, taking quality shots and converting them as a driver, cutter, finisher and post player. And though his 2.0 assists per game don't look exciting, untapped playmaking potential shined off his occasional drive-and-kicks and pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions.

The big questions revolve around his ceiling: How will his limited shot creation and below-average shooting affect his upside, and to what degree can he improve in those areas?

9. Devin Vassell (Florida State, SF, Sophomore)

Spoiler:

There is a reasonable path to plus shooting and elite defense for Devin Vassell, and the likelihood of him reaching both creates a high floor.

With an advantageous high release, he shot over 40 percent from three in both seasons at Florida State. And while his 2.8 percent steal rate and 4.1 block percentage are impressive, they still undersell his IQ for anticipating and athleticism for playmaking.

He also made promising strides this season with his pull-up game, though he didn't convert one isolation drive to the basket all season, a telling stat that highlights his limited off-the-dribble game.

12. Patrick Williams (Florida State, SF/PF, Freshman)

Spoiler:

Williams' age (18), physical tools (6'8" and 225 lbs) and skill versatility create an enticing potential trajectory. He's the draft's youngest NCAA prospect and has a strong, power forward's body and the ability to hit open threes, shoot off the dribble, run pick-and-rolls and finish through contact. On the flip side, he's still far away offensively (9.2 points per game) and limited with his self creation. And despite playing around the perimeter, he doesn't demonstrate the quickest foot speed for guarding wings.

13. Tyrese Haliburton (Iowa State, PG/SG, Sophomore)

Spoiler:

Given the lack of obvious stars in this draft, Haliburton could get top-five looks if teams put extra value into fit. I question his scoring upside without blow-by burst or a pull-up game. But for a 6'5" guard, Haliburton's passing IQ, spot-up shooting and defensive anticipation hint at a role player and safe pick.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[dckingsfan]

Retracted...

[Kanyewest]

Wiggins + Looney + Paschal + 2020 Top 3 1st Round Pick for Bradley Beal + 2021 Future First Round Pick (Protected)?

This makes 0 sense.

I liked it until I saw Bradley Beal was included

[Ruzious]

Good call, Shoe. I guess because he's another 7 footer with AP as his initials, I overlooked him. I can see the Wiz considering taking him, but I don't think they will. One thing that stood at to me watching the videos here http://www.tankathon.com/players/aleksej-pokusevski he's got great natural body control. There's a couple of times where he runs a ball down, beats someone to it, and changes directions without hesitation - one of them, he stops on a dime, turns, and easily makes a 3. Seems to have broad enough shoulders to eventually fill out on top. Love his quick passing skills and quick hands on D. Obviously, he'll get over-powered early in his career, but he's the youngest player in the draft.

Much more decisive and quick reacting than the flops you mentioned - with a higher BBIQ. Definitely a 4 now. We'll see how he fills out. I'm a fan, because he's a player.

This is a great vid of his highlights and lowlights. Tankathon has him #10 on their board but I've seen him mocked in the late first too. There are a lot of guys in the draft who can play right away with Wall and Beal they might not go with him although he is one of the few internationals.

Watch on YouTube

I think Poku is the biggest wildcard in the draft - and we need to consider him - especially if we get unlucky in the draft lottery and move to 10. Apparently, he's measured at 7' barefoot in the EuroLeague, and that would translate to 7'1.25 in shoes, and 7'2 wouldn't be an unreasonable guesstimate for what he'll end up being - since he's 18 (and barely eligible for the draft - by 6 days) - and those arms don't look short. His size is somewhat similar to what Porz was at that age. It's a matter of him filling out and gaining strength and how soon he develops in the NBA. But I do remember seeing Pau Gasol as a rookie with Memphis - painfully thin and more of a post player than Poku - he turned out ok. Alex Len - came to MD at barely over 200 lbs - came out at probably 250. Poku's upside makes him a legit consideration for the Wiz.

[doclinkin]

I think Poku is the biggest wildcard in the draft - and we need to consider him - especially if we get unlucky in the draft lottery and move to 10. Apparently, he's measured at 7' barefoot in the EuroLeague, and that would translate to 7'1.25 in shoes, and 7'2 wouldn't be an unreasonable guesstimate for what he'll end up being - since he's 18 (and barely eligible for the draft - by 6 days) - and those arms don't look short. His size is somewhat similar to what Porz was at that age. It's a matter of him filling out and gaining strength and how soon he develops in the NBA. But I do remember seeing Pau Gasol as a rookie with Memphis - painfully thin and more of a post player than Poku - he turned out ok. Alex Len - came to MD at barely over 200 lbs - came out at probably 250. Poku's upside makes him a legit consideration for the Wiz.

At %50 3pt shooting, and being a Euro guy, and us maybe losing Bertans, I fully expect Pokusevski is on Tommy's radar. At that height his shot not getting blocked, he can catch and shoot off motion and play the same role Davis does. Yes he will get shoved around a bit on defense, but this front office doesn't really seem to focus on D so much. If he passes and moves without the ball and hits a three from NBA range at a good clip then hey he's got a role here. Anything more that he develops is a bonus.