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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1081 » by Ruzious » Sun Aug 9, 2020 2:53 pm

Fischella wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I think the biggest reason Carey falls are the comps to Okafor. The NBA is really frowning on centers that don't defend well. He's clearly strictly a center, and he doesn't have the feet to defend well. Very good scorer and rebounder, but he doesn't fit what the NBA is currently looking for. Maybe Okafor's "failure" is a big reason for that. Of course, Okafor wouldn't be considered a failure - except for the fact that he was overrated by all the "experts" when he was at Duke. Honestly, I think Carey hurt himself by going to Duke, because that made it convenient to compare him to Okafor. From what I saw, Duke was a bad defensive team this season - but not just because of Carey - but he gets the blame.

Nobody would be high on Carey regardless, he is just too short on too many aspects, not tall enough, doesn't play big, lacks length, has passing flashes but overall just not there, same with shooting, same with recognition

if he were like a third better on everything he would be similar to Domas (well, prob more like 50% better as a passer at least but the rest) the way he is, he is likely to just be Kanter, at best

That's one thing that you're trying to stretch into 3 things. He's not as long as Okafor. Still, he's effectively just as good as Okafor. And Okafor failing - and being very badly overrated... is one of the reasons why people are so down on Carey - they just choose to forget that they had Okafor #1 on their board a few years ago.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1082 » by Fischella » Sun Aug 9, 2020 3:13 pm

Man, Enes Kanter was drafted 4 years before Jahlil, 3rd overall

and Carey being below average size wise is def a big issue
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1083 » by Ruzious » Sun Aug 9, 2020 5:10 pm

Fischella wrote:Man, Enes Kanter was drafted 4 years before Jahlil, 3rd overall

and Carey being below average size wise is def a big issue

I didn't mention anything about Kanter. What does he have to do with anything? He measured 6'11.25 in sneakers and 259 libs. He's not exactly undersized.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1084 » by Fischella » Sun Aug 9, 2020 5:18 pm

Kanter is another offensive only big who failed, before Okafor, so not sure why you go back to Jah and not to Kanter if that's your narrative

Carey isn't highly regarded because he is not all that good to derive value for a team, and this is a team sport
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1085 » by Ruzious » Sun Aug 9, 2020 10:14 pm

So your original comment makes no sense. You were basing your criticism of Carey on him being too small. And then said he's just like Kanter - who obviously isn't too small.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1086 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 10, 2020 4:23 pm

Fischella wrote:Poku is the youngest prospect in the draft, almost born in 2002 and he is still growing, he is 7'2 in shoes, with elite length and instincts, he can shoot on the move and moves like a guard, it's completely normal that he hasn't filled out yet, he is a top5 prospect in this class without a doubt

Upside, he's likely the very best prospect in this class. But, that's only one variable in assessing where to pick a guy.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1087 » by payitforward » Mon Aug 10, 2020 4:46 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Fischella wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I think the biggest reason Carey falls are the comps to Okafor. ....

Nobody would be high on Carey regardless, he is just too short on too many aspects, not tall enough, doesn't play big, lacks length, has passing flashes but overall just not there, same with shooting, same with recognition

if he were like a third better on everything he would be similar to Domas (well, prob more like 50% better as a passer at least but the rest) the way he is, he is likely to just be Kanter, at best

That's one thing that you're trying to stretch into 3 things. He's not as long as Okafor. Still, he's effectively just as good as Okafor. And Okafor failing - and being very badly overrated... is one of the reasons why people are so down on Carey - they just choose to forget that they had Okafor #1 on their board a few years ago.

1. I don't know why to compare Carey to Okafor at all. His one season was significantly better than Okafor's one season.

2. Suggesting that Carey won't succeed, because he isn't tall enough or long enough is pretty ridiculous. Simplistic for starters. There is virtually no correlation among 5s between marginal height/length & success in the league.

3. You cite nothing about Carey's play that is similar to Enes Kanter. Ex cathedra? Can you also see through stone walls?

Of course there's plenty of uncertainty about Carey. As there is about every draft prospect. But, a tape measure is not a tool to make uncertainty go away.

Here's the thing: the single best indicator of how well a guy will play in the league is how well he played in college. Period. Nothing else is even close as an indicator.

Is it 100%? Obviously not! It's nowhere near 100% -- all the same, there is nothing better.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1088 » by Shoe » Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:19 pm

I have come full circle on Okoro. I can overlook the broken jumper because his finishing ability is one of the best in the draft. Porter, Oubre, Bonga aren't finishers at the wing position, Ariza not really either. He seems like a team player. Even if he never develops into an Iguodala I think he can be someone like Marcus Smart, a tough energy defender off the bench and a long term solid player for the Wizards. He and Okongwu are good options.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1089 » by payitforward » Wed Aug 12, 2020 1:39 pm

Interesting take.... Could we trade down & still pick up Okoro (along with someone else obviously...)?

I see a bunch of potential bargains down in the '20s... or so I think!

What does anyone think of Jahmi'us Ramsay? Great 3-point shooter, said to be a stout defender, still only 18.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1090 » by Ruzious » Wed Aug 12, 2020 2:38 pm

payitforward wrote:Interesting take.... Could we trade down & still pick up Okoro (along with someone else obviously...)?

I see a bunch of potential bargains down in the '20s... or so I think!

What does anyone think of Jahmi'us Ramsay? Great 3-point shooter, said to be a stout defender, still only 18.

i think most mocks have Okoru going in the top 10, so I wouldn't count on trading down for him. I'm not a fan, because it's so hard for wings who... basically can't shoot - to excel in the NBA. Maybe he'll develop a shot, but if I'm a GM - I don't bet my job on it.

Ramsey's a talented player, but I think he's years away from being a good NBA player.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1091 » by nate33 » Wed Aug 12, 2020 5:26 pm

Ruzious wrote:i think most mocks have Okoru going in the top 10, so I wouldn't count on trading down for him. I'm not a fan, because it's so hard for wings who... basically can't shoot - to excel in the NBA. Maybe he'll develop a shot, but if I'm a GM - I don't bet my job on it.

Yeah, if his shot does come around, it will probably take 4 years for it to happen. So he won't be a very useful player until his contract is up.

If you are drafting a role player, it's important that he develops into a useful player within 2-3 years so at least you reap some value out of that rookie contract. There's no advantage to paying a role player full market value after his rookie deal is up. You can always find role players at full market value in free agency.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1092 » by Ruzious » Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:29 pm

There's a small chance that Okuru could be a Jimmy Butler type player, but even an over-achiever like Butler was just an average player in his first 3 seasons.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1093 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 13, 2020 1:20 am

Ruzious wrote:There's a small chance that Okuru could be a Jimmy Butler type player, but even an over-achiever like Butler was just an average player in his first 3 seasons.

I wouldn't say so, Ruz -- Butler was terrific his first 3 years; he just wasn't a volume scorer.

But, even in that case, nate's point holds: Butler was a 4-year college player. Okoro's 1 and done. He's not a player I covet at all.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1094 » by Ruzious » Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:48 am

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:There's a small chance that Okuru could be a Jimmy Butler type player, but even an over-achiever like Butler was just an average player in his first 3 seasons.

I wouldn't say so, Ruz -- Butler was terrific his first 3 years; he just wasn't a volume scorer.

But, even in that case, nate's point holds: Butler was a 4-year college player. Okoro's 1 and done. He's not a player I covet at all.

You have some weird definitions of what is a terrific player. Apparently one requirement is that he can't shoot.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1095 » by Shoe » Thu Aug 13, 2020 12:59 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Interesting take.... Could we trade down & still pick up Okoro (along with someone else obviously...)?

I see a bunch of potential bargains down in the '20s... or so I think!

What does anyone think of Jahmi'us Ramsay? Great 3-point shooter, said to be a stout defender, still only 18.

because it's so hard for wings who... basically can't shoot - to excel in the NBA.


But more importantly I would say it's so hard for wings who can't create to excel in the NBA. This is why I don't think he's M Kidd Gilchrist, Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow. I think he plays with a lot more bend, more wiggle, and more explosion. His downhill game has a lot of Beal in it. The main differentiators in his offense, from other wings with questionable jumpshots, I think can give him some success in the NBA:

-First step and ability to attack with his left hand.
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-Can switch hands in traffic and has body control in tight space
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-Comfort with his back to the basket
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"No middle" sums up NBA defensive philosophy and why ambidexterity is crucial to beat it
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Obviously these are highlights and I'm not saying he will be a superstar. Hopefully our bench could be TBJ as Shaun Livingston and Okoro as Iguodala. Bonga would still start. I think defense is contagious so picking a high energy defender could bolster the group overall. I recommend watching his ESPN breakdown as he seems like he "gets it". He or Okongwu would be good gets. The only problem is they are consistently projected 5-8 so unlikely we get a chance at either.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1096 » by doclinkin » Thu Aug 13, 2020 2:51 pm

Shoe wrote: He or Okongwu would be good gets. The only problem is they are consistently projected 5-8 so unlikely we get a chance at either.



However! Given that we have a 25% chance at picks 1-4. I'd like to see people's Top 4 pick and see if we have consensus. Other than say: "trade down, trade down, trade down..." (which whether we all agree or not is a strategy that has been thoroughly discussed).

Is there are player in the Top 4 that would alter the team in a positive way?
And how do you see the fit with the squad as currently constructed?
And/or what would we need to maximize their skill set.

Vision. Speculation. Plan. Go.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1097 » by Shoe » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:55 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Shoe wrote: He or Okongwu would be good gets. The only problem is they are consistently projected 5-8 so unlikely we get a chance at either.



However! Given that we have a 25% chance at picks 1-4. I'd like to see people's Top 4 pick and see if we have consensus. Other than say: "trade down, trade down, trade down..." (which whether we all agree or not is a strategy that has been thoroughly discussed).

Is there are player in the Top 4 that would alter the team in a positive way?
And how do you see the fit with the squad as currently constructed?
And/or what would we need to maximize their skill set.

Vision. Speculation. Plan. Go.


Lamelo Ball is not on the Wizards radar I imagine. His dad already said he doesn't want him getting drafted by the Warriors to play behind Steph and Klay so I can't imagine the public comments he'd make about his son playing behind Wall. Also I don't think Ted wants his dad on the sidelines. Maybe they can overlook all of that but I think they want to avoid drama.

Then there's Edwards and Wiseman. I think if they had better basketball IQs they would be runaway top prospects.

So if we do move into the top 4 of the draft I'd see it as
1. Wiseman
2. Edwards
3.
4.

Assuming they're staying away from Ball looking through the remaining prospects
- Toppin is ready to go, but we have Hachimura and potentially Bertans signed, and he's not a good front court defender
- Avdija is a wing with not a lot of burst and not an outside shooter.
- Haliburton has a slight frame and already had a broken wrist end his season.
- Hayes is a very young ball dominant player.

I think Okongwu, and even Okoro could be in play as high as 3.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1098 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:59 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:There's a small chance that Okuru could be a Jimmy Butler type player, but even an over-achiever like Butler was just an average player in his first 3 seasons.

I wouldn't say so, Ruz -- Butler was terrific his first 3 years; he just wasn't a volume scorer.

But, even in that case, nate's point holds: Butler was a 4-year college player. Okoro's 1 and done. He's not a player I covet at all.

You have some weird definitions of what is a terrific player. Apparently one requirement is that he can't shoot.

We've got a disconnect somehow.

Let's leave out Butler's rookie year -- 359 minutes.

He played 2140 minutes his 2d year. His TS% was 57.4% -- just above his career average! He was over 38% on 3's & over 80% from the line. 2 pt% was at his career average. I don't see "can't shoot" in that, Ruz.

But, he didn't shoot a lot. That is, he "...wasn't a volume scorer."

Overall, the rest of his numbers were pretty close to his career average. Because he wasn't a threat to shoot as often as he did later, his assists were down. But, for the same reason, his turnovers were well below his career average, & his offensive rebounds were way up as well.

In fairness, there was a little drop off his 3d season. He was still quite good but not the monster he's been overall in his career.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1099 » by Ruzious » Thu Aug 13, 2020 6:24 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:I wouldn't say so, Ruz -- Butler was terrific his first 3 years; he just wasn't a volume scorer.

But, even in that case, nate's point holds: Butler was a 4-year college player. Okoro's 1 and done. He's not a player I covet at all.

You have some weird definitions of what is a terrific player. Apparently one requirement is that he can't shoot.

We've got a disconnect somehow.

Let's leave out Butler's rookie year -- 359 minutes.

He played 2140 minutes his 2d year. His TS% was 57.4% -- just above his career average! He was over 38% on 3's & over 80% from the line. 2 pt% was at his career average. I don't see "can't shoot" in that, Ruz.

But, he didn't shoot a lot. That is, he "...wasn't a volume scorer."

Overall, the rest of his numbers were pretty close to his career average. Because he wasn't a threat to shoot as often as he did later, his assists were down. But, for the same reason, his turnovers were well below his career average, & his offensive rebounds were way up as well.

In fairness, there was a little drop off his 3d season. He was still quite good but not the monster he's been overall in his career.

You know you're guilty of this - picking out and focusing on the miniscule stats while ignoring the big ones. You're really pointing out the .381 he shot in year 2 and ignoring the .182 in year 1 and the .283 in year 3 - especially when year 3 was the first one that he shot a significant volume of 3's. Why do you make me point these obvious things out? You're really focusing on only year 2's percentage when he made only ZERO point 7 3's per 36 minutes. He was a bad shooter in his 1st 3 years - period - unless you define people like DeAndre Jordan and Tyson Chandler as good shooters. Darvin Ham must have been a good shooter because he made more than 50% of his FG's... while averaging 3 points a game... and 2 broken rims per game.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1100 » by payitforward » Thu Aug 13, 2020 7:16 pm

nate33 wrote:
Ruzious wrote:i think most mocks have Okoru going in the top 10, so I wouldn't count on trading down for him. I'm not a fan, because it's so hard for wings who... basically can't shoot - to excel in the NBA. Maybe he'll develop a shot, but if I'm a GM - I don't bet my job on it.

Yeah, if his shot does come around, it will probably take 4 years for it to happen. So he won't be a very useful player until his contract is up.

If you are drafting a role player, it's important that he develops into a useful player within 2-3 years so at least you reap some value out of that rookie contract. There's no advantage to paying a role player full market value after his rookie deal is up. You can always find role players at full market value in free agency.

This is such a key point. & so rarely grasped.
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