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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1241 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 9, 2020 6:06 pm

Here are the comments from NBA scouts on who the Zards might take at #9 and how they might fit in. The scouts didn't think either Haliburton or Hayes were good fits so for the sake of not making this any longer I didn't include those comments.

This is from The Athletic.

The Wizards have significant defensive issues. Rookies, even ones who turn into really good defenders, are almost never good at defense. But by year two or three, what kind of impact can Okongwu make on defense?

Scout 1: We’re talking about a guy who gets (compared) to Bam Adebayo, and I don’t think he has the same offensive ceiling as Bam, but he may have similar defensive potential to Bam. We can go look at exactly what Bam’s numbers and metrics were as a rookie, but my perception is that he was good but not great as a rookie defender. So, I think you probably see some of the same with Okongwu, which is — if he hits being Bam-level defensively, even if he’s not as good as offense, I don’t think you’re gonna see that fully realized in the first year. But I think he’s a very good prospect, and I think that he would be better defensively than Thomas Bryant would be, even as a rookie. … He will be great in a defensive scheme where he’s asked to get up to the level of the screen, impact the ball and recover. We haven’t fully seen how good he’ll be as a switcher. I don’t think he’s gonna be elite as a switcher, but I think he’ll be at least good enough that when you really need to switch, you can switch with him and he’ll do enough to make that a good option.

Vassell seems like he can defend, run the floor and shoot the 3. Can he be more than that?

Scout 2: I think that’s pretty good. If you get a really good 3-and-D player at No. 9, I think you’ve done OK. … He’s probably gonna improve a little bit. He’s a hard-working kid. … His defense, his 3-point shot are gonna get him on the court, and then I could see him being a very good ball-mover type. I think he’s gonna be a good teammate. I think he’ll fit in with good players because he’s gonna stretch the floor and he’s not gonna take shots that are bad shots. I think he fits in well with a winning organization.

Nesmith got hurt and missed basically all of conference play. How are teams evaluating him, considering there are no workouts right now? Are teams concerned about his medicals considering they can’t do their own medical evaluations?

Scout 2: Yeah, probably a tiny bit. It’s a little harder because you have this long draft process this year and then you only have so many games to watch. So, I view him somewhat similar to Vassell in terms of their pros. I think Aaron is probably a little bit of a better athlete. But Devin, I think he’s probably a little safer of a player and a better defensive player.

What do you think is better about Vassell’s defense?

Scout 2: Just mentality-wise. I think most of defense is in the head, and I think Devin is probably a little better of a competitor. Just a little tougher, a little more physical, a little more of a defender’s mentality. I think Devin moves laterally better. I think Aaron is a little stiff, to me, laterally. I think Aaron is gonna wind up being a 3, whereas Devin can probably be more 2 or 3. I don’t know if Aaron is quick enough to guard 2s.

Shaddiq Bey is kind of a bucket getter. Beal will take a lot of shots. So will Wall. What are your thoughts on him fitting in as a potential starter on the wing?

Scout 2: He’s kind of an everything. I might be in the minority. I’m a huge fan of his. I think you can play him with anybody. I think he has the ability to play some point guard, like he did at Villanova, where he brought the ball up because their point guard was injured. I think he’s tough. I think he can shoot. I think he’ll defend anyone because he has the right mentality for it. I look at him as a Swiss Army Knife that can play with anybody. I honestly do. I think he’d be fine off the ball. He’d be fine with more stuff run for him. I look at him as an ideal type of fit with anybody, honestly.

Okoro is definitely not a shooter. Does he have to play with the ball to be effective? And if that’s so, does that mean he has to be a primary option to be effective?

Scout 2: No, I don’t think so. I don’t look at him as a primary option. And I think the challenge ultimately becomes: If he’s not a primary option or doesn’t project as a primary option, how early can you take him? He’s a physical anomaly. He’s got a great body. He’s a good athlete — not great athlete, but good athlete. He’s a really good defender and a tough, physical kid. That’s probably what I like about him the most. Although he’s not a good shooter, I don’t look at his mechanics and go, ‘OK, that’s not gonna be able to get fixed.’
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1242 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 9, 2020 7:31 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Shoe wrote:..If there is an unexpected pick I could see Maxey being it. There's been a solid run of late lottery Kentucky guards - Herro, SGA, Murray, Booker(Knight, Monk the exceptions). Maxey shot 83% on a respectable free throw rate.

I've been a proponent of Maxey for a while. I love his shiftiness, footwork, and all around offensive arsenal while being an above average defender that always gives effort.
I think he is Cory Joseph if his offensive game stagnates... but he could be Lou Williams and thats where he gets very interesting outside the top 10

You "love his shiftiness." How do you feel about his shooting .292 on three-pointers?

"He could be Lou Williams... very interesting outside the top 10" -- Lou was chosen #45 in the draft & became a terrific shooter in the league. Do you know how many guys someone thought "could be Lou Williams" but washed out of the league?

What position will Maxey play? Will he be a PG? 3.7 assists per 40 minutes tells me there is little reason to believe it. Will he be a SG? He's 6'3" -- & see above under ".292 FG% on 3's" -- of course he zooms all the way up to .492 on 2-point attempts.

& what does it mean that there's been "a solid run of late lottery Kentucky guards?" Do you really think Tyler Herro being good will make Tyrese Maxey a better player? Please explain how that magic works.

Guess what: Tyler Herro posted good numbers as a college Freshman -- especially on high-value translatable skills. That's what made him a likely pick "outside the top 10."

To be sure, Maxey is a solid defender who gives effort & seems to enjoy that side of the game. That's a plus. & he's a good athlete. He could turn out great -- after all, anything can happen.

But, in the draft, you try to pick guys who are most predictable for success & have the highest ceiling. That's your calculus: how good can he be? how likely is he to be that good or close?

I could see Maxey -- maybe -- near the end of R1. At best.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1243 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 9, 2020 8:40 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Shoe wrote:..If there is an unexpected pick I could see Maxey being it. There's been a solid run of late lottery Kentucky guards - Herro, SGA, Murray, Booker(Knight, Monk the exceptions). Maxey shot 83% on a respectable free throw rate.

I've been a proponent of Maxey for a while. I love his shiftiness, footwork, and all around offensive arsenal while being an above average defender that always gives effort.
I think he is Cory Joseph if his offensive game stagnates... but he could be Lou Williams and thats where he gets very interesting outside the top 10

You "love his shiftiness." How do you feel about his shooting .292 on three-pointers?

"He could be Lou Williams... very interesting outside the top 10" -- Lou was chosen #45 in the draft & became a terrific shooter in the league. Do you know how many guys someone thought "could be Lou Williams" but washed out of the league?

What position will Maxey play? Will he be a PG? 3.7 assists per 40 minutes tells me there is little reason to believe it. Will he be a SG? He's 6'3" -- & see above under ".292 FG% on 3's" -- of course he zooms all the way up to .492 on 2-point attempts.

& what does it mean that there's been "a solid run of late lottery Kentucky guards?" Do you really think Tyler Herro being good will make Tyrese Maxey a better player? Please explain how that magic works.

Guess what: Tyler Herro posted good numbers as a college Freshman -- especially on high-value translatable skills. That's what made him a likely pick "outside the top 10."

To be sure, Maxey is a solid defender who gives effort & seems to enjoy that side of the game. That's a plus. & he's a good athlete. He could turn out great -- after all, anything can happen.

But, in the draft, you try to pick guys who are most predictable for success & have the highest ceiling. That's your calculus: how good can he be? how likely is he to be that good or close?

I could see Maxey -- maybe -- near the end of R1. At best.

Shiftiness: What I’m alluding to is Harden/Doncic type athlete… Not explosive, but solid 1st step and the ability to decelerate (Often overlooked attribute). This, combined with his strength, and use of both hands allow him to finish at the basket and draw fouls.
Shooting: I trust his form (See FT%) and his lower half will show up in the NBA.

Position: In 2020, you don’t need a PG or SG. What you need is someone who can score/threaten the defense as a scorer, make the right pass, and defend the perimeter. His quickness and strength allow him to guard PG’s and most SG’s.

I would have a hart time taking him in the lotto, but I wouldn’t hesitate in the 20’s

***I never mentioned anything about Herro or UK players…
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1244 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 9, 2020 10:10 pm

pcbothwel wrote:***I never mentioned anything about Herro or UK players…

It was Shoe, not you, who supported the idea of Maxey with that "solid run of late lottery Kentucky guards -- Herro, SGA,..." etc.

pcbothwel wrote:Shiftiness: What I’m alluding to is Harden/Doncic type athlete… Not explosive, but solid 1st step and the ability to decelerate (Often overlooked attribute). This, combined with his strength, and use of both hands allow him to finish at the basket and draw fouls. ...

I'm not questioning his "shiftiness" -- but come on man... don't support the idea by importing Harden & Doncic. That's exactly like Shoe's argument. Harden was killer college player, dominant. Doncic looks to be on his way to being the best player in the game -- along w/ Giannis. Nothing about those 2 guys -- zero, zip -- imparts any predictability whatever to Tyrese Maxey.

Maxey played 1069 minutes at Kentucky & was not good in those minutes. Period.

He shot .833 from the foul line -- his only good number (& the only stat Shoe thinks is worth quoting). His 2 pt. % contradicts the idea that he has any particular ability "to finish at the basket," though yes he shot an above average # of FTs per 40 minutes for a guard.

OTOH, his teammate Immanuel Quickley shot 40% more FTs per 40 minutes, & his FT% was .923! He also took 40% more 3-point shots per 40 minutes at a % of .428 -- again, wow! But no one sees Quickley as a R1 pick.

pcbothwel wrote:Shooting: I trust his form (See FT%)....

You don't mean that you "trust his form," you mean you are "willing to take a chance on" his form -- i.e. given other qualities (see below).

Only, here's the thing: straight out, if a college player has bad shooting numbers, that fact lowers the likelihood of his being a good shooter in the NBA compared with a guy who has good shooting numbers. Assuming same level of competition.

That's true of any player, which makes it true of Tyrese Maxey. If you can't bring yourself to admit the truth of that statement, then we are not in the realm of empirical observation. Instead we are in the realm of the crystal ball. But, w/o being critical, you don't have one! I don't either.

Why are you willing to look away from this fact & take a chance on his form? Because
pcbothwel wrote:...his lower half will show up in the NBA.

This has to refer to defense, since whatever effect his hips/feet have on offense would show itself in college as well as in the pros. Fair enough, his hips and feet will enable him to be an effective man-to-man defender in the NBA -- esp. given his commitment to defense. No problem. & that's a good thing about Tyrese Maxey: he has a solid chance to be a good NBA defender.

pcbothwel wrote:Position: In 2020, you don’t need a PG or SG. What you need is someone who can score/threaten the defense as a scorer, make the right pass, and defend the perimeter. His quickness and strength allow him to guard PG’s and most SG’s.

I understand the concept of positionless basketball, though I don't think you are quite interpreting it correctly. Thus, of the top 15 guys in assists per 40 minutes this year, 13 of them were point guards. The other 2 were LeBron James & Nikola Jokic.

As to the rest of the formula, again, so far Tyrese Maxey has not shown that he can score effectively/efficiently. He has not shown that he can threaten the defense as a scorer, & -- is assists are a measure -- he has not shown that he is especially proficient at making the right pass.

pcbothwel wrote:I would have a hart time taking him in the lotto, but I wouldn’t hesitate in the 20’s.

Whether & where to take a guy depends 100% on who else is available at that spot. How could it not? On that and nothing else. Without some context from you on that, it's hard to know what you mean by "I wouldn't hesitate in the 20's."

Note -- I'm more puzzled by why people like Maxey than I am anything else. I.e. not seeking argument -- I just don't get it.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1245 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:45 am

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
The only players that would cause me reservation would be Okongwu, Hayes, Wiseman, Haliburton, Toppin, Edwards, Ball and Vassell.
Im low on Ball and think Toppin is a bad fit, but I would at least look at the trade environment for them.

I take Poku above Avdija, Hampton, Green, Bey, Okoro, Cole Anthony, etc.

Dream would be to trade with Boston for 14, 26, and 30.
14: Poku
26: Tyler Bey
30: Tre Jones
37: Tillman
UDFA: Mason Jones

Wall / Ish / T. Jones
Beal / Brown / M. Jones
Bonga / Bey / Schofield
Rui / Bertans / Poku
Bryant / Tillman / Wagner

But alas....


No offense, but this to me is a BAD DREAM/almost nightmare.

For one thing, it's too many rookies on a team with young prospects. Just like when Juwan, Rasheed, and Chris Webber were teammates of Calbert Cheaney; the team had TOO MUCH YOUTH to retain contractually. PLUS, too much youth in a league where experience wins. Plus, loser coach.

No way IMO.

Awright, CCJ with the record-topping 8 posts in a row! I believe I once did 6, but you've lapped me!

well, first off we'd never get 14, 26 & 30 for 9 -- that's way too much for Boston to have to give.

That said, look at your own scenario, ken -- you want Jalen Smith &, ideally Tyler Bey. Thing is, there's no reason to take Smith @#9 -- he's sure to be there at #14. So right away it makes sense to trade 9 for 14 & something else of value.

That's especially true if we want Tyler Bey -- he isn't going to be there when our #37 rolls around, but he might be there at 26. So there's the reason for the trade right there!

Btw, even though you can argue that "experience wins," this team ain't winning anything any time soon! What we are doing is rebuilding. That you do best by making great draft choices -- & if you have too many good young players, well, there are worse problems to have! :)) You can always trade....


:D

I can always blame it on mental health... the B-word. Nah, I just am pysched to see real sports on TV. COVID19 has been a beast and I'm FINALLY feeling the NBA playoffs and some sense of normalcy. That and this board is dying IMO. NOW, you've just got to post 9 in a row, pif! :D

Jalen Smith SHOULD NOT BE THERE at 14 EVEN IF HE PROBABLY WILL BE.

Remember Paul Millsap? I said then dude's a lottery pick. I'm CERTAIN Jalen Smith belongs in the lottery. Why?

https://www.nbadraft.net/players/jalen-smith/#per-40-minutes

per 40 minutes - 20 pts, 13.4 rebs, 1 ast, 1stl, 3 blks on 60% FG and 37% 3Pt


If you look at the delta, or marked improvement by Jalen Smith in virtually every stat from frosh to soph season, it would be more than reasonable to PROJECT MORE IMPROVEMENT to follow.

The guy hits threes, blocks shots, runs well, and is A MUCH BETTER PROSPECT THAN RUI HACHIMURA who went #9 this past draft.

Don't believe me? Try an expert (Matt Norlander CBS Sports as of 6/25/20) https://www.si.com/college/maryland/basketball/nba-draft-projections-jalen-smith-first-round

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports released their mock draft on Wednesday based solely on their projected success in the NBA, which gave Smith his highest projected landing spot. Rated as the fourth-best center, Norlander has Smith at 14 on his board to the Portland Trail Blazers.

“Might have some growing pains early, but Jalen Smith is a lean offensive weapon who is going to make a living hitting buckets from four and 24 feet from the rim. Needs to pack on some muscle, but the encouraging thing on Smith is his steady improvement -- almost in the form of a gradual growth curve -- from the start of his college career until this past March. He ranked fourth nationally in box plus/minus last season (+12.0). His stock is hard to pin down, but his ceiling as an offensive player is too high for me to place him any lower.”


The dude played in a very tough conference! Obi Toppin is two years older than Jalen Smith.

Want more? https://www.grizzlybearblues.com/2020/6/4/21279095/2020-nba-draft-profiles-jalen-smith-memphis-grizzlies-maryland-terrapins

Advanced Stats Strength: PER, Box +/-, Def win shares, EFG%, and Def rebounding.


Jalen is strong in PER, Box +/-, Def win shares, EFG% and Def rebounding. Sort of Dennis Rodman type with offense. Like a Pascal Siakim, but maybe BETTER offensively?

To me, with Wall coming back this is the perfect player to catch lob finishes or clean up dunks in transition.

This kid projects to be an all star some day IMHO. I look at things like he comes from a military Dad. To me, he's going to be coachable and he's humble and a great team player.

This kid's a can't miss and I'm dumbfounded what draftniks DO NOT LIKE about him.
2020 Wizards SHOULD Draft:

(Unless they move up in the top to draft Wiseman/Okongwu)

JALEN SMITH and either Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, Udoka Azubuike, or TYLER BEY (if they get lucky and he slips in the draft).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1246 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:57 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:This kid's a can't miss and I'm dumbfounded what draftniks DO NOT LIKE about him.


CCJ... I like Smith, but I'll give you some reason for pause.
1) Frame/Strength: I know you loved ole Thicc boys like Dejuan Blair and Millsap with low center of gravity and long arms. Smith is the exact opposite. He has Twig legs, high/stiff hips, and a mediocre wingspan. He doesn't do well with creating/holding position on either side of the ball.

2) Positional value: Jalen Smith is a 5. He doesnt have the hips or feet to guard the perimeter as a 4 on defense and he has no vision passing out of pressure or driving to his left on offense.
So with that said, is he going to be better than Thomas Bryant? Is he going to better value at 9 than Okongwu? How about Reed, Stewart, Oturu or Tillman at 37? Or PIF's new crush Nathan Knight in the 50's?

I agree that he'll probably play a decade in the league, but making the AS team as a big while not being a great athlete (Not bouncy, has to load), showing below average awareness/vision, and not being an elite defender seem extremely unlikely.
To me, he projects as Ibaka offensively without the defensive instincts. Solid player, but not an All-Star.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1247 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:20 pm

CCJ -- however good Jalen Smith is, if you can get a player at #14 you do not pick him at #9. Period.

The team who has #14 will give you that pick plus something else for the #9 pick. In fact, you'd expect to get the #29 or 30 pick along with #14 in return for #9.

As it happens, Boston owns #14 & #30 -- & I'd be delighted to take those 2 picks for #9 (in most scenarios: obviously you'd wait to make the trade official until you saw who was on the board).

Edit: just noticed your list of guys we should take @#37. Obviously, we would have a better shot at Tyler Bey w/ the #30 pick than the #37. & we'd still have #37 too. Or, trade 30 & 37 to get up to say 24 to make it almost certain.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1248 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:06 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:This kid's a can't miss and I'm dumbfounded what draftniks DO NOT LIKE about him.


CCJ... I like Smith, but I'll give you some reason for pause.
1) Frame/Strength: I know you loved ole Thicc boys like Dejuan Blair and Millsap with low center of gravity and long arms. Smith is the exact opposite. He has Twig legs, high/stiff hips, and a mediocre wingspan. He doesn't do well with creating/holding position on either side of the ball.

2) Positional value: Jalen Smith is a 5. He doesnt have the hips or feet to guard the perimeter as a 4 on defense and he has no vision passing out of pressure or driving to his left on offense.
So with that said, is he going to be better than Thomas Bryant? Is he going to better value at 9 than Okongwu? How about Reed, Stewart, Oturu or Tillman at 37? Or PIF's new crush Nathan Knight in the 50's?

I agree that he'll probably play a decade in the league, but making the AS team as a big while not being a great athlete (Not bouncy, has to load), showing below average awareness/vision, and not being an elite defender seem extremely unlikely.
To me, he projects as Ibaka offensively without the defensive instincts. Solid player, but not an All-Star.

Obviously, this is a valuable POV from which to look at Smith -- or any prospect (see our discussion of Maxey). But, it is not the only perspective, it is not determinative, & it's hard to believe that it's even the single most important perspective.

To me, the 2 things that jump out about Smith are 1) killer numbers as a Sophomore & 2) huge improvement from Freshman to Sophomore years. Those are both strongly predictive of success in the NBA.

Now, despite his having put up great numbers in an extremely competitive conference, it is certainly possible that physical limitations impact his (or any player's) ceiling. But, that's not the only question about a draft prospect. In fact, I'm pretty sure it's not even the most important question!

For one thing, it's hard to predict "ceiling" with significant accuracy. For another, likelihood of success is more consequential than potential ultimate level of success.

This takes us back to Tyrese Maxey. His Freshman numbers, overall, were not good at all. Plus, he played almost 1100 minutes, so they should reflect where he is as a player right now.

Yet, if I understand you (correct me if I'm wrong about this), you seem to have Smith & Maxey rated at about the same point in the draft. This can only mean that you are leaving a whole bunch of things out of the picture -- above all "bust potential" but more generally the whole question of a player's likely success at any given level (as opposed to the pure picture of his "ceiling").

Why? Well, above all, when there is no downside to making wrong choices, one is far more likely to look at "potential," "high ceiling," uncritically. GMs can be fired; fans can't be.

If I were a GM, & there were only 2 players left in the draft, Maxey & Smith, I wouldn't have a moment's hesitation in choosing Smith. Your own objective view of him would provide sufficient reason: "(Smith will) probably play a decade in the league, ...(as a) Solid player, but not an All-Star."

I wouldn't take Jalen Smith at #9, certainly not over Okongwu, but I do understand why he's rising in the mocks as the weeks go on.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1249 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 10, 2020 5:21 pm

Shaddiq Bey is kind of a bucket getter. Beal will take a lot of shots. So will Wall. What are your thoughts on him fitting in as a potential starter on the wing?

Scout 2: He’s kind of an everything. I might be in the minority. I’m a huge fan of his. I think you can play him with anybody. I think he has the ability to play some point guard, like he did at Villanova, where he brought the ball up because their point guard was injured. I think he’s tough. I think he can shoot. I think he’ll defend anyone because he has the right mentality for it. I look at him as a Swiss Army Knife that can play with anybody. I honestly do. I think he’d be fine off the ball. He’d be fine with more stuff run for him. I look at him as an ideal type of fit with anybody, honestly.


Nice to see someone agrees with me on Saddiq Bey - even if he spells his name differently. I think he might become a Middleton type player.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1250 » by DCZards » Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:01 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Shaddiq Bey is kind of a bucket getter. Beal will take a lot of shots. So will Wall. What are your thoughts on him fitting in as a potential starter on the wing?

Scout 2: He’s kind of an everything. I might be in the minority. I’m a huge fan of his. I think you can play him with anybody. I think he has the ability to play some point guard, like he did at Villanova, where he brought the ball up because their point guard was injured. I think he’s tough. I think he can shoot. I think he’ll defend anyone because he has the right mentality for it. I look at him as a Swiss Army Knife that can play with anybody. I honestly do. I think he’d be fine off the ball. He’d be fine with more stuff run for him. I look at him as an ideal type of fit with anybody, honestly.


Nice to see someone agrees with me on Saddiq Bey - even if he spells his name differently. I think he might become a Middleton type player.


Actually, your spelling of Bey's first name is correct. The misspelling is mine and not the author of the article.

I agree with you on Saddiq. I saw him play several times in his 2 years at 'Nova and I was impressed with his steady improvement. Middleton is an interesting comparison.

I said this a few days ago about Bey:

Of the players on your list of those likely to be there at 9, I've get the best vibe about Vassell. His D, 3pt shooting and athleticism should transfer easily to the NBA. He'll contribute right away, which is something I believe the Zards will be looking for in this year's draft.

Bey may be the sleeper in this group. He gets downgraded because he lacks the explosion and athleticism of a Vassell, but Bey is a very good defender and an outstanding 3pt shooter.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1251 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:48 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:This kid's a can't miss and I'm dumbfounded what draftniks DO NOT LIKE about him.


CCJ... I like Smith, but I'll give you some reason for pause.
1) Frame/Strength: I know you loved ole Thicc boys like Dejuan Blair and Millsap with low center of gravity and long arms. Smith is the exact opposite. He has Twig legs, high/stiff hips, and a mediocre wingspan. He doesn't do well with creating/holding position on either side of the ball.

2) Positional value: Jalen Smith is a 5. He doesnt have the hips or feet to guard the perimeter as a 4 on defense and he has no vision passing out of pressure or driving to his left on offense.
So with that said, is he going to be better than Thomas Bryant? Is he going to better value at 9 than Okongwu? How about Reed, Stewart, Oturu or Tillman at 37? Or PIF's new crush Nathan Knight in the 50's?

I agree that he'll probably play a decade in the league, but making the AS team as a big while not being a great athlete (Not bouncy, has to load), showing below average awareness/vision, and not being an elite defender seem extremely unlikely.
To me, he projects as Ibaka offensively without the defensive instincts. Solid player, but not an All-Star.


Paul Reed is a very very solid prospect just going by his defensive numbers. I would not draft Smith before Okongwu.

pcbothwel, all I can say is this is very-well thought. You've put a lot more analysis into this than I have. Let's see how the draft shakes out with regard to Jalen Smith and others you've mentioned.
2020 Wizards SHOULD Draft:

(Unless they move up in the top to draft Wiseman/Okongwu)

JALEN SMITH and either Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, Udoka Azubuike, or TYLER BEY (if they get lucky and he slips in the draft).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1252 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:50 pm

payitforward wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:This kid's a can't miss and I'm dumbfounded what draftniks DO NOT LIKE about him.


CCJ... I like Smith, but I'll give you some reason for pause.
1) Frame/Strength: I know you loved ole Thicc boys like Dejuan Blair and Millsap with low center of gravity and long arms. Smith is the exact opposite. He has Twig legs, high/stiff hips, and a mediocre wingspan. He doesn't do well with creating/holding position on either side of the ball.

2) Positional value: Jalen Smith is a 5. He doesnt have the hips or feet to guard the perimeter as a 4 on defense and he has no vision passing out of pressure or driving to his left on offense.
So with that said, is he going to be better than Thomas Bryant? Is he going to better value at 9 than Okongwu? How about Reed, Stewart, Oturu or Tillman at 37? Or PIF's new crush Nathan Knight in the 50's?

I agree that he'll probably play a decade in the league, but making the AS team as a big while not being a great athlete (Not bouncy, has to load), showing below average awareness/vision, and not being an elite defender seem extremely unlikely.
To me, he projects as Ibaka offensively without the defensive instincts. Solid player, but not an All-Star.

Obviously, this is a valuable POV from which to look at Smith -- or any prospect (see our discussion of Maxey). But, it is not the only perspective, it is not determinative, & it's hard to believe that it's even the single most important perspective.

To me, the 2 things that jump out about Smith are 1) killer numbers as a Sophomore & 2) huge improvement from Freshman to Sophomore years. Those are both strongly predictive of success in the NBA.

Now, despite his having put up great numbers in an extremely competitive conference, it is certainly possible that physical limitations impact his (or any player's) ceiling. But, that's not the only question about a draft prospect. In fact, I'm pretty sure it's not even the most important question!

For one thing, it's hard to predict "ceiling" with significant accuracy. For another, likelihood of success is more consequential than potential ultimate level of success.

This takes us back to Tyrese Maxey. His Freshman numbers, overall, were not good at all. Plus, he played almost 1100 minutes, so they should reflect where he is as a player right now.

Yet, if I understand you (correct me if I'm wrong about this), you seem to have Smith & Maxey rated at about the same point in the draft. This can only mean that you are leaving a whole bunch of things out of the picture -- above all "bust potential" but more generally the whole question of a player's likely success at any given level (as opposed to the pure picture of his "ceiling").

Why? Well, above all, when there is no downside to making wrong choices, one is far more likely to look at "potential," "high ceiling," uncritically. GMs can be fired; fans can't be.

If I were a GM, & there were only 2 players left in the draft, Maxey & Smith, I wouldn't have a moment's hesitation in choosing Smith. Your own objective view of him would provide sufficient reason: "(Smith will) probably play a decade in the league, ...(as a) Solid player, but not an All-Star."

I wouldn't take Jalen Smith at #9, certainly not over Okongwu, but I do understand why he's rising in the mocks as the weeks go on.


I think Okongwu's going earlier than 9.

Otherwise, Smith's going to be worth the #9 pick even if he slips to round two. I've seen this happen in the past with other players.
2020 Wizards SHOULD Draft:

(Unless they move up in the top to draft Wiseman/Okongwu)

JALEN SMITH and either Xavier Tillman, Paul Reed, Udoka Azubuike, or TYLER BEY (if they get lucky and he slips in the draft).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1253 » by 80sballboy » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:17 am

Interesting to see Jalen Smith move up the draft charts. Stix is one of the best Maryland prospects in years (I know that's not saying much) and I would have loved to see the Wiz take him-if we had made the playoffs and had a mid-first round pick. A little high for the ninth pick. I think he can play power forward at the next level and some center, but I don't know what he's like physically now. Has he added more muscle to his 225-pound frame? He definitely can protect the rim and has the smarts to be good.

I don't think Turgeon utilized him right, especially on offense. Wonder if he would have moved up had Maryland played in the NCAA Tournament. He's not a back-to-the basket old school big. He's a face-the-basket improving player who shot around 37% from long range and averaged 10.5 rebounds last season (2.4 blocks). Also curious to see length, vertical and combine stats, assuming they have some kind of virtual one. I know a 7-2 wingspan is reportedly what he has, which isn't great for a five. To me, he still needs to add strength.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacharycohen/2020/05/29/jalen-smith-could-be-the-most-under-appreciated-big-in-the-2020-nba-draft/#1d929b5e363b
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1254 » by queridiculo » Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:55 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Shaddiq Bey is kind of a bucket getter. Beal will take a lot of shots. So will Wall. What are your thoughts on him fitting in as a potential starter on the wing?

Scout 2: He’s kind of an everything. I might be in the minority. I’m a huge fan of his. I think you can play him with anybody. I think he has the ability to play some point guard, like he did at Villanova, where he brought the ball up because their point guard was injured. I think he’s tough. I think he can shoot. I think he’ll defend anyone because he has the right mentality for it. I look at him as a Swiss Army Knife that can play with anybody. I honestly do. I think he’d be fine off the ball. He’d be fine with more stuff run for him. I look at him as an ideal type of fit with anybody, honestly.


Nice to see someone agrees with me on Saddiq Bey - even if he spells his name differently. I think he might become a Middleton type player.


I really, really like Bey, I see him more like a Covington type.

I am a bit worried about his athleticism.

He doesn't have a lot of wiggle, not a great leaper and a bit of a plodder for a wing.

Strictly a north and south type player, but I like his physicality and the fact that he can make an impact all over the floor.

I am not sure about his fit alongside Hachimura, two tweeners could go really well, or really bad.

Underrated ball handler, has a knack to get open with a couple of dribbles, and I sometimes get Butler vibes from him with his ability get defenders on his shoulder.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1255 » by payitforward » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:26 pm

Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1256 » by Shoe » Sat Sep 12, 2020 5:00 pm

queridiculo wrote:
Ruzious wrote:
Shaddiq Bey is kind of a bucket getter. Beal will take a lot of shots. So will Wall. What are your thoughts on him fitting in as a potential starter on the wing?

Scout 2: He’s kind of an everything. I might be in the minority. I’m a huge fan of his. I think you can play him with anybody. I think he has the ability to play some point guard, like he did at Villanova, where he brought the ball up because their point guard was injured. I think he’s tough. I think he can shoot. I think he’ll defend anyone because he has the right mentality for it. I look at him as a Swiss Army Knife that can play with anybody. I honestly do. I think he’d be fine off the ball. He’d be fine with more stuff run for him. I look at him as an ideal type of fit with anybody, honestly.


Nice to see someone agrees with me on Saddiq Bey - even if he spells his name differently. I think he might become a Middleton type player.


I really, really like Bey, I see him more like a Covington type.

I am a bit worried about his athleticism.

He doesn't have a lot of wiggle, not a great leaper and a bit of a plodder for a wing.

Strictly a north and south type player, but I like his physicality and the fact that he can make an impact all over the floor.

I am not sure about his fit alongside Hachimura, two tweeners could go really well, or really bad.

Underrated ball handler, has a knack to get open with a couple of dribbles, and I sometimes get Butler vibes from him with his ability get defenders on his shoulder.


Saddiq Bey is very intriguing at 9. Comfort with his back to the basket, dribbling with his left, throwing his weight around. That part of the game is non-existent right now for Vassell and Nesmith.

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1257 » by DCZards » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:35 pm

Saddiq Bey's D is one of the most impressive aspects of his game. This scouting report is by a guy who calls Bey "the most underrated prospect" in the draft. Bey's great D is the focus of the video.

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1258 » by Ruzious » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:48 pm

DCZards wrote:Saddiq Bey's D is one of the most impressive aspects of his game. This scouting report is by a guy who calls Bey "the most underrated prospect" in the draft. Bey's great D is the focus of the video.


Nice. He really does have an all-around game - though I'd like to see him rebound better. Like I've said, he reminds me of Middleton.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1259 » by prime1time » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:37 am

The challenge with Bey is how does he fit into this team defensively. Rui and Bertans don’t play defense. So it’s tough to see us adding another forward who can’t bring something defensively.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1260 » by prime1time » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:56 am

DCZards wrote:Saddiq Bey's D is one of the most impressive aspects of his game. This scouting report is by a guy who calls Bey "the most underrated prospect" in the draft. Bey's great D is the focus of the video.


I would contend with the notion “great D”. How many great NBA defenders averaged less than 1 steal and 1 block a game? There’s a basic level of athleticism that a player needs to have to be a great defender in the NBA and I don’t think Bey has it. That’s not to say we shouldn’t draft him, but it is to say that drafting him would be about what he could bring offensively vs what he could bring defensively.

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