ImageImageImageImageImage

2020 Draft

Moderators: nate33, montestewart, LyricalRico

DCZards
General Manager
Posts: 7,835
And1: 2,237
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1261 » by DCZards » Sun Sep 13, 2020 3:43 pm

prime1time wrote:
DCZards wrote:Saddiq Bey's D is one of the most impressive aspects of his game. This scouting report is by a guy who calls Bey "the most underrated prospect" in the draft. Bey's great D is the focus of the video.


I would contend with the notion “great D”. How many great NBA defenders averaged less than 1 steal and 1 block a game? There’s a basic level of athleticism that a player needs to have to be a great defender in the NBA and I don’t think Bey has it. That’s not to say we shouldn’t draft him, but it is to say that drafting him would be about what he could bring offensively vs what he could bring defensively.

Steals and blocks are just two factors to take into account when judging a player’s defense. And I’d argue that they aren’t the most important ones.

There are players who get a lot of steals but are awful defenders because they can’t stay in front of their man. And one of the best defenders in the game at the forward position, Kawhi Leonard, averages less than one block a game.

Check out the video above. Watch Bey’s man-on-man defense. It’s excellent. He may not be a great athlete but he has the ability and agility to stay in front of his man, even as they move from sideline to sideline or try to attack the basket. The video shows Bey doing this against smaller and quicker players.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 14,121
And1: 4,355
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1262 » by payitforward » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:35 pm

Saddiq Bey is a solid prospect all around. You never know 100% about anyone in advance, of course, but there's no reason to think he can't become a productive NBA wing. But that doesn't mean we should draft him at #9. In fact, I can't see how it has anything to do with that question.

Draft picks are the only thing the league gives you for free. So, to me, the goal -- the only goal -- should be to come out of this or any draft with the maximum player-value possible. If Saddiq Bey defines what you can get at #9, then it only makes sense to trade down.

In this draft it looks to me like there will be a bunch of solid prospects available in the late 'teens & twenties. Guys about whom one would say, as I did about Saddiq, "there's no reason to think he can't become a productive NBA wing" or guard or big.... Yet, because one would also say "you never know 100% about anyone in advance," it seems to me that we'd be better off, in this situation, to come away with more than 1 guy out of R1.

Of course, if we were a really good team, an already rebuilt & stocked team with demonstrated success & little roster room... well, then, we might not be able to take that route. But, we're not that team.

We have only 2 players from the Wizards of 2 years ago. We have only 7 other guys on guaranteed contracts -- & one of them (Admiral Schofield) looks like he isn't quite good enough to value on an NBA roster. Moreover, 2 of the remaining 6 guys on guaranteed contract don't seem to be good NBA players (Wagner & Robinson). Another is an expiring veteran journeyman (Smith). A 4th just finished his rookie year in which he did not excel (Rui), & only 2 (Bryant & Brown) can be said to have begun establishing themselves in the league at a "good" (possibly better) level.

We're going to pick up Bonga's option, maybe even sign him to a new deal, so you can make that 3. Add Beal & Wall for 5. If it's important to you believe in Rui's future as if it were really known that he's going to be a good player, fine.... Make the number 6 instead of 5. We have a good shot to retain Bertans too; I think we will.

IOW, going into this draft the absolutely maximum number of players we can say we're counting on for the team's future is 5-7. So, yeah, we'd be doing ourselves a favor to come out of the draft with at least 3 new guys.

If we trade down, & Saddiq Bey is on the board when our pick comes up, he's definitely worth considering.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
prime1time
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,468
And1: 790
Joined: Nov 02, 2016
         

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1263 » by prime1time » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:39 pm

DCZards wrote:
prime1time wrote:
DCZards wrote:Saddiq Bey's D is one of the most impressive aspects of his game. This scouting report is by a guy who calls Bey "the most underrated prospect" in the draft. Bey's great D is the focus of the video.


I would contend with the notion “great D”. How many great NBA defenders averaged less than 1 steal and 1 block a game? There’s a basic level of athleticism that a player needs to have to be a great defender in the NBA and I don’t think Bey has it. That’s not to say we shouldn’t draft him, but it is to say that drafting him would be about what he could bring offensively vs what he could bring defensively.

Steals and blocks are just two factors to take into account when judging a player’s defense. And I’d argue that they aren’t the most important ones.

There are players who get a lot of steals but are awful defenders because they can’t stay in front of their man. And one of the best defenders in the game at the forward position, Kawhi Leonard, averages less than one block a game.

Check out the video above. Watch Bey’s man-on-man defense. It’s excellent. He may not be a great athlete but he has the ability and agility to stay in front of his man, even as they move from sideline to sideline or try to attack the basket. The video shows Bey doing this against smaller and quicker players.

I saw the video. Blocks and steals by themselves don't mean much, but they are indicators of athleticism. And while Kawhi didn't average over 1 in both categories, his numbers are pretty clearly higher than Bey. A better question then is does Bey have the physical tools to be a good defender? Fluid hips and guarding smaller guards in college is one thing. How many average athletes are good defenders in the NBA?
DCZards
General Manager
Posts: 7,835
And1: 2,237
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1264 » by DCZards » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:58 pm

prime1time wrote:I saw the video. Blocks and steals by themselves don't mean much, but they are indicators of athleticism. And while Kawhi didn't average over 1 in both categories, his numbers are pretty clearly higher than Bey. A better question then is does Bey have the physical tools to be a good defender? Fluid hips and guarding smaller guards in college is one thing. How many average athletes are good defenders in the NBA?

I can think of at least one average (or slightly above average) athlete who is a great defender--Kawhi Leonard.
DCZards
General Manager
Posts: 7,835
And1: 2,237
Joined: Jul 16, 2005
Location: The Streets of DC

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1265 » by DCZards » Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:37 pm

payitforward wrote:Saddiq Bey is a solid prospect all around. You never know 100% about anyone in advance, of course, but there's no reason to think he can't become a productive NBA wing. But that doesn't mean we should draft him at #9. In fact, I can't see how it has anything to do with that question.

Draft picks are the only thing the league gives you for free. So, to me, the goal -- the only goal -- should be to come out of this or any draft with the maximum player-value possible. If Saddiq Bey defines what you can get at #9, then it only makes sense to trade down.

In this draft it looks to me like there will be a bunch of solid prospects available in the late 'teens & twenties. Guys about whom one would say, as I did about Saddiq, "there's no reason to think he can't become a productive NBA wing" or guard or big.... Yet, because one would also say "you never know 100% about anyone in advance," it seems to me that we'd be better off, in this situation, to come away with more than 1 guy out of R1.

Of course, if we were a really good team, an already rebuilt & stocked team with demonstrated success & little roster room... well, then, we might not be able to take that route. But, we're not that team.

We have only 2 players from the Wizards of 2 years ago. We have only 7 other guys on guaranteed contracts -- & one of them (Admiral Schofield) looks like he isn't quite good enough to value on an NBA roster. Moreover, 2 of the remaining 6 guys on guaranteed contract don't seem to be good NBA players (Wagner & Robinson). Another is an expiring veteran journeyman (Smith). A 4th just finished his rookie year in which he did not excel (Rui), & only 2 (Bryant & Brown) can be said to have begun establishing themselves in the league at a "good" (possibly better) level.

We're going to pick up Bonga's option, maybe even sign him to a new deal, so you can make that 3. Add Beal & Wall for 5. If it's important to you believe in Rui's future as if it were really known that he's going to be a good player, fine.... Make the number 6 instead of 5. We have a good shot to retain Bertans too; I think we will.

IOW, going into this draft the absolutely maximum number of players we can say we're counting on for the team's future is 5-7. So, yeah, we'd be doing ourselves a favor to come out of the draft with at least 3 new guys.

If we trade down, & Saddiq Bey is on the board when our pick comes up, he's definitely worth considering.

I’d be all over trading the 9th pick for two later first round picks—say one in the late teens and the other in 20s. Seems like most of us here would be all in for something like that.

But that kind of trade doesn't happen very often. So I prefer to discuss and debate what is more likely to happen--that the Zards will pick 9th and who they should take with that pick.

Ideally, I’d like to see them draft Okongwu. But I seriously doubt that he’ll still be available at 9. So I’m looking at guys like Vassell, Haliburton and Okoro. One of whom will almost certainly be available at 9. My outlier picks are Saddiq Bey and Precious Achiuwa.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 14,121
And1: 4,355
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1266 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:57 am

They don't happen often, but they do happen. There was a flurry of trades last year that moved picks from one team to another.

In truth, discussing a trade that might or might not happen isn't all that different from discussing a prospect whom we might either pick or pass on if we do have the opportunity. In fact, just as we discuss more than one prospect, so too we discuss more than one trade possibility.

That said, for sure we need to discuss prospects themselves -- more than one! Can't think about trades without having as much knowledge of prospects as we can develop. Plus, no matter how you look at it, a trade down is less likely than making the #9 pick. If only because it's more complicated.

Still, if we take a thorough look at prospects, a good number of them, we are able to get better at analyzing, & we have a chance to see how a trade might have worked out. Presumably, that kind of work would improve our ability to think about the draft in the years to come. Etc.

We've talked about a bunch of individuals we might take at #9. Early on some here really liked Oturu. Then Okoro & Okongwu. Then guys whose names did not start with O!

In that sense, I probably was guilty of overstatement to suggest that discussing Saddiq Bey doesn't have much to do with drafting him at #9. Overstatement b/c the discussion is still relevant to the question of drafting him -- even if not at #9 which I think would be a reach. Drafting him, for example, if we did wind up trading down.

Make any sense?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
User avatar
doclinkin
General Manager
Posts: 9,746
And1: 1,900
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1267 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:08 am

Ok based on various rankings here's my read on the Top 10:

Anthony Edwards. At the top of many mocks, but could fall to 9 based on team needs ahead of us. If so: Not interested. Athletic but low % scorer, not making great reads or decisions. Could be good defender, could improve, still lots of static in the gap between potential and what he is right now.

James Wiseman. Raw potential, with a combo of both size and athleticism. Bigs are no longer at a premium, but he won't fall. "You can't teach height". Front offices still look at athletic bigs with nimble feet and bouncy legs. Is he worth trading up for? My read: even if he develops like he should he will reach his potential in his 2nd contract at the earliest. His top end is as a phenom, all star, renaissance Big. There's a large delta between that and his floor. I'm not the guy buying a player based on potential, unless they also exhibit BBIQ and love of the game. So far he is fast hardware, slow hardware. Not the risk I take for burning assets on a trade up. But he's a marvel. Someone may end up very happy. He is in a position of need as a defending rebounding big.

LaMelo Ball. Fast mind. Great height for the position. Basketball lifer, this is what he does. Young but already professionally tested, but on losing Pro teams. Iffy shooting percentages, sometimey defense despite good tools. He makes reads and passes that others won't. May check out if he is not in winning situations? May fall to 9 if people dislike the intangibles. Worth it? Not worth trading up for, for me, so I'd listen to trade down talk if someone behind us wanted him, depending on who else was available.

Killian Hayes. Poise and precocious calm for a PG. Good size. More smooth than explosive. Tested as a pro in a good league, but not dominant there. Solid. Probably won't fall. Not sure I'm as excited about him as the market and scouts are. So: Same deal, if he fell I'd be curious who wanted him. No complaint if he were an understudy guard on this team, he's got the right attitude and will be able to carry the 2nd team until he pushes for a starting spot. As an asset though he would be undervalued out of the gate. Unless we needed an instant PG (knock wood). And even then I expect Ish would start. Not worth a trade up.

Deni Avdija. Flashy highlights. In a weaker league. Looks good on tape. But low shooting %. IF he fell? Not my kind of player (is he a dominant defender? can he get his own while gaurded or force fouls, can he hit from outside and stretch things, does he pass and make players around him better with spacing and reads -- if not standout in one of these categories, I'm looking around). And I doubt he matches the analytics (no ranged shot, etc). I listen for trades, but pass either way.

Onyeka Okongwu. My guy. If any of the above fall it is because a team picked him earlier than the mocks. His effort and attitude and defensive focus stand out more than his anthropometrics and athletics. And he will need to improve both passing and his jumper. But he fits exactly what we need next to either of Rui or Bryant. Or Bertans. Trade up? I would, yes.

Isaac Okoro. I don't like that he came up shortest against his toughest competition. Not my guy. If he slipped to 9 its probably because somebody I like more leapfrogged him. Not the kind of player that I expect teams behind us would offer anything to jump and snatch. So probably no great trade down is dangled. That said, good BBIQ, 'everybody eats' glue guy, good balance of hardware and software, you're picking a long time pro who will stick in the league and earn his contract and be appreciated by coaches. I don't fuss if we pick him. A discount version of Iguodala, like. He aiight.

Obi Toppin. Well, hell, he'd be fun to watch stack up (empty) stats. He can score in bunches. He'd have fun playing next to John Wall. Scorers earn $$$ and interest from other teams front offices and fans, so he'd be a good trade asset in future moves. Meanwhile, highlights and loud crowds. Paradoxically this pick would amuse me. Basketball is entertainment, he brings that factor. Somebody might offer a load to snatch him. A team that needs sizzle. I'd listen. If we picked him for that team and our targets didn't slip to those picks, then hey, we at least get some sizzle for a bit. What the hell.

Devin Vassell. No complaints for me if he slips and we pick him. A fit in talent at a need position. Defenders often take a while to adjust and make their mark in the league, but he also can hit an outside shot from range and at speed. And gives 100% effort, 40 feet and side to side. Coaches love that player, and will find time for them, in game and late game even if he waits to start. Young enough to have real upside. And his weaknesses are our strengths (playmaking off the dribble). If he is at our pick I figure its destiny and we take him. He is the ideal fit next to Beal and Wall. A risk is only that he makes us good, but not great, a treadmill above average team. But why complain about getting good? He is a risk to jump players ahead of him in the mocks. Would he be worth a trade up? Personally I'd think about it. Depending on the ask. Yeah I think I would.

Tyrese Halliburton. A-level IQ. C-level body and athleticism. A glue guy on a winning team. Smart enough to find a role. Here he fits as the first guard off the bench playing well next to either Wall or Beal. If he is the best talent available, I still am seeing who wants him. But teams like Golden State and the Spurs love players like this. So that gives me pause.
Ruzious
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 41,052
And1: 6,906
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1268 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:22 am

prime1time wrote:
DCZards wrote:
prime1time wrote:I would contend with the notion “great D”. How many great NBA defenders averaged less than 1 steal and 1 block a game? There’s a basic level of athleticism that a player needs to have to be a great defender in the NBA and I don’t think Bey has it. That’s not to say we shouldn’t draft him, but it is to say that drafting him would be about what he could bring offensively vs what he could bring defensively.

Steals and blocks are just two factors to take into account when judging a player’s defense. And I’d argue that they aren’t the most important ones.

There are players who get a lot of steals but are awful defenders because they can’t stay in front of their man. And one of the best defenders in the game at the forward position, Kawhi Leonard, averages less than one block a game.

Check out the video above. Watch Bey’s man-on-man defense. It’s excellent. He may not be a great athlete but he has the ability and agility to stay in front of his man, even as they move from sideline to sideline or try to attack the basket. The video shows Bey doing this against smaller and quicker players.

I saw the video. Blocks and steals by themselves don't mean much, but they are indicators of athleticism. And while Kawhi didn't average over 1 in both categories, his numbers are pretty clearly higher than Bey. A better question then is does Bey have the physical tools to be a good defender? Fluid hips and guarding smaller guards in college is one thing. How many average athletes are good defenders in the NBA?

As much as I like S Bey, there's no chance he's up there with Kawhi defensively, but that's perfectly ok - since Kawhi is arguably the best player in the NBA right now and is the best defender in the NBA.
"Look, you never know when you may need to borrow a cup of sugar, maybe some milk or a handgun" - Dan C. from Texas
pcbothwel
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,211
And1: 1,537
Joined: Jun 12, 2010
     

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1269 » by pcbothwel » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:14 pm

doclinkin wrote:Ok based on various rankings here's my read on the Top 10:

Anthony Edwards. At the top of many mocks, but could fall to 9 based on team needs ahead of us. If so: Not interested. Athletic but low % scorer, not making great reads or decisions. Could be good defender, could improve, still lots of static in the gap between potential and what he is right now.

James Wiseman. Raw potential, with a combo of both size and athleticism. Bigs are no longer at a premium, but he won't fall. "You can't teach height". Front offices still look at athletic bigs with nimble feet and bouncy legs. Is he worth trading up for? My read: even if he develops like he should he will reach his potential in his 2nd contract at the earliest. His top end is as a phenom, all star, renaissance Big. There's a large delta between that and his floor. I'm not the guy buying a player based on potential, unless they also exhibit BBIQ and love of the game. So far he is fast hardware, slow hardware. Not the risk I take for burning assets on a trade up. But he's a marvel. Someone may end up very happy. He is in a position of need as a defending rebounding big.

LaMelo Ball. Fast mind. Great height for the position. Basketball lifer, this is what he does. Young but already professionally tested, but on losing Pro teams. Iffy shooting percentages, sometimey defense despite good tools. He makes reads and passes that others won't. May check out if he is not in winning situations? May fall to 9 if people dislike the intangibles. Worth it? Not worth trading up for, for me, so I'd listen to trade down talk if someone behind us wanted him, depending on who else was available.

Killian Hayes. Poise and precocious calm for a PG. Good size. More smooth than explosive. Tested as a pro in a good league, but not dominant there. Solid. Probably won't fall. Not sure I'm as excited about him as the market and scouts are. So: Same deal, if he fell I'd be curious who wanted him. No complaint if he were an understudy guard on this team, he's got the right attitude and will be able to carry the 2nd team until he pushes for a starting spot. As an asset though he would be undervalued out of the gate. Unless we needed an instant PG (knock wood). And even then I expect Ish would start. Not worth a trade up.

Deni Avdija. Flashy highlights. In a weaker league. Looks good on tape. But low shooting %. IF he fell? Not my kind of player (is he a dominant defender? can he get his own while gaurded or force fouls, can he hit from outside and stretch things, does he pass and make players around him better with spacing and reads -- if not standout in one of these categories, I'm looking around). And I doubt he matches the analytics (no ranged shot, etc). I listen for trades, but pass either way.

Onyeka Okongwu. My guy. If any of the above fall it is because a team picked him earlier than the mocks. His effort and attitude and defensive focus stand out more than his anthropometrics and athletics. And he will need to improve both passing and his jumper. But he fits exactly what we need next to either of Rui or Bryant. Or Bertans. Trade up? I would, yes.

Isaac Okoro. I don't like that he came up shortest against his toughest competition. Not my guy. If he slipped to 9 its probably because somebody I like more leapfrogged him. Not the kind of player that I expect teams behind us would offer anything to jump and snatch. So probably no great trade down is dangled. That said, good BBIQ, 'everybody eats' glue guy, good balance of hardware and software, you're picking a long time pro who will stick in the league and earn his contract and be appreciated by coaches. I don't fuss if we pick him. A discount version of Iguodala, like. He aiight.

Obi Toppin. Well, hell, he'd be fun to watch stack up (empty) stats. He can score in bunches. He'd have fun playing next to John Wall. Scorers earn $$$ and interest from other teams front offices and fans, so he'd be a good trade asset in future moves. Meanwhile, highlights and loud crowds. Paradoxically this pick would amuse me. Basketball is entertainment, he brings that factor. Somebody might offer a load to snatch him. A team that needs sizzle. I'd listen. If we picked him for that team and our targets didn't slip to those picks, then hey, we at least get some sizzle for a bit. What the hell.

Devin Vassell. No complaints for me if he slips and we pick him. A fit in talent at a need position. Defenders often take a while to adjust and make their mark in the league, but he also can hit an outside shot from range and at speed. And gives 100% effort, 40 feet and side to side. Coaches love that player, and will find time for them, in game and late game even if he waits to start. Young enough to have real upside. And his weaknesses are our strengths (playmaking off the dribble). If he is at our pick I figure its destiny and we take him. He is the ideal fit next to Beal and Wall. A risk is only that he makes us good, but not great, a treadmill above average team. But why complain about getting good? He is a risk to jump players ahead of him in the mocks. Would he be worth a trade up? Personally I'd think about it. Depending on the ask. Yeah I think I would.

Tyrese Halliburton. A-level IQ. C-level body and athleticism. A glue guy on a winning team. Smart enough to find a role. Here he fits as the first guard off the bench playing well next to either Wall or Beal. If he is the best talent available, I still am seeing who wants him. But teams like Golden State and the Spurs love players like this. So that gives me pause.


Agree across the board. Im looking to hear Okoro, Toppin, and Avdija called in the top 8 so Okongwu, Haliburton, and Vassell fall.

Like you, Vassell is the guy I keep coming back to as his skill set and work ethic allow him to fit in seamlessly with Wall, Beal, and Brown. I know he doesnt excite everyone, but I really do think he has a lot of Otto Porter to his game.
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 14,121
And1: 4,355
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1270 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:31 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Ok based on various rankings here's my read on the Top 10:

Anthony Edwards. At the top of many mocks, but could fall to 9 based on team needs ahead of us. If so: Not interested. Athletic but low % scorer, not making great reads or decisions. Could be good defender, could improve, still lots of static in the gap between potential and what he is right now.

James Wiseman. Raw potential, with a combo of both size and athleticism. Bigs are no longer at a premium, but he won't fall. "You can't teach height". Front offices still look at athletic bigs with nimble feet and bouncy legs. Is he worth trading up for? My read: even if he develops like he should he will reach his potential in his 2nd contract at the earliest. His top end is as a phenom, all star, renaissance Big. There's a large delta between that and his floor. I'm not the guy buying a player based on potential, unless they also exhibit BBIQ and love of the game. So far he is fast hardware, slow hardware. Not the risk I take for burning assets on a trade up. But he's a marvel. Someone may end up very happy. He is in a position of need as a defending rebounding big.

LaMelo Ball. Fast mind. Great height for the position. Basketball lifer, this is what he does. Young but already professionally tested, but on losing Pro teams. Iffy shooting percentages, sometimey defense despite good tools. He makes reads and passes that others won't. May check out if he is not in winning situations? May fall to 9 if people dislike the intangibles. Worth it? Not worth trading up for, for me, so I'd listen to trade down talk if someone behind us wanted him, depending on who else was available.

Killian Hayes. Poise and precocious calm for a PG. Good size. More smooth than explosive. Tested as a pro in a good league, but not dominant there. Solid. Probably won't fall. Not sure I'm as excited about him as the market and scouts are. So: Same deal, if he fell I'd be curious who wanted him. No complaint if he were an understudy guard on this team, he's got the right attitude and will be able to carry the 2nd team until he pushes for a starting spot. As an asset though he would be undervalued out of the gate. Unless we needed an instant PG (knock wood). And even then I expect Ish would start. Not worth a trade up.

Deni Avdija. Flashy highlights. In a weaker league. Looks good on tape. But low shooting %. IF he fell? Not my kind of player (is he a dominant defender? can he get his own while gaurded or force fouls, can he hit from outside and stretch things, does he pass and make players around him better with spacing and reads -- if not standout in one of these categories, I'm looking around). And I doubt he matches the analytics (no ranged shot, etc). I listen for trades, but pass either way.

Onyeka Okongwu. My guy. If any of the above fall it is because a team picked him earlier than the mocks. His effort and attitude and defensive focus stand out more than his anthropometrics and athletics. And he will need to improve both passing and his jumper. But he fits exactly what we need next to either of Rui or Bryant. Or Bertans. Trade up? I would, yes.

Isaac Okoro. I don't like that he came up shortest against his toughest competition. Not my guy. If he slipped to 9 its probably because somebody I like more leapfrogged him. Not the kind of player that I expect teams behind us would offer anything to jump and snatch. So probably no great trade down is dangled. That said, good BBIQ, 'everybody eats' glue guy, good balance of hardware and software, you're picking a long time pro who will stick in the league and earn his contract and be appreciated by coaches. I don't fuss if we pick him. A discount version of Iguodala, like. He aiight.

Obi Toppin. Well, hell, he'd be fun to watch stack up (empty) stats. He can score in bunches. He'd have fun playing next to John Wall. Scorers earn $$$ and interest from other teams front offices and fans, so he'd be a good trade asset in future moves. Meanwhile, highlights and loud crowds. Paradoxically this pick would amuse me. Basketball is entertainment, he brings that factor. Somebody might offer a load to snatch him. A team that needs sizzle. I'd listen. If we picked him for that team and our targets didn't slip to those picks, then hey, we at least get some sizzle for a bit. What the hell.

Devin Vassell. No complaints for me if he slips and we pick him. A fit in talent at a need position. Defenders often take a while to adjust and make their mark in the league, but he also can hit an outside shot from range and at speed. And gives 100% effort, 40 feet and side to side. Coaches love that player, and will find time for them, in game and late game even if he waits to start. Young enough to have real upside. And his weaknesses are our strengths (playmaking off the dribble). If he is at our pick I figure its destiny and we take him. He is the ideal fit next to Beal and Wall. A risk is only that he makes us good, but not great, a treadmill above average team. But why complain about getting good? He is a risk to jump players ahead of him in the mocks. Would he be worth a trade up? Personally I'd think about it. Depending on the ask. Yeah I think I would.

Tyrese Halliburton. A-level IQ. C-level body and athleticism. A glue guy on a winning team. Smart enough to find a role. Here he fits as the first guard off the bench playing well next to either Wall or Beal. If he is the best talent available, I still am seeing who wants him. But teams like Golden State and the Spurs love players like this. So that gives me pause.


Agree across the board. Im looking to hear Okoro, Toppin, and Avdija called in the top 8 so Okongwu, Haliburton, and Vassell fall.

Like you, Vassell is the guy I keep coming back to as his skill set and work ethic allow him to fit in seamlessly with Wall, Beal, and Brown. I know he doesnt excite everyone, but I really do think he has a lot of Otto Porter to his game.

Doc -- this is really terrific. Thoughtful, well-argued, balanced, you name it. I doubt the FO reads us, but if they do I hope they catch your post.

&, of course, count me in on pcbothwei's vision of the draft! It would be great to see Okongwu's name on the board at #9. I doubt we will, alas, but it does seem that one or both of Vassell & Haliburton will be there. Still rather trade down, but those guys are strong prospects for long, productive NBA careers.
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
Frichuela
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 12
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1271 » by Frichuela » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:40 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
doclinkin wrote:Ok based on various rankings here's my read on the Top 10:

Anthony Edwards. At the top of many mocks, but could fall to 9 based on team needs ahead of us. If so: Not interested. Athletic but low % scorer, not making great reads or decisions. Could be good defender, could improve, still lots of static in the gap between potential and what he is right now.

James Wiseman. Raw potential, with a combo of both size and athleticism. Bigs are no longer at a premium, but he won't fall. "You can't teach height". Front offices still look at athletic bigs with nimble feet and bouncy legs. Is he worth trading up for? My read: even if he develops like he should he will reach his potential in his 2nd contract at the earliest. His top end is as a phenom, all star, renaissance Big. There's a large delta between that and his floor. I'm not the guy buying a player based on potential, unless they also exhibit BBIQ and love of the game. So far he is fast hardware, slow hardware. Not the risk I take for burning assets on a trade up. But he's a marvel. Someone may end up very happy. He is in a position of need as a defending rebounding big.

LaMelo Ball. Fast mind. Great height for the position. Basketball lifer, this is what he does. Young but already professionally tested, but on losing Pro teams. Iffy shooting percentages, sometimey defense despite good tools. He makes reads and passes that others won't. May check out if he is not in winning situations? May fall to 9 if people dislike the intangibles. Worth it? Not worth trading up for, for me, so I'd listen to trade down talk if someone behind us wanted him, depending on who else was available.

Killian Hayes. Poise and precocious calm for a PG. Good size. More smooth than explosive. Tested as a pro in a good league, but not dominant there. Solid. Probably won't fall. Not sure I'm as excited about him as the market and scouts are. So: Same deal, if he fell I'd be curious who wanted him. No complaint if he were an understudy guard on this team, he's got the right attitude and will be able to carry the 2nd team until he pushes for a starting spot. As an asset though he would be undervalued out of the gate. Unless we needed an instant PG (knock wood). And even then I expect Ish would start. Not worth a trade up.

Deni Avdija. Flashy highlights. In a weaker league. Looks good on tape. But low shooting %. IF he fell? Not my kind of player (is he a dominant defender? can he get his own while gaurded or force fouls, can he hit from outside and stretch things, does he pass and make players around him better with spacing and reads -- if not standout in one of these categories, I'm looking around). And I doubt he matches the analytics (no ranged shot, etc). I listen for trades, but pass either way.

Onyeka Okongwu. My guy. If any of the above fall it is because a team picked him earlier than the mocks. His effort and attitude and defensive focus stand out more than his anthropometrics and athletics. And he will need to improve both passing and his jumper. But he fits exactly what we need next to either of Rui or Bryant. Or Bertans. Trade up? I would, yes.

Isaac Okoro. I don't like that he came up shortest against his toughest competition. Not my guy. If he slipped to 9 its probably because somebody I like more leapfrogged him. Not the kind of player that I expect teams behind us would offer anything to jump and snatch. So probably no great trade down is dangled. That said, good BBIQ, 'everybody eats' glue guy, good balance of hardware and software, you're picking a long time pro who will stick in the league and earn his contract and be appreciated by coaches. I don't fuss if we pick him. A discount version of Iguodala, like. He aiight.

Obi Toppin. Well, hell, he'd be fun to watch stack up (empty) stats. He can score in bunches. He'd have fun playing next to John Wall. Scorers earn $$$ and interest from other teams front offices and fans, so he'd be a good trade asset in future moves. Meanwhile, highlights and loud crowds. Paradoxically this pick would amuse me. Basketball is entertainment, he brings that factor. Somebody might offer a load to snatch him. A team that needs sizzle. I'd listen. If we picked him for that team and our targets didn't slip to those picks, then hey, we at least get some sizzle for a bit. What the hell.

Devin Vassell. No complaints for me if he slips and we pick him. A fit in talent at a need position. Defenders often take a while to adjust and make their mark in the league, but he also can hit an outside shot from range and at speed. And gives 100% effort, 40 feet and side to side. Coaches love that player, and will find time for them, in game and late game even if he waits to start. Young enough to have real upside. And his weaknesses are our strengths (playmaking off the dribble). If he is at our pick I figure its destiny and we take him. He is the ideal fit next to Beal and Wall. A risk is only that he makes us good, but not great, a treadmill above average team. But why complain about getting good? He is a risk to jump players ahead of him in the mocks. Would he be worth a trade up? Personally I'd think about it. Depending on the ask. Yeah I think I would.

Tyrese Halliburton. A-level IQ. C-level body and athleticism. A glue guy on a winning team. Smart enough to find a role. Here he fits as the first guard off the bench playing well next to either Wall or Beal. If he is the best talent available, I still am seeing who wants him. But teams like Golden State and the Spurs love players like this. So that gives me pause.


Agree across the board. Im looking to hear Okoro, Toppin, and Avdija called in the top 8 so Okongwu, Haliburton, and Vassell fall.

Like you, Vassell is the guy I keep coming back to as his skill set and work ethic allow him to fit in seamlessly with Wall, Beal, and Brown. I know he doesnt excite everyone, but I really do think he has a lot of Otto Porter to his game.


I agree with both you. Great analysis doclinkin!

My worry with Vassell is his size, given that he fits the Wiz at the small forward position. How tall is he really? Some sites list him at 6' 7" but others have him at 6' 5". How big is is wingspan?

He is also listed at less than 200 lbs...can he defend the big wings in the league?

My dream scenario is the Wiz land Big O at #9 and we sign an experienced 3&D wing in FA such as T Craig or D Jones Jr for the MLE (or ideally less).
Frichuela
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 12
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1272 » by Frichuela » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:54 pm

Doc -- this is really terrific. Thoughtful, well-argued, balanced, you name it. I doubt the FO reads us, but if they do I hope they catch your post.

&, of course, count me in on pcbothwei's vision of the draft! It would be great to see Okongwu's name on the board at #9. I doubt we will, alas, but it does seem that one or both of Vassell & Haliburton will be there. Still rather trade down, but those guys are strong prospects for long, productive NBA careers.[/quote]

I have this gut feeling that Okongwu may drop to #9. Why? those picking ahead of us appear to have a stronger interest/need for guards or forwards...Assuming Edwards, Ball and Wiseman go top 3, Chi, Atl, Det and NY are likely to choose a guard/forward.

Not only draft savants such as Vecenie are forecasting Okongwu to last to #9 but in the RealGM draft board people are also expecting Big O to drop to 9.

Cleveland is my biggest worry of those selecting ahead of us..despite having Love, Drummond and Nance in the front court, and having a need for 3&D prospects, they may not see Drummond (and Love) as long-term pieces and select Big O.

The other worry is a trade up by someone behind us who really wants Big O...Boston (at #14), NO (at #13) or SAC (at #12) may be threats..
payitforward
RealGM
Posts: 14,121
And1: 4,355
Joined: May 02, 2012
Location: On the Atlantic

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1273 » by payitforward » Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:52 pm

Frichuela wrote:I have this gut feeling that Okongwu may drop to #9.

...Cleveland is my biggest worry of those selecting ahead of us....

The other worry is a trade up by someone behind us who really wants Big O...Boston (at #14), NO (at #13) or SAC (at #12) may be threats..

But... I can't see anyone ahead of us who is likely to want to trade down, can you?

Moreover, if one of those teams is going to trade up for Okongwu, we might as well be the team they trade with (e.g. if it was either us or a team above us).

OTOH, suppose the first 4 picks go by -- Edwards, Wiseman, Ball & Toppin. So, you're thinking that the next 5 guys to go are most likely to be Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes, Okongwu, & Vassell -- in what order we don't know, but we're going to get one of those guys.

Would you try to trade up with the Cavs? What would you give in addition to our #9? Or would you roll the dice on the Cavs & try to trade up w/ the Hawks? Or would you jump to the Pistons? Etc.

What would you do? & what would you give?
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
Frichuela
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 12
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1274 » by Frichuela » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:01 pm

payitforward wrote:
Frichuela wrote:I have this gut feeling that Okongwu may drop to #9.

...Cleveland is my biggest worry of those selecting ahead of us....

The other worry is a trade up by someone behind us who really wants Big O...Boston (at #14), NO (at #13) or SAC (at #12) may be threats..

But... I can't see anyone ahead of us who is likely to want to trade down, can you?

Moreover, if one of those teams is going to trade up for Okongwu, we might as well be the team they trade with (e.g. if it was either us or a team above us).

OTOH, suppose the first 4 picks go by -- Edwards, Wiseman, Ball & Toppin. So, you're thinking that the next 5 guys to go are most likely to be Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes, Okongwu, & Vassell -- in what order we don't know, but we're going to get one of those guys.

Would you try to trade up with the Cavs? What would you give in addition to our #9? Or would you roll the dice on the Cavs & try to trade up w/ the Hawks? Or would you jump to the Pistons? Etc.

What would you do? & what would you give?


Agreed and good points Payitforward..

If I was Tommy & co, I may be tempted to wait and see and then quickly react..

Worst scenario the Cavs select Big O at #5. Assuming they are open to trade with us, what can we offer them and would it be worth it for us? Would they want #9, Troy B (or Isaac Bonga) and our #37 pick for #5? They do not have a 2nd round pick, and lack 3&D wings..but would we be willing to part with these assets? or is it better to select Vassell or Okoro at #9 and look for a big in FA (Noel?).
Frichuela
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 12
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1275 » by Frichuela » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:08 pm

Frichuela wrote:
payitforward wrote:
Frichuela wrote:I have this gut feeling that Okongwu may drop to #9.

...Cleveland is my biggest worry of those selecting ahead of us....

The other worry is a trade up by someone behind us who really wants Big O...Boston (at #14), NO (at #13) or SAC (at #12) may be threats..

But... I can't see anyone ahead of us who is likely to want to trade down, can you?

Moreover, if one of those teams is going to trade up for Okongwu, we might as well be the team they trade with (e.g. if it was either us or a team above us).

OTOH, suppose the first 4 picks go by -- Edwards, Wiseman, Ball & Toppin. So, you're thinking that the next 5 guys to go are most likely to be Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes, Okongwu, & Vassell -- in what order we don't know, but we're going to get one of those guys.

Would you try to trade up with the Cavs? What would you give in addition to our #9? Or would you roll the dice on the Cavs & try to trade up w/ the Hawks? Or would you jump to the Pistons? Etc.

What would you do? & what would you give?


Agreed and good points Payitforward..

If I was Tommy & co, I may be tempted to wait and see and then quickly react..

Worst scenario the Cavs select Big O at #5. Assuming they are open to trade with us, what can we offer them and would it be worth it for us? Would they want #9, Troy B (or Isaac Bonga) and our #37 pick for #5? They do not have a 2nd round pick, and lack 3&D wings..but would we be willing to part with these assets? or is it better to select Vassell or Okoro at #9 and look for a big in FA (Noel?).


or better yet... would the Nets be willing to trade Jarrett Allen, #19 and Temple for Bryant and #9? :roll:
User avatar
doclinkin
General Manager
Posts: 9,746
And1: 1,900
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1276 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:32 pm

payitforward wrote:
Frichuela wrote:I have this gut feeling that Okongwu may drop to #9.

...Cleveland is my biggest worry of those selecting ahead of us....

The other worry is a trade up by someone behind us who really wants Big O...Boston (at #14), NO (at #13) or SAC (at #12) may be threats..

But... I can't see anyone ahead of us who is likely to want to trade down, can you?

Moreover, if one of those teams is going to trade up for Okongwu, we might as well be the team they trade with (e.g. if it was either us or a team above us).

OTOH, suppose the first 4 picks go by -- Edwards, Wiseman, Ball & Toppin. So, you're thinking that the next 5 guys to go are most likely to be Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes, Okongwu, & Vassell -- in what order we don't know, but we're going to get one of those guys.

Would you try to trade up with the Cavs? What would you give in addition to our #9? Or would you roll the dice on the Cavs & try to trade up w/ the Hawks? Or would you jump to the Pistons? Etc.

What would you do? & what would you give?


Ball and Edwards may fall out of the top 4. In fact in the top 10 Okongwu is one of the few 'sure thing' type players. Where you know what he does generally will translate to the NBA.

Golden State has made it plain they are trying to trade out of the #2 spot. IF someone jumps to take Wiseman in this spot, you don't think the Hornets would take an upgrade for Cody Zeller at #3? I don't see why the need Ball or Hayes in this spot, you can find a functional journeyman PG nowadays. We picked up 2 in Ish and Shabazz. #2 may be how far we need to jump to trade up for the Wu.
Ruzious
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 41,052
And1: 6,906
Joined: Jul 17, 2001
       

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1277 » by Ruzious » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:32 pm

Frichuela wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
payitforward wrote:But... I can't see anyone ahead of us who is likely to want to trade down, can you?

Moreover, if one of those teams is going to trade up for Okongwu, we might as well be the team they trade with (e.g. if it was either us or a team above us).

OTOH, suppose the first 4 picks go by -- Edwards, Wiseman, Ball & Toppin. So, you're thinking that the next 5 guys to go are most likely to be Avdija, Haliburton, Hayes, Okongwu, & Vassell -- in what order we don't know, but we're going to get one of those guys.

Would you try to trade up with the Cavs? What would you give in addition to our #9? Or would you roll the dice on the Cavs & try to trade up w/ the Hawks? Or would you jump to the Pistons? Etc.

What would you do? & what would you give?


Agreed and good points Payitforward..

If I was Tommy & co, I may be tempted to wait and see and then quickly react..

Worst scenario the Cavs select Big O at #5. Assuming they are open to trade with us, what can we offer them and would it be worth it for us? Would they want #9, Troy B (or Isaac Bonga) and our #37 pick for #5? They do not have a 2nd round pick, and lack 3&D wings..but would we be willing to part with these assets? or is it better to select Vassell or Okoro at #9 and look for a big in FA (Noel?).


or better yet... would the Nets be willing to trade Jarrett Allen, #19 and Temple for Bryant and #9? :roll:

Remember, Allen is an RFA after next season, so we'd either lose him or have to pay him quite a bit to stay. I think we could get him cheaper than that trade. Btw, Temple's 34. I wouldn't trade for him, but I'd love to have him as an assistant coach after he retires.

Re Vassell, I think he's a nice prospect, but I think people are overrating him. I see him as having the ceiling of a Danny Green. Green's a very good role player - very good at specific things he does - but remember Green was a 2nd round pick who got cut a few times before establishing himself. Granted, he probably shouldn't have been cut and probably should have been a late 1st rounder, but by the same token - Vassell shouldn't be a top 10 pick, imo. At least one of Okongwu, Haliburton, or Hayes should be there - all better choices than Vassell, imo. Hoping Okongwu is the pick. And I still would not rule out taking Poku - though I'd have to be sure that he's going to be able to add a significant amount of strength without making him slower.
"Look, you never know when you may need to borrow a cup of sugar, maybe some milk or a handgun" - Dan C. from Texas
User avatar
doclinkin
General Manager
Posts: 9,746
And1: 1,900
Joined: Jul 26, 2004
Location: .wizuds.

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1278 » by doclinkin » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:55 pm

Ruzious wrote:Re Vassell, I think he's a nice prospect, but I think people are overrating him. I see him as having the ceiling of a Danny Green. Green's a very good role player - very good at specific things he does - but remember Green was a 2nd round pick who got cut a few times before establishing himself. Granted, he probably shouldn't have been cut and probably should have been a late 1st rounder, but by the same token - Vassell shouldn't be a top 10 pick, imo. At least one of Okongwu, Haliburton, or Hayes should be there - all better choices than Vassell, imo. Hoping Okongwu is the pick. And I still would not rule out taking Poku - though I'd have to be sure that he's going to be able to add a significant amount of strength without making him slower.


No disagreement that there are players with higher upside than Vassell. My read on him is that he will be a solid pro. Not much more than that. There is a high percentage chance that some player lower in the mocks that becomes an all-star, where Vassell is a good player on a decent team. Danny Green has a championship ring, and may earn another this year. That said, Vassell is only 19, still developing, hard to say who he will be as he develops, what you do know is that he has a powerful motor, and those types of players tend to get better. IF you look at his college stats you see significant jumps in every category. Most telling to me in watching for progress is if a players FT% improves year after year. The only stat that I'd wish improved more was his assist measures, this has basically remained unchanged. On the plus side, his TOs dropped some, which says a lot considering if they dropped any more they;d be zero. He turns the ball over 1.5 times in 100 possessions.

Yes, he had no dominant games in college, but his numbers stayed steady against his toughest competition. And in games where he wasn't scoring well he generally posted higher stats on defense (rebounds, steals, blocks). That's a competitor. Some nights your shot won't fall, can you do everything else, that's the mark of a competitor. Is he great? No. Does he put the Wiz over the top? No. But in an off draft, if you can't trade down for multiple players with higher upside, taking a young improving player who can step into a position of need is a good thing. He has a ready made role with this team simply busting his tail on perimeter defense, and spreading the floor for our ballhandlers to drive, or Bigs to dunk.

BUt yeah, we would still be looking for a spotlight player somewhere if we want to improve more than incrementally. Agreed he's an Otto Porter type player, an efficiency darling, if not a 'follow-me' type player who can carry a team.
Shoe
Rookie
Posts: 1,013
And1: 750
Joined: Nov 06, 2017
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1279 » by Shoe » Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:32 pm

Two interesting things from the Ringers new mock draft

1. According to execs Patrick Williams has top 10 hype and Jalen Smith is lottery projection

2.
manager Tommy Sheppard told me he sees an opportunity to “swing for the fences, take a wild card, buy a lottery ticket, if you will.”
Frichuela
Ballboy
Posts: 21
And1: 12
Joined: Feb 25, 2015
 

Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1280 » by Frichuela » Mon Sep 14, 2020 6:20 pm

Ruzious wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
Frichuela wrote:
Agreed and good points Payitforward..

If I was Tommy & co, I may be tempted to wait and see and then quickly react..

Worst scenario the Cavs select Big O at #5. Assuming they are open to trade with us, what can we offer them and would it be worth it for us? Would they want #9, Troy B (or Isaac Bonga) and our #37 pick for #5? They do not have a 2nd round pick, and lack 3&D wings..but would we be willing to part with these assets? or is it better to select Vassell or Okoro at #9 and look for a big in FA (Noel?).


or better yet... would the Nets be willing to trade Jarrett Allen, #19 and Temple for Bryant and #9? :roll:


Remember, Allen is an RFA after next season, so we'd either lose him or have to pay him quite a bit to stay. I think we could get him cheaper than that trade. Btw, Temple's 34. I wouldn't trade for him, but I'd love to have him as an assistant coach after he retires.


The idea here would be to ideally extend Allen before he hits RFA for a bit of a discount, say $60 mn/4 years. If we do that the Wiz will be expending an extra $6-7mn given that Bryant is costing $8-9mn/year.

Temple has 1 year left with a TO. The idea is to have him around to help in the wing for 1 year and as a experienced voice in the locker room.

Return to Washington Wizards