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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1301 » by payitforward » Tue Sep 15, 2020 4:24 pm

Ruzious wrote:No Sam Merrill or Tres Tinkle? Ok, I guess we don't need to take a t... no I'm too classy to go there.

And trade Wagner for a future 2nd rounder please.

Since when? :)

Like those guys too.

For sure, trade Mo for whatever you can get. He's a marginal NBA player at best!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1302 » by DCZards » Tue Sep 15, 2020 5:20 pm

Agree with Doc on Achiuwa. Don’t rule him out as the Zards pick.

Precious is raw as hell offensively but his strengths as a rebounder, shotblocker and defender has to be something that the Zards FO (and players) would welcome. Achiuwa is high energy and runs the court extremely well, which would fit in very nicely next to Wall and Beal.

Outside of Okongwu, Achiuwa is the big I’d most like to see the Zards target. (Although I’d also take a long, hard look at Jalen Smith who is reportedly moving up the draft boards.)

Achiuwa would be considered a reach at 9 given that a more highly touted player like Vassell, Haliburton or Okoro will likely be available. (Most mock drafts I’ve seen have had Precious in the 12-16 range). But I wouldn’t be disappointed or surprised if the Zards took a chance on Precious at 9.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1303 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:34 am

Precious posted terrific numbers overall for a Freshman. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. That possibility is not a reason to pick him at #9 -- for the obvious reason that he'll be available later in R1.

If you reach for players, you get a crappy team. Period. There are no conditions under which that is not true. Just for starters, every time you reach you let a team picking below you get a better player than they should get.

If, heaven forbid, we are somehow "all in" on Precious Achiuwa, then at least trade with Boston to get their #14 pick. Please don't suggest that they won't want to trade -- of course they will be open to *some* trade -- they will give us the #14 &... something for the #9. No matter how little it is, it's better than spending the #9 pick on a guy you can get at 14 -- even if all we get is, for example, their #47 pick.

But... there is no way we are "all in" on Achiuwa: back when we knew only that we'd have some kind of lottery pick, Tommy said he had 17 players on his board any of whom he'd feel good about drafting. Obviously he had them in tiers depending on how we did in the lottery, but the statement is still very different in character from last year's "all in on Rui from the beginning."

We may still take Precious Achiuwa at #9. People do stupid things all the time. I do, we all do, Tommy is capable of it too. We've certainly seen the Wizards make idiotic moves during the years he worked for Ernie. Reaching for Achiuwa would be another one of them -- no matter how he turns out.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1304 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:53 am

doclinkin wrote:... I wouldn't rule out the selection of Achiuwa. Sheppard ... has said there are high energy Bigs (plural) who can help out in the draft. Achiuwa qualifies....

Of course he does. So what? So does Tillman. So do a bunch of other guys. Doesn't mean you reach for one of them at #9.

doclinkin wrote:He ...is solid and chiseled with the frame to build more strength. He has the length to defend 4 & 5. With Rui's face-up game being his go-to skill set, I think the team envisions him as a 3/4 who can be used to body up and defend some of the supersized 'small' forwards in the game.

If so, Precious would add roster flexibility in that he can sub in next to Rui/Bryant/Bertans, shoring up the weaknesses of each on the defensive end. He rebounds, blocks shots, moves well laterally to stay with guards, has both active hands and feet on defense, makes our size a positive mismatch. His offense is limited, and his FT shooting is subpar, so he's not my favorite prospect in the draft, but as a raw athlete he is in the top of the class. And he does have a ready role waiting for him on this team.....

Once again, what does any of this matter? Does it make him the BPA at #9? How many years in a row do you think you have to take a sub-optimal player in the draft, or sign a sub-optimal FA, etc. before you've made your team irrelevant for a generation?

No thinking required, right? We've just lived through a decade of it. This is a competitive league. If you give up more assets than you have to in order to acquire a player you are "all in" on, you get a bad team.

Nor does it matter whether Precious Achiuwa develops into a tremendous player. Doesn't matter at all. If you want him, trade down to the tier where he's gonna go. If he's already gone for some reason, then he's pushed down a guy who's quite likely to be better than he is. &, you've gotten something more in the trade down. Doesn't matter what it is; it's better than reaching.

doclinkin wrote:...I'd understand if Tommy took him.

I'd understand that Tommy Sheppard isn't going to work out well as the Wizards GM.

doclinkin wrote:But as I said, I think it doesn't come to that. If Halliburton is available in our spot, I bet GSW would like to trade their #2 overall to land a player who absolutely fits their style, and see if they could pick up additional assets. I think Tommy in his enthusiasm and 'that's my guy' attitude, is dialed in on Okongwu and will try to get a deal done to jump up.

How would that work? You tell GS that you'd like them to pick Okongwu @ #2, & in return you'll give them... what? The #9 & what? They have you over a barrel obviously!

Look at the trades in last year's R1. Everyone who traded up paid too much in the trade. Atlanta got reamed by NO. Philly got reamed by Boston. Etc.

Better hope Okongwu drops to us. Or, if he doesn't drop to us, that we take the BPA at #9. Or, if we don't take the BPA, that we trade down. Yikes!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1305 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:03 am

payitforward wrote:Precious posted terrific numbers overall for a Freshman. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. That possibility is not a reason to pick him at #9 -- for the obvious reason that he'll be available later in R1.

If you reach for players, you get a crappy team. Period. There are no conditions under which that is not true.

Just for starters, every time you reach you let a team picking below you get a better player than they should get.

If, heaven forbid, we are somehow "all in" on Precious Achiuwa, then at least trade with Boston to get their #14 pick. Please don't suggest that they won't want to trade -- of course they will be open to *some* trade -- they will give us the #14 &... something for the #9. No matter how little it is, it's better than spending the #9 pick on a guy you can get at 14 -- even if all we get is, for example, their #47 pick.

But... there is no way we are "all in" on Achiuwa: back when we knew only that we'd have some kind of lottery pick, Tommy said he had 17 players on his board any of whom he'd feel good about drafting. Obviously he had them in tiers depending on how we did in the lottery, but the statement is still very different in character from last year's "all in on Rui from the beginning."

We may still take Precious Achiuwa at #9. People do stupid things all the time. I do, we all do, Tommy is capable of it too. We've certainly seen the Wizards make idiotic moves during the years he worked for Ernie. Reaching for Achiuwa would be another one of them -- no matter how he turns out.

Would it really be a “stretch” to take Achiuwa at 9? Several mocks have him projected at 12. Do we really know that Halibuton or Vassell are going to be better NBA players than Precious simply because they're ranked ahead of him?

All we really know for sure is that by drafting Haliburton or Vassell you're drafting a player that mocks rank higher than Precious, which we both know means absolutely nothing.

It was considered a stretch when the Zards drafted Troy Brown at 15. Looking back at the 2018 mocks most had Troy in the 20s—one even had him in the second round. It could be that the Zards thought Brown was the BPA at 15—and trading down to draft him later in the first round may not have been an option.

Should the Zards not have “reached” for Brown? Should they have taken a higher ranked player like Kevin Huerter, Zaire Smith or Mo Wagner?

It the Zards did indeed believe Precious is the BPA at 9 it wouldn’t really be a “stretch” (or stupid), imo, to take him at 9 rather than 12, 13 or 14?

You don't worry about "a team picking below you" getting a better player than they should get. The goal is getting the BPA when it's your turn to pick, especially if he fills a need like Achiuwa would.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1306 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:08 pm

payitforward wrote:Precious posted terrific numbers overall for a Freshman. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. That possibility is not a reason to pick him at #9 -- for the obvious reason that he'll be available later in R1.


Now who gave you that “crystal ball” you’re so fond of.

Tell me what else about the future is obvious PIFstradamus?

In mocks we are looking at keyboard tapping nerds’ best guess on what they think might happen. In a year with a great deal more noise and chatter. With no NCAA tourney. A shortened season. AND more importantly, no combine.

We haven’t seen these prospects stacked up against each other. Every year in the combine some player shows out as a physical marvel. And suddenly the mocks reshuffle the deck. There are a few numbers I personally look at for different positions, standing reach seems to have correlation with defense more so than wingspan. Shuttle run seems to make a defensive difference on whether Bigs can guard the pick and roll effectively. The combine is not worthless for teams to sort which guys stand out against each other. This year teams will have to figure out something else. Just understand the mocks this year mean even less than they normally do.

But even with the info we have: Your boys at the Stepien suggested Achiuwa was possibly the ‘most athletic’ player in the draft. If Raw. When I did my sift for defensive Bigs, crossed against productive freshmen it was Precious and Okongwu miles ahead of everyone else. The only number that had me shrug was his FT shooting.

Scouts and advanced analytics guys will have a read not just on box scores but on situational scoring, etc. They keep box scores on screens set, catch and shoot, one dribble shot %s etc. I read a stat where Precious was the top 2-3 most successful roll man In the P&R in “the American”. (American what. I assume he meant the AAC Or what, among American players?). They also have developmental guys on their staff whose job it is to shape a ‘raw’ player into a Star. They have input on which guys look exciting to work with.

We? Get highlights and the opinions of knowitalls. Present company happily included.

There’s no such thing as a ‘stretch’ if you land the player who fits your team, and they turn out to be good. Teams get a great deal more information than we do. Oftimes maybe that means there’s more chaff in the data. Agents, scouts, people in the office of other teams, misinformation, real leaks and telegraphing. We are trying to guess what Tommy may do based on a quote. The front office is trying to guess what every other team may do.

I agree in principle with the idea of trade downs. Because there is too much ack ack in the sky. Chum in the water for the feeding frenzy. Nothing is ‘obvious’ in which player will be good, or where the good players will be taken. Maybe you get two great players instead of one. Maybe the 2nd one taken is the better.

But. Teams have tiers. Tommy has scouting breakdowns of who he thinks will be good. Other teams have needs that mimic our own. After this post season, more teams will be looking for bigs.

Who are the Top 3 bigs in the draft? Name them in order. Nobody else in the top 14 needs a big? Look at the teams winning right now: Lakers. Miami with Bam. Nuggets with Jokic and size. Playoff hopefuls will look for a counter. The metagame is shifting to emphasize size with skill.

If Tommy has Okongwu and Precious as the 1&2 bigs on his board, based on scouting and projection and all of the above, and if the scouting suggests Achiuwa is in the same tier as the other BPAs that fall to 9, then in my read he is not wrong for taking the Big. By virtue of human biology an athletic Big is a rarer commodity.

Even if he’s not my pick.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1307 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm

DC, The difference is Brown was the youngest player in the draft, while Precious is the oldest Freshman in the draft. The dude is 21 already and only 3 months older than Troy Brown and the same EXACT age (To the week) as Jaren Jackson, who are entering their 3rd year!

The more I think about Tommy mentioning lotto ticket, the more I lean towards a young, raw, toolsy player with little tape.
I think Poku and RJ Hampton may be in play.
I've mentioned Poku plenty, but Hampton deserves a conversation.
Hampton is thin, not especially long, and has some concerns about his overall ceiling due to defense and shooting... but...
He is extremely quick and has loose hips with great "slipperiness" and body control. He can get anywhere on the court and that translates to the pro level due to his efficiency of movement. I think he projects as a good shooter once he gets his lower half figured out (Feet too close). I see a lot of Will Barton in his game.

The wildcard is simple. High ceiling, hardworking combo guard working with Wall, Beal, and Brown Jr could be an ideal environment to reach his potential and be the best player in the draft. Yes, he needs to get stronger and has clear limitations as a true PG/Creator, but thats why he would fall to us at all (Along with some comps to Exum). I think he could be part of a relentless guard rotation that would provide zero relief for any teams bench unit. All 4 of those guys can play with each other, which is very enticing for both growth and actual on court performance.

- Again, downside is obvious, but the physical tools and work ethic are there and Tommy may not get another top 10 pick next year.
If Okongwu isnt there, I wouldn't hate the pick if TS did his due diligence.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1308 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:51 pm

pcbothwel wrote:DC, The difference is Brown was the youngest player in the draft, while Precious is the oldest Freshman in the draft. The dude is 21 already and only 3 months older than Troy Brown and the same EXACT age (To the week) as Jaren Jackson, who are entering their 3rd year!


Ok that makes a difference. Basketball ref doesn’t let me sort for age. Anyone got a good link for players ages?
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1309 » by nate33 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:10 pm

payitforward wrote:Not to speak for nate, but he suggested that he'd call Chicago about Carter if they picked Wiseman & would be interested in him if the price were reasonable. I don't think he meant anything like giving the #9 for him!

Correct!

I would not offer a lotto pick for a guy with just 2 years left on his rookie deal.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1310 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:23 pm

doclinkin wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:DC, The difference is Brown was the youngest player in the draft, while Precious is the oldest Freshman in the draft. The dude is 21 already and only 3 months older than Troy Brown and the same EXACT age (To the week) as Jaren Jackson, who are entering their 3rd year!


Ok that makes a difference. Basketball ref doesn’t let me sort for age. Anyone got a good link for players ages?


I think Tankathon does a good job for a high level view of stats, comparisons, etc.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1311 » by nate33 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:26 pm

Precious Achiuwa has very high shoulders and a short neck. I'd be willing to bet he has a standing reach more like a 7-footer than his 6-9 stature suggests. He moves very well too.

I'm a little troubled by his hands though. In the highlights that I watched, it just seems like he has poor hand-eye coordination. Something about the way he catches a ball makes me think is always about to drop it. His shooting numbers and FT% certainly don't inspire confidence. On the other hand, he actually has a rudimentary face-up dribble drive game that suggests he does have decent hand-eye coordination.

Overall, I don't think he is lotto pick worthy. At age 21 he is too raw for my tastes. He would need to be a freak athlete for me to overlook his skill deficit. He's a good athlete, but not freakishly good.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1312 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:42 pm

nate33 wrote:Precious Achiuwa has very high shoulders and a short neck. I'd be willing to bet he has a standing reach more like a 7-footer than his 6-9 stature suggests. He moves very well too.

I'm a little troubled by his hands though. In the highlights that I watched, it just seems like he has poor hand-eye coordination. Something about the way he catches a ball makes me think is always about to drop it. His shooting numbers and FT% certainly don't inspire confidence. On the other hand, he actually has a rudimentary face-up dribble drive game that suggests he does have decent hand-eye coordination.

Overall, I don't think he is lotto pick worthy. At age 21 he is too raw for my tastes. He would need to be a freak athlete for me to overlook his skill deficit. He's a good athlete, but not freakishly good.


Exactly... Jalen Smith is a much better prospect in the same range, along with Oturu, TIllman, and Reed later.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1313 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:55 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
doclinkin wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:DC, The difference is Brown was the youngest player in the draft, while Precious is the oldest Freshman in the draft. The dude is 21 already and only 3 months older than Troy Brown and the same EXACT age (To the week) as Jaren Jackson, who are entering their 3rd year!


Ok that makes a difference. Basketball ref doesn’t let me sort for age. Anyone got a good link for players ages?


I think Tankathon does a good job for a high level view of stats, comparisons, etc.


Which does not answer my question :clown:

Player season finder on Bref is pretty excellent for sorting for many different stats. What they don't have is player's birthdates. I can sort by freshmen but finding their actual age for a comparison would be nice.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1314 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:22 pm

payitforward wrote:
doclinkin wrote:But as I said, I think it doesn't come to that. If Halliburton is available in our spot, I bet GSW would like to trade their #2 overall to land a player who absolutely fits their style, and see if they could pick up additional assets. I think Tommy in his enthusiasm and 'that's my guy' attitude, is dialed in on Okongwu and will try to get a deal done to jump up.

How would that work? You tell GS that you'd like them to pick Okongwu @ #2, & in return you'll give them... what? The #9 & what? They have you over a barrel obviously!

Look at the trades in last year's R1. Everyone who traded up paid too much in the trade. Atlanta got reamed by NO. Philly got reamed by Boston. Etc.

Better hope Okongwu drops to us. Or, if he doesn't drop to us, that we take the BPA at #9. Or, if we don't take the BPA, that we trade down. Yikes!


I get it, you are against trading up. Tommy has made clear he is not against trading up.

"I can't say this enough. Everything is on the table for us to get better as a franchise. So, these picks, if we can take two picks and move up and somebody wants to do that, we'll entertain that," Sheppard said.
...
"I have eight calls to make tomorrow and over the course of the next week, to talk to the teams ahead of us and see what their needs are and see what they want to do. Then, talk to the teams behind us and see what their needs are," Sheppard said.

Sheppard added he is "very, very open" to adding another second round pick, either by purchasing one from another team or via trade. The Wizards may be sitting at No. 9 and 37 on the board as of today, but it sounds like there is a good chance they don't stay there.


That said pundits suggest that many teams in the lotto might be interested in trading down. That suggests it will be a buyers market this year, if true. Granted Okongwu may be the only player that teams are looking to trade up and land, yes he may be a solid asset for GSW to select then sit back and listen to offers. Ours may not be the best deal, and it may be a bidding war for the option, but, if we are sitting at 9 with Halliburton and Vassell, is it worth a phone call to the W's to say hey: we could take either, and you have made it clear you like Halliburton, what kind of deal would you want for a pick swap. If the deal doesn't work out then we still have a damn good player. Or we listen to teams trying to trade up.

I think much like the idea that it makes no sense to dial in on a specific player and go 'all in', nor does it make sense to dial in on a specific strategy and refuse to consider other options. There are any number of 2-for-1 trades you would make on players who have a track record in the league. If you trust your scouting department you might as well trust that they have a good read on what 2-for-1 prospects may be worth a consolidation trade. You like Bryant, TBJ, Bonga, Garrison Matthews -- and admit you were not high on any of them in advance of the draft. Tommy was. He got there first. If he sees a player attainable higher up that hits high marks in his draft system, I personally would not have a problem giving him the benefit of the doubt if he thought it were worth an additional asset to obtain a player that might not be as easily attainable later in trades or free agency or future drafts. Swing for the fences. I get that Rui and Admiral are evidence against the argument, but still, if we landed Okongwu I'm confident we'd be happy, and only have to hear about who we might have gotten, umm, say a few thousand times in future PIF screeds :clown:
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1315 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:34 pm

DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:Precious posted terrific numbers overall for a Freshman. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. That possibility is not a reason to pick him at #9 -- for the obvious reason that he'll be available later in R1.

If you reach for players, you get a crappy team. Period. There are no conditions under which that is not true.

Just for starters, every time you reach you let a team picking below you get a better player than they should get.

If, heaven forbid, we are somehow "all in" on Precious Achiuwa, then at least trade with Boston to get their #14 pick. Please don't suggest that they won't want to trade -- of course they will be open to *some* trade -- they will give us the #14 &... something for the #9. No matter how little it is, it's better than spending the #9 pick on a guy you can get at 14 -- even if all we get is, for example, their #47 pick.

But... there is no way we are "all in" on Achiuwa: back when we knew only that we'd have some kind of lottery pick, Tommy said he had 17 players on his board any of whom he'd feel good about drafting. Obviously he had them in tiers depending on how we did in the lottery, but the statement is still very different in character from last year's "all in on Rui from the beginning."

We may still take Precious Achiuwa at #9. People do stupid things all the time. I do, we all do, Tommy is capable of it too. We've certainly seen the Wizards make idiotic moves during the years he worked for Ernie. Reaching for Achiuwa would be another one of them -- no matter how he turns out.

Would it really be a “stretch” to take Achiuwa at 9? Several mocks have him projected at 12. Do we really know that Halibuton or Vassell are going to be better NBA players than Precious simply because they're ranked ahead of him?

All we really know for sure is that by drafting Haliburton or Vassell you're drafting a player that mocks rank higher than Precious, which we both know means absolutely nothing.

It was considered a stretch when the Zards drafted Troy Brown at 15. Looking back at the 2018 mocks most had Troy in the 20s—one even had him in the second round. It could be that the Zards thought Brown was the BPA at 15—and trading down to draft him later in the first round may not have been an option.

Should the Zards not have “reached” for Brown? Should they have taken a higher ranked player like Kevin Huerter, Zaire Smith or Mo Wagner?

It the Zards did indeed believe Precious is the BPA at 9 it wouldn’t really be a “stretch” (or stupid), imo, to take him at 9 rather than 12, 13 or 14?

You don't worry about "a team picking below you" getting a better player than they should get. The goal is getting the BPA when it's your turn to pick, especially if he fills a need like Achiuwa would.

First off... I got a little carried away yesterday evening, & that is reflected in the tone of my post on which you comment.

In the terms in which you frame it, I cannot disagree with your post, Zards. If I'm the GM, & I've got the #9 pick, & I think I can sequence let's say the top 15 players in something close to exact order of how good they are likely to be, then when #9 comes along I should pick the highest guy on that list.

If the GMs who've picked so far have taken the guys I had ranked 1-8, I should take the #9 guy. OTOH, if, somehow, #5 has been passed over -- well, then, take him not #9 (if he's still there!). I.e. take the highest guy whatever his name is: Achiuwa, Avdija, Pokusevski, Eboua... even Smith!

Only one problem -- no one can make that kind of ordered list with any hope of accuracy. At least not past pick #3. & that is the problem with:
DCZards wrote:It the Zards did indeed believe Precious is the BPA at 9 it wouldn’t really be a “stretch” (or stupid), imo, to take him at 9 rather than 12, 13 or 14?

What if the Wizards had a magical visitation from the future with 100% accurate information that PF Reggie Perry (mocked in various spots in R2) will turn out to be the 8th best player in the 2020 draft? Stranger things have happened.

If we now know this for a fact, should the Wizards take him at #9? Your logic says yes; mine says trade down.

Of course that's an extreme example. But, I wouldn't be totally surprised if Xavier Tillman turned out to be the 8th best player out of this draft, would you?

In fact, I'd say there is lots of evidence to make him seem more likely than Achiuwa to do that. We have a whole lot more data pointing to outstanding play for Tillman than for Achiuwa. Nor is this about an "older" player -- Achiuwa is only 9 months younger than Tillman.

In that case, would you simply take Tillman at #9? Or would you trade down -- say for #14 & #30? Then take Tillman at 14 & another prospect at 30?
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1316 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:26 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
Exactly... Jalen Smith is a much better prospect in the same range, along with Oturu, TIllman, and Reed later.



I think Jalen Smith projects to be a less versatile defender. There's a reason his nickname is Stix. He gets bodied in college at times, and has to lean into a guy to hold his ground. In the NBA a strong player with a spin move will send him sprawling and pick up trips to the FT line. He will still defend the post well since he anticipates well, reads pump fakes, and keeps verticality, but I'm more concerned with his ability to chase outside on P&R. I get the sense he will be picked apart out there. He's not comfortable closing out on shooters or defending with position in space. Jalen Smith is a useful stretch 5 on offense and adds interior defense. On this team I get the feel we would have chemistry issues next to Bryant/Bertans etc. Defensively he does well the things that Bryant does well. Is poor at the same things Bryant is. Is he better than Thomas Bryant, enough to replace him in the starting line? Not enough for me to take him at #9. Yes as an understudy 5 lower down I'd be happy. But even then, IF we are sticking with Bryant then I'd rather Xavier Tillman than Jalen Smith. Better synergy. If we got both though I'd be very happy. Especially with the PIF plan to land Tyler Bey as well. TBey has closeout and hustle and laterality and bouncy defense. A smart coach could use all three effectively in situations.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1317 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 16, 2020 4:46 pm

doclinkin wrote:
payitforward wrote:Precious posted terrific numbers overall for a Freshman. & he may turn out to be a terrific player. That possibility is not a reason to pick him at #9 -- for the obvious reason that he'll be available later in R1.


Now who gave you that “crystal ball” you’re so fond of....

Have I forgotten to return your crystal ball? Again? Sorry, Doc... -- I'll get it back to you this week!
...
doclinkin wrote:...But even with the info we have: Your boys at the Stepien suggested Achiuwa was possibly the ‘most athletic’ player in the draft. ...When I did ...it was Precious and Okongwu miles ahead of everyone else.....

Who was it you compared Branden Clarke to last year? Oh yeah... Tim Thomas. :)

doclinkin wrote:...Scouts and advanced analytics guys will have ...etc. etc. etc.

Must be why they picked Barrett, Hunter, Culver, Garland, Hayes & Reddish in the top 10, right? & let Johnson, Thybulle & Clarke fall into the teens & twenties, while allowing Martin, Gafford, Paschall, & Mann to drop into R2

doclinkin wrote:We? Get highlights and the opinions of knowitalls. Present company happily included....

:) Weird, ain't it? How do we do it, I wonder? Well, here's one thing: you & I remember Tim Thomas. None of those "scouts and advanced analytics guys" would recognize the name.

doclinkin wrote:There’s no such thing as a ‘stretch’ if you land the player who fits your team, and they turn out to be good.....

This is true in a very real sense. But, if you use your asset, the draft pick/position, to get that guy & another guy who also fits/is good -- that's even better. &, since the NBA is competitive, doing that improves you relative to the competition. Duh.

doclinkin wrote:Teams get a great deal more information than we do.....

3 decades in the tech industries taught me that a) data is not information, b) information is not knowledge, & c) knowledge isn't extensible to next time around -- isn't "wisdom" in other words. Make a good pick this year? Start over from scratch next year.

doclinkin wrote:...Who are the Top 3 bigs in the draft? Name them in order. Nobody else in the top 14 needs a big?...

Draft for need this year, you'll have more needs next year. Rinse & repeat.

doclinkin wrote:...The metagame is shifting to emphasize size with skill.

How not? What shifts is the list under "important skills." One thing's sure, however: small & skilless doesn't do the trick. :)

doclinkin wrote:...If Tommy has Okongwu and Precious as 1&2 on his board, based on scouting and projection and all of the above, and if the scouting suggests Achiuwa is in the same tier as the other BPAs that fall to 9, then in my read he is not wrong for taking the Big. By virtue of human biology an athletic Big is a rarer commodity.

Even if he’s not my pick.

Xavier Tillman may turn out to be better than Achiuwa. There is absolutely no data-driven basis on which to deny that possibility. If anything, the data is on Tillman's side in the projection.

Yet, you wouldn't pick Tillman #9. Thus, your schema above is wrong -- or rather it's incomplete.

A GM who thinks that doing well in the draft is driven by being able to tell whether Achiuwa is going to be as good as Okongwu, or how close, is condemned to lose. Period. Ditto if it's Tillman vs. either guy.

Projecting players overall is difficult. Projecting a comparison between 2 particular players is mega-difficult. This is true even though, in the case of Okongwu we see a 19-year old with significant pluses over either of those other guys that would move us to make the bigger bet that drafting a 19-year old entails.

This is the essential point: the hardest thing for people to see is the difference between a "pick" and a "player." They are not the same! In fact they are not remotely similar. Is a $5 bill "like" the hot dog, chips & coke you buy with it?

A "pick" is an asset. It's like $$$. You use it to buy player-value. The idea is to get the most player value you can for that asset. That improves your team. In fact, it's one of the few controllable ways to improve a franchise.

That's why the above is wrong, but this is right:
doclinkin wrote:I agree ...with the idea of trade downs. ...Nothing is ‘obvious’ in ...where the good players will be taken. Maybe you get two great players instead of one. Maybe the 2nd one taken is the better.....

Bingo. Plus, it's more fun for fans like us!
Remember -- if you don't like the post above: blame Doc not me.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1318 » by DCZards » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:40 pm

payitforward wrote:Must be why they picked Barrett, Hunter, Culver, Garland, Hayes & Reddish in the top 10, right? & let Johnson, Thybulle & Clarke fall into the teens & twenties, while allowing Martin, Gafford, Paschall, & Mann to drop into R2


Whoa…not so fast PIF. The verdict is still out on just how good guys like Barrett, Hunter, Culver, Garland, Hayes and Reddish are going to be. They were all just 19 or 20 years old when they were drafted last year, with just one-year of college basketball experience.

It’s foolhardy to compare these youngin’s with guys like Thybulle, Clarke, Martin, Paschall, Mann & Gafford., all of whom (except for Gafford) were at least 22 years old with 3 or 4 years of college experience when they were drafted last year.

Personally, I’m still pretty bullish on Barrett, Reddish and Garland….even after seeing them struggle for the most part as rookies.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1319 » by pcbothwel » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:11 pm

doclinkin wrote:
pcbothwel wrote:
Exactly... Jalen Smith is a much better prospect in the same range, along with Oturu, TIllman, and Reed later.



I think Jalen Smith projects to be a less versatile defender. There's a reason his nickname is Stix. He gets bodied in college at times, and has to lean into a guy to hold his ground. In the NBA a strong player with a spin move will send him sprawling and pick up trips to the FT line. He will still defend the post well since he anticipates well, reads pump fakes, and keeps verticality, but I'm more concerned with his ability to chase outside on P&R. I get the sense he will be picked apart out there. He's not comfortable closing out on shooters or defending with position in space. Jalen Smith is a useful stretch 5 on offense and adds interior defense. On this team I get the feel we would have chemistry issues next to Bryant/Bertans etc. Defensively he does well the things that Bryant does well. Is poor at the same things Bryant is. Is he better than Thomas Bryant, enough to replace him in the starting line? Not enough for me to take him at #9. Yes as an understudy 5 lower down I'd be happy. But even then, IF we are sticking with Bryant then I'd rather Xavier Tillman than Jalen Smith. Better synergy. If we got both though I'd be very happy. Especially with the PIF plan to land Tyler Bey as well. TBey has closeout and hustle and laterality and bouncy defense. A smart coach could use all three effectively in situations.


Doc... Trust me, I said the same things about Smith to CCJ and others. But he is certainly better than Precious.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1320 » by doclinkin » Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:19 pm

payitforward wrote:Who was it you compared Branden Clarke to last year? Oh yeah... Tim Thomas. :)
...
doclinkin wrote:We? Get highlights and the opinions of knowitalls. Present company happily included....

:) Weird, ain't it? How do we do it, I wonder? Well, here's one thing: you & I remember Tim Thomas.


Ooof perfectly good snark ruined by senility:



Clearly you don't remember diddly, jazz cat. Perhaps you are wrong, as you were with Bryant, Troy Brown, etc.

If you had your wits about you would recall I brought up Clarke before all, then took the contrarian position because a certain someone was being disagreeable and bloviating on the topic :clown: I am on a message board, so my only job is to bring entertaining content and to stir up conversation. The question I raised was: Convince me the league has changed so that a bouncy slim shot blocker can fit in the league, since up to now we have seen that player struggle to carve a role. Your answer: you could be right, you also liked Thomas and thought he would succeed -- the difference is Ty Thom left as a freshman, but we have a track record of improvement on Clarke. Fair point.

The rest is the usual bloviating, and tabbing the most notable success to make the rest of our points seem more sensible. Which you well know:

Post#239 » by payitforward » Fri Jan 25, 2019 12:24 am

(Before this gets out of hand, I should probably 'fess up & say that it's not quite as clear cut as I make it sound -- :evil: -- but it can still be a hell of a good idea to trade down for multiple picks.)

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