RealGM

FWIW, my point on Achiuwa was not that we should pick him above all others. My point was PIF figured if the Wu was gone by 9 all trade downs were open and there is no way Tommy wants Precious, etc. I disagreed that he knows exactly what Tommy wants , and that Achiuwa is not necessarily the poor fit next to Rui that PIF assumes.

payitforward wrote:

Sheppard said... “We are probably more focused on bigs..."

Worth looking at this statement, which does seem to make sense.

...
Unless Wiseman falls through the floor, the only big being projected at 9 or earlier in this draft is Onweka Okungwu. Great if we get him. What if we don't?

The next 3 bigs in pretty much all mocks so far are (in no particular order): Precious Achiuwa, Jalen Smith & Alexei Pokusevski. Given our all-in attitude about Rui, I'm thinking there's no chance we want Achiuwa.
...
This makes a trade with Boston extremely attractive. Moreover, I have no doubt whatever that Boston will move at least 1 of its 3 R1 picks, as they did last year. Hence, it seems likely they'd do a 2-for-1 with us to move up to #9

..

In other words, a trade down is starting to seem like a real possibility rather than my annual dream-that-can't-come-true.

My point was, Tommy stated he wants an energetic defensive Big. There are 3 mocked in the lotto in many drafts. Precious is one of them. If WIseman, Okongwu, Vassell (fit) and Halliburton (possibly as a trade for GSW) are taken before 9, and there is no trade up, I myself would not be surprised if Tommy took Achiuwa based on what he does do well, and based on various scouts' read of his upside.

PIF's point was that would be stupid because he is surely available at 14, and we would surely be able to trade down and get the 14 and a mess of other picks as well. Nice dream except his other point is that it would be stupid for us to trade up to #2 and take the Wu, because we would be reamed by GSW if we did. Now if every team took that same attitude, nobody would trade up. But perhaps Danny Ainge is stupider than PIF and would happily take his pet trade?

For what it's worth there are players who are MOCKED lower down that I like better than Achiuwa. Xavier Tillman is one. I'm saying I would not be overconfident that XYZ player will surely be available lower down. Or that they are mix and match equivalent.

If you like a guy as a fit, then maybe you take him where he is available. If someone comes along later who likes him more and your 2b guy is available at their pick, then you can listen to offers. But either way you already have a guy you like if those offers do not materialize. THAT is how trade downs work best. Because of the volatility of any draft -- and this year the uncertainty is magnified. It's rare that teams trade picks before the draft, doing so only on the day of the selections and when they see they can still get a guy they have rated highly.

doclinkin wrote:...Anyone got a good link for players ages?

I usually just google the guy by name -- birthday/age are always there.

(I think I had mentioned Precious is only 9 months older than Tillman, no -- maybe not...)

pcbothwel wrote:

doclinkin wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:DC, The difference is Brown was the youngest player in the draft, while Precious is the oldest Freshman in the draft. The dude is 21 already and only 3 months older than Troy Brown and the same EXACT age (To the week) as Jaren Jackson, who are entering their 3rd year!

Ok that makes a difference. Basketball ref doesn’t let me sort for age. Anyone got a good link for players ages?

I think Tankathon does a good job for a high level view of stats, comparisons, etc.

I use this:

per 40 minutes / per 100 possessions / Advanced are what I look at.

pcbothwel wrote:

nate33 wrote:Precious Achiuwa ...Overall, I don't think he is lotto pick worthy. At age 21 he is too raw for my tastes. He would need to be a freak athlete for me to overlook his skill deficit. He's a good athlete, but not freakishly good.

Exactly... Jalen Smith is a much better prospect in the same range, along with Oturu, TIllman, and Reed later.

Agree -- so, if I liked him, I would trade down & try to get him in the range where he makes sense. If I missed him, I'd take another guy whom I had on the same tier.

doclinkin wrote:

payitforward wrote:

doclinkin wrote:But as I said, I think it doesn't come to that. If Halliburton is available in our spot, I bet GSW would like to trade their #2 overall to land a player who absolutely fits their style, and see if they could pick up additional assets. I think Tommy in his enthusiasm and 'that's my guy' attitude, is dialed in on Okongwu and will try to get a deal done to jump up.

How would that work? You tell GS that you'd like them to pick Okongwu @ #2, & in return you'll give them... what? The #9 & what? They have you over a barrel obviously!

Look at the trades in last year's R1. Everyone who traded up paid too much in the trade. Atlanta got reamed by NO. Philly got reamed by Boston. Etc.

Better hope Okongwu drops to us. Or, if he doesn't drop to us, that we take the BPA at #9. Or, if we don't take the BPA, that we trade down. Yikes!

I get it, you are against trading up. Tommy has made clear he is not against trading up.

No, I just question if there'd be a deal worth making. If there is a good deal to be had, why not? Might not be GS for that matters -- who knows? But, if you ask to trade up for one particular player, that's a scenario in which you'd be likely to have to overpay -- as in any similar scenario outside of basketball.

DCZards wrote:

payitforward wrote:Must be why they picked Barrett, Hunter, Culver, Garland, Hayes & Reddish in the top 10, right? & let Johnson, Thybulle & Clarke fall into the teens & twenties, while allowing Martin, Gafford, Paschall, & Mann to drop into R2

Whoa…not so fast PIF. The verdict is still out on just how good guys like Barrett, Hunter, Culver, Garland, Hayes and Reddish are going to be. They were all just 19 or 20 years old when they were drafted last year, with just one-year of college basketball experience.

It’s foolhardy to compare these youngin’s with guys like Thybulle, Clarke, Martin, Paschall, Mann & Gafford., all of whom (except for Gafford) were at least 22 years old with 3 or 4 years of college experience when they were drafted last year.

Personally, I’m still pretty bullish on Barrett, Reddish and Garland….even after seeing them struggle for the most part as rookies.

Sure! & I hope they do -- every single one of them. Meanwhile, Brandon Clarke is already one of the most productive PFs in the league, & Thybulle has shown himself to be a special player on defense.

I was wrong about Troy Brown, Zards. When will the time come that you are ready to say, "I was wrong about DeAndre Hunter?" Again... it's pick not player. Atlanta has already demonstrated that they made bad use of the #4 pick (which they traded value to acquire).

Let's say Hunter has a 2d bad season & is traded for, as it were, pennies on the dollar. Let's say that then he has a good 3d year: will you be willing to say that Atlanta made a bad pick?

doclinkin wrote:

payitforward wrote:Who was it you compared Branden Clarke to last year? Oh yeah... Tim Thomas.
...

doclinkin wrote:We? Get highlights and the opinions of knowitalls. Present company happily included....

Weird, ain't it? How do we do it, I wonder? Well, here's one thing: you & I remember Tim Thomas.

Ooof perfectly good snark ruined by senility....

Got me! Tyrus Thomas

doclinkin wrote:Perhaps you are wrong, as you were with Bryant, Troy Brown, etc.

Might be you this time, doc -- I was a big supporter of Bryant immediately.

doclinkin wrote:If you had your wits about you would recall I brought up Clarke before all, then took the contrarian position because a certain someone was being disagreeable and bloviating on the topic I am on a message board, so my only job is to bring entertaining content and to stir up conversation.

I'm on a message board, doc, so my only job there was to stir up conversation.

doclinkin wrote:... you also liked Thomas and thought he would succeed...

When I said I liked Thomas I was just trying to be nice to you. A lot of good it does me.

Well... that's not quite fair: I also like to watch you preen & lick your fur. You are so very good at it!

payitforward wrote:

doclinkin wrote:...Anyone got a good link for players ages?

I usually just google the guy by name -- birthday/age are always there.

.

Yeah. It just seems like useful data if I could cross reference it in a single search. The earlier a player is productive, the higher it seems they top out in development, so said a study I read. Seemed to me it would be useful to note if there were particular stats where this was more true.

You really seem to want to do this. You are really insisting on it. Ok...

doclinkin wrote:FWIW, my point on Achiuwa was not that we should pick him above all others.

No, your point was that if Tommy took Precious Achiuwa at #9, that would be ok with you. That's what you wrote.

doclinkin wrote:For what it's worth there are players who are MOCKED lower down that I like better than Achiuwa. Xavier Tillman is one.

Ergo, if Tommy took Xavier Tillman at #9 that would be ok with you. Or, would it? Still waiting for you to be clear on that.

doclinkin wrote:If you like a guy as a fit, then maybe you take him where he is available. If someone comes along later who likes him more and your 2b guy is available at their pick, then you can listen to offers. But either way you already have a guy you like if those offers do not materialize. THAT is how trade downs work best.

Not really. In fact, I'm not sure I can think of a single trade-down that did work that way.

But, you must have some in mind that worked that way -- why don't you name a few?

doclinkin wrote:

payitforward wrote:

doclinkin wrote:...Anyone got a good link for players ages?

I usually just google the guy by name -- birthday/age are always there.

.

Yeah. It just seems like useful data if I could cross reference it in a single search. The earlier a player is productive, the higher it seems they top out in development, so said a study I read. Seemed to me it would be useful to note if there were particular stats where this was more true.

Yes, that's a great idea, doc -- never thought of that!

payitforward wrote:

doclinkin wrote:Perhaps you are wrong, as you were with Bryant, Troy Brown, etc.

Might be you this time, doc -- I was a big supporter of Bryant immediately.

Big supporter. First post on Bryant 2 years after he was drafted:

payitforward wrote:

Illmatic12 wrote:

Gig18 wrote:he apparently played well in the G league last year too. who knows?

The DC GoGo will be very excited to have him

Yup. That's what this is about.

Ok then you researched his G-League stats and liked them. All I'm saying is Tommy got there first. So why not trust him for now.

payitforward wrote:

pcbothwel wrote:I think Tankathon does a good job for a high level view of stats, comparisons, etc.

I use this:

per 40 minutes / per 100 possessions / Advanced are what I look at.

I seem to have left out the link -- here's Precious https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/precious-achiuwa-1.html

doclinkin wrote:

payitforward wrote:

doclinkin wrote:Perhaps you are wrong, as you were with Bryant, Troy Brown, etc.

Might be you this time, doc -- I was a big supporter of Bryant immediately.

Big supporter. First post on Bryant 2 years after he was drafted:

payitforward wrote:

Illmatic12 wrote:The DC GoGo will be very excited to have him

Yup. That's what this is about.

Ok then you researched his G-League stats and liked them. All I'm saying is Tommy got there first. So why not trust him for now.

Sheesh.... You want to fight about everything! Take a look at the first few pages of the Bryant thread, & see who his big supporters/detractors were.

payitforward wrote:You really seem to want to do this. You are really insisting on it. Ok...

doclinkin wrote:FWIW, my point on Achiuwa was not that we should pick him above all others.

No, your point was that if Tommy took Precious Achiuwa at #9, that would be ok with you. That's what you wrote.

Yes. Given the contacts Tommy has, I do believe he has a better read on whether guys he has tabbed as good players are likely to be available lower down, than does any of us fussy old cranks on a message board. And since his picks of certain players has surprised me, and since they have proven better than some players lower down, for now I am still in the mindset of: give Tommy some slack. If his scouting department liked Achiuwa, then I am okay with seeing what the kid can do.

As for the rest, it speaks to the same point: we have no idea what trades DIDN'T happen, where players stayed with a team that selected them. The only trades we hear about ahead of time are ones where a player and pick are attached. Commonly on draft night when trades happen we hear 'such and such a player is selected by...' and we wonder why this was the case only to find out minutes later when they have to switch hats, so to speak. Hoopshype is chockfull of rumors after the fact of trades that evaporated. The Woj commonly has good intel on the crosstalk in draft rooms. I expect Tommy has a pretty good read on who is doing what. If you hear people throughout the league talk about him it is generally in glowing terms. I think he has friends out there who are willing to do him favors and owe him favors.

We are okay with this where the 9th and 11th picks are swapped?

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/draft_simulator/view/772995/

Here's another interesting note. One place I like to hunt is to find the Team with the best defense and ID the most critical player to that defense. This will find you role players who already know fundamental D and can exemplify it to other players. Teammates who already understand defense are less likely to stay benched if a coach calls their number, therefore you get more value for the pick in terms of useful minutes played.

Generally that means you're looking at players from Michigan State and Virginia. This year we had a new leader:

https://hoop-math.com/leader_d2020.php

Precious again as the anchorman of the top Defense in the league.

Penny Hardaway is doing a masterful job with Memphis. Not noted for his D as a player, Penny came in with the mission to transform Memphis, hoping to make them a top 10 or top 20 squad on D. HIs team bought in, all the way, earning the top spot in the land on Defense. His transition D is excellent, but they excel at making things difficult on the interior.

Teams of two of the other Bigs I like show up in the top 10 in opponent eFG%. Michigan State with Xavier Tillman Sr., and Washington with the ricocheting bowling ball Isaiah Stewart.

More and more I like Stewart as a prospect if we can steal a late pick. If you have a high energy hard working big, you have the raw materials to shape into a significant force. A player like Bam started out with holes in his offensive game, but due to desire and willpower and athleticism, he developed into the lynchpin player for the EC contending Miami Heat. Tell me this kid doesn't show some of the same Defensive 'go-get-it' as Adebayo:



You can see where his athleticism shows up better on this end than on offense where he often sets up too deep under the bucket and doesn't have room to operate. Footwork and a Big Man tutor will help here. On defense he keeps active feet and covers a lot of ground, taking no plays off. That's a very good sign for his future development. His strength in holding his ground is as impressive as his blocks. I like his read and reacts on steals and falling back to cover for other players blown plays, which suggests he will show and recover well on P&R defense. With blocks he shows heads up play keeping them in play and either corralling them himself or directing them towards the opposite basket. And as I said he runs hard, beating players to the other end of the court in both directions. Often he will rebound the ball then be the first player up court on offense. I'd be startled if he is picked in the 20's where he is mocked right now.

doclinkin wrote:Here's another interesting note. One place I like to hunt is to find the Team with the best defense and ID the most critical player to that defense. This will find you role players who already know fundamental D and can exemplify it to other players. Teammates who already understand defense are less likely to stay benched if a coach calls their number, therefore you get more value for the pick in terms of useful minutes played.

Generally that means you're looking at players from Michigan State and Virginia. This year we had a new leader:

https://hoop-math.com/leader_d2020.php

Precious again as the anchorman of the top Defense in the league.

Penny Hardaway is doing a masterful job with Memphis. Not noted for his D as a player, Penny came in with the mission to transform Memphis, hoping to make them a top 10 or top 20 squad on D. HIs team bought in, all the way, earning the top spot in the land on Defense. His transition D is excellent, but they excel at making things difficult on the interior.

Teams of two of the other Bigs I like show up in the top 10 in opponent eFG%. Michigan State with Xavier Tillman Sr., and Washington with the ricocheting bowling ball Isaiah Stewart.

More and more I like Stewart as a prospect if we can steal a late pick. If you have a high energy hard working big, you have the raw materials to shape into a significant force. A player like Bam started out with holes in his offensive game, but due to desire and willpower and athleticism, he developed into the lynchpin player for the EC contending Miami Heat. Tell me this kid doesn't show some of the same Defensive 'go-get-it' as Adebayo:

Watch on YouTube

You can see where his athleticism shows up better on this end than on offense where he often sets up too deep under the bucket and doesn't have room to operate. Footwork and a Big Man tutor will help here. On defense he keeps active feet and covers a lot of ground, taking no plays off. That's a very good sign for his future development. His strength in holding his ground is as impressive as his blocks. I like his read and reacts on steals and falling back to cover for other players blown plays, which suggests he will show and recover well on P&R defense. With blocks he shows heads up play keeping them in play and either corralling them himself or directing them towards the opposite basket. And as I said he runs hard, beating players to the other end of the court in both directions. Often he will rebound the ball then be the first player up court on offense. I'd be startled if he is picked in the 20's where he is mocked right now.

How do we get both Okongwu and Stewart?

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-hornets-trade-up-to-take-anthony-edwards-at-no-1-lamelo-ball-goes-to-warriors/

doclinkin wrote:

payitforward wrote:You really seem to want to do this. You are really insisting on it. Ok...

doclinkin wrote:FWIW, my point on Achiuwa was not that we should pick him above all others.

No, your point was that if Tommy took Precious Achiuwa at #9, that would be ok with you. That's what you wrote.

Yes. Given the contacts Tommy has, I do believe he has a better read on whether guys he has tabbed as good players are likely to be available lower down, than does any of us fussy old cranks on a message board. And since his picks of certain players has surprised me, and since they have proven better than some players lower down, for now I am still in the mindset of: give Tommy some slack. If his scouting department liked Achiuwa, then I am okay with seeing what the kid can do.

Perfectly logical, doc. But surely it can't apply only to Achiuwa. Whoever he takes at #9 falls in the same "give Tommy some slack" bucket.

So, If he takes Tillman at #9, ditto. Or Pokusevski, Vasssell, Okoro, Nesmith, Tyrese Maxey... all the same: no problem. That's a consistent POV. Obviously, one could take a different one. But, if this is what you mean then it it's consistent. Otherwise, well... where's the slack?

I agree that Tommy has made some outstanding moves; how could one disagree? He got Bryant, Bonga & Bertans for nothing, & I credit him for the pick of Brown as well. All "B" names. Hmmm, you know what? If Precious Achiuwa spelled his last name Bachiuwa, I might be all over him!

But, lame jokes aside, do you also think picking Hachimura @#9 was of that kind of excellence? How about targeting Admiral Schofield & making a move to be sure to get him?

Of course referring to "his picks of certain players... (who) have proven better than some players lower down" doesn't amount to high praise anyway. After all, guys are supposed to be better than other guys taken lower down! It's kind of a low bar, isn't it? What if there are also a fair number of guys taken below Tommy's pick who are better than the guy he picks?

More deserving of praise is that he's also taken players (both Brown & Hachimura as a matter of fact) who have proven better than some players taken higher up. But, maybe that's more of an indictment of the GMs who took those other guys than it is evidence of anything about Tommy?

Anyway, for all we know Precious Achiuwa isn't in Tommy Sheppard's sights at all! We were discussing something altogether different -- whether it would make sense to take him at #9 , whoever did the taking! Got nothing to do with Tommy!

Right now, I don't think so, no. I don't think it would make sense to take him at #9.

But, hey, the draft is still far away (unbelievably!). I might change my mind. &, obviously even if I don't change my mind, whatever I think isn't a criticism of Precious Achiuwa -- if we traded #9 for #14 & 30, for example, I might be calling for us to pick him at 14.

Let's leave it at that.

dckingsfan wrote:How do we get both Okongwu and Stewart?

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2020-nba-mock-draft-hornets-trade-up-to-take-anthony-edwards-at-no-1-lamelo-ball-goes-to-warriors/

It's always fun to see a mock that's substantially different from any you've seen to date -- & this fits the bill. Not to mention that he's nice enough to make sure we get Okongwu!

Meanwhile, Precious Achiuwa doesn't hear his name called until #20, & Tillman puts a hat one only 2 picks later.

But, Stewart goes to the Celtics at #26.

Assuming we don't get Okongwu, I'm favoring a trade down with Boston. We send 9 and 37 to them for 14, 26, and 30. We pick Saddiq Bey at 14, and at 26 and 30 (I don't who goes first), we get Tyler Bey and Desmond Bane. I really like Bane. He reminds me of a better shooting version of Jae Crowder. That would be a Bey Bey Bane draft - easy to remember. All 3 are physically tough players - something that the Wiz need to add to their team personality, imo. I like that Tyler makes up for Saddiq's rebounding issue and adds a good defender - and playing 2 6'8 220ish lb forwards seems like a way of the future/present in the NBA, and Bane adds a 6'6 220 pound perimeter player. Saddiq and Bane give the Wiz 2 legit 3 point shooters - with Bane having deeper range that really stretches defenses. If Haliburton is there at 9, Boston makes this trade.