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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1341 » by doclinkin » Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:48 pm

Ruzious wrote:Assuming we don't get Okongwu, I'm favoring a trade down with Boston. We send 9 and 37 to them for 14, 26, and 30. We pick Saddiq Bey at 14, and at 26 and 30 (I don't who goes first), we get Tyler Bey and Desmond Bane. I really like Bane. He reminds me of a better shooting version of Jae Crowder. That would be a Bey Bey Bane draft - easy to remember. All 3 are physically tough players - something that the Wiz need to add to their team personality, imo. I like that Tyler makes up for Saddiq's rebounding issue and adds a good defender - and playing 2 6'8 220ish lb forwards seems like a way of the future/present in the NBA, and Bane adds a 6'6 220 pound perimeter player. Saddiq and Bane give the Wiz 2 legit 3 point shooters - with Bane having deeper range that really stretches defenses. If Haliburton is there at 9, Boston makes this trade.



As much as I advocate for other players and team needs, Halliburton is the guy I feel like over the years teams are going to wonder how they passed him up. If his health allows. He is the sort of player who will constantly add to his game and improve. Put him with Drew Hanlen or another skills guru and he will add to his bag of tricks every year. I'd listen to offers if he fell to us, but watching his game footage -- damn I really like that kid. He plays a total game in both directions. If a significant % of a players talent is their willingness to work and improve, I feel like this is one of the most talented players in the draft. Smartest in any case.

I'm all over the map on this draft.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1342 » by pcbothwel » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:08 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Ruzious wrote:Assuming we don't get Okongwu, I'm favoring a trade down with Boston. We send 9 and 37 to them for 14, 26, and 30. We pick Saddiq Bey at 14, and at 26 and 30 (I don't who goes first), we get Tyler Bey and Desmond Bane. I really like Bane. He reminds me of a better shooting version of Jae Crowder. That would be a Bey Bey Bane draft - easy to remember. All 3 are physically tough players - something that the Wiz need to add to their team personality, imo. I like that Tyler makes up for Saddiq's rebounding issue and adds a good defender - and playing 2 6'8 220ish lb forwards seems like a way of the future/present in the NBA, and Bane adds a 6'6 220 pound perimeter player. Saddiq and Bane give the Wiz 2 legit 3 point shooters - with Bane having deeper range that really stretches defenses. If Haliburton is there at 9, Boston makes this trade.



As much as I advocate for other players and team needs, Halliburton is the guy I feel like over the years teams are going to wonder how they passed him up. If his health allows. He is the sort of player who will constantly add to his game and improve. Put him with Drew Hanlen or another skills guru and he will add to his bag of tricks every year. I'd listen to offers if he fell to us, but watching his game footage -- damn I really like that kid. He plays a total game in both directions. If a significant % of a players talent is their willingness to work and improve, I feel like this is one of the most talented players in the draft. Smartest in any case.

I'm all over the map on this draft.


Doc, Im a Haliburton fan... but there are some issues that worry me in that they offset/neutralize his positives.
1) His inability to shoot off the dribble/funky shooting motion. What good is his vision out of the PnR if he isnt a threat to shoot a mid range shot. Its the same issue with Lonzo Ball.
2) His inability to get the basket/draw fouls. Dont be mislead by his FG% at the basket, as he does all of that damage at the rim in transition. In the half court, his poor strength and awkward shot render him useless

Those two factors SIGNIFICANTLY reduce Haliburtons effectiveness in the half court and I dont see them changing in the pros. I know some of cited his U19 performance as well, but it wasnt all that great and his team was FAR better than the competition.

Im having a hard time putting him above Vassell at this point. Personally, Haliburton vs Bane + Malachi Flynn is not an easy choice for me right now.

9 for 14, 26, & 47.

14: Poku
26: Bane (Bey as backup pick)
37: Tillman (Flynn as backup)
47: Flynn (Mays, Riller, Hinton as backup)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1343 » by doclinkin » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:37 pm

pcbothwel wrote:Doc, Im a Haliburton fan... but there are some issues that worry me in that they offset/neutralize his positives.
1) His inability to shoot off the dribble/funky shooting motion. What good is his vision out of the PnR if he isnt a threat to shoot a mid range shot. Its the same issue with Lonzo Ball.
2) His inability to get the basket/draw fouls. Dont be mislead by his FG% at the basket, as he does all of that damage at the rim in transition. In the half court, his poor strength and awkward shot render him useless


You're talking about him as if he is a finished player. I'm talking about his ability to develop. Which is why I said when teams look back. Yes you cite flaws in his game and mechanics. They are there. And yet even with those flaws he has been remarkably efficient and effective. Consider how much better his game would be if he can iron out those kinks. And are they fixable? Yes. Look at Otto Porter's odd form and slow catapult release in Georgetown, then check his swift development here to where he was unconscious from outside. Check Bradley Beal's limited ball handling when he arrived here and notice now he is playing as a ballhandling combo guard. Halliburton won't get much bigger (though all accounts suggest he is a late bloomer, he may add some strength, but he won't gain much muscle on that frame). But he absolutely can develop better form on pull-ups off the dribble, and add a floater to his game.

Player development is where you get great value, when you see a player whose FT% jumps from 69% to 82% in one year, you understand you are getting a mentally strong player who is willing to work on minutia. When you see a player double their USG% with minimal drop off in efficiency, you realize you are finding a player who makes smart decisions and plays within their skill set. That is the thing that he has at a world class level, the part that is nearly impossible to instill in a player. As a young player he is an instant veteran in terms of directing his team on defense, playing off the ball, understanding angles, understanding his team vs your team. Is he a current threat on the dribble drive? No. Do you think he knows that? Yes. But Steve Nash wasn't either. He too relied on transition buckets for his lay-ups and finishing on the interior. What Nash had was understanding of spacing and faster software than you. That is the quickslice evaluation I see in Haliburton's game. The flaws are there, and real, and eminently fixable.

On this team he is either passing to Beal off a screen or the big or the cutter or the standstill sniper when he subs for Wall, or he is himself running the same routes as Beal to get open on the outside. Check his % on corner 3's. Pretty sure Wall can work with 88%/67% from the baseline 3FG, considering he was hitting those passes at a historical rate when healthy. On this team he makes Rui better by getting him the ball when he is in position for a mismatch, ditto Bryant. He makes our 2nd team as dangerous as our starters, helps the learning curve and confidence of our young players. Offense and defense. Everybody eats.

Could we get more value in a package of picks from lower down? Yes. Quite probably. Our team has too many needs. But as far as best single player available at #9, over the length of his career, I think teams will look back saying who ever makes that pick got good value for the selection. I think he develops quickly, with the right team around him. Agreed the Celtics would use him well. Ditto GSW. The Spurs. The Raptors. Teams with good coaching.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1344 » by Ruzious » Tue Sep 22, 2020 4:57 pm

I agree with both of you on Haliburton. He's sure to be at least a very good player, but I don't see him as a future all-star because he's not a great creator - he's an excellent "roll player". He's an all-around quality player and a winner. If he was on the Wiz, I'm afraid they'd waste him because they already have 2 "stars" in the backcourt and might have Ish and/or Napier - who are somewhat ball-dominant. I think Boston would LOVE to get him and would be inclined to trade a nice package o picks to get him.

And I'd be fine with pcb's trade and picks. Can't argue with any of his choices, tbh.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1345 » by KJStark23 » Wed Sep 23, 2020 7:36 pm

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1346 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:34 pm

Ruzious wrote:I agree with both of you on Haliburton....

I agree with all 3 of you on Haliburton. Anyone else in...? :)

Ruzious wrote:...I think Boston would LOVE to get him and would be inclined to trade a nice package o picks to get him...

If Danny does want him a lot, then (assuming Okongwu is gone) it would be great to get better than "market value" for our #9 pick. Ordinarily, I'd say picking up #14 & #26 for #9 is already quite a good deal. If we somehow got #47 as well, I'd be thrilled.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1347 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:50 pm

Ruzious wrote:Assuming we don't get Okongwu, I'm favoring a trade down with Boston. We send 9 and 37 to them for 14, 26, and 30....

I don't see how they'd go for that, Ruz -- too big a win for us. Minor point, however, as we could add some $$ or figure out some other way to sweeten it slightly.
Ruzious wrote:...We pick Saddiq Bey at 14, and at 26 and 30 (I don't who goes first), we get Tyler Bey and Desmond Bane. I really like Bane. He reminds me of a better shooting version of Jae Crowder. That would be a Bey Bey Bane draft - easy to remember....

Genius! Absolute genius.... After we re-signed Davis, we'd have Bertans, Bryant, Brown, Bonga, Bey, Bey & Bane. For sure we would B all right. (groan....)

Ruzious wrote: All 3 are physically tough players - something that the Wiz need to add to their team personality, imo. I like that Tyler makes up for Saddiq's rebounding issue and adds a good defender - and playing 2 6'8 220ish lb forwards seems like a way of the future/present in the NBA, and Bane adds a 6'6 220 pound perimeter player. Saddiq and Bane give the Wiz 2 legit 3 point shooters - with Bane having deeper range that really stretches defenses. If Haliburton is there at 9, Boston makes this trade.

If they make it, we do it. I don't even care if Haliburton changes his name to Balihurton...
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1348 » by payitforward » Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:06 pm

pcbothwel wrote:...9 for 14, 26, & 47....

Again, I don't see Boston giving up those 2 extra picks to jump his #14 up 5 spots. We'd have to include our #37. Minor, as we could get to your goal by buying a high R2 pick from Elton Brand.

pcbothwel wrote:14: Poku
26: Bane (Bey as backup pick)
37: Tillman (Flynn as backup)
47: Flynn (Mays, Riller, Hinton as backup)

In this scenario, I'm up for the Poku experiment! But, I'm not sure Bane will be there at 26, maybe not even Bey. So then it's Tillman at 26, Flynn w/ #3X, & Mays or Hinton @47.

Poku, Tillman, Flynn & Mays or Hinton... I think I like it!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1349 » by Ruzious » Wed Sep 23, 2020 10:05 pm

payitforward wrote:
Ruzious wrote:I agree with both of you on Haliburton....

I agree with all 3 of you on Haliburton. Anyone else in...? :)

Ruzious wrote:...I think Boston would LOVE to get him and would be inclined to trade a nice package o picks to get him...

If Danny does want him a lot, then (assuming Okongwu is gone) it would be great to get better than "market value" for our #9 pick. Ordinarily, I'd say picking up #14 & #26 for #9 is already quite a good deal. If we somehow got #47 as well, I'd be thrilled.

On the draft value chart, 9 is worth 445, 14 is worth 335, 26 is 180, 30 is 145, and 37 is worth 90. So, if we trade 9 and 37 for 14,26, and 30, we'd be trading 535 points for 660. So yeah, Boston would be paying a premium for my trade to get Hali - which makes sense to me.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1350 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:53 am

Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

You've got them overpaying by 23% -- that is a whole lot, obviously. It's virtually even if we give them 9 & 37 & they give back 14 & 26. If they threw in their #47 instead of #30, I bet it'd still be in our favor. The Pelton chart actually makes it seem a bit better: they overpay by 16%. 9 + 37 for 14, 26 & 47 is very close to even.

Again, it doesn't really matter. These charts aren't straitjackets, & anyway if both teams want the trade, then $ can be used to equalize it. Or the teams can exchange R2 picks next year.

OTOH, I'd be happy with 14, 26 & 47 for 9 & 37. Or, make it next year's R2 pick in place of this year's 47, & then buy #34 from Philly.

Unless Okongwu is available at #9.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1351 » by Ruzious » Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:06 pm

payitforward wrote:Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.


Here you go: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1352 » by pcbothwel » Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:55 pm

payitforward wrote:Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

You've got them overpaying by 23% -- that is a whole lot, obviously. It's virtually even if we give them 9 & 37 & they give back 14 & 26. If they threw in their #47 instead of #30, I bet it'd still be in our favor. The Pelton chart actually makes it seem a bit better: they overpay by 16%. 9 + 37 for 14, 26 & 47 is very close to even.

Again, it doesn't really matter. These charts aren't straitjackets, & anyway if both teams want the trade, then $ can be used to equalize it. Or the teams can exchange R2 picks next year.

OTOH, I'd be happy with 14, 26 & 47 for 9 & 37. Or, make it next year's R2 pick in place of this year's 47, & then buy #34 from Philly.

Unless Okongwu is available at #9.


PIF... Something is clearly off about that chart. Maybe its because it takes the value of each pick individually and doesnt take into account roster spots...I.E. Philly wont/cant draft and add 5 rookies to their roster, but it says they could get the 9th/10th pick by trading 21, 34, 36, 49, 58.
That seems crazy to me that any team would ever drop from 9 to 21 for two early 2nds.
Or more clearly, it says that 34, 36, 49, and 58 are worth the 21st pick in the draft.

That said, Vassell is growing on me even more. Im seeing an underrated athlete that can score from all three levels and be high end defender on the perimeter...
He is my Otto Porter / Jimmy Butler player that every GM will look back and not understand how he was so underrated.

Remember, he is even younger than Porter was when drafted and two years younger than Butler was:
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=devin-vassell--jimmy-butler--otto-porter

I think he immediately comes in as your 3 & D wing next to Beal. Im actually considering moving him above Okongwu in my top 5.

I know the video below are highlights, but I just want to point out some things that people may not pick up as the "Telephone" game has made him seem like an unathletic spot up shooter.

;t=384s

Within the 1st minute Im seeing ballhandling, hesitation, step backs, alley oops, put back (1:00), etc. We NEVER saw Otto do things like this.
1:02 - Look at the quick ness in which he gets up the court and dunks the ball
1:25 - Dude looks like Beal. Goes left off the PnR, defender jumps it so he goes behind the back and lobs to a teammate.
2:12 - Active hands gets the steal... But just as important, look how excited he is to pass to his teammate for the dunk. i love it.
2:28 - Pay close attention here. Yes, he causes the steal, but as he runs up ahead for the fast break he gets turned around... Look at his great balance and ball tracking skill to catch the pass and immediately goes up for a dunk. Thats an athlete.

2:47 - WOW... That sequence. In the protected area for a rebound and blocking off the big. IMMEDIATLEY read the pass and steals it to be off to the races and casually windmills the dunk. Look how effortless he goes from boxing out to sprinting up the court. Demon.
His defensive activity is insane... anyone who puts Okoro over him is crazy.
6:36 - Reads the backdoor cut and gets the steal, sprints ahead, takes a one dribble cross over and throws down a nasty two hand dunk.

Seriously, you can literally watch every play of this reel and see the IQ and skill. And while it may be hard to ever find a PURE 3 & D the way Otto was, Vassell is a better athlete and has a quiet confidence similar to Beal that will allow him so be vocal defensively.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1353 » by Frichuela » Thu Sep 24, 2020 3:16 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

You've got them overpaying by 23% -- that is a whole lot, obviously. It's virtually even if we give them 9 & 37 & they give back 14 & 26. If they threw in their #47 instead of #30, I bet it'd still be in our favor. The Pelton chart actually makes it seem a bit better: they overpay by 16%. 9 + 37 for 14, 26 & 47 is very close to even.

Again, it doesn't really matter. These charts aren't straitjackets, & anyway if both teams want the trade, then $ can be used to equalize it. Or the teams can exchange R2 picks next year.

OTOH, I'd be happy with 14, 26 & 47 for 9 & 37. Or, make it next year's R2 pick in place of this year's 47, & then buy #34 from Philly.

Unless Okongwu is available at #9.


PIF... Something is clearly off about that chart. Maybe its because it takes the value of each pick individually and doesnt take into account roster spots...I.E. Philly wont/cant draft and add 5 rookies to their roster, but it says they could get the 9th/10th pick by trading 21, 34, 36, 49, 58.
That seems crazy to me that any team would ever drop from 9 to 21 for two early 2nds.
Or more clearly, it says that 34, 36, 49, and 58 are worth the 21st pick in the draft.

That said, Vassell is growing on me even more. Im seeing an underrated athlete that can score from all three levels and be high end defender on the perimeter...
He is my Otto Porter / Jimmy Butler player that every GM will look back and not understand how he was so underrated.

Remember, he is even younger than Porter was when drafted and two years younger than Butler was:
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=devin-vassell--jimmy-butler--otto-porter

I think he immediately comes in as your 3 & D wing next to Beal. Im actually considering moving him above Okongwu in my top 5.

I know the video below are highlights, but I just want to point out some things that people may not pick up as the "Telephone" game has made him seem like an unathletic spot up shooter.

;t=384s

Within the 1st minute Im seeing ballhandling, hesitation, step backs, alley oops, put back (1:00), etc. We NEVER saw Otto do things like this.
1:02 - Look at the quick ness in which he gets up the court and dunks the ball
1:25 - Dude looks like Beal. Goes left off the PnR, defender jumps it so he goes behind the back and lobs to a teammate.
2:12 - Active hands gets the steal... But just as important, look how excited he is to pass to his teammate for the dunk. i love it.
2:28 - Pay close attention here. Yes, he causes the steal, but as he runs up ahead for the fast break he gets turned around... Look at his great balance and ball tracking skill to catch the pass and immediately goes up for a dunk. Thats an athlete.

2:47 - WOW... That sequence. In the protected area for a rebound and blocking off the big. IMMEDIATLEY read the pass and steals it to be off to the races and casually windmills the dunk. Look how effortless he goes from boxing out to sprinting up the court. Demon.
His defensive activity is insane... anyone who puts Okoro over him is crazy.
6:36 - Reads the backdoor cut and gets the steal, sprints ahead, takes a one dribble cross over and throws down a nasty two hand dunk.

Seriously, you can literally watch every play of this reel and see the IQ and skill. And while it may be hard to ever find a PURE 3 & D the way Otto was, Vassell is a better athlete and has a quiet confidence similar to Beal that will allow him so be vocal defensively.


I see the appeal of Vassell.

Two reservations: size and strength.

1) How tall is he really? I have seen him listed as short as 6'5" and as tall as 6'7". Those two inches make a difference when guarding big wings.
2) How much does he weigh? Tankathon has him at 194 lbs...That seems too light to be effective (and durable) when playing the 3..
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1354 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:17 pm

Frichuela wrote:I see the appeal of Vassell.

Two reservations: size and strength.

1) How tall is he really? I have seen him listed as short as 6'5" and as tall as 6'7". Those two inches make a difference when guarding big wings.
2) How much does he weigh? Tankathon has him at 194 lbs...That seems too light to be effective (and durable) when playing the 3..


"Tall" matters less than standing reach and wingspan. He has really long arms which clearly allows him to defend well and take up a great deal of space.

As for weight, yes he is sleight, slim, right now. But though he is a sophomore he would have been 19 at the time of the draft in a regular draft year. His frame does look like he will be able to add muscle, if he is willing to work.

Oddly I find improvement in FT% is a significant predictor of improvement in the NBA, including whether a player is able to add muscle in offseasons. It makes sense even if it is not intuitive. The only way to get better at FT% is by doing boring and repetitive work in muscle memory and micro movements. It requires willpower and effort. Ditto offseason gym workouts and skill work. Vassell improved from a 67% FT shooter to a 73% shooter, which may not look like much but that's a pretty significant jump. The other measure that suggests whether a player is gaining strength is in Defensive boards, can they hold their ground. Here too we see an uptick. He's not yet rebounding like a SF, which makes sense since he is primarily guarding the perimeter, but still, he earns 10 boards/100 possessions, which is not bad. Good for a guard if that's how you see him.

He'll be a rookie, so naturally he will struggle early, and even seasoned veterans struggle with the "Power Smalls" like LeBJ, Durant, Giannis, etc. But will he put in work and good effort to improve and will he reach his potential and will he be a useful player, whatever his position: I say yes. And if he plays really well as a guard, like starter quality, then a) think how many minutes Beal has had to play with no proper relief behind him, b) think how defenses will be forced to adjust if they have to account for shooters in motion using screens on both sides of the floor. To say nothing of trade value of incumbent players at the position if the team were forced to go in that direction.

If Vasell is the best player available at 9, I'm okay with listening to offers but if they aren't much then I'm happy with the selection.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1355 » by Frichuela » Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:33 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Frichuela wrote:I see the appeal of Vassell.

Two reservations: size and strength.

1) How tall is he really? I have seen him listed as short as 6'5" and as tall as 6'7". Those two inches make a difference when guarding big wings.
2) How much does he weigh? Tankathon has him at 194 lbs...That seems too light to be effective (and durable) when playing the 3..


"Tall" matters less than standing reach and wingspan. He has really long arms which clearly allows him to defend well and take up a great deal of space.

As for weight, yes he is sleight, slim, right now. But though he is a sophomore he would have been 19 at the time of the draft in a regular draft year. His frame does look like he will be able to add muscle, if he is willing to work.

Oddly I find improvement in FT% is a significant predictor of improvement in the NBA, including whether a player is able to add muscle in offseasons. It makes sense even if it is not intuitive. The only way to get better at FT% is by doing boring and repetitive work in muscle memory and micro movements. It requires willpower and effort. Ditto offseason gym workouts and skill work. Vassell improved from a 67% FT shooter to a 73% shooter, which may not look like much but that's a pretty significant jump. The other measure that suggests whether a player is gaining strength is in Defensive boards, can they hold their ground. Here too we see an uptick. He's not yet rebounding like a SF, which makes sense since he is primarily guarding the perimeter, but still, he earns 10 boards/100 possessions, which is not bad. Good for a guard if that's how you see him.

He'll be a rookie, so naturally he will struggle early, and even seasoned veterans struggle with the "Power Smalls" like LeBJ, Durant, Giannis, etc. But will he put in work and good effort to improve and will he reach his potential and will he be a useful player, whatever his position: I say yes. And if he plays really well as a guard, like starter quality, then a) think how many minutes Beal has had to play with no proper relief behind him, b) think how defenses will be forced to adjust if they have to account for shooters in motion using screens on both sides of the floor. To say nothing of trade value of incumbent players at the position if the team were forced to go in that direction.

If Vasell is the best player available at 9, I'm okay with listening to offers but if they aren't much then I'm happy with the selection.


Again, in relation to wingspan there is quite a lot of discrepancy: the chaps at Stepien have him at 6'9.5"" but others have him at near 7'.

Look forward to the new Pandemic version of the combine..hopefully he'll get measured. A Vassell at over 6'6" (no shoes) and 6'11" wingspan is (to me) much more attractive than a 6'4.5" (no shoes) and 6'9.5" wingspan.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1356 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:07 pm

He came into college 6'5". Was 6'3" as a jr in high school. Now measures 6'7". Could be still growing. That's what had Paul George underrated, late growth spurt.

FSU has him at 6'7" height and 6' 9.25" wingspan. Which would be long for a 2 guard, short for a SF. It's a fair question.

I'm more concerned always on if a guy can play, period. The measure being: can you envision him getting good minutes on squads like the Spurs. GSW. Miami. Raptors. Boston. If the answer is yes then he's a player. You find a spot for him.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1357 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:32 pm

pcbothwel wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2....

PIF... Something is clearly off about that chart. Maybe its because it takes the value of each pick individually and doesnt take into account roster spots...I.E. Philly wont/cant draft and add 5 rookies to their roster, but it says they could get the 9th/10th pick by trading 21, 34, 36, 49, 58.
That seems crazy to me that any team would ever drop from 9 to 21 for two early 2nds.
Or more clearly, it says that 34, 36, 49, and 58 are worth the 21st pick in the draft....

Pretty much any such valuation chart in any field could be made to look ridiculous in that way. Think about the value of used cars. Imagine that you could trade a 2004 Mercedes, a 2008 Volvo, a 2012 F150, & a 2015 Mazda, & a... something else -- & get back a new Hyundai.

1. No one has all those cars to trade.
2. No one who, for whatever reason, did have them would want a new Hyundai.
3. ...etc.

IOW, the chart just says if a team needed a whole bunch of low picks for some strange reason... that's a way to get them. Doesn't imply anyone would want to.

After all, you do need some valuation measures for the more ordinary trades (i.e. of 1 pick for 2 lower picks). Or, to put it another way, it's *likely* scenarios that contribute most, overwhelmingly so, to determining the overall list.

Otoh, this...
pcbothwel wrote:...seems crazy to me that any team would ever drop from 9 to 21 for two early 2nds.

...is just an arithmetic error on your part. E.g. #11 gets #21, 32 & 33. If I thought I could get Poku, Tillman & Bey at those spots wouldn't I at least think about giving up #11?

Sure I would! One obvious thing is that you, like so many people, seem to automatically over-value higher picks. Out of this list of 10 players -- Jerryd Bayless, Terence Williams, Cole Aldrich, Klay Thompson, Meyers Leonard, Michael Carter-Williams, Doug McDermott, Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis & Malik Monk -- how many became good players soon enough to benefit the team that drafted them?

The answer is 3 -- & that list, obviously, is everyone picked at #11 from 2008-2017. :)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1358 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:15 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Not sure what "draft value chart" you are using, but I'd love to see it. This is the one I've been using: http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2.

Here you go: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/36wv9m/trying_to_create_an_nba_draft_trade_value_chart/

I like that chart better for true value than Pelton's. But, it's not in the favor of a team like ours which would be trading down from #9.

Your chart won't let you trade the #9 (445) for the #14 (335) & #30 (145), which you can certainly do according to Pelton. Add in the #37 (90), & you barely get 14 + 26 (180) for 9.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1359 » by doclinkin » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:20 pm

i like the idea of trading for future unknowable picks, and the options to flipflop. Though that seems a luxury afforded only to teams with a history of smart moves and a roster that is nearly complete. Still, you gotta start somewhere.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1360 » by payitforward » Thu Sep 24, 2020 7:26 pm

As much as I like that pick value chart, I like this even better (which I found linked on the reddit page):

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