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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1501 » by payitforward » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:24 pm

Slightly off topic... I hadn't had a chance to watch the 5th LAL-Miami game until this afternoon. What a tremendous game!

Watching it, I couldn't help but remember the response I got from so many people last year when I kept suggesting we trade down in the draft: "don't you realize," they asked over & over, "that the NBA is 'a star's league?' Why trade down from #9 -- the top of the draft, where the best players are? You'll just wind up with lesser players -- quantity over quality. That doesn't work in the NBA"

Of Miami's 240 minutes of player time, 55 minutes were played by guys who weren't even drafted, 87 minutes were played by guys drafted in R2 or #30, another 38 minutes were played by a guy who went #14, & 28 minutes went to a guy picked #13. Andre Iguodala, who did go #9 in the drafted, logged the remaining 20 minutes.

Of course, it was entirely different on the Lakers side, where only 37% of minutes went to guys who either weren't drafted, went in R2, or got picked in the last 30% of R1.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1502 » by nate33 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:34 pm

LA starts three #1 overall picks.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1503 » by Dat2U » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:41 am

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:Color me intrigued by the defensive potential of Achiuwa. He fits the modern game defensively. Can challenge shots and the rim and switch onto guards and hold his own.

Good points. But, we would expect to be able to get him further down in R1 than #9. &, since we would NOT be "all in" on Achiuwa (because that is always a mistake) but instead would have him on a tier with a few other guys, we'd be looking for a trade down.

Who'd be on that tier w/ Precious? Nesmith? Vassell? Pokusevski? Saddiq Bey? Jalen Smith?

Suppose we traded with the Kings -- they got our #9, & we got their #12, 43 & 52.

Now, let's suppose that Precious was gone when our #12 turn came. So, we take Jalen Smith instead. Then, at 43, let's suppose that Vernon Carey, Jr. is on the board, & we take him. At that #52 pick, let's say we choose Nate Hinton.

Is there any solid reason to think that Precious Achiuwa will be more valuable than all three of Jalen Smith, Vernon Carey, Jr. & Nate Hinton?

Actually, let me put that slightly differently:

is there any solid reason, right now, to think that Precious Achiuwa will be a better NBA player than Jalen Smith?

The answer to that question is, "No."

edit: but wait... perhaps Precious Achiuwa will still be on the board when we pick! In fact, just judging from a variety of mocks (not to say that means anything special), you'd probably expect to see him available at the #12 pick.

So, maybe we like him better than Nesmith, Vassell, Poku, Bey or Smith (not to say that there's any special reason, right now, to rate him higher than those guys) -- well, then, let's definitely take him. & still get Carey & Hinton.


Stats may say Jalen Smith or Vernon Carey but with the C spot, I've gotta put a heavier emphasis on rim protection and ability to switch on the perimeter because of course the C is the last line of defense and is quintessential to team defending at a high level. Additionally we've consistently seen the last few years that Cs who struggle in switches get put in the blender and played off the floor.

Thomas Bryant is quite productive and efficient and he can't switch or defend the rim yet. I don't see Jalen or Vernon being significantly better in this regard.

That said I'm not locked in on Achiuwa as the pick, he's on my radar for the 9th pick or a slight trade down. So are Nesmith, Hampton, Poku, Reed & Bey.

Right now my favorites are Nesmith, Achiuwa & Hampton in no order.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1504 » by Dat2U » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:45 am

nate33 wrote:LA starts three #1 overall picks.


Top heavy, they blow the idea of team building out the water. When you 2 of the top 5 guys in the NBA you don't need a legit 3rd option or a bench.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1505 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:55 am

nate33 wrote:LA starts three #1 overall picks.

Yes, well there is that of course.... :)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1506 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:25 pm

Dat2U wrote:
payitforward wrote:is there any solid reason, right now, to think that Precious Achiuwa will be a better NBA player than Jalen Smith?

The answer to that question is, "No."

edit: but wait... perhaps Precious Achiuwa will still be on the board when we pick! In fact, just judging from a variety of mocks (not to say that means anything special), you'd probably expect to see him available at the #12 pick.

So, maybe we like him better than Nesmith, Vassell, Poku, Bey or Smith (not to say that there's any special reason, right now, to rate him higher than those guys) -- well, then, let's definitely take him. & still get Carey & Hinton.

Stats may say Jalen Smith or Vernon Carey but with the C spot, I've gotta put a heavier emphasis on rim protection and ability to switch on the perimeter....

What's a good measure of "rim protection?" Blocks might be the best -- Carey & Achiuwa got the same # of blocks per 40 minutes. Smith got 20% more.

I can't think of an easy way to measure "ability to switch on the perimeter" -- unless you just want to say that being bigger makes it harder. That's self-defeating, obviously. So, how about a different kind of measure?

Per 40 minutes, Precious Achiuwa used 23.35 possessions* (15.7 shots, 7.9 FTAs, 3.7 TOs) to produce 20.7 points
Per 40 minutes, Jalen Smith used 17.75 possessions (12.9 shots, 5.3 FTAs, 2.2 TOs) to produce 17.5 points
Per 40 minutes, Vernon Carey used 26.85 possessions (17.9 shots, 11.3 FTAs, 3.3 TOs) to produce 28.6 points
*Note: "possessions" = FGAs + (.5 x FTAs) + TOs

Those are some shockingly large differences in impact. Fortunately, all we have to do is ignore them, & we can go back to ranking Centers exclusively based on the fact that...
Dat2U wrote:...C is the last line of defense and is quintessential to team defending at a high level.... Cs who struggle in switches get put in the blender and played off the floor.

Of course, I know you are not doing anything quite that one-sided, dat! -- :) -- Yet, I don't see anything being cited for Precious outside of his defense.

Yet, you are
Dat2U wrote:...not locked in on Achiuwa as the pick, he's on my radar for the 9th pick or a slight trade down. So are Nesmith, Hampton, Poku, Reed & Bey.

Right now my favorites are Nesmith, Achiuwa & Hampton in no order.

It seems obvious that a trade down would be the best move. & if Carey actually goes where he's being mocked these days (#40 or just above), that will be the biggest draft steal I can remember -- certainly the biggest since Draymond in '12.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1507 » by Dat2U » Mon Oct 12, 2020 2:45 pm

payitforward wrote:
Dat2U wrote:
payitforward wrote:is there any solid reason, right now, to think that Precious Achiuwa will be a better NBA player than Jalen Smith?

The answer to that question is, "No."

edit: but wait... perhaps Precious Achiuwa will still be on the board when we pick! In fact, just judging from a variety of mocks (not to say that means anything special), you'd probably expect to see him available at the #12 pick.

So, maybe we like him better than Nesmith, Vassell, Poku, Bey or Smith (not to say that there's any special reason, right now, to rate him higher than those guys) -- well, then, let's definitely take him. & still get Carey & Hinton.

Stats may say Jalen Smith or Vernon Carey but with the C spot, I've gotta put a heavier emphasis on rim protection and ability to switch on the perimeter....

What's a good measure of "rim protection?" Blocks might be the best -- Carey & Achiuwa got the same # of blocks per 40 minutes. Smith got 20% more.

I can't think of an easy way to measure "ability to switch on the perimeter" -- unless you just want to say that being bigger makes it harder. That's self-defeating, obviously. So, how about a different kind of measure?

Per 40 minutes, Precious Achiuwa used 23.35 possessions* (15.7 shots, 7.9 FTAs, 3.7 TOs) to produce 20.7 points
Per 40 minutes, Jalen Smith used 17.75 possessions (12.9 shots, 5.3 FTAs, 2.2 TOs) to produce 17.5 points
Per 40 minutes, Vernon Carey used 26.85 possessions (17.9 shots, 11.3 FTAs, 3.3 TOs) to produce 28.6 points
*Note: "possessions" = FGAs + (.5 x FTAs) + TOs

Those are some shockingly large differences in impact. Fortunately, all we have to do is ignore them, & we can go back to ranking Centers exclusively based on the fact that...
Dat2U wrote:...C is the last line of defense and is quintessential to team defending at a high level.... Cs who struggle in switches get put in the blender and played off the floor.

Of course, I know you are not doing anything quite that one-sided, dat! -- :) -- Yet, I don't see anything being cited for Precious outside of his defense.

Yet, you are
Dat2U wrote:...not locked in on Achiuwa as the pick, he's on my radar for the 9th pick or a slight trade down. So are Nesmith, Hampton, Poku, Reed & Bey.

Right now my favorites are Nesmith, Achiuwa & Hampton in no order.

It seems obvious that a trade down would be the best move. & if Carey actually goes where he's being mocked these days (#40 or just above), that will be the biggest draft steal I can remember -- certainly the biggest since Draymond in '12.


The points produced per possession by a college center does not answer the essential question I have. Will the C get played off the floor in the playoffs? Can he protect the rim well enough to clean up other folks messes? No, that doesn't just mean blocked shots. It means challenging shots. It means forcing teams into tougher shots. It means being in the right place at the right time. There are no clean measurements or stats for this. Alot of it is eye test. Achiuwa has better lateral quickness and defensive instincts which is what we need. I don't see the need for a duplication of Thomas Bryant on the Wizards roster.

Carey is a decent prospect. I have him top 20. But drafting a scoring C who doesn't have great defensive instincts doesn't solve any of the Wizards problems.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1508 » by payitforward » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:47 pm

I assume it's Carey whom you see as a duplicate Bryant. If so, & keeping in mind that my (imaginary!) trade schema would have us picking him somewhere around #40, you've provided another reason to take him -- rather than an argument not to!

That is, you've just made Thomas Bryant unnecessary, meaning that we can trade him. I like Bryant a whole lot. But, there's every reason to expect Carey to be just as good or better & in similar ways. So, move Bryant in a deal for Jarrett Allen. & there's your rim protector...! Btw, Allen is only 17 months older than Precious Achiuwa.

Carey will be $1m/year, so he also helps take care of the problem that Allen will be getting a sizable raise soon.

The way to build a team is to acquire maximum value. Period. Use trades to take care of your need to balance a bunch of different skills.

Imagine trading our #9 to the Pels for their #13, #39, & their R2 pick next year (a fair trade).

Now imagine trading Bryant & the #13 pick to the Nets for Allen & the #19 pick.

Now, instead of Precious Achiuwa & Thomas Bryant, we have Jarrett Allen, Vernon Carey, & the best player available at #19. Paul Reed is almost certain to be there at that spot -- but so might be Hampton or Poku or even Precious, who knows? Plus we have an extra R2 pick next year.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1509 » by youngWizzy » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:20 pm

Slight deviation but, NBA free agency starts Oct 18th. Based on signings and reports, we should have a good idea of what the team wants to do in the draft
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1510 » by DCZards » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:30 pm

Dat2U wrote:The points produced per possession by a college center does not answer the essential question I have. Will the C get played off the floor in the playoffs? Can he protect the rim well enough to clean up other folks messes? No, that doesn't just mean blocked shots. It means challenging shots. It means forcing teams into tougher shots. It means being in the right place at the right time. There are no clean measurements or stats for this. Alot of it is eye test. Achiuwa has better lateral quickness and defensive instincts which is what we need. I don't see the need for a duplication of Thomas Bryant on the Wizards roster.

Carey is a decent prospect. I have him top 20. But drafting a scoring C who doesn't have great defensive instincts doesn't solve any of the Wizards problems.


Yup, can’t measure good defense with stats alone.

These are the top players projected to likely be available in the 9-14 range: Haliburton, Vassell, Nesmith, S. Bey, Hampton, Achiuwa. It’s almost impossible to know for sure which one of them will be the BPA at 9, assuming that’s where the Zards end up picking. I’ve been on the Achiuwa bandwagon primarily because he has strengths that the Zards desperately need —rebounding, defensive versatility, rim protection, athleticism and energy.

The concerns about PA are legit: he’s raw as hell on offense; at 6-9 (which is the same height as Okongwu) he’s short for a center; he needs to put on weight; and at 21 he’s old for a freshman. So I certainly understand the skepticism in taking him at 9.

Okongwu is my first choice at 9 but, as I said before, I would not be disappointed if the Zards end up taking Precious at 9. He has just as good of a chance as being an outstanding player as anyone else in the 9-14 list above…plus Achiuwa fills some critical oncourt needs that the Zards MUST address.

This is from a new mock draft that has the Zards taking PA at 9:

Why Achiuwa?
Achiuwa plays with a huge motor and physicality that the Wizards desperately need. He’s raw, but he plays defense, sets big screens and doesn’t take a play off. Washington has a star in Beal and Wall might be able to return to form. If they can put a squad around these two, they might be able to get back in the playoff conversation. Achiuwa has a chance to be one of those players whose impact goes well beyond the numbers.

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/2020-nba-mock-draft-180-first-round-pick-projections-after-lakers-win-finals
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1511 » by Eli Babak » Mon Oct 12, 2020 4:35 pm

youngWizzy wrote:Slight deviation but, NBA free agency starts Oct 18th. Based on signings and reports, we should have a good idea of what the team wants to do in the draft


No, it doesn't. Draft is on November 18th so no way FA starts before that.

https://www.nba.com/key-dates

I guess FA starts in late November or early December.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1512 » by youngWizzy » Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:05 pm

Seems like I may be wrong as dates changed, but the plan was to have FA start immediately after the season concluded but with the draft being pushed it seems like FA may be postponed.

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1513 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:10 am

DCZards wrote:
Dat2U wrote:...Achiuwa has ... lateral quickness and defensive instincts...

Yup, can’t measure good defense with stats alone.

:) Two can play this game! :) Saying someone has good "lateral quickness and defensive instincts" is not the same as saying he plays "good defense." How about providing a reason -- from his actual play this season -- to think that Precious Achiuwa is an above-average defender. Oh, & there's also this: before a "C gets played off the floor," to quote Dat's concern, he has to get ON the floor. In college, Precious...

1. shot .599 from the FT line.
2. shot the college 3 at .325 (& only took the shot when wide open -- judging by how few he took)
3. shot the 2 point shot at way below the average FG% of an NBA 5 -- in college.
3. turned the ball over almost 25% as often as he took a shot.
4. didn't see the court well/pass well (low in assists).

Will those college skills get him on an NBA floor? The best way to answer "yes" will be to point to an NBA Center with a similar set of skills. Go ahead. I'll wait. After all, you also can't measure good defense without stats.

Ok, now that I've managed to paint this kid into a corner (!), let me say that, actually -- just like you two -- I think he's a very solid NBA prospect. His best skill -- rebounding the ball -- is said to be one that translates pretty straightforwardly. I'm not saying I don't want to draft Precious Achiuwa. I'm saying not at #9 in this draft. Very different.

Precious might turn out to be quite good. He might be better than Okongwu. He might even be the best player out of this entire draft. Or, he might not make it in the NBA at all. Or anywhere in between. & that's exactly how far we have narrowed the possibilities. IOW, you have no idea, & you have no ability whatever to predict -- none. Me neither.

& not just us. The people paid to know these things don't know either. That's why the order of how good guys are who come out of every single draft has no significant correlation whatever with the order of picks. Not once you get past picks #1-3. So, when you write...
DCZards wrote:...Precious ... has just as good of a chance as being an outstanding player as anyone else in the 9-14 list above…

...all you can possibly mean is that it's a crap shoot -- just pin the tail on the donkey. But, that completely misses the point of operating in the draft. Which is to use whatever draft assets you have to extract the maximum possible player-value from the process. If you have several guys, including Precious, on a tier at any pick position, then trade down to where at least one of those guys (or, accidentally, someone from a higher tier) will be available. The extra pick you add in the process means you get more player-value.

Of course, to trade down you need a trade partner. If you can't find one... then you have no choice; pick the best guy available as best you are able. &, naturally, you may wind up in that position. But, it sure as h6ll isn't where you start!

Yet, whoever drafts Precious -- whether we do or it's another team -- I hope he is a huge success who reaches the very peak of his potential. As I also wish is true for all these kids!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1514 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:29 am

Among qualifying freshmen in the last 10 years (10 games, 15 min per game minumum) Precious Achiuwa ranks in the top 10 in

Defensive points allowed per 100 possessions.

and Defensive Win shares

In large part because his rebounding % and def rebounding % are in the top 15 of these freshmen over the last 10 years, while his blocks and steals %'s are also in the top 30~50 of these players.

Granted, he's older than most freshmen. But if you include all players of whatever year he still ranks _just_ outside the top 20 in Points allowed per 100 possessions at #2 -- one notch behind Nerlens Noel, and a dozen or so places before Draymond Green's senior year.

So. There are numbers that suggest he's a solid defensive player. And many of the better defenders over the past 10 years show up on those lists. Especially Defensive Win shares (Unibrow, Marcus Smart, Tristan Thompson, Kawhi, Mo Bamba, Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter...)

As for Playign time. On this squad he would play for the same reasons Onyeka would play: nobody on this squad is doing what he does. We need a mobile rebounder who challenges shots and takes responsibility to make up for others mistakes. He lets Bryant try that developing face up game on offense. Covers for Bertans' hemophiliac boards work (bruises are dangerous). And does what Rui does not seem to have the instinct to do: rebound misses, force deflections, swat shots. He may clog the middle on offense and make it harder for John etc to find room, but he lets you play your outside shooters instead of needing to bulk up underneath. Defensively he stops the bleeding.

Precious was on one of the top 5 defensive teams in the NCAA this year, as the lynchpin player defending the basket. He rose to seize this role after Wiseman took himself off the team, met the challenge. All of these nuggets suggest to me that he is in the tier of quality of players available at 9 in this draft AND since we as fans are not privy to insider info (whether teams are willing to trade up or not, for instance) and since NO MOCK HAS EVER BEEN RIGHT and since more playoff contending teams will be looking for playable mobile defensive Bigs to match with the few dominant skilled 4-5's in the league, I'm saying I have no problem with the selection at 9. Seems a fair bet.

Unless you think your favorite guy Rui will play too well for him to earn any minutes on court.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1515 » by nate33 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:01 pm

doclinkin wrote:Among qualifying freshmen in the last 10 years (10 games, 15 min per game minumum) Precious Achiuwa ranks in the top 10 in

Defensive points allowed per 100 possessions.

and Defensive Win shares

In large part because his rebounding % and def rebounding % are in the top 15 of these freshmen over the last 10 years, while his blocks and steals %'s are also in the top 30~50 of these players.

Granted, he's older than most freshmen. But if you include all players of whatever year he still ranks _just_ outside the top 20 in Points allowed per 100 possessions at #2 -- one notch behind Nerlens Noel, and a dozen or so places before Draymond Green's senior year.

So. There are numbers that suggest he's a solid defensive player. And many of the better defenders over the past 10 years show up on those lists. Especially Defensive Win shares (Unibrow, Marcus Smart, Tristan Thompson, Kawhi, Mo Bamba, Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter...)

As for Playign time. On this squad he would play for the same reasons Onyeka would play: nobody on this squad is doing what he does. We need a mobile rebounder who challenges shots and takes responsibility to make up for others mistakes. He lets Bryant try that developing face up game on offense. Covers for Bertans' hemophiliac boards work (bruises are dangerous). And does what Rui does not seem to have the instinct to do: rebound misses, force deflections, swat shots. He may clog the middle on offense and make it harder for John etc to find room, but he lets you play your outside shooters instead of needing to bulk up underneath. Defensively he stops the bleeding.

Precious was on one of the top 5 defensive teams in the NCAA this year, as the lynchpin player defending the basket. He rose to seize this role after Wiseman took himself off the team, met the challenge. All of these nuggets suggest to me that he is in the tier of quality of players available at 9 in this draft AND since we as fans are not privy to insider info (whether teams are willing to trade up or not, for instance) and since NO MOCK HAS EVER BEEN RIGHT and since more playoff contending teams will be looking for playable mobile defensive Bigs to match with the few dominant skilled 4-5's in the league, I'm saying I have no problem with the selection at 9. Seems a fair bet.

Unless you think your favorite guy Rui will play too well for him to earn any minutes on court.

That's an interesting stat screen, but I wouldn't interpret it in the same way. Looking at DRtg, and including Freshmen and Sophomores (to account for his age), he ranks 5th, which is real impressive. But then I look at the names on the list and I'm a lot less impressed. Here are the top 50. I bolded the guys who actually stuck around in the league.

Karl-Anthony Towns
Zach Collins
Anthony Davis
Nathan Mensah
Nerlens Noel
Precious Achiuwa
Dakari Johnson
Tony Mitchell
Chris Singleton
Thomas Walkup
Briante Weber
DeMarcus Cousins
Jacob Parker
Hassan Martin
Jyles Smith
Colin Nickerson
Chinanu Onuaku
Andre Roberson
Malcolm Miller
Marcus Santos-Silva
Mike Moser
Richard Solomon
Vince Williams
Otto Porter
Briante Weber
Derek Culver
Willie Reed
Tacko Fall
Anton Grady
Oscar Tshiebwe
Kerron Johnson
Gorgui Dieng
Calvin Solomon
Leonard Washington
Hassan Whiteside
Jared Sullinger

Markus Kennedy
Mason Plumlee
Russ Smith
John Henson
Jyles Smith
Dre Wills
Kawhi Leonard
Trey Lyles
Grayson Murphy
Myles Turner
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Marcus Smart
Michale Kyser
Justin Bean

First of all, that's not exactly a great hit rate. Take out the Kentucky studs at the very top of the list and it's not an impressive list at all. And many of the guys that I bolded stuck around in the league because of their offense, not their defense, and I'm sure we agree that if Achiuwa is going to stick around, it'll be because of D.

This metric really only produced 10 guys who could make it in the league on the strength of their defense alone: Collins, Davis, Noel, Roberson, Dieng, Whiteside, Plumlee, Leonard, Turner and Smart. So basically, we are talking about a guy, if everything breaks right, might be a Zach Collins, Gorgui Dieng or Mason Plumlee. But chances are high that he's probably just a Tony Mitchell or Chris Singleton.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1516 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:29 pm

Good stuff, doc.

I do find a few strange problems in the stat results -- if I re-sort by total win shares, I should see Jahlil Okafor at #4 -- but he doesn't show up at all. No matter what column I sort on. In fact, I should see Okafor in the top 1/3 of the chart in defensive win shares. .2 worse than Precious.

Looking a bit further, I see that Karl Anthony Towns is #4 in DWS (3 above Precious) & #1 in fewest points allowed (4 above Precious). Is KAT a better defender than Precious?

Precious is one of the top 9 guys in DWS; the other 8 are in the league. 4 of those 8 have underperformed their draft pick positions -- Aaron Gordon, Stanley Johnson, Jared Sullinger, & Terrence Jones. Thoughts on that?

OTOH, as you say, there are lots of good defenders near the top of the columns. These 2 sorts do support Precious being a very good defender, which is what I asked for. Thanks!
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1517 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:37 pm

nate33 wrote:(see list above)

First of all, that's not exactly a great hit rate. Take out the Kentucky studs at the very top of the list and it's not an impressive list at all. And many of the guys that I bolded stuck around in the league because of their offense, not their defense, and I'm sure we agree that if Achiuwa is going to stick around, it'll be because of D.

This metric really only produced 10 guys who could make it in the league on the strength of their defense alone: Collins, Davis, Noel, Roberson, Dieng, Whiteside, Plumlee, Leonard, Turner and Smart. So basically, we are talking about a guy, if everything breaks right, might be a Zach Collins, Gorgui Dieng or Mason Plumlee. But chances are high that he's probably just a Tony Mitchell or Chris Singleton.

Good points, nate. But... if you go back & look at all the per 40 minute numbers for Tony Mitchell & Chris Singleton, they are not anywhere near as good as Achiuwa's overall numbers, so I don't think we can predict their low level of overall results in the league for him.

I'm going to do a little more digging on this list & try to find a few guys who have similar numbers to PA overall. Might be a good comparison out there. Maybe even a few.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1518 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:15 pm

nate33 wrote:First of all, that's not exactly a great hit rate. Take out the Kentucky studs at the very top of the list and it's not an impressive list at all. And many of the guys that I bolded stuck around in the league because of their offense, not their defense, and I'm sure we agree that if Achiuwa is going to stick around, it'll be because of D.

This metric really only produced 10 guys who could make it in the league on the strength of their defense alone: Collins, Davis, Noel, Roberson, Dieng, Whiteside, Plumlee, Leonard, Turner and Smart. So basically, we are talking about a guy, if everything breaks right, might be a Zach Collins, Gorgui Dieng or Mason Plumlee. But chances are high that he's probably just a Tony Mitchell or Chris Singleton.



There's noise in your list considering that a few are currently still playing NCAA ball (notably West Virginia's two bigs Tshiebwe and Culver). I don't come to the same conclusion you do based on who is on the list of NBA defenders, my point is that defense is notoriously difficult to quantify, but if we search for players who we know turned into solid NBA defenders we can look for players who show up on the same list. The question was, is there any evidence that Precious will turn into a solid NBA defender. Still unknown but he shows up in the numbers near some good company. In a few different metrics. I cited 2, but in raw defensive rebounding in that selection of players he is just ahead of Pascal Siakam, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Nikola Vucevic. And he is rebounding by athleticism instinct and effort, not by overwhelming size (we note that he is 6'9" and 220, he's not Demarcus Cousins, who is further behind him on the list).

I commonly look at the kenpom ratings to see what teams are defending well. Then peek at who their personnel is and whether they are running NBA schemes.

Virginia is always high on the list. West Virginia ("Press Virginia") as well -- though this year they are relying on their hefty front court more than all out back court pressure. Those are scheme effect teams. Though Virginia does turn out good NBA defenders. (Mike Scott, Malcom Brogdon).

Memphis jumped to the top under Penny Hardaway. His guards do pressure the ball well, but when they get beat they had Achiuwa behind them. Looking at their numbers deeper, Precious seemed to be the key this year. Especially after Wiseman declared himself ineligible. Achiuwa picked up the load, admirably.

In the NBA defense-heavy players tend to get less playing time. The number that corresponds to both PT and contract earnings is points. Not efficient scoring, not points per shot, simply points scored. Yes Achiuwa will likely suffer some in that metric. However, the metagame is changing. Yes, he does not qualify as a 'skilled 2-way big' (Davis, Jokic, Bam, LeBJ even) those are the real unicorns, but teams do need playable defensive bigs to counter those guys. We especially need that player. If he allows the guys we do have to play to their strengths (chiefly Bryant, highly efficient scorer, decent rebounder in his area, willing shot blocker if he can stay close to the bucket. But not mobile enough to chase outside when teams go small. Can we stay big with Achiuwa doing the mobile defense. And can he also make Bertans playable when we need scoring but don't want to lose points on D?).

On offense/defensive switches late in games we have no one to turn to on that side of the ball. He will get the PT to improve. The rest is up to work ethic and attitude etc. And that point I have little ability to research and address. If the scouts and phone calls and behind the scenes investigation tells the front office that this is a competitive and hard working kid, then I am okay with it. The raw materials are there. But yeah, he is not a complete player at this point. At #9 in this draft, who is?

As for upside and potential, here is is in high school over the top of Bol Bol



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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1519 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:36 pm

Incidentally Chris Singleton went on to beast in Europe. It's cool to see him doing well. I liked his game in college.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1520 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:39 pm

All that said. Vernon Carey does pop up as a top qualifier in a number of my searches for productive freshmen. Offense and defense combined. So either he is in fact a sleeper or none of these numbers mean anything at all :clown:

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