nate33 wrote:First of all, that's not exactly a great hit rate. Take out the Kentucky studs at the very top of the list and it's not an impressive list at all. And many of the guys that I bolded stuck around in the league because of their offense, not their defense, and I'm sure we agree that if Achiuwa is going to stick around, it'll be because of D.
This metric really only produced 10 guys who could make it in the league on the strength of their defense alone: Collins, Davis, Noel, Roberson, Dieng, Whiteside, Plumlee, Leonard, Turner and Smart. So basically, we are talking about a guy, if everything breaks right, might be a Zach Collins, Gorgui Dieng or Mason Plumlee. But chances are high that he's probably just a Tony Mitchell or Chris Singleton.
There's noise in your list considering that a few are currently still playing NCAA ball (notably West Virginia's two bigs Tshiebwe and Culver). I don't come to the same conclusion you do based on who is on the list of NBA defenders, my point is that defense is notoriously difficult to quantify, but if we search for players who we know turned into solid NBA defenders we can look for players who show up on the same list. The question was, is there any evidence that Precious will turn into a solid NBA defender. Still unknown but he shows up in the numbers near some good company. In a few different metrics. I cited 2, but in raw
defensive rebounding in that selection of players he is just ahead of Pascal Siakam, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis, Nikola Vucevic. And he is rebounding by athleticism instinct and effort, not by overwhelming size (we note that he is 6'9" and 220, he's not Demarcus Cousins, who is further behind him on the list).
I commonly look at the kenpom ratings to see
what teams are defending well. Then peek at who their personnel is and whether they are running NBA schemes.
Virginia is always high on the list. West Virginia ("Press Virginia") as well -- though this year they are relying on their hefty front court more than all out back court pressure. Those are scheme effect teams. Though Virginia does turn out good NBA defenders. (Mike Scott, Malcom Brogdon).
Memphis jumped to the top under Penny Hardaway. His guards do pressure the ball well, but when they get beat they had Achiuwa behind them. Looking at their numbers deeper, Precious seemed to be the key this year. Especially after Wiseman declared himself ineligible. Achiuwa picked up the load, admirably.
In the NBA defense-heavy players tend to get less playing time. The number that corresponds to both PT and contract earnings is points. Not efficient scoring, not points per shot, simply points scored. Yes Achiuwa will likely suffer some in that metric. However, the metagame is changing. Yes, he does not qualify as a 'skilled 2-way big' (Davis, Jokic, Bam, LeBJ even) those are the real unicorns, but teams do need playable defensive bigs to counter those guys. We especially need that player. If he allows the guys we do have to play to their strengths (chiefly Bryant, highly efficient scorer, decent rebounder in his area, willing shot blocker if he can stay close to the bucket. But not mobile enough to chase outside when teams go small. Can we stay big with Achiuwa doing the mobile defense. And can he also make Bertans playable when we need scoring but don't want to lose points on D?).
On offense/defensive switches late in games we have no one to turn to on that side of the ball. He will get the PT to improve. The rest is up to work ethic and attitude etc. And that point I have little ability to research and address. If the scouts and phone calls and behind the scenes investigation tells the front office that this is a competitive and hard working kid, then I am okay with it. The raw materials are there. But yeah, he is not a complete player at this point. At #9 in this draft, who is?
As for upside and potential, here is is in high school over the top of Bol Bol
And with a bit of a handle: