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2020 Draft

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1521 » by payitforward » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:22 pm

Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. The kid had a tremendous Freshman season. & "kid" is exactly what he is. 19.5 years old.

After thinking about it a lot, if I could trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #30, I'd do it & pick Carey at #30. In truth, however, it seems to me that there will be a team that wises up, & we'll see him go in the 20's.

A great idea would be to combine nate's sign & trade with Dallas with an element that trades our #9 & gets their #s18 & 31 picks -- haven't thought about how to do that yet.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1522 » by Ruzious » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:25 pm

payitforward wrote:Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. The kid had a tremendous Freshman season. & "kid" is exactly what he is. 19.5 years old.

After thinking about it a lot, if I could trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #30, I'd do it & pick Carey at #30. In truth, however, it seems to me that there will be a team that wises up, & we'll see him go in the 20's.

A great idea would be to combine nate's sign & trade with Dallas with an element that trades our #9 & gets their #s18 & 31 picks -- haven't thought about how to do that yet.

I was reading one of the "internet scouts" who's very down on him saying he's too small - because he's "only" 6'10 and only has a 7'1 wingspan and only a 9'0.5 standing reach. I mean, the guy's over 270 lbs. And in this era of smallball, it's especially nuts to call him small. Do I think he's a good fit for the Wiz? No, I think he'd be a bad fit because I think he'll have roughly the same weaknesses that Bryant has. And fit does matter. But do I think he'll be a good NBA player? Yes.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1523 » by Dat2U » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:03 pm

payitforward wrote:Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. The kid had a tremendous Freshman season. & "kid" is exactly what he is. 19.5 years old.

After thinking about it a lot, if I could trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #30, I'd do it & pick Carey at #30. In truth, however, it seems to me that there will be a team that wises up, & we'll see him go in the 20's.

A great idea would be to combine nate's sign & trade with Dallas with an element that trades our #9 & gets their #s18 & 31 picks -- haven't thought about how to do that yet.


Carey at 30 is fine. Like I said he's a top 20 ish prospect. Maybe he pushes Wagner out the picture. But does it address improving the defense at the C position? Not at all.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1524 » by Dat2U » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:04 pm

Ruzious wrote:
payitforward wrote:Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. The kid had a tremendous Freshman season. & "kid" is exactly what he is. 19.5 years old.

After thinking about it a lot, if I could trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #30, I'd do it & pick Carey at #30. In truth, however, it seems to me that there will be a team that wises up, & we'll see him go in the 20's.

A great idea would be to combine nate's sign & trade with Dallas with an element that trades our #9 & gets their #s18 & 31 picks -- haven't thought about how to do that yet.

I was reading one of the "internet scouts" who's very down on him saying he's too small - because he's "only" 6'10 and only has a 7'1 wingspan and only a 9'0.5 standing reach. I mean, the guy's over 270 lbs. And in this era of smallball, it's especially nuts to call him small. Do I think he's a good fit for the Wiz? No, I think he'd be a bad fit because I think he'll have roughly the same weaknesses that Bryant has. And fit does matter. But do I think he'll be a good NBA player? Yes.


Exactly where I stand on him. Good player. Not an ideal fit.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1525 » by doclinkin » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:48 pm

Dat2U wrote:Carey at 30 is fine. Like I said he's a top 20 ish prospect. Maybe he pushes Wagner out the picture. But does it address improving the defense at the C position? Not at all.


I disagree on 2 fronts. First: pushing Wagner out of the picture with a back up who can even approximate what Bryant does gives us depth at the position. Rebounding. Muscle. Fouls. Refs have tired of Wagners foul and flop game.

However. Defensively I see him as an upgrade to Bryant. He was a remarkable defensive rebounder, which suggests his understanding of spacing and angles and timing are solid. While he may seem slow footed, he's got good feet, pulling out spin moves and handling in traffic, and if slow: many of his steals came from anticipation. Duke doesn't let in many stupid players. Good defense at the highest levels is about being where you need to be in advance and knowing where the offense is likely coming from then cutting down angles via anticipation. Marc Gasol was a good defender his whole career. He's never been quick. Yes we will still need upgrade in mobile defenders, but we need an upgrade in mindset, especially from the rear line anchor defnder, and Carey clearly has the defensive mindset. Remarkable to me in a player as young as he is.

Also, odd to say but he's a left hander. They tend to perceive the world differently and play differently. They take a creative approach to problem solving. I'd suggest his upside may prove different than expected. He may take a different path to get there, but the results may prove surprising. Also on offense, Wall loves that right to left pass. If he has a left handed finisher running the lane there will be easy buckets available.

At 30 I think he'd be a steal no question.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1526 » by Dat2U » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:22 pm

If Bryant is dealt then Carey becomes more appealing to me. Duke has produced some poor defending bigs before and Carey's instincts are lacking on that end. He is not as heavy footed as Bryant is so I would agree there's potential for improvement.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1527 » by queridiculo » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:35 am

payitforward wrote:Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. The kid had a tremendous Freshman season. & "kid" is exactly what he is. 19.5 years old.

After thinking about it a lot, if I could trade our #9 to Boston for their #14 & #30, I'd do it & pick Carey at #30. In truth, however, it seems to me that there will be a team that wises up, & we'll see him go in the 20's.

A great idea would be to combine nate's sign & trade with Dallas with an element that trades our #9 & gets their #s18 & 31 picks -- haven't thought about how to do that yet.


The thing with Carey is, his game screams Andre Drummond.

That's not a bad thing.

I love Drummond, and in a different era people would be having different conversations about him and his game, but the fact is that his skillset is not something people are after any more.

Achiuwa, Jalen Smith and Tillman are all going to go before Carey, and rightfully so, they are a better fit for the game that is being played today.

I feel like the problem with Carey is going to be that everything that he does well on one end isn't going to be much help because he's not going to be able to guard anybody.

I'd rather trade up and hope to land one of Wiseman or Okongwu, or stay put and draft Achiuwa.

There aren't any bigs that bring what the Wizards need to the table after those three.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1528 » by pcbothwel » Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:09 pm

Another thing about Carey. Im sure he is probably a great kid, but I have heard he has trouble with weight and it could get much worse. Look at his family.
His dad played LT/RT for the Dolphins for 6-7 years where he routinely played at 340+ LBS and had weight issues.
His younger brother is a mammoth at 13, listed at 6'7 260 lbs and carries a ton of body fat.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1529 » by payitforward » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:10 am

queridiculo wrote:
payitforward wrote:Vernon Carey dropping to R2 is an incredible joke. ...

The thing with Carey is, his game screams Andre Drummond....

What? How? They are not similar in any way.

Have you looked at how they played in college? Virtually zero significant similarity between their numbers!
queridiculo wrote:...I love Drummond, ... but the fact is that his skillset is not something people are after any more....

Not that this is relevant to the main point here, but have you noticed that Andre Drummond is making $29m this year? If we picked a guy in R2 who wound up commanding a salary like Drummond's in an open market, do you think that would indicate we'd made a bad pick? Down in R2? Now... that said, your point doesn't stick anyway given that they are utterly unlike each other as players.
queridiculo wrote:...Achiuwa, Jalen Smith and Tillman are all going to go before Carey, and rightfully so, they are a better fit for the game that is being played today...

Relevance? Read the sentence to which you appear to be trying to respond: it's about Vernon Carey dropping to R2. In any case, since these three players are quite different from one another, I can't see how you can refer to them as a group that "fits" anything.
queridiculo wrote:I feel like the problem with Carey is going to be that everything that he does well on one end isn't going to be much help because he's not going to be able to guard anybody....

You "feel like?" What does it feel like to feel like you feel like that -- do you feel like you could describe it? :)

Come on, man.... Per 40 minutes, Carey got just under 10 defensive rebounds (Drummond=5.86). Do you feel like he won't be able to rebound on the defensive end in the NBA?

As a Freshman, Carey & Precious Achiuwa each blocked 2.5 shots per 40 minutes. Do you feel like Precious can, but Carey can't, block shots at a reasonable rate in the league?

queridiculo wrote:I'd rather trade up and hope to land one of Wiseman or Okongwu, or stay put and draft Achiuwa...

"Rather" than what? In particular rather than what that has anything at all to do with Vernon Carey in R2?

As to trading up for Wiseman, that would be like trying to get rich at the track. It can certainly work out. But, no one would describe it as a plan!

As to Okongwu, we all like him, but saying we should "trade up and hope to land" him...? Trade what? Trade how far up?

No blame, but I don't "feel like" you were at your best in this post!

queridiculo wrote:...There aren't any bigs that bring what the Wizards need to the table after those three.

I "feel like" ex cathedra statements by fans aren't exactly to be relied on. Not mine, for example. Not yours either. Here's one: tyhere'll be 2 or more bigs other than the 3 you mention, who wind up having solid NBA careers -- or better.

As to "what the Wizards need," what don't the Wizards need? We're 57-97 in the last 2 seasons. What we need is good players. Guys who are underrated -- like Vernon Carey Jr. (tho he's only one example) -- make it easier to get good players late in the draft.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1530 » by payitforward » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:14 am

Dat2U wrote:If Bryant is dealt then Carey becomes more appealing to me. Duke has produced some poor defending bigs before and Carey's instincts are lacking on that end. He is not as heavy footed as Bryant is so I would agree there's potential for improvement.

To put that another way, if we get Carey somewhere down the draft lane, it makes it possible to trade Bryant -- who will bring a lot more than it cost us to acquire Carey. E.g. as I've suggested, it might make it possible to use Bryant (plus...) to acquire Jarrett Allen.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1531 » by Shoe » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:48 pm

So everyone and payitfoward : what do we think Tommy Sheppard and the front office will do? Instead of best possible picks and trade downs.
I think Avdija would be who he wanted but will be gone. I think his goal is to compete now so he could target junior Saddiq Bey or on the flip side swing for the international fences taking Poku. TS and Beal have repeatedly said they think Rui is a 3 so in their projection that opens up a front court spot next to Bryant.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1532 » by doclinkin » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:03 pm

Shoe wrote:So everyone and payitfoward : what do we think Tommy Sheppard and the front office will do? Instead of best possible picks and trade downs.
I think Avdija would be who he wanted but will be gone. I think his goal is to compete now so he could target junior Saddiq Bey or on the flip side swing for the international fences taking Poku. TS and Beal have repeatedly said they think Rui is a 3 so in their projection that opens up a front court spot next to Bryant.


I think they will try for a trade. Trade up if they can (for Okongwu) but trade their #9 for a package of a player plus a later pick if not. Tommy talked about this draft looking for a defensive Big, improving defense generally.

“We’re not hiding any state secrets,” he said when asked what types of players the Wizards might prioritize adding after the season. “We’re gonna improve defensively, and a lot of that is by repetition and continuity. We certainly look inside. Maybe we can get some more physicality there and get some more help out on the wings. There’s a lot of need that comes, but sometimes those needs get met by just staying patient (with your) players.”

The Wizards rank last in the NBA in points allowed per possession, though they’ve been more frugal since early February.

...

“Offensively, we’ve always been able to score. It’s almost interchangeable. … But defensively, it’s hard to keep rolling in new guys all the time.”

Sheppard did, however, point out a specific kind of player he believes could help.

“I think we need a rim protector,” he said. “I think that helps a lot defensively to keep people out of the paint.”


And the first response he had after the Wiz stayed at 9 in the lotto was to say maybe they can package some picks and move up.

That's either Wiseman or Okongwu. If they can't trade (up, or for a defenisve Big) then they will likely take Vassell since he both defends on the wing and hits outside shots which their analytics office seems to fetishize. And he has said they will probably try to buy a pick later on.

But if your'e talking interior physicality and rim protection,
Wiseman, Okongwu, Achiuwa, are all in play.
Maybe Stewart, Tillman, Carey later down.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1533 » by Frichuela » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:42 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Shoe wrote:So everyone and payitfoward : what do we think Tommy Sheppard and the front office will do? Instead of best possible picks and trade downs.
I think Avdija would be who he wanted but will be gone. I think his goal is to compete now so he could target junior Saddiq Bey or on the flip side swing for the international fences taking Poku. TS and Beal have repeatedly said they think Rui is a 3 so in their projection that opens up a front court spot next to Bryant.


I think they will try for a trade. Trade up if they can (for Okongwu) but trade their #9 for a package of a player plus a later pick if not. Tommy talked about this draft looking for a defensive Big, improving defense generally.

“We’re not hiding any state secrets,” he said when asked what types of players the Wizards might prioritize adding after the season. “We’re gonna improve defensively, and a lot of that is by repetition and continuity. We certainly look inside. Maybe we can get some more physicality there and get some more help out on the wings. There’s a lot of need that comes, but sometimes those needs get met by just staying patient (with your) players.”

The Wizards rank last in the NBA in points allowed per possession, though they’ve been more frugal since early February.

...

“Offensively, we’ve always been able to score. It’s almost interchangeable. … But defensively, it’s hard to keep rolling in new guys all the time.”

Sheppard did, however, point out a specific kind of player he believes could help.

“I think we need a rim protector,” he said. “I think that helps a lot defensively to keep people out of the paint.”


And the first response he had after the Wiz stayed at 9 in the lotto was to say maybe they can package some picks and move up.

That's either Wiseman or Okongwu. If they can't trade (up, or for a defenisve Big) then they will likely take Vassell since he both defends on the wing and hits outside shots which their analytics office seems to fetishize. And he has said they will probably try to buy a pick later on.

But if your'e talking interior physicality and rim protection,
Wiseman, Okongwu, Achiuwa, are all in play.
Maybe Stewart, Tillman, Carey later down.


Yes, Doc is in the money.

Assuming we can take Tommy at face value (i.e. about what he had said in public):

Scenario 1: Draft Okongwu at #9. I believe the odds of landing Big O at #9 may be higher than what some think.
Scenario 2: Draft Vassell at #9. And then hope we can get a center/big PF at #37: Carey? Oturo? Azubuike? Reed? Perry? FYI- I believe Stewart and Tillman will be selected in the (late) first round.
Scenario 3a: Trade up for Okongwu or (even) Wiseman. But here, what can we offer of value in addition to the #37? I would be strongly against trading a 2021 1st rounder.
Scenario 3b: Trade down and draft the best available wing (Vassell, Okoro, Neismith, S Bey) in addition to some veteran help. Possible partners: Sacramento at #12 (e.g. #12+Holmes for #9) or Pelicans (e.g. #13+Hart for #9).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1534 » by nate33 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:49 pm

I seriously doubt the Wizards will trade down. That's just not their MO.

If Okongwu is gone and they are unwilling to pay the asking price to trade up for him, then I expect them to go ahead and draft Vassell or Okoru at #9, and then add a veteran defensive big in free agency. I'd like to see Noel, but I suspect they'll go for a guy like Tristian Thompson. If cost is a factor they might go for a cheaper guy like Taj Gibson who will probably only cost $2-$3M.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1535 » by Shoe » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:14 pm

doclinkin wrote:
Shoe wrote:So everyone and payitfoward : what do we think Tommy Sheppard and the front office will do? Instead of best possible picks and trade downs.
I think Avdija would be who he wanted but will be gone. I think his goal is to compete now so he could target junior Saddiq Bey or on the flip side swing for the international fences taking Poku. TS and Beal have repeatedly said they think Rui is a 3 so in their projection that opens up a front court spot next to Bryant.


I think they will try for a trade. Trade up if they can (for Okongwu) but trade their #9 for a package of a player plus a later pick if not. Tommy talked about this draft looking for a defensive Big, improving defense generally.

“We’re not hiding any state secrets,” he said when asked what types of players the Wizards might prioritize adding after the season. “We’re gonna improve defensively, and a lot of that is by repetition and continuity. We certainly look inside. Maybe we can get some more physicality there and get some more help out on the wings. There’s a lot of need that comes, but sometimes those needs get met by just staying patient (with your) players.”

The Wizards rank last in the NBA in points allowed per possession, though they’ve been more frugal since early February.

...

“Offensively, we’ve always been able to score. It’s almost interchangeable. … But defensively, it’s hard to keep rolling in new guys all the time.”

Sheppard did, however, point out a specific kind of player he believes could help.

“I think we need a rim protector,” he said. “I think that helps a lot defensively to keep people out of the paint.”


And the first response he had after the Wiz stayed at 9 in the lotto was to say maybe they can package some picks and move up.

That's either Wiseman or Okongwu. If they can't trade (up, or for a defenisve Big) then they will likely take Vassell since he both defends on the wing and hits outside shots which their analytics office seems to fetishize. And he has said they will probably try to buy a pick later on.

But if your'e talking interior physicality and rim protection,
Wiseman, Okongwu, Achiuwa, are all in play.
Maybe Stewart, Tillman, Carey later down.


Good find about rim protection. Rui is obviously not a rim protector. Bryant you hope develops a bit there. So all those guys plus I would add Jalen Smith as a potential option. The question is if Okongwu is gone would TS go for Achiuwa/Smith or take the higher ranked prospect Vassell/Okoro.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1536 » by pcbothwel » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:19 pm

nate33 wrote:I seriously doubt the Wizards will trade down. That's just not their MO.

If Okongwu is gone and they are unwilling to pay the asking price to trade up for him, then I expect them to go ahead and draft Vassell or Okoru at #9, and then add a veteran defensive big in free agency. I'd like to see Noel, but I suspect they'll go for a guy like Tristian Thompson. If cost is a factor they might go for a cheaper guy like Taj Gibson who will probably only cost $2-$3M.


Agreed. I think its pretty simple. Okongwu, Vassell/Okoro.
1/2 of them will be there, they are the BPA, and they all fit our needs.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1537 » by doclinkin » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:07 pm

nate33 wrote:I seriously doubt the Wizards will trade down. That's just not their MO.

If Okongwu is gone and they are unwilling to pay the asking price to trade up for him, then I expect them to go ahead and draft Vassell or Okoru at #9, and then add a veteran defensive big in free agency.


Tommy still thinks like a scout. He may be interested in tried and true players at an affordable price, but I fully expect he has favorites on the squads of other teams who he researched coming up. BRef is behind a pay wall now, but I would search for players with fewer than 3 years experience playing efficiently behind established all-stars at the same position, looking for those diamonds in the rough. Looking for bigs with good rates on steals, defensive boards, assists, even more so than blocks.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1538 » by doclinkin » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:17 pm

That said, as far as diamond in the rough type players, we have one on the squad. As Isaac Bonga adds a bit of muscle over the offseason and next few years, I think we will see an upgrade in play at the tweener wing-forward position.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1539 » by nate33 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:18 pm

doclinkin wrote:
nate33 wrote:I seriously doubt the Wizards will trade down. That's just not their MO.

If Okongwu is gone and they are unwilling to pay the asking price to trade up for him, then I expect them to go ahead and draft Vassell or Okoru at #9, and then add a veteran defensive big in free agency.


Tommy still thinks like a scout. He may be interested in tried and true players at an affordable price, but I fully expect he has favorites on the squads of other teams who he researched coming up. BRef is behind a pay wall now, but I would search for players with fewer than 3 years experience playing efficiently behind established all-stars at the same position, looking for those diamonds in the rough. Looking for bigs with good rates on steals, defensive boards, assists, even more so than blocks.

Just skimming draft picks in 2016 and 2017, and Tony Bradley looks interesting. He's the backup center for Utah and has monstrous per minute numbers (15.5 points, 14.5 boards, 1.8 blocks per 36 on a TS% of .681) while playing just 685 total minutes behind Gobert. He still has one year left on his rookie deal though, so a trade would be necessary.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1540 » by nate33 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:25 pm

doclinkin wrote:That said, as far as diamond in the rough type players, we have one on the squad. As Isaac Bonga adds a bit of muscle over the offseason and next few years, I think we will see an upgrade in play at the tweener wing-forward position.

Bonga's on/off numbers are really impressive.

Bertans also has great on/off numbers, but part of that was due to him playing on a second unit that Brooks tended to stack in an effort to outplay the opposition's second unit. Bonga, on the other hand, put up very good on/off numbers while on the starting team going against the opposition's best players. Indeed, he was the only player on the roster with a non-negative on-court +/-.

On/off numbers are a bit noisy so I don't want to read too much into it, but they really do suggest that Bonga makes a real difference out there, presumably on the defensive end.

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