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payitforward wrote:

Ruzious wrote:

payitforward wrote:I'd be grateful for some help in understanding why both you guys are so high on Saddiq Bey.

Don't get me wrong -- I have no reason to be particularly negative about him -- not at all -- & looking at highlight reels, I see a bunch of obviously positive stuff. Above all, he hits the 3 with range, & his release is extremely quick. He also has a strong handle & can finish with either hand. He's very crafty & imaginative, slick, posting up.

But, some of his numbers really give me pause. He's a pretty poor rebounder, & he doesn't seem to pass well. Low on steals.

Mostly what you see in highlights is him making 3's & that he's a good 1-on-1 player (I wonder if the latter will translate at the next level).

Now... I haven't taken a really deep dive here! & I didn't get to see 'Nova play. So... am I missing important stuff? If so, what...?

Fits the 3 & D role perfectly for today's NBA. The importance of spacing is still underestimated by some people. How many 3's are particularly good rebounders? In today's game, 3's are asked first to get up and down court quickly in transition - that gives them fewer opportunities to rebound. I'd like it if he got more steals, but from what I've seen, he's a good defender - with really good size - at 6'8 220ish - and that size allows him to switch defensively on all kinds of players. Another thing I like about him - he was improving as the season wore on. And look around the NBA, and there really aren't a lot of high quality 3's that make a high volume of 3's at a good percentage.

Helpful, thanks.

...Independent of Bey & of your comments on him specifically, I want to respond to this...

Ruzious wrote:How many 3's are particularly good rebounders? In today's game, 3's are asked first to get up and down court quickly in transition - that gives them fewer opportunities to rebound....

...because this kind of thing is starting to drive me nuts.

First we get I_Like_Dirt saying that 4s (i.e. like Rui) don't have to rebound, now 3s aren't good rebounders. &, of course, the days of the big-rebounding Center are long gone. Not to mention that if someone points out that a guy is a good rebounder for a guard the response is almost always that it doesn't mean anything.

Games have no fewer rebounds than they ever did. Teams still only put 5 guys on the court. A rebound has the same value it has always had (until the basic rules of the game change, that value can't change). Identical. Permanent. Unchanging.

To the exact degree that someone at a position is less of a rebounder than someone else at the same position he is simply less good at the position. Other things may make him better of course, but he'll have to overcome the deficit of being less good at rebounding the ball for those other things to make him the better player. Period.

What is this a list of: Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls?

Those are the 9 worst defensive rebounding teams in the league this season. Combined record 197-379.

Pif Pif Pif, now you're saying defensive rebounding is the end all and be all? Didn't you used to say defensive rebounds are basically nothing compared to offensive rebounds? The answer is yes, you did. Why the change? Because if fits your current argument?

I know you're not going to listen, but players that go for offensive rebounds often hurt their team because if they miss - their man is going downcourt for an easy fast-break dunk. When small forwards go for defensive rebounds, that indicates a problem with the 4 and 5, because the 3 could be running downcourt to get fastbreak points. I'd rather see Troy Brown, Jr running downcourt for a layup than having to help out Rui and Bertans on the defensive boards. A guy like Westbrook trying to get rebounding stats for himself is going to hurt his team just as much as he helps it.

Here's an article that I pretty much agree with. https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/04/26/saddiq-bey-2020-nba-draft-propsect-breakdown/

Ruzious wrote:

payitforward wrote:

Ruzious wrote:Fits the 3 & D role perfectly for today's NBA. The importance of spacing is still underestimated by some people. How many 3's are particularly good rebounders? In today's game, 3's are asked first to get up and down court quickly in transition - that gives them fewer opportunities to rebound. I'd like it if he got more steals, but from what I've seen, he's a good defender - with really good size - at 6'8 220ish - and that size allows him to switch defensively on all kinds of players. Another thing I like about him - he was improving as the season wore on. And look around the NBA, and there really aren't a lot of high quality 3's that make a high volume of 3's at a good percentage.

Helpful, thanks.

...Independent of Bey & of your comments on him specifically, I want to respond to this...

Ruzious wrote:How many 3's are particularly good rebounders? In today's game, 3's are asked first to get up and down court quickly in transition - that gives them fewer opportunities to rebound....

...because this kind of thing is starting to drive me nuts.

First we get I_Like_Dirt saying that 4s (i.e. like Rui) don't have to rebound, now 3s aren't good rebounders. &, of course, the days of the big-rebounding Center are long gone. Not to mention that if someone points out that a guy is a good rebounder for a guard the response is almost always that it doesn't mean anything.

Games have no fewer rebounds than they ever did. Teams still only put 5 guys on the court. A rebound has the same value it has always had (until the basic rules of the game change, that value can't change). Identical. Permanent. Unchanging.

To the exact degree that someone at a position is less of a rebounder than someone else at the same position he is simply less good at the position. Other things may make him better of course, but he'll have to overcome the deficit of being less good at rebounding the ball for those other things to make him the better player. Period.

What is this a list of: Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls?

Those are the 9 worst defensive rebounding teams in the league this season. Combined record 197-379.

Pif Pif Pif, now you're saying defensive rebounding is the end all and be all? Didn't you used to say defensive rebounds are basically nothing compared to offensive rebounds? The answer is yes, you did. Why the change? Because if fits your current argument?

I know you're not going to listen, but players that go for offensive rebounds often hurt their team because if they miss - their man is going downcourt for an easy fast-break dunk. When small forwards go for defensive rebounds, that indicates a problem with the 4 and 5, because the 3 could be running downcourt to get fastbreak points. I'd rather see Troy Brown, Jr running downcourt for a layup than having to help out Rui and Bertans on the defensive boards. A guy like Westbrook trying to get rebounding stats for himself is going to hurt his team just as much as he helps it.

Good points Ruz.

Tony Bennett’s teams are usually near the bottom of the NCAA in offensive rebounding. Why? Because they don’t try to get them. It’s part of his Money Ball calculation.

His system values limiting fast break points over second chance points.

I'm, uh, pro-rebound, but here's a list of the nine best offensive rebounding teams this season (in order): Knicks, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pelicans, Nets, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, Hornets

Combined record: 300-280 (.517)

It should be noted that this is sorted by ORB% rather than total offensive rebounds (or offensive rebounds per x minutes, etc), because we're not cavemen.

If we do the same for defensive rebounding, i.e. take the teams in positions #22-30 in the league for DRB%, the names are a little different than PIF's initial post: Hornets, Wizards, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Raptors, Pistons, Bulls, Pacers

Combined record: 263-323 (.449)

And, for fun, the nine worst teams in terms of ORB%: Spurs, Thunder, Bucks, Pacers, Warriors, Kings, Jazz, Heat, Raptors

Combined record: 330-249 (.570)

Lastly, the nine best in DRB%: Bucks, Heat, 76ers, Spurs, Magic, Jazz, Knicks, Mavericks, Cavaliers

Combined record: 311-274 (.532)

Perhaps not all rebounds are created equal after all!

Ruzious wrote:Pif Pif Pif, now you're saying defensive rebounding is the end all and be all? Didn't you used to say defensive rebounds are basically nothing compared to offensive rebounds? The answer is yes, you did. Why the change? Because if fits your current argument?

I know you're not going to listen, but players that go for offensive rebounds often hurt their team because if they miss - their man is going downcourt for an easy fast-break dunk. When small forwards go for defensive rebounds, that indicates a problem with the 4 and 5, because the 3 could be running downcourt to get fastbreak points. I'd rather see Troy Brown, Jr running downcourt for a layup than having to help out Rui and Bertans on the defensive boards. A guy like Westbrook trying to get rebounding stats for himself is going to hurt his team just as much as he helps it.

Here's an article that I pretty much agree with. https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/04/26/saddiq-bey-2020-nba-draft-propsect-breakdown/

Yup, players that make a point of going for offensive boards can hurt their teams.

Similarly, players that shoot in volume to pad their 'points-per-game' numbers can hurt their team as well.

But that doesn't change the value of a point. & the former doesn't change the value of a rebound.

A guy robs the corner store; steals $50 bucks, lowers the chances of a calm atmosphere in the neighborhood. But, that doesn't change the value of a dollar.

If you drive a car to get from point a to point b, you can get into an accident & not make it. Therefore, driving a car will not get you from point a to point b.

It would be better for Brown to run down court & score a layup than for him to get a rebound. No kidding, really?

But, before he can do that, someone has to get the rebound. & every player on every team rebounds. This isn't the NFL. & if a player at any position gets one more rebound per 40 minutes, then all other things being equal he has improved his numbers & his contribution to wins. Just as if, say, a guard has one more turnover per 40 minutes, he has gotten a little less good.

As to offensive boards vs. defensive boards, regressions show that "O" is worth @ twice what "D" is worth. Telling a story about naughty Russell Westbrook or streaking-downcourt Troy Brown doesn't change that; it's just telling a story that has been created to make a particular point.

What if Troy Brown somehow misses the lay-up? Is it somehow "bad" for him to get his own offensive rebound & put the ball in the basket?

Accordingly, you win, I give up. I'm not going to have a conversation where you are talking about something different from what I'm talking about; how could that be resolved?

wall_glizzy wrote:I'm, uh, pro-rebound, but here's a list of the nine best offensive rebounding teams this season (in order): Knicks, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pelicans, Nets, Clippers, Lakers, Celtics, Hornets

Combined record: 300-280 (.517)

It should be noted that this is sorted by ORB% rather than total offensive rebounds (or offensive rebounds per x minutes, etc), because we're not cavemen.

If we do the same for defensive rebounding, i.e. take the teams in positions #22-30 in the league for DRB%, the names are a little different than PIF's initial post: Hornets, Wizards, Hawks, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Raptors, Pistons, Bulls, Pacers

Combined record: 263-323 (.449)

And, for fun, the nine worst teams in terms of ORB%: Spurs, Thunder, Bucks, Pacers, Warriors, Kings, Jazz, Heat, Raptors

Combined record: 330-249 (.570)

Lastly, the nine best in DRB%: Bucks, Heat, 76ers, Spurs, Magic, Jazz, Knicks, Mavericks, Cavaliers

Combined record: 311-274 (.532)

Perhaps not all rebounds are created equal after all!

God... more of the same.

1. 5 minutes left in the game. We're down by 15. Brad hits a jumper. "Perhaps not all points are created equal after all!"

2. Since you are not a caveman, please explain how ORB% is derived -- without looking anything up. Be right, ok? Otherwise, you have just said nothing.

3. Let me put that slightly differently: ORB% is a number without meaning.

Basketball is played in what are called "games." Each game lasts 48 minutes. The result of the game is 100% determined by what the players do in those 48 minutes. Rinse & repeat: "the result of two games is 100% determined by what the players do in the 48 minutes of those 2 games."

Rinse & repeat 80 more times: "A basketball season is 82 'games;' any team's record is 100% determined by what the players do in the 48 minutes of those 82 games."

"What the players do" is a simple set of words covering a wide set of activities, each of which each of those players does at least a little bit, often a lot, differently from the others.

Now, here is the important sentence: The effect over time (e.g. a single season) of any single instance of any of those activities (viz. "taking a shot," "committing a turnover," "recording an assist," etc.) on (the chances of) winning or losing can only be determined by doing statistical regressions that allow you to, as it were, back that activity out of the multitude of other activities.

That is how you determine what the cost is of "taking a shot" or "turning the ball over" & what the benefit is of "making a 3-pointer" or "getting an offensive rebound."

That & not anything else. Not a story about Russell Westbrook & not the combined record of some # of teams.

If you will agree to the above, then there is something to talk about, because that, brother, is how it's done. The only way it's done.

If you don't agree to the above... well, what is the point of the conversation: you can say whatever you want, support it however you want, & convince yourself by increasing the number of vigorous nods you make while looking in the mirror.

Sorry to be exercised! Nothing intended beyond ordinary fun & the absolute truth. I.e. "caveman" my as$!

payitforward wrote:Games have no fewer rebounds than they ever did. Teams still only put 5 guys on the court. A rebound has the same value it has always had (until the basic rules of the game change, that value can't change). Identical. Permanent. Unchanging.

To the exact degree that someone at a position is less of a rebounder than someone else at the same position he is simply less good at the position. Other things may make him better of course, but he'll have to overcome the deficit of being less good at rebounding the ball for those other things to make him the better player. Period.

What is this a list of: Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, Chicago Bulls?

Those are the 9 worst defensive rebounding teams in the league this season. Combined record 197-379.

Well, I was mostly just expanding upon (and poking some fun at) your own words, which suggested some kind of absolute linear relationship between defensive rebounding (however you measured it), and defensive rebounding alone, and quality of team. I did this to illustrate the breadth of team strategies and their respective emphases on rebounding; i.e. that in comparing players we cannot simply look at, say, each's total number of offensive rebounds on the season and use that to make absolute judgments about their respective worth. I'm obviously not going to trot out this dataset of nine teams to try and support the claim that, e.g., we should in fact try to acquire the league's worst offensive rebounders to optimize our team.

I don't really know what to do with the extremely condescending* remainder of the post, except to clear up your challenge(?) to the value of evaluating team rebounding on a percentage basis. ORB% (TRB%, DRB%) is a measure of the total number of available offensive boards which a team collects, i.e. the proportion of rebounds resulting from the team's offensive possessions which the team recovers (so, team total ORB divided by the sum of team total ORB and opponent total DRB). It's one of (our very own) Dean Oliver's four factors, a basketball paradigm very close to your own TS% plus possessions math. Looking at things percentage-wise is in no way a challenge to the value of rebounding; rather, it's an attempt to isolate the important stuff - rebounding - from other factors like pace, or - in an incomplete season in which teams have played different numbers of games - total team minutes. If you look, you'll see that this is the third or fourth time I've brought it up in the past couple months.

* I object to the length more than the tone, of course; if you're going to be condescending, do it concisely (like "caveman") !

You can poke fun at me all you like, wall_glizzy, you can even call me a "caveman" -- in fact, I plead guilty! Caveman is moi!

Moreover, I meant to be having fun via the rhetoric but not -- never -- condescending. Sorry if I came off that way!

For sure there's no linear relationship between any one positive stat (defensive rebounds or whatever) & how good a team is. But there is a linear relationship between the sum of those stats, weighted in particular ways, & how good a team is.

That is... there's a linear relationship with some degree of correlation & some level of confidence -- ways of measuring things, as you know, can only be compared one to the other for which gets closest to real results; they aren't a substitute for reality.

Anyway, I'm declaring a moratorium on abstract arguments -- at least from my end, & I hope you will help me live up to it!

This argument is pretty silly. If you get more rebounds respective to your position you are a better player because you are helping your team by securing additional possessions. Rebounding is known to be one of the skills that translates from college to the pros. Did anyone bring up the fact that the wizards are 30th out of 30th in the league in rebounding? Dead last.. By acquiring players who rebound well for their position, we become a better rebounding team and hence a better team.

Yup. It's kinda obvious.

But... how about we let it drop in this thread -- which should be about the draft.

Here is the latest bleacher report mock: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2893073-nba-mock-draft-2020-projections-for-1st-round-top-prospects

They have us passing on Haliburton to take Isaac Okoro. I would hate that -- how about you?

payitforward wrote:Here is the latest bleacher report mock: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2893073-nba-mock-draft-2020-projections-for-1st-round-top-prospects

They have us passing on Haliburton to take Isaac Okoro. I would hate that -- how about you?

No question you take Haliburton there. I have real concerns about his frame, shooting motion, PnR/ISO ability, and overall ceiling... but his production, age, and IQ make him too good to pass on at 9.
Hayes, Okongwu, and Haliburton are the 3 guys I have my eye on if they fall... but I dont think any make it to 9. At that point, Okoro, Maxey, Vassell, Hampton, and Green could all make an argument.

Obviously you want every player to excel at every stat. And obviously you're not going to get that in a mid to late 1st rounder. My point was for small forwards, I wouldn't focus on rebounding as one of the key stats. Kris Middleton's a good example. For his 1st 6 seasons, his high per 36 minutes was 5.3. His high per game in his 3 seasons at Texas A&M was 5.2. Now he's a max salary player. And please don't say that means I'm saying Bey will be as good as Middleton.

Ruzious wrote:Obviously you want every player to excel at every stat. And obviously you're not going to get that in a mid to late 1st rounder. My point was for small forwards, I wouldn't focus on rebounding as one of the key stats. Kris Middleton's a good example. For his 1st 6 seasons, his high per 36 minutes was 5.3. His high per game in his 3 seasons at Texas A&M was 5.2. Now he's a max salary player. And please don't say that means I'm saying Bey will be as good as Middleton.

What? Are you saying that Bey will be as good as Middleton? Which Bey? Which Middleton? Oh wait... I remember! We were talking about... something!

It's exactly as you say, Ruz -- you want any player to excel at every stat. Doesn't happen -- not even at the top of the draft!

So you have to look at all the stats -- & it's the overall level that is the first key, don't you think? That's what takes you to the next step. If the level isn't high overall, you don't bother -- because there are plenty of false positives, guys who post great college stats overall but fail in the NBA -- but there are very (bordering on none), guys who post lousy college stats overall but succeed in the NBA.

That said, your comparison with Middleton is still apropos: looking at both their Sophomore years, if you compare their non-scoring stats per 40 minutes, Middleton has the clear edge (despite turning the ball over more than Bey). Yet, once you add in scoring, it's Saddiq Bey with the overall statistical edge. Not huge, but it's there. & it's against tougher competition as well.

But, it's not apropos in that it gives you a way to compare the players -- not, at least, in the sense that Khris Middleton's success in the NBA gives you any hint about Saddiq Bey. Middleton went in R2!! I don't think anyone had him pegged as a lottery pick -- just a guy who might have a shot to make it in the league.

Moreover, it was not until his 3d year that he became anything like a good player. Or, to put it another way, he grew as a player in the NBA. That can't be evidence about another guy.. Plenty of guys with numbers like Middleton's in college do not develop as he has. If you wouldn't use those guys to justify Bey's weakness as a rebounder, then you can't use Khris Middleton either. Well... you can, obviously; it just doesn't tell us anything we can count on.

Saddiq Bey may turn out to be a terrific player anyway, & to justify a lottery pick. It's not like you are alone in ranking him high! But I am troubled enough by what I see that I wouldn't be able to make him any kind of a target.

OTOH, of course, if I get Tyler Bey with a much less valuable pick... that's something to target precisely b/c the numbers overall are stellar & the asset you use to get him isn't as valuable as a lottery pick.

My first crack at a top 10 list.

1. G LaMelo Ball. Most dynamic player maker in the draft. Legit 6-8. Likely will get his fair share of triple doubles. Got a few kinks to iron out (jumpshot & defensive intensity).

2. G Tyrese Haliburton. Understands pace. Can probably run a team from day 1. Might not be a future star but will be solid.

3. James Wiseman. In such a weak draft he makes it this high on physical tools alone. Reminds me of Andre Drummond who was dog in college and turned out to be solid. Wiseman seems to have a better motor. Destroyed his competitin in the 69 minutes he played last season.

4. Onyeka Okgonwu. I was initially against using the draft to focus on big men due to the over abundance of bigs on rosters and in free agency but the lack of forward depth has forced me to reevaluate drafting bigs. Simply put, there aren't enough wings to push talented Cs out of consideration. Okgonwu is your prototypical rim runner although his IQ and work ethic seem to make him the safest prospect at this point.

5. Obi Toppin. The best and most explosive athlete at F in the draft. I assume due to his rebounding & defensive issues he has to play PF. Will he interesting to see how a Kenyon Martin/Amare style PF fits in today's game.

6. Aaron Nesmith. Best shooter/scorer in the draft? Not much more than a two dribble guy but he's a guy that can curl off screens all day or attack closeouts effectively. His defense will be meh at best.

7. R.J. Hampton. Brandon Jennings pre-injury vibes from him.

8. Devin Vassell. Seems like a ready made role player. High IQ. Good shooter. Low TO guy. Mikail Bridges with a better stroke?

9. Tyler Bey. Fits the mold for the versatile 4/3s of today. In that 6-7/6-8 range with solid strength and long and mobile like a wing. Another ready made role player.

10. Killian Hayes. Skilled shot maker. Worry about the athleticism. Don't buy the Harden comparison. Not sure he's capable of guarding PGs but his playmaking ability will give him a role.

Obviously not high on Anthony Edwards (J.R. Rider), Issac Okoro (Justise Winslow) or Deni Avdija (Jan Vesely).

My sleepers are Jalen Smith, Malachi Flynn, Peyton Pritchard & Xavier Tillman.

Dat2U wrote:My first crack at a top 10 list.

1. G LaMelo Ball. Most dynamic player maker in the draft. Legit 6-8. Likely will get his fair share of triple doubles. Got a few kinks to iron out (jumpshot & defensive intensity).

2. G Tyrese Haliburton. Understands pace. Can probably run a team from day 1. Might not be a future star but will be solid.

3. James Wiseman. In such a weak draft he makes it this high on physical tools alone. Reminds me of Andre Drummond who was dog in college and turned out to be solid. Wiseman seems to have a better motor. Destroyed his competitin in the 69 minutes he played last season.

4. Onyeka Okgonwu. I was initially against using the draft to focus on big men due to the over abundance of bigs on rosters and in free agency but the lack of forward depth has forced me to reevaluate drafting bigs. Simply put, there aren't enough wings to push talented Cs out of consideration. Okgonwu is your prototypical rim runner although his IQ and work ethic seem to make him the safest prospect at this point.

5. Obi Toppin. The best and most explosive athlete at F in the draft. I assume due to his rebounding & defensive issues he has to play PF. Will he interesting to see how a Kenyon Martin/Amare style PF fits in today's game.

6. Aaron Nesmith. Best shooter/scorer in the draft? Not much more than a two dribble guy but he's a guy that can curl off screens all day or attack closeouts effectively. His defense will be meh at best.

7. R.J. Hampton. Brandon Jennings pre-injury vibes from him.

8. Devin Vassell. Seems like a ready made role player. High IQ. Good shooter. Low TO guy. Mikail Bridges with a better stroke?

9. Tyler Bey. Fits the mold for the versatile 4/3s of today. In that 6-7/6-8 range with solid strength and long and mobile like a wing. Another ready made role player.

10. Killian Hayes. Skilled shot maker. Worry about the athleticism. Don't buy the Harden comparison. Not sure he's capable of guarding PGs but his playmaking ability will give him a role.

Obviously not high on Anthony Edwards (J.R. Rider), Issac Okoro (Justise Winslow) or Deni Avdija (Jan Vesely).

My sleepers are Jalen Smith, Malachi Flynn, Peyton Pritchard & Xavier Tillman.

And let the debates begin ... I think that Deni Avdija should be in that group. He is a legit 6'8", very good defensive rebounder, has good handles, good passer, good scorer and hits the 3 well. Definitely take him over Killian Hayes.

With so many players, it really depends on how well their 3 point shot develops, and it's really hard to tell with a lot of them. it's especially important for the wing players - How many upper echelon NBA wing players don't have a good 3? That's a reason why I don't have Ball in my top 10. Still,Dat's post was great - lots of outside the box picks. I'll try to give it a shot later.

Terrific, Dat -- there's good reason to think that Nesmith, Hampton, Vassell & (certainly) Bey will be available -- i.e. we have a good shot at 1 of your top 10 & almost certainly would be able to get 1 of your #s 6-10.

No one will be surprised if I say that my takeaway is... trade down!

Theoretically, the #9 pick should net us 3 of your sleepers plus Bey. Use our R2 on the 4th sleeper, & go home happy. Not that the right trade partners would be easy to find.

Nice to see that Dat has Vassell in the top 10. From the little I saw of him at Fla. St. and what I've read and seen on tape since, I'm feeling like he could be a smart (and safe) pick at 9.

dckingsfan wrote:

Dat2U wrote:My first crack at a top 10 list.

1. G LaMelo Ball. Most dynamic player maker in the draft. Legit 6-8. Likely will get his fair share of triple doubles. Got a few kinks to iron out (jumpshot & defensive intensity).

2. G Tyrese Haliburton. Understands pace. Can probably run a team from day 1. Might not be a future star but will be solid.

3. James Wiseman. In such a weak draft he makes it this high on physical tools alone. Reminds me of Andre Drummond who was dog in college and turned out to be solid. Wiseman seems to have a better motor. Destroyed his competitin in the 69 minutes he played last season.

4. Onyeka Okgonwu. I was initially against using the draft to focus on big men due to the over abundance of bigs on rosters and in free agency but the lack of forward depth has forced me to reevaluate drafting bigs. Simply put, there aren't enough wings to push talented Cs out of consideration. Okgonwu is your prototypical rim runner although his IQ and work ethic seem to make him the safest prospect at this point.

5. Obi Toppin. The best and most explosive athlete at F in the draft. I assume due to his rebounding & defensive issues he has to play PF. Will he interesting to see how a Kenyon Martin/Amare style PF fits in today's game.

6. Aaron Nesmith. Best shooter/scorer in the draft? Not much more than a two dribble guy but he's a guy that can curl off screens all day or attack closeouts effectively. His defense will be meh at best.

7. R.J. Hampton. Brandon Jennings pre-injury vibes from him.

8. Devin Vassell. Seems like a ready made role player. High IQ. Good shooter. Low TO guy. Mikail Bridges with a better stroke?

9. Tyler Bey. Fits the mold for the versatile 4/3s of today. In that 6-7/6-8 range with solid strength and long and mobile like a wing. Another ready made role player.

10. Killian Hayes. Skilled shot maker. Worry about the athleticism. Don't buy the Harden comparison. Not sure he's capable of guarding PGs but his playmaking ability will give him a role.

Obviously not high on Anthony Edwards (J.R. Rider), Issac Okoro (Justise Winslow) or Deni Avdija (Jan Vesely).

My sleepers are Jalen Smith, Malachi Flynn, Peyton Pritchard & Xavier Tillman.

And let the debates begin ... I think that Deni Avdija should be in that group. He is a legit 6'8", very good defensive rebounder, has good handles, good passer, good scorer and hits the 3 well. Definitely take him over Killian Hayes.

There's alot to like about Avdija's game but the man cannot shoot! Nor is he creating shots for himself. How does he score?

payitforward wrote:Terrific, Dat -- there's good reason to think that Nesmith, Hampton, Vassell & (certainly) Bey will be available -- i.e. we have a good shot at 1 of your top 10 & almost certainly would be able to get 1 of your #s 6-10.

No one will be surprised if I say that my takeaway is... trade down!

Theoretically, the #9 pick should net us 3 of your sleepers plus Bey. Use our R2 on the 4th sleeper, & go home happy. Not that the right trade partners would be easy to find.

This year I'm all aboard the trade down choo choo lol.