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2020 Draft

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Shoe
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#981 » by Shoe » Wed Jun 3, 2020 12:30 am

payitforward wrote:
DCZards wrote:
payitforward wrote:& that is why you trade down. Now of course someone will write something like "...but the better players are at the top" -- no, they are not.

Ok...I'll take the bait because I think it's pretty evident that the better players are indeed at (or near) the top of the draft. ...

Let’s take last year’s all-star team where 18 of the 24 all-stars were top 15 picks. ...

This is the usual logic, & on its own terms it makes perfect sense. So, why would I be saying something different?

First of all, recall that I have repeatedly said, "after picks 1-3" -- tho, it's true that I didn't say it in this particular case, I've said it consistently enough that I don't think it's unfair to use it in the following analysis.

Here are the players as you list them -- without those who were taken in the top 3. I've put the rest in order of their pick positions.

Chris Paul -- 4
Russell Westbrook -- 4
Trae Young - 5
Damian Lillard -- 6
Kemba Walker -- 9
Domantas Sabonis -- 11
Donovan Mitchell -- 13
Bam Adebayo --14
Giannis A. -- 15
Kawhi Leonard -- 15
Kyle Lowry -- 24
Rudy Gobert -- 27
Pascal Siakiam --27
Jimmy Butler -- 30
Khris Middleton --39
Nikola Jokic -- 41

Looks a little different, huh? :)

But that's only the beginning. Keep in mind that a team uses an asset to pick a player. The league gives you that asset -- a free pick. But picks don't all have the same value. A higher pick can be traded for lower picks -- multiple lower picks.

Using Pelton's chart as a rough guide, I'll make what should be kind of a dramatic point: the pick used to take Kemba walker, a #9 pick, can be traded for all the picks used to take Nikola Jokic, Khris Middleton, Jimmy Butler & Rudy Gobert.

Not bad, huh? Oh... & one other guy who's not on this list: Draymond Green, taken at #35.

Now, obviously, you don't always get Jimmy Butler with the #30 pick! :)

Then again, you don't always get Kemba Walker with the #9 pick, do you?

Sometimes, with the #9, you get Andre Iguodala, Ike Diogu, Patrick O'Bryant, Joakim Noah, D.J. Augustin, DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward, Andre Drummond, Trey Burke, Noah Vonleh, Frank Kaminsky, Jakob Poeltl, Dennis Smith, or Kevin Knox. In fact, along with Kemba, that's everybody taken at #9 from 2004 through 2018.

There are some very good players on that list! Would you agree that the 7 best are Iguodala, Noah, Augustin, DeRozan, Walker, Hayward & Drummond.

Would you rather have taken those 7 guys (plus all the stiffs chosen at #9 from '04-18 -- you get those too), or would you rather have taken the 4 low-picked guys on the all-star squad (Jokic, Middleton, Butler &, Gobert) along with Draymond Green & up to 30 other guys (it having been a 5 picks to equal the value of 1 #9) I could come up with from '04 to '18 who were taken at one of those picks* (starting, obviously, with Pascal Siakam)?

Note that before I go any further, it's the #9s (Iguodala, Noah, Augustin, DeRozan, Walker, Hayward & Drummond) vs. the trade downs (Jokic, Middleton, Butler, Gobert, Draymond & Siakam) plus:

I get to go further: 2017 -- Kyle Kuzma, Josh Hart. 2018 -- Omari Spellman, Mitchell Robinson (trading #39 & #41 for #36 -- or just taking him instead of Spellman, which I know you'd have done, Zards). 2015 -- Larry Nance, Malcolm Brogdon, Pat Connaughton. 2014 -- Jerami Grant & Kyle Anderson (in addition to Jokic, obviously). 2011 -- Davis Bertans. 2010 -- Lance Stephenson. 2009 -- DeMarre Carroll, Jonas Jerebko, Patrick Beverly. 2008 -- trade 41 & 39 to get DeAndre Jordan @35. 2007 -- Aaron Afflalo. 2006 -- Sergio Rodriguez. 2004 -- Sasha Vujejic, Anderson Varajao.

All of those guys. Every one. Is it starting to come clear?


Yea I don't know about that. If this were true the Celtics should be in a lot better position after having a 6 pick draft and multiple 4 pick drafts. In 2016 I'm sure the Celtics wish they could've traded their 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, and 58 picks for 11th pick Sabonis. Or even 9th pick Potl. Or 7th Murray or 6th Hield. Higher picks just have more value and retain trade value. That's how guys like Lamb, Potl, DSJ can be sold as intriguing young piece in trades for stars. Gordon/Aminu for CP3. Kwame for Butler. If you miss on a high pick all is not lost.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#982 » by payitforward » Wed Jun 3, 2020 6:35 pm

Shoe wrote:Yea I don't know about that. If this were true the Celtics should be in a lot better position after having a 6 pick draft and multiple 4 pick drafts. In 2016 I'm sure the Celtics wish they could've traded their 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, and 58 picks for 11th pick Sabonis. Or even 9th pick Potl. Or 7th Murray or 6th Hield. Higher picks just have more value and retain trade value. That's how guys like Lamb, Potl, DSJ can be sold as intriguing young piece in trades for stars. Gordon/Aminu for CP3. Kwame for Butler. If you miss on a high pick all is not lost.

What do you mean by "if this were true?" Is there something in my post that is not true? I don't think so. You might as well say that if someone trades me $20 for $10, it was a bad deal if I lose the $20 while walking home. Next guy shouldn't take that deal!

As to your point about the Celtics, I don't get it. For one thing, yes they are in a pretty good position. For another, what if they'd made that trade & picked someone not Sabonis?

If you know the future you can always make the right pick. Duh. But that's my whole point. You cannot know the future.

If teams knew the future, picks would be taken in the exact order of how good their careers turn out to be. Only that isn't exactly how it works out, is it? Of the 29 players picked before Jimmy Butler, 28 of them aren't as good as Jimmy Butler.

That's an extreme case, but name any draft whatever & I'll show you basically the same phenomenon -- not just for 1 player but for most players in that draft. Hell, I could give you plenty of examples that would make R2 picks look more valuable than the top picks in the draft.

What if Charlotte came to Golden State on the night of the 2012 draft & said, "Let's swap picks -- I'll give you #2; you give me #35." Then, using your logic, GS gets MK-G & Charlotte gets Draymond?

In other words, sorry, but no. Over time, trading down from pick #4-14 to multiple lower picks has proved to get more value. Period. Is there a year that's an exception? Of course!! How could there not be? Just as there are years when the #35 pick is better than 3/4 of the guys picked in the lottery. Exceptions prove nothing. Or, rather, they prove the rule.

You do make one interesting point, however -- sometimes a high pick who doesn't play well retains trade value for a little while, & that's a secondary benefit I hadn't considered. Good to bring it up!

It means something -- but not much.

To take your example, Kwame for Caron was good. I think I'd still rather have traded the #1 for, say the #3 & the #31 that year. Wouldn't you?

But let's look at what I was pointing at directly If you picked from #4-14 in 2001, you got one of

Eddy Curry
Jason Richardson
Shane Battier
Eddie Griffin
DeSagana Diop
Rodney White
Joe Johnson
Kedrick Brown
Vladimir Radmanovic
Richard Jefferson
or, Troy Murphy

Me, I'd rather have traded down for multiple picks & gotten more than one of the following players:

Zach Randolph (#19)
Gerakd Wallace (#25)
Samuel Dalembert (#26)
Tony Parker (#29)
Gilbert Arenas (#31)

For that matter, I'd say that 6 of the 11 guys who went from #4-14 weren't as good as Mehmet Okur, wouldn't you? Not that Okur was all that good. But he did play I think 10 years in the league after being picked #38. Only 33 picks below Eddy Curry & 31 below Eddie Griffin.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#983 » by DCZards » Wed Jun 3, 2020 8:03 pm

payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:Yea I don't know about that. If this were true the Celtics should be in a lot better position after having a 6 pick draft and multiple 4 pick drafts. In 2016 I'm sure the Celtics wish they could've traded their 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, and 58 picks for 11th pick Sabonis. Or even 9th pick Potl. Or 7th Murray or 6th Hield. Higher picks just have more value and retain trade value. That's how guys like Lamb, Potl, DSJ can be sold as intriguing young piece in trades for stars. Gordon/Aminu for CP3. Kwame for Butler. If you miss on a high pick all is not lost.

What do you mean by "if this were true?" Is there something in my post that is not true? I don't think so. You might as well say that if someone trades me $20 for $10, it was a bad deal if I lose the $20 while walking home. Next guy shouldn't take that deal!

As to your point about the Celtics, I don't get it. For one thing, yes they are in a pretty good position. For another, what if they'd made that trade & picked someone not Sabonis?

If you know the future you can always make the right pick. Duh. But that's my whole point. You cannot know the future.

If teams knew the future, picks would be taken in the exact order of how good their careers turn out to be. Only that isn't exactly how it works out, is it? Of the 29 players picked before Jimmy Butler, 28 of them aren't as good as Jimmy Butler.

That's an extreme case, but name any draft whatever & I'll show you basically the same phenomenon -- not just for 1 player but for most players in that draft. Hell, I could give you plenty of examples that would make R2 picks look more valuable than the top picks in the draft.

What if Charlotte came to Golden State on the night of the 2012 draft & said, "Let's swap picks -- I'll give you #2; you give me #35." Then, using your logic, GS gets MK-G & Charlotte gets Draymond?

In other words, sorry, but no. Over time, trading down from pick #4-14 to multiple lower picks has proved to get more value. Period. Is there a year that's an exception? Of course!! How could there not be? Just as there are years when the #35 pick is better than 3/4 of the guys picked in the lottery. Exceptions prove nothing. Or, rather, they prove the rule.

You do make one interesting point, however -- sometimes a high pick who doesn't play well retains trade value for a little while, & that's a secondary benefit I hadn't considered. Good to bring it up!

It means something -- but not much.

To take your example, Kwame for Caron was good. I think I'd still rather have traded the #1 for, say the #3 & the #31 that year. Wouldn't you?

But let's look at what I was pointing at directly If you picked from #4-14 in 2001, you got one of

Eddy Curry
Jason Richardson
Shane Battier
Eddie Griffin
DeSagana Diop
Rodney White
Joe Johnson
Kedrick Brown
Vladimir Radmanovic
Richard Jefferson
or, Troy Murphy

Me, I'd rather have traded down for multiple picks & gotten more than one of the following players:

Zach Randolph (#19)
Gerakd Wallace (#25)
Samuel Dalembert (#26)
Tony Parker (#29)
Gilbert Arenas (#31)

For that matter, I'd say that 6 of the 11 guys who went from #4-14 weren't as good as Mehmet Okur, wouldn't you? Not that Okur was all that good. But he did play I think 10 years in the league after being picked #38. Only 33 picks below Eddy Curry & 31 below Eddie Griffin.


PIF, aren't you doing exactly what you accuse Shoe of doing--using hindsight to make your case? As you say, "if you know the future you can always make the right pick." So yes, in hindsight trading down and taking a Parker, Arenas and/or Randolph would have been the smart move.

But as you point out, "you cannot know the future." So you might have traded down in the 2001 draft and instead of drafting Shane Battier (#6) or Joe Johnson (#10) you might have drafted two or more of the following players: Kirk Haston (#16), Jeryl Sasser (#22), Raul Lopez (#24), Omar Cook ( #32) and Jeff Trepagnier (#36).
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#984 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 12:45 am

That's absolutely correct, Zards -- you can strike out if they give you only 1 swing, you can strike out if you get three chances, & you can strike out if you get... you name it: say, a dozen chances.

But, you tell me, of the three which is the most likely situation to lead to a strike out?

In other words, no, I'm not using hindsight; I'm using history along with the (obvious) fact that you're more likely to flip heads if you have multiple chances to flip the coin than if you only have one chance -- & that is true even if the chance is the same each time, as it is, 50%.

Of course, if the benefit of flipping heads -- what you get if you do so -- changes, & you get less if it takes you say 3 times, that would change things.

But, in general, year to year, over & over again, with only very rare exceptions, getting a single player from 4-14 simply does not get you a better player than you'd get with 2 picks lower down.

& that is what I've shown: it's not possible to disagree with that without simply denying the facts in front of your eyes. Take another look at your own list of all stars w/ guys taken 1-3 removed.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#985 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 1:07 am

Actually, let me make it even simpler. Suppose you have the #56 pick in the draft, & (for some reason) there are only 5 players left to be picked in the world. That's it. You know the 5 guys' names. & for some reason you also know that 2 of those 5 are really good & the other 3 are terrible -- but you don't know which two are the good ones!

You have a 2 out of 5 chance (40%) of getting one of the good ones with your #56 pick, right?

Now, let's suppose another team owns the last 4 picks in the draft -- 57-60 -- & that GM comes to you and says, "Look there is 1 guy I want out of those 5 -- only 1 -- & I don't want to take any chance of missing him: so, I'll give you my 4 picks # 57-60 for your pick #56. That way I know I get the guy I want."

Do you make the trade? Yes, obviously you do. Because, now you have a 100% chance of getting 1 of the 2 good players -- &, in fact, you have an 80% chance of getting both of them! After all, that other GM may be wrong about the 1 guy he wants -- he may want one of the players who isn't good.

Now, if this isn't clear enough (actually just looking at your own list off all stars after I took out guys picked 1-3 should suffice), then it's on me for not being able to explain how randomness & statistics work. In which case, I'll just recommend a good popular book on the subject: this is a really good read -- https://www.amazon.com/Drunkards-Walk-Randomness-Rules-Lives/dp/0307275175/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=drunkards+walk&qid=1591232757&sr=8-1
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#986 » by Shoe » Thu Jun 4, 2020 12:23 pm

payitforward wrote:
Shoe wrote:Yea I don't know about that. If this were true the Celtics should be in a lot better position after having a 6 pick draft and multiple 4 pick drafts. In 2016 I'm sure the Celtics wish they could've traded their 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, and 58 picks for 11th pick Sabonis. Or even 9th pick Potl. Or 7th Murray or 6th Hield. Higher picks just have more value and retain trade value. That's how guys like Lamb, Potl, DSJ can be sold as intriguing young piece in trades for stars. Gordon/Aminu for CP3. Kwame for Butler. If you miss on a high pick all is not lost.

What do you mean by "if this were true?" Is there something in my post that is not true? I don't think so. You might as well say that if someone trades me $20 for $10, it was a bad deal if I lose the $20 while walking home. Next guy shouldn't take that deal!

As to your point about the Celtics, I don't get it. For one thing, yes they are in a pretty good position. For another, what if they'd made that trade & picked someone not Sabonis?

If you know the future you can always make the right pick. Duh. But that's my whole point. You cannot know the future.

If teams knew the future, picks would be taken in the exact order of how good their careers turn out to be. Only that isn't exactly how it works out, is it? Of the 29 players picked before Jimmy Butler, 28 of them aren't as good as Jimmy Butler.

That's an extreme case, but name any draft whatever & I'll show you basically the same phenomenon -- not just for 1 player but for most players in that draft. Hell, I could give you plenty of examples that would make R2 picks look more valuable than the top picks in the draft.

What if Charlotte came to Golden State on the night of the 2012 draft & said, "Let's swap picks -- I'll give you #2; you give me #35." Then, using your logic, GS gets MK-G & Charlotte gets Draymond?

In other words, sorry, but no. Over time, trading down from pick #4-14 to multiple lower picks has proved to get more value. Period. Is there a year that's an exception? Of course!! How could there not be? Just as there are years when the #35 pick is better than 3/4 of the guys picked in the lottery. Exceptions prove nothing. Or, rather, they prove the rule.

You do make one interesting point, however -- sometimes a high pick who doesn't play well retains trade value for a little while, & that's a secondary benefit I hadn't considered. Good to bring it up!

It means something -- but not much.

To take your example, Kwame for Caron was good. I think I'd still rather have traded the #1 for, say the #3 & the #31 that year. Wouldn't you?

But let's look at what I was pointing at directly If you picked from #4-14 in 2001, you got one of

Eddy Curry
Jason Richardson
Shane Battier
Eddie Griffin
DeSagana Diop
Rodney White
Joe Johnson
Kedrick Brown
Vladimir Radmanovic
Richard Jefferson
or, Troy Murphy

Me, I'd rather have traded down for multiple picks & gotten more than one of the following players:

Zach Randolph (#19)
Gerakd Wallace (#25)
Samuel Dalembert (#26)
Tony Parker (#29)
Gilbert Arenas (#31)

For that matter, I'd say that 6 of the 11 guys who went from #4-14 weren't as good as Mehmet Okur, wouldn't you? Not that Okur was all that good. But he did play I think 10 years in the league after being picked #38. Only 33 picks below Eddy Curry & 31 below Eddie Griffin.


Randolph was a cancer and Wallace was unprotected in the Bobcat expansion draft. It's the problem with just pointing out these 2nd round picks that play for a couple teams before coming into their own.

But thank you for helping me make my point PIF.

Curry packaged by the Bulls in a trade for a 2006 first (LaMarcus Aldridge) and a 2007 first (Joakim Noah)
Battier traded for the 8th pick in 2006. Richardson traded for the 8th pick in 2007. Joe Johnson traded for Boris Diaw, a 2006 first, a 2008 first.
Jefferson traded for the previous years 6th pick.
Kedrick Brown traded 2 years later for Ricky Davis.

Lottery picks still provided more value for their drafted team than Randolph, Wallace, Arenas, Okur.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#987 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 3:51 pm

Just like your point about retaining trade value, these are valid points as well.

I'm not interested in an argument.

I'm saying a simple & irrefutable thing: after pick #3, the best players -- the guys who turn out to play best in the league -- are pretty evenly spread through a big swath of the rest of the draft. Thus, Zards' own list of all stars (once guys taken 1-3 are removed) shows players fairly evenly distributed in that way.

When you take into account the obvious fact that a higher pick can be traded for multiple lower picks (not talking players in this case -- talking picks: i.e. the way NO & Atlanta traded picks in last year's draft), it becomes obvious that over time taking 2 lower picks will get you more value than taking 1 higher pick (after #3).

When you also take into account the effect of the unknown, of chance, that extra value becomes even greater -- because, as is obvious, 2 throws of the dice is better than 1. No matter where a guy is picked (including 1-3) there's a chance he doesn't work out.

The points you make, OTOH, are not about how good the players are who are taken over some spread of picks. Your point is about a different subject -- the fact that for some period of time after a draft, GMs tend to value guys taken high, independent of how well they are performing.

This is true. You give some examples, & agreeing with you I could give some more examples: hell, we have one on our team -- Jerome Robinson. This is a pretty common human phenomenon, I'd say -- wouldn't you? The more we have invested in something, the more we want it to work out well.

The #1-3 picks have a better chance of being worth their pick position, but... it's not a lot better chance!

Since 2006, 39 players have been taken either #1, #2 or #3. At least 20 of the 39 have shown themselves to be either nothing special or absolutely awful or somewhere in between.

Only 5 of the 39 taken from 1-3 turned out to be the best player taken in their year (Durant, Davis, Towns, Simmons & Doncic). For whatever reason.

Only 10 have turned out to be among the best 3 players taken in their year (the 5 previously listed plus Harden, Wall, Irving & Embiid). Add Brad if you like to make it 11 (I have him behind Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard & Draymond -- 4th best that year -- but it's a minor point).

That's the way it is. Look at #4-14 (my actual subject), & it's worse. A lot worse.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#988 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 4:15 pm

Shoe wrote:...thank you for helping me make my point PIF....

I didn't, but to emphasize that I'm not interested in an argument, now I will!

Shoe wrote:...Curry packaged by the Bulls in a trade for a 2006 first (LaMarcus Aldridge) and a 2007 first (Joakim Noah) ...

Gotta be one of the best trades ever!

But, you could have strengthened your point by mentioning that the Bulls proceeded to trade that #2 pick that got Aldridge -- traded down -- for the #4 pick and (I think...) Viktor Khryapa.

Then they took Tyrus Thomas w/ the #4 pick :)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#989 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 10:26 pm

Tell me how you like this list of 16 players: Andrea Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Greg Oden, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo, Hasheem Thabeet, Evan Turner, Derrick Williams, Enes Kanter, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Anthony Bennett, Otto Porter, Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, D’Angelo Russell & Jahlil Okafor.

Not all of them are active, obviously, but if we had the #1, 2 or 3 pick in this year's draft would you trade it for any of them? Which ones?
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#990 » by payitforward » Thu Jun 4, 2020 11:38 pm

That's 16 of the 30 players taken from #1-3 in the 10 drafts from 2006-2015.

Here are the other 14: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin, James Harden, John Wall, Derrick Favors, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, Bradley Beal, Victor Oladipo, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#991 » by Ruzious » Fri Jun 5, 2020 7:33 pm

Shoe wrote:
Read on Twitter


On tankathon per 36 it says Poku is averaging 12.2 rebounds. His frame looks weak but if can rebound at a decent rate he can have an NBA career. I don't think he's a Jianlian, Vesely, Bender etc. but who knows.

Good call, Shoe. I guess because he's another 7 footer with AP as his initials, I overlooked him. I can see the Wiz considering taking him, but I don't think they will. One thing that stood at to me watching the videos here http://www.tankathon.com/players/aleksej-pokusevski he's got great natural body control. There's a couple of times where he runs a ball down, beats someone to it, and changes directions without hesitation - one of them, he stops on a dime, turns, and easily makes a 3. Seems to have broad enough shoulders to eventually fill out on top. Love his quick passing skills and quick hands on D. Obviously, he'll get over-powered early in his career, but he's the youngest player in the draft.

Much more decisive and quick reacting than the flops you mentioned - with a higher BBIQ. Definitely a 4 now. We'll see how he fills out. I'm a fan, because he's a player.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#992 » by payitforward » Sat Jun 6, 2020 9:57 pm

Kid's extremely talented! Quick feet, quick hands, & a quick head too.

It's always an algorithm between talent & chance. Pokusevski is so young that chance is a big, big factor. He may turn out to be a tremendous NBA player -- the potential is clearly there. But... will it be for the team that drafts him? & if so, when?

I couldn't take him with the 9th pick. If we were trading down, however, he'd be on my list.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#993 » by Shoe » Sun Jun 7, 2020 3:37 am

Ruzious wrote:Good call, Shoe. I guess because he's another 7 footer with AP as his initials, I overlooked him. I can see the Wiz considering taking him, but I don't think they will. One thing that stood at to me watching the videos here http://www.tankathon.com/players/aleksej-pokusevski he's got great natural body control. There's a couple of times where he runs a ball down, beats someone to it, and changes directions without hesitation - one of them, he stops on a dime, turns, and easily makes a 3. Seems to have broad enough shoulders to eventually fill out on top. Love his quick passing skills and quick hands on D. Obviously, he'll get over-powered early in his career, but he's the youngest player in the draft.

Much more decisive and quick reacting than the flops you mentioned - with a higher BBIQ. Definitely a 4 now. We'll see how he fills out. I'm a fan, because he's a player.


This is a great vid of his highlights and lowlights. Tankathon has him #10 on their board but I've seen him mocked in the late first too. There are a lot of guys in the draft who can play right away with Wall and Beal they might not go with him although he is one of the few internationals.

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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#994 » by payitforward » Sun Jun 7, 2020 6:06 pm

Tankathon actually has Poku going #17 on their mock -- though, yes, they rank him #10 among prospects.

They rank R.J. Hampton #9 on their big board. But their mock has us taking Okoro at #9: they rate him #13 on the big board -- 1 spot before... Tyler Bey. With our #37 pick from the Bulls they have us taking Oturu (that's also where their big board ranks him).

If you take their big board & mock to be more or less accurate rankings, they present a strong argument for... guess what? :) -- trading down!

Thus, if we traded our #9 for the Celtics #s 17, 26, 46 & their R2 pick next year (about an even trade, value-wise), we could take the players that Tankathon ranks #10 (Poku -- they have him picked at that #17 spot), the guy they rank #14 (Tyler Bey -- they project him being picked at #26) & the guy they rank #26 (Reggie Perry -- he goes #48 on their mock). Plus we'd have an extra pick next year.

Poku, Bey & Perry plus a pick next year vs. Okoru & Oturu. Which package would you rather have? (i.e. assuming the trade w/ Boston could be made)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#995 » by payitforward » Sun Jun 7, 2020 6:51 pm

Of course, that's a little unfair, I realize. The real comparo should be if we kept our picks & simply used them to pick the 2 highest ranked players on their big board whom they project to be available at our spots?

In which case, presumably we take R.J. Hampton & Reggie Perry.

Since we get Perry in all these scenarios, what it comes down to is this:

Either R.J Hampton or else Poku, Bey & a R2 pick next year.

Which way would you go?

Now, Bey might be gone at #26... so call it:

Either R.J Hampton or else Poku, BPA@#26 (e.g. Jalen Smith or Paul Reed?) & a R2 pick next year.

Again, what would your choice be?

(Remember: we get Reggie Perry in either case.)
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#996 » by nate33 » Mon Jun 8, 2020 12:15 pm

I was very impressed by that Poku-man video. The criticisms about his lazy defense didn't concern me much. It looked to me that, for the most part, he was just dog tired, not lazy. It was more a lack of conditioning than an indifference to the importance of defense.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#997 » by payitforward » Mon Jun 8, 2020 1:49 pm

"Poku-man" :)

One question -- if I'm right, Poku plays for Olympiacos B (i.e. their 2d level team) -- is that right? i.e., he's not playing top-level Euro-ball?

In that league, his FG% is .400. Although, in his highlights, we see every 3-point attempt swish through the hoop, in fact his 3-point % is .321 -- meaning that his efg% = .481.

Now... he's only 18, & he's obviously very gifted, but... is this kid ready -- in any sense of the word -- to play in the NBA? Hard for me to believe....

I wouldn't even consider him at #9. If I were a GM with only 1 R1 pick, I don't think I'd consider him anywhere in the first 20 picks. No matter how great his potential is. To me it would seem likely that by the time he realized that potential he'd be with another team -- & I'd be fired!

For these reasons, & based on history, I predict that the Knicks will pick him at #6, pushing one of Hayes, Okongwu or Haliburton down to us.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#998 » by DCZards » Tue Jun 9, 2020 5:03 pm

I really liked what I saw from Saddiq Bey this past season.

Here's are excerpts from a Sporting News article about him. Full article and video is at link below.

There probably will be a dozen or more players selected before Villanova forward Saddiq Bey in the NBA Draft this October. It depends on how smart and bold the people making the picks turn out to be, which means it probably will be more.

In a few years, a number of the players drafted will inspire puzzled looks or laughter and the inevitable question: They picked him over Saddiq?

In his two seasons at Villanova, Bey did not make first-team All-American or average 20 points. He did not play in a Final Four, although there’s a fair possibility he would have if the NCAA Tournament had been contested in March 2020.

What Bey did, though, was demonstrate an inherent toughness that helped Villanova quickly rebuild after the loss of the top six players from the 2018 NCAA championship team and claim a share of the 2020 Big East regular-season title.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/villanova-forward-saddiq-beys-commitment-to-stay-in-nba-draft-will-make-some-gm-look-very-smart/1s7uc63kax0bm1p39mqz5p6dt5
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#999 » by Ruzious » Tue Jun 9, 2020 5:55 pm

DCZards wrote:I really liked what I saw from Saddiq Bey this past season.

Here's are excerpts from a Sporting News article about him. Full article and video is at link below.

There probably will be a dozen or more players selected before Villanova forward Saddiq Bey in the NBA Draft this October. It depends on how smart and bold the people making the picks turn out to be, which means it probably will be more.

In a few years, a number of the players drafted will inspire puzzled looks or laughter and the inevitable question: They picked him over Saddiq?

In his two seasons at Villanova, Bey did not make first-team All-American or average 20 points. He did not play in a Final Four, although there’s a fair possibility he would have if the NCAA Tournament had been contested in March 2020.

What Bey did, though, was demonstrate an inherent toughness that helped Villanova quickly rebuild after the loss of the top six players from the 2018 NCAA championship team and claim a share of the 2020 Big East regular-season title.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/villanova-forward-saddiq-beys-commitment-to-stay-in-nba-draft-will-make-some-gm-look-very-smart/1s7uc63kax0bm1p39mqz5p6dt5

Every team in the NBA likely wants a player (or 2) like Saddiq Bey, because he's got that 6'8 220 size that allows him to switch on to any type of player, and he's a great 3 point shooter with decent athleticism and good toughness. Cameron Johnson was the 11th pick last draft at age 23, and I think Bey is a better all-around player.
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Re: 2020 Draft 

Post#1000 » by Ruzious » Tue Jun 9, 2020 6:06 pm

payitforward wrote:Tankathon actually has Poku going #17 on their mock -- though, yes, they rank him #10 among prospects.

They rank R.J. Hampton #9 on their big board. But their mock has us taking Okoro at #9: they rate him #13 on the big board -- 1 spot before... Tyler Bey. With our #37 pick from the Bulls they have us taking Oturu (that's also where their big board ranks him).

If you take their big board & mock to be more or less accurate rankings, they present a strong argument for... guess what? :) -- trading down!

Thus, if we traded our #9 for the Celtics #s 17, 26, 46 & their R2 pick next year (about an even trade, value-wise), we could take the players that Tankathon ranks #10 (Poku -- they have him picked at that #17 spot), the guy they rank #14 (Tyler Bey -- they project him being picked at #26) & the guy they rank #26 (Reggie Perry -- he goes #48 on their mock). Plus we'd have an extra pick next year.

Poku, Bey & Perry plus a pick next year vs. Okoru & Oturu. Which package would you rather have? (i.e. assuming the trade w/ Boston could be made)

Did you include our #37 pick in the trade to Boston?
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